Johnson adamant UK will withdraw from Brexit by 31 October, EU not negotiating

Since becoming Prime Minister last month Boris Johnson has been working towards getting the United Kingdom out of the European Union by 31 October.

Negotiations between the UK and EU are at a stalemate, with the EU saying the Withdrawal Agreement is not up for negotiation, .

Attempts are being made by Europhile MPs to stop an exit without the Withdrawal Agreement or to stop an exit altogether.

“It seems all the attempts by Remainers to stop Brexit, or at least dilute it, have been what has led to the likelihood of a clean break.”

From Missy in London:


As everyone knows, Boris Johnson became PM about a month ago, and he has moved full speed ahead. As well as a number of domestic policies, he has been adamant that the UK will be out of the EU by 31 October, to this the Chancellor, Sajid Javid, has released more funds to spend on preparation for leaving with no Withdrawal Agreement, and all departments have stepped up planning.

Johnson has told the EU he is willing to talk with them, with a view to re-negotiating the Withdrawal Agreement, but not until the EU commit to the removal of the backstop. The EU refuse to budge and have stated that the Agreement is not up for negotiation, and only the non legally binding political declaration can be tweaked. So on negotiations they are currently at a stalemate. Whilst some officials, and the Brexit Secretary, have been to Brussels and Europe, Johnson has firmly refused to go, instead he has travelled the country and talked to politicians and people around the UK.

Meanwhile, in the UK Europhile MPs are stepping up their actions to stop an exit without a Withdrawal Agreement, or stop Brexit altogether. Among the actions they have taken is a court case, this has been filed in Scotland as the Scottish courts don’t close for the summer like the English courts do. The court case is to stop the PM from proroguing Parliament in October to force through a ‘no deal’ exit from the EU.

Other actions being looked at include Parliamentary processes, law changes. and a Vote of No Confidence. The last is the most likely action they will take, and is a bit of a gamble on both sides. Johnson currently has a majority of one with the DUP support, and a number of Conservative MPs have indicated they will either abstain or vote against the Government in such a vote, (though some Labour MPs have indicated they would break whip and vote for the Government so it could be balanced out).

If Johnson loses a Vote of No Confidence many are saying he should immediately step aside and let Jeremy Corbyn form a Government, however, by law he has 14 days to try and gain the confidence of the house, after which he can call a General Election, though the opposition also has 14 days to try and gain a majority in Parliament as well. The suggestion put forward yesterday by Jeremy Corbyn was for the Liberal Democrats, SNP and some Conservative MPs support him as a temporary PM to stop Brexit, and then call a GE or second referendum.

The issues with this proposal are threefold:

  1. He requires Conservative MPs to essentially support the installation of a Labour Government, and a hard left Labour Government at that, this will be unpalatable to not only other Conservative MPs, but also Conservative Members and voters. If any Conservative MPs did do this they would essentially be ending their careers. Further, as the Labour Party are currently under investigation for their handling of anti semitism claims, and the accusation that anti semitism is being enabled by the leadership team and their staff, so any Conservative members who vote for Corbyn will be tainted by the anti semitism scandal, (some already are being connected to it by just suggesting they will consider the idea).
  2. Corbyn does not have majority support within Parliament, and a number of his own MPs have said publicly they would not back him in this scenario, it is expected that more Labour MPs won’t back him than potential Conservative MPs will back him, so he won’t have the numbers to pull this off.
  3. Many of the public are more sceptical of a second referendum, with the exception of the hard Remain extremists, most don’t believe it will solve any issues, and even less so after a number of MPs, including the leaders of the Greens and Liberal Democrats, said that unless the vote was in favour of Remain they would not accept or respect the vote. With an attitude like that fewer people actually believe that any vote, except Remain, would be accepted, leaving the country as divided as it is now. On the General Election, there are some that believe Johnson is gearing up for one, and it will most likely be just after 31 October.

Of course, this depends on Corbyn actually calling a vote of No Confidence and not bottling it again. During the Conservative Leadership campaign Corbyn kept saying he would call a No Confidence vote on Johnson’s first day in Parliament, he didn’t because apparently he said he would not have the numbers, nothing has changed in Johnson’s stance, so I am not sure if he would have the numbers still.

