Morrison majority for Australian government more or less confirmed

Results are slow to come in for marginal seats but the ABC has now called the election as a clear (but slim) majority for the return of a Scott Morrison led government.

ABC News:  Election results see Scott Morrison reach 76 seats to win majority government

The Coalition is predicted to win 78 seats in the House of Representatives — a result consecutive opinion polls and political commentators failed to predict.

The seat of Chisholm in Melbourne’s east delivered the Coalition its final required seat, with Liberal candidate Gladys Liu winning despite a small swing to the Labor Party.

Reaching majority government — 76 seats out of 150 — means the Coalition will not have to rely on independent MPs to pass controversial legislation provided no MPs cross the floor.

The seats of BassCowanLilley and Macquarieare still in doubt according to the ABC election computer.

The West Australian seat of Cowan is held by Labor’s Ann Aly, who as of 10:55pm (AEST) had 50.5 per cent of the preference count.

In the Tasmanian seat of Bass, Labor MP Ross Hart is trailing Liberal candidate Bridget Archer, who has had a 5.8 per cent swing towards her.

In the seat of Macquarie, Liberal candidate Sarah Richards was leading Labor incumbent Susan Templeman by 151 votes at 10:55pm (AEST).

A New Zealand view:

I have heard similar mentioned elsewhere – the Australian election result proves that if policies are too ‘progressive’ or radical the chances of winning an election are slim.

I think it is much more complex than that.

It depends on the policies being proposed  – how they are presented and how far they try to change things.

But it also depends on the people who are promoting the policies, especially party leaders. And how election campaigns are conducted is also important, especially in close electorates.

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15 Comments

  1. David

     /  22nd May 2019

    Witness the last congressional election where Dems did really well when they distanced themselves from Pelosi and progressive policies.

    Reply
    • Patzcuaro

       /  22nd May 2019

      That is a little simplistic, the old dinosaur Tony Abbott is out of a job because he didn’t listen to his electorate. Progressive will do better in areas that have the luxury to look past today’s necessities. AOC and other progressives were elected in the last cycle of US elections as well.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  22nd May 2019

        Abbott job history is interesting
        Out of the seminary and didnt make the priesthood
        Now out of parliament after being out of the Lodge ( Pms house in Canberra)

        Three times -what does that say about square peg in round holes. he should have stuck at his second career as a journalist

        Reply
      • David

         /  22nd May 2019

        As Pelosi said an ashtray could have won AOCs electorate as long as it was Democrat.
        It was the mid west candidate’s that beat out Republicans and won in areas Trump won by going centrist and repudiating the far left

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  22nd May 2019

          So 41 seats were from mid west ?
          The dark blue is Democrat gain, so more like 10 or so from mid west including texas

          Without some states gerrymandering it would have been more . yes the Democrats use that too, but in a state like Maryland democrats have 65% of the vote anyway , The Republicans gerrymander swing states like North Carolina or Wisconsin where they are only 50-55% majority

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  22nd May 2019

            This is a better Map, with each seat of equal area hexagons, pre and post election .
            7 seats alone flipped in California , especially in previous conservative heartland Orange County

            Reply
  2. Duker

     /  22nd May 2019

    Liberals won by having very little policy of their own outside instant tax cuts and targeted ‘infrastructure’ spending in marginal seats. In addition they were relentlessly negative against labour, ignored their own ‘Liberal’ brand and only focussed on Morrison.
    Overall they acted like a party out of government who were desperate to win.

    Reply
    • Pink David

       /  22nd May 2019

      So, in summary, the Liberals ran a much smarter campaign than Labor, and won.

      Reply
  3. Blazer

     /  22nd May 2019

    little or no policy worked for the Nats.

    Reply
    • David

       /  22nd May 2019

      The legislative agenda of Ardern is putting them to shame

      Reply
  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  22nd May 2019

    Pagani is absolutely correct that the “liberal” Left elite are concerned about issues that have either no relevance or whose proposed solutions are directly and immediately harmful to ordinary working people. They think they can placate the latter by throwing welfare at them but working folk don’t want to surrender their pride and self-respect for “free” money.

    Reply
    • Gerrit

       /  22nd May 2019

      Would add that working folk don’t like being “boned” to pay for the endless welfare through ever increases in taxation.

      The inequality between the tax paying workers and the non tax paying, non working welfare recipient is decreasing and as such, there will come a time when no-one will want to go to work.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  22nd May 2019

        we can’t all be…bankers.

        Reply
        • Gerrit

           /  22nd May 2019

          Too true…the state needs to keep this in mind and protect the tax paying productive sector.

          Not seeing much encouragement to support the SME tax paying sector from the government.

          Reply
    • harryk

       /  22nd May 2019

      Please read my comment on Lithium mining in Australia on the other thread, and plans to use it to develop an industrial chemicals industry. That’s jobs for the future. I’d expect qualified Kiwis to be a part of that, just as the knockabout Kiwis were part of the exploration and tenement speculation phase. Lithium isn’t a renewable but Li Hydroxide is essential to the State mandated China EV market. Hybrid and all electric boats will replace diesel in the commercial fishing industry over time and NZ owner operators will undoubtably go this way too. This is one example of win-win where greens, small business and organised labour can have common interests – it’s not as black and white as Mr Pagani and the Canberra centric media here assume. Also read AMEC’s 2018 report on developing a Lithium industry in West Oz.

      Reply

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