Newshub/Reid Research poll – June 2019

  • Labour 50.8% (up 3.3)
  • National 37.4% (down 4.2)
  • Greens 6.2% (up 1.1)
  • NZ First 2.8% (Down 0.1)

The poll was conducted between May 29 and June 7 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

The Colmar poll was conducted 4-8 June 2019.

The budget was released on May 29.

Quite different to the 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll – 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll – June 2019

The polling periods were different though.

 

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27 Comments

  1. Gezza

     /  9th June 2019

    Two such wildly different poll results effectively makes them both useless.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  9th June 2019

      Farrar is saying one of them is simply wrong. Problem is we don’t know which.

      Reply
      • I think he’s not necessarily right, and he should know better.

        He quotes the 95% 1 in 20 confidence level – this means that on average 1 in 20 polls could be outside the specified margin of error. Both these polls could be 1 in 20.

        In any case they were taken at different times over a period of high political interest – the budget.

        I think the most likely explanation is that polls can vary more than pollsters and media want to admit, because it doesn’t suit their purposes – pollsters want to be seen as reliable, and media want their polls to be big news stories, when they’re not, they are rough snapshots of voting preferences in some period in the past.

        They are handy but shouldn’t be taken as definitive nor predictions of future voting.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  9th June 2019

          The different polling periods shouldn’y make that much difference because the same factors played up in our miserable msm were there for both periods. We don’t know what the questions were but it looks very unlikely from these two utterly different results that they were even close in either their questions or the groups of those polled.

          They obviously don’t match. 1news reported that a majority of those surveyed by CB expected the economy to perform poorly (38 – 34, or something).

          Nothing polled about this in RR?

          CB never asked what people thought about the Nats embarrassing Labour with some Budget data.

          So … one’s polled apples & the other oranges.

          Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  9th June 2019

          The Labour vote discrepancy is beyond the claimed variance. In the sense that the value plus estimated variance comprises the poll result Farrar is correct that it is a high probability at least one is wrong – about either its value or its estimated variance of it.

          Reply
          • The 95% confidence says that on average 1 in 20 polls may be outside the variance.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  9th June 2019

              To get that variance, both must be. That’s 1 chance in 400.

            • It could be just one – but remember that the polling periods are different so can’t be directly compared.

            • Duker

               /  9th June 2019

              No PG you are looking at a few days polling period difference and wrongly saying that’s the reason.
              Polling theory doesn’t support your claim….it’s just fanciful

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  9th June 2019

              It could just be one but it would be a far smaller probability than 1:20 if it was. At 3x standard deviation the normal probability is about 1:350 and this is at least 4x. Farrar is correct.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  9th June 2019

              I was too generous with the 1:400. It’s really 1:800 because the deviations have to be in opposite directions.

          • Gezza

             /  9th June 2019

            With no 3rd credible poll to compare either against they’re both useless.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  9th June 2019

              Farrar has to say that , he doesn’t want to tell his own clients that we are just witch doctors. It’s useful and likely the best ‘good’ answer. Bad answer is we don’t know what’s wrong

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  9th June 2019

              I would guess the Newshub for two reasons. I don’t think NZF polls so low and they asked other questions that seem likely to condition a response.

          • Blazer

             /  9th June 2019

            ‘It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.’..anon.

            Reply
      • duperez

         /  9th June 2019

        Polling companies poll and publish results. Professional pollster says one of two which comes out is ‘wrong.’ He is not right of course. The results report what people say.

        Now the people might be ‘wrong’ in that they lied, but the pools are true.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  9th June 2019

          The reported results are often an extrapolation of what people said, manipulated to better match the target population in various characteristics.

          So they are not “just what people said”.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  9th June 2019

            That’s true. They do have scaling factors against the numbers that respond.
            They tend to get older people who are more engaged in politics and happy to answer questions. Younger demographic not so much so scaling is required.

            The margin of error is a theoretical one based on sample size, in reality they don’t have that perfect sample of the population that answers the phone, so margin of error is more like 5% plus minus.

            Plus I’d have to check but I think one of the pollsters is a hybrid random phone and online sample while the other is phone only with scaling.

            After being happy to give away budget secrets will Bridges go the other way and fess up on his own polls national does.

            Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  9th June 2019

      They are useless, they must be unless the questions were leading and biassed in both cases. Possible, but not very likely; people are not that stupid. It would be obvious that the questions were leading.

      Both were announced with great fanfare (I saw the One promo) but they can’t both be right, surely.

      Reply
  2. Duker

     /  9th June 2019

    Polling periods different?
    It’s an inconsequential difference in days.

    More interesting would be their raw numbers and the fctors they use to create a representing of the population, especially the groups that are scaled the most.

    Reply
  3. Corky

     /  9th June 2019

    Two polls that cater to everyone’s political bias. As the Aussie election showed…polls maybe becoming a political irrelevance in the modern political era.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  9th June 2019

      Aussie type elections are very difficult to predict using polling…preferential voting means polls don’t ask who your 2nd and 3rd preferences are…and that does matter.
      NZ had an actual party vote election choice which matches the polls question.
      There isn’t a seat by seat process in Australian polls either

      Reply
  4. Blazer

     /  9th June 2019

    black polls.

    Reply
  5. RNZ claims that Labour’s internal polls are something similar to this poll – but Labour would say that, given it favours them.

    National would give no indication how their internal polls compared.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  10th June 2019

      National could say that too ! But dont.
      Farrar hasnt held back before pointing a finger at a specific poll, why is he “only’ saying ‘ One of the two is Wrong’

      It could be his way of saying the TVNZ one os wrong , but national pays me so I cant say that

      Reply
  1. 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll – June 2019 | Your NZ
  2. Polls hardly help Simon bridges | Your NZ

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