Majority of Americans think Trump will win next year’s election

It is 17 months until the next US election, and a lot could change in that time.

What has already changed is expectations of Trump’s chances for a second term. He defeated the odds and defied many pundits by first winning the Republican nomination, and then winning the 2016 presidential election.

Next year he is unlikely to be underestimated. He is likely to rate his own chances much more than last time.

But a poll this far out from the election, with a large number of potential opponents jostling for attention and support. Until the Trump’s Democrat opponent is known, and before they show how good a candidate they are (and before Trump works out his derogatory attack lines), the polled public won’t really have much idea what Trump’s actual chances are.

Trump continues to lag in ‘approval’ polls by around 10% give or take undramatic variations.

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38 Comments

  1. David

     /  7th June 2019

    If Biden gets the nomination I would put money on Trump winning. If the economy carries on as it is Trump will win.
    God wouldnt it be so much fun having another 4 years of Trump, remember how dull and utterly boring Obama was..watch him speak without a teleprompter then watch a Trump rally, I would vote Trump just for the laughs.

    Reply
    • David

       /  7th June 2019

      Just hilarious.

      Reply
      • Corkty

         /  7th June 2019

        Uncle Joe just couldn’t compete with this originality. Some of Trumpy’s quips are worthy of top shelf stand-up comedy.

        Another four years of Trumpy is just what’s needed to see snowflakes completely lose the plot. That will be his finest hour.

        Reply
    • Pink David

       /  7th June 2019

      “If Biden gets the nomination I would put money on Trump winning. ”

      The bookies are offering 11/10 for Trump’s win.

      Reply
    • Duker

       /  7th June 2019

      Obama without a teleprompter?

      That was a rally in 2016.
      So you are saying Trump is so great because he doesnt use one . Just another of his lies, which stooges like you pick up as though its true

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  7th June 2019

        What marks Trump out is that he ad libs so often despite his teleprompters. He’s generally stilted when he’s reading something out but frequently departs from the script with obvious pure Trumpesque blurts. That’s how he winds up with rambling addresses. As for dealing with reporters’s questions he just says whatever pops into his head. He’s not bothered by facts or whether he actually understands the question.

        That beat up over the NHS looked like a classic example. Some reporter asked him whether the NHS was on the table during his trade talks. Trump obviously had no idea what the NHS was. So he ignored what he’d been asked & just blurted out a generality that everything’s on the table during trade talks.

        He later corrected himself when someone pointed out what the NHS was & said he didn’t “see the NHS as part of trade”.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  7th June 2019

          Trump specifically said during Campaign that teleprompters shouldnt be used. I bet he doesnt say that anymore.

          Pleeese you are so uninformed….as stooges commonly are
          The reason why the NHS was mentioned was the US ambassador , a Trump ally, who would be at the center of these sort of discussion specifically targeted the NHS in a new ‘ Free trade’ deal.

          Yes NHS is part of Trade talks , as Pharmac was targeted by US in the TPA talks for NZ.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  7th June 2019

            The NHS is a lot more than drug companies. The UK still has to focus on keeping costs low for electoral support. And Trump pays bugger all attention to advisers & allies. That’s why they all end up gone before long.

            Reply
          • Gezza

             /  7th June 2019

            Trump specifically said during Campaign that teleprompters shouldnt be used. I bet he doesnt say that anymore.

            You say that like you think it would matter to Trump? The guy who doesn’t give a toss that what he said half a day earlier is on video & is the opposite of what he’s saying now, & whose supporters don’t give a toss either.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  7th June 2019

              You and I know that, but David thinks it’s pearls of truth and wisdom.
              The same CNN report goes further and looks at those don’t like Trump and good portion specifically mentioned his dishonesty…it’s amazing really

            • Gezza

               /  7th June 2019

              Well, yes, but that’s because he successfully panders to David’s prejudices, so therefore David likes him because probably sees him as a “winner” & ignores his rampant lying & bullying & his narcissistic personality & his wilful ignorance.

