Polls hardly help Simon bridges

While one of the poll results just released may give Simon Bridges some confidence he may hang on to his job as National leader the rest of the results remain dismal for him, with his personal results very low (and lower than Judith Collins), and National slumping to 37.4% in one party poll.

The good news:

  • Colmar Brunton has National bouncing back to 44% (up 4), close to Labour on 42%.

The bad news:

  • Colmar Brunton ‘preferred Prime Minister’ – Bridges 5%, Collins 6%, Ardern 45%
  • Reid Research – Labour 50.8%, National 37.4%
  • Reid Research – ‘preferred PM’ – bridges 4.2%, Collins 7.1%, Ardern 49%
  • Reid Research – government performing well 72.5%
  • Reid Research – “Was National right to seek out and release Budget details before Budget Day?” yes 32.6%, no 55.4%

Poll: Most New Zealanders think National was wrong to leak Treasury Budget details

“We did the right thing in exposing weaknesses in the Government,” Bridges said.

“I think it’s something you can’t be driven on polls by.”

His near future as leader may depend on what Natikonal’s internal polls are saying. If they are anything like Colmar Brunton then Bridges may hang on for a while yet, but if they are closer to Reid Research then National may decided that decisive action is required.

At Kiwiblog in A tale of two polls David Farrar focuses on the poll discrepancies and ignores National’s and Bridges’ results and says:

Bottom line is that at least one of those polls is wrong. They can’t both be right.

What he doesn’t say (and can’t really) is how National;s internal polls compare. His Curia Research does these polls for National.

One comment (Captain Mainwaring):

Looks like TV3 did their poll at the teachers union HQ and TV1 did theirs at the RSA.
Polling is expensive, got to do it the cheapest way possible.
But whichever one you believe, Bridges is toast. Lets get it over quickly and cleanly, preferably by QT Tuesday.

Most other references involving Bridges are complaining about Tova O’Brien emphasising the poor polls for Bridges (she and Newshub have habits of trying to make big news out of little numbers) – National nosedives into dreaded 30s, could trigger leadership coup

Matthew Hooton (@MatthewHootonNZ):

Great night for . We all get to choose our poll to suit our spin. Except on one matter.

  1. The leadership situation in reminds me of that in until a couple of weeks ago. It is obvious the current leadership is unsustainable and that there is only one alternative that would be credible to the party membership, media and public.
  2. However, that alternative scares or is opposed on other grounds by sufficient numbers of MPs to prevent the change, keeping the incumbent in the job.
  3. In both cases, the incumbent does not have any genuine support in the party except a very small group of advisors whose own careers depend on hers/his.
  4. But the opposition to the only credible candidate prompts fantasies of other alternatives, and those being speculated about to get their hopes up.
  5. While the MPs waste their time on naval-gazing, the party’s position only gets worse. Moreover no real policy progress can be made because everyone is waiting for the leadership change.
  6. There are even those who say “well, the next election is obviously lost so we are better to let the incumbent take the blame for that and then the successor can take over after that”. This is an insult to those who genuinely see Ardern/Corbyn as needing to be defeated.
  7. Eventually what happens is that the situation gets so bad it forces events. That has happened with the but not with .
  8. Those in the National caucus taking the cynical “Simon can take the fall in 2020” attitude need to search their consciences. They have a responsibility to take whatever steps are needed to maximise the chances of defeating a totally incompetent and increasingly corrupt govt.
  9. Just as Boris Johnson is the candidate most likely to defeat Corbyn, is the candidate most likely to defeat . She has a duty to step up. And the caucus has a duty to back her even if some of them don’t like her very much. More tomorrow.

There will no doubt be more about the National leadership.

See:

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16 Comments

  1. Duker

     /  10th June 2019

    Guess how the Polls did just before last election and who was the closest to actual result?

    From Farrars Blog

    Colmar Brunton gets national Too HIGH and NZF too LOW

    Reid Research on last election performance, when we check an actual election result , gives most confidence to their methods and consistency over the large and small parties.

    Cigar goes to Reid

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  10th June 2019

      Farrar also laid into Colmar Brunton before the last election ( Labour TOO HIGH), hinting that his own Curia and Colmar were reasonably close up till that time
      https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/09/the_diverging_polls.html

      For Political reasons Farrar says one is wrong , when he means Colmar Brunton is the outlier as he didnt hesitate before last election when numbers were the other way round

      Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  10th June 2019

      Nothing in it statistically. They were very close to each other except for NZF. The latter could easily be a turn-out factor as Winston obviously knows how to milk his minor constituency.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  10th June 2019

        Farrar points out the ‘divergence’ – a technical term for outside the stats. His analysis makes this clear thats what he was referring to.

        Reply
      • Gezza

         /  10th June 2019

        Bryce Edwards: One’s a rogue result. Most likely the rogue is CB’s, becos RR is more in line with the trend. Best thing to do is add them together & divide by 2, & go with that. Still looks bad for Simon.

        https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018698862

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  10th June 2019

          Rogue result will show up in next poll – if everything remains same
          But Colmar Brunton wont do another political poll for 2 months or so – thats a real difference in time

          Reply
  2. Zedd

     /  10th June 2019

    such a difference, does not give a credible picture. BUT either way Natl are not looking good as an ‘alternative Govt.’ in 2020 :/

    Reply
  3. lurcher1948

     /  10th June 2019

    Just heard the whiner opps the tempory leader of the opposition Bridges saying Curia show they are leading so why hasn’t Farrar updated the Curia public poll average since 18-8-18, is Simon tell politician truth IE PORKIES

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  10th June 2019

      Did he say ‘when Curia had them leading’?
      This week , last month , last year?

      Reply
  4. Duker

     /  10th June 2019

    Hooton must one of those advisors that would financially benefit from Collins rise, as he knows his sort of attack PR matches Collins ‘Dirty Politics’ style as she will want to to stay above the fray.

    he would ditch his London digs and study and be back in a flash if Collins took over.

    Reply
  5. duperez

     /  10th June 2019

    Matthew Hooton comes up with his diagnosis but doesn’t really come up with a prescription. I would suggest a Chill Pill and regular reality checks. Not for the National caucus or party but for Hooton.

    In his anguish he notes in the the body of his wittering, a “totally incompetent and increasingly corrupt government.” His wailing has him not headlining and leading his contribution with that thought. Oh well, he and Mike Hosking in leotarded splendour make a great tag wrestling duo so I suppose he’s letting his cobber lead the next moves on that.

    Reply
  6. Zedd

     /  10th June 2019

    one thing they mentioned on TV3 news.. the ‘hack’/release of budget details, prior to the official budget day, did NOTHING for Bridges’ credibility.. seen as just a desperate grab for ‘brownie points’ BUT it actually backfired :/ 😀

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  10th June 2019

      He would have known 2 polls would be coming after te budget, so it was his D day/Jour J/Tag X ( the military terms in English /French /German for start of an operation)

      The full name of the Operation ?
      Save Bridges Arse

      Reply
  7. Duker

     /  10th June 2019

    Guess what other Colmar Bruntun Poll Question came out today?

    The latest poll shows that most voters do not want recreational cannabis to be legalised.

    The result, from the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll, showed that 52 per cent opposed legalisation, while 39 per cent favoured legalisation; 8 per cent did not know and 1 per cent said they would not vote.

    No surprise for me , a wakeup for the dreamers who think they were right all along

    Reply

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