              Whereas Trump doesn’t pander to your or my prejudices, so we don’t ignore them.

              He still ended up the President of the United States because enuf people in the right places are happy to have their various prejudices pandered to. Most Americans don’t strike me as the deepest thinkers. They’ve been progressively dumbed down for what’s probably the best part of the last century.

              Anerican politics & the upper echelons of their society is a shit heap. So it’s inevitable I reckon that they will often end up with shits at the top of the heap.

  2. The re-election of this corrupt and fundamentally tyrannical president for a second term would be a very sad day.

    America is politically broken and needs a wise, consistent, and compassionate leader who is not only capable of uniting the nation but who leads by example, a leader who champions the principle that no-one is above the law, a leader who puts the nation’s interests before their own self-interest.

    Sadly, I’m not convinced that the Democrats have the capacity or political courage to prevail in the coming elections to win either the presidency or the Senate, and as long as the Republicans continue playing their corrupt game under Senate Majority Leader McConnell, the democratic values that underpin America will continue to be under assault.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  7th June 2019

      You underestimate America’s dislike of the establishment wealthy elite you want to put back in charge.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  7th June 2019

        they are always in charge.

        Trump understands this.

        Reply
      • Griff.

         /  7th June 2019

        You totally ignore two points .
        Trump is supposedly a member of the wealthy elite.
        He has employed the lobbyists for the rich who have taken control of goverment agency’s.
        You believe utter nonsense propaganda and ignore actual reality.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  7th June 2019

          Trump is hated by the wealthy elite. He has put jobs ahead of elitist virtue signalling.

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  7th June 2019

            he put out attack ads against the wealthy when campaigning .

            On election he quickly went to Goldman Sachs/Wall St for affirmation.

            Reply
          • Here is a billionaire member of the establishment wealthy elite who loves Donald trump. Your sweeping generalitiers cut no ice with me.

            https://www.alternet.org/2019/06/heres-how-trump-neighbor-and-supporter-william-koch-avoided-paying-hundreds-of-millions-in-taxes/

            Reply
          • Gezza

             /  7th June 2019

            Trump is hated by the wealthy elite.
            Bollocks. He’s targeted a few wealthy fake & very wealthy celebrities like movie stars. And simply told the real wealthy elite where they’re to put their money if they want to be further rewarded. In the US.

            Reply
          • Duker

             /  7th June 2019

            “He has put jobs ahead of elitist virtue signalling.”

            So the numbers show that more jobs were created in the equivalent period under Obama
            2013: 192,000 per month or 2.3 million
            2014: 250,000 per month or 3 million
            2015: 226,000 per month or 2.7 million
            2016: 187,000 per month or 2.24 million

            Trump has also gone silent recently on GDP growth- as the numbers ( much like here) are now in the 2-3% range

            Reply
        • Gezza

           /  7th June 2019

          The Democrats may have trouble finding a candidate who they can all unite behind, who can articulate a simple & credible strategic & economic direction & who can compete against Trump’s singular ability to grab the media limelight without doing anything but tweet & say or do whatever pops into his head, & still successfully denigrate his opponent.

          Despite Trump’s non-approval ratings, I suspect the yanks are getting used to him & may now be less bothered by his personality. Mr Bone Spurs even seems to have the support of the upper levels of the rank & file military simply because he tells constantly them how great they are.

          I don’t like the guy. But while he might be a loudmouthed, jingoistic con artist, he’s the genuine fake noisy New Yorker article in a society obsessed with “winners” & “losers”, money, celebrities, & flooded with triviality & BS & he’s been achieving some of his objectives, like getting NATO countries to fork out more of their agreed share of defence costs.

          At the moment the Dems have a not very impressive collection of special interest candidates who may not appeal to other special interest groups among them or to “ordinary Americans”, & who seem either fake or really vague beyond being simply anti-Trump at every opportunity.

          He hits some nails right on the head. The guy knows how to project himself as a patriot & how to appeal to different segments of target audiences. The immigration policy Trump’s advocating for, for example, seems rather similar to ours, which ostensibly prioritises immigrants with skills using qualifications & salaries as a proxies for skill level.

          The Democrats immigration policy seems to be all over the place.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  7th June 2019

            Correction: Mr Bone Spurs even seems to have the support of the upper levels AND the rank & file military…

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  7th June 2019

              Except when he does stuff….said he would pull out all troops from Syria that didnt go well with ‘higher ups’ as it was later changed.

            • Gezza

               /  7th June 2019

              Yeah but he pulled some out, I think, Duker, & he left some there, & he’s so unconcerned with changing his mind he ends up somehow getting credit for doing the right thing in the end. The bugger comes out of it ok.

              All that happens is that people go “Aha. He keeps his enemies offside & wary by being unpredictable. Very clever!”

              Sending the carrier group into the Gulf looked like a complete provocation – & the threatening warlike rhetoric poured out of Tehran – but nothing bad has happened because now it’s too risky for them to get a Shiite militia group to attack American personnel or assets as they were plainly signalling a threat to do.

              The guy takes risky moves that sometimes pay off.

            • Duker

               /  7th June 2019

              The Carrier going into the Gulf had been planned , maybe 18 months ago. The existing one left maybe a month or so ago, also on schedule
              The reality was that carrier had a long overhaul in the place they are built in Virginia and was going the long way to its homeport of San Diego. In a month or so it will leave the Gulf , more or less on schedule. Will it likely have some ‘trumped up’ ruse to stay a few weeks around Korea. who knows?

          • Duker

             /  7th June 2019

            “The Democrats may have trouble finding a candidate who they can all unite behind”
            Didnt seem a problem for the republicans last time , even when a large group were Never Trump.
            What will unite them of course will be hatred for Trump , which will include of lot of independents who dont get involved in the party nomination process.
            The independents are key , if they dont swing behind him hes done.
            If the results mirror the swing to democrat candidates in the recent House election, hes done.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  7th June 2019

              If the results mirror the swing to democrat candidates in the recent House election, hes done.

              Yes, that’s the key question. It’s precisely because Trump won last time that I’m not certain he’ll lose in 2020. There are a few risky or clever stunts he could pull off before the election that could win over swing voters. They can’t all be Democrats or Republicans.

      • Alan, you put words into my comment that don’t exist there. I do not advocate for the wealthy establishment elites and it is deceitful for you to claim otherwise.

        As for President Trump, I leave you with this observation written by Joseph Heller over half a century ago

        “It was miraculous. It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue and slander into truth, impotence into abstinence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into honor, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism, and sadism into justice. Anybody could do it; it required no brains at all. It merely required no character.”

        ― Joseph Heller, Catch 22

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  7th June 2019

          The wealthy elites of the east and west coasts are solidly hostile to Trump and pour money and time into trying to destroy him. Your call for unity is a call to return to the days when those who now support Trump could be and were ignored.

          Reply
    • Pink David

       /  7th June 2019

      “America is politically broken and needs a wise, consistent, and compassionate leader who is not only capable of uniting the nation but who leads by example, a leader who champions the principle that no-one is above the law, a leader who puts the nation’s interests before their own self-interest.”

      No it doesn’t. The beautiful thing about the US and it’s Constitution is that this is not required.

      Reply
  3. Zedd

     /  7th June 2019

    mrT in 2020.. about as preferable as ‘Bridges for PM’ (NOT !!) 😦

    Reply
  4. Duker

     /  7th June 2019

    Really?
    Would it surprise you that Trump got 1 mill votes in Massachusetts, Hils got 2 mill.
    2 mill in Illinois for Trump.
    Both Clinton and Trump are from wealthy enclaves in New York
    Trump would be most worried by Biden, as his support for organised labour is long-standing. Trump of course employs illegal migrants and would screw over his casino workers

    Reply
  5. Patzcuaro

     /  8th June 2019

    Geriatric mander

    Reply

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