One other action that was suggested this week, and whilst not a serious proposition it did come under fire for a lot of ridicule, and that was the suggestion by Caroline Lucas, (Green Party Leader and only MP), for an all Women cabinet of Unity to stop Brexit. Apart from her suggestion amounting to a coup and being unconstitutional and sexist, there was the issue that her Cabinet of Unity was entirely made up of women that think the same as she does, not making it very unifying. Interestingly despite all these issues about it one of the main criticisms was that all of the women were white, and she was heavily criticised for leaving out women from ethnic minorities, and it was this she apologised for whilst doubling down on her idea. For many however, this idea just came across as silly season stuff from an increasingly irrelevant MP during the summer recess.

It has been suggested that the reason the EU has not reached out to the UK, and is not taking Johnson seriously, is because Remain MPs have convinced them that they will win in Parliament and that the UK will not leave the EU, or will leave under the EU’s terms. Of course it might just be that it is August and the EU (and much of Europe) shuts down over August and nothing gets done.

On the other side of the Brexit argument, the Brexit Secretary is set to sign the commencement order to repeal the European Communities Act 1972 within days, bringing it into effect after 31 October, thus ending the supremacy of EU Law, thus meaning that the EU’s rule over the UK will end on 31 October. This has led to some speculating that Johnson might remove the UK from the EU earlier than 31 October, and some have suggested he could do it by the end of August so it is done and dusted by the time Parliament returns in the beginning of September, though I do not think this is the case, I believe that if he is aiming for an earlier date it is likely to be the end of September, but this is also unlikely.

The irony in all of this is that if Gina Miller hadn’t taken the Government to court, to the cheers of Remainers and Remain supporting MPs, and secured a legal ruling that any Withdrawal Agreement had to be ratified by Parliament, the UK would have left under May’s deal and the prospect of leaving without a Withdrawal Agreement would not have entered into play. It seems all the attempts by Remainers to stop Brexit, or at least dilute it, have been what has led to the likelihood of a clean break.

The Secretary of State for Brexit has now signed the Commencement Order which repeals the supremacy of EU law in the UK.

Brexit will happen on 31 October 2019.

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30 Comments

  1. adamsmith1922

     /  19th August 2019

    Very interesting

    Reply
  2. Gezza

     /  19th August 2019

    Did anybody ever realise Brexit would get as utterly shambolic & completely unpredictable as this?

    Reply
    • Or how LONG it would drag on ? I can’t even remember how long it’s been; it’s been up and down like a tart’s knickers for what seems like years. Dog years.

      Reply
      • Missy

         /  20th August 2019

        It was always going to be a long process. It took 9 months to trigger Article 50, and the EU Treaty allows for a minimum of 2 years for negotiating a withdrawal agreement, and if an agreement was (will be) agreed then that would have allowed for a transition process of 2-3 years, if anyone thought it was not going to be a long process they were either naive, ignorant, or just flat out stupid.

        Reply
    • Missy

       /  20th August 2019

      To be fair it wouldn’t have been as shambolic if it wasn’t for a group of wealthy, influential Remainers who have done everything to undermine the Government, also if preparations had been done before the Referendum, and planning done before Article 50 triggered. It feels less shambolic and unpredictable now, whether it is reality or not it does seem that Johnson’s Government have a plan and a vision and they are working towards that. There is a feeling that even if the UK leaves without a Withdrawal Agreement the Government are preparing for it and will be better prepared than May’s Government.

      Interestingly during the leadership campaign Jeremy Hunt accused Boris Johnson of ‘peddling optimism’, it was meant to be a put down, saying he wasn’t being realistic, however Johnson’s supporters and team picked up on it and turned it to their advantage. Again the lessons of the referendum were not heeded, people respond to optimism, and as such they have responded to Johnson. The Conservatives are up 10 points in the polls since he took over, he was polling higher than Corbyn as preferred PM BEFORE he had been to see the Queen (though to be fair don’t know was polling higher than Corbyn as well), love him or hate him he is someone who I believe can bring the majority of the country together eventually.

      Reply
    • Duker

       /  20th August 2019

      The shambles is entirely because of the House of Commons involvement, almost as a ‘conscience’ vote. This was never envisagened. All 3 options don’t have a majority
      Not the deal that the EU forced on May
      Not the reversal of the vote and Remaining
      Not a rejection of the EU terms for the backstop which is a permanent customs union and leaving without a deal.

      As well the Speaker has abandoned centuries of nuetrality of speakers since the 1600s, and plumped for not his thumb on one side but his whole boot for his preferred option

      Reply
  3. Corky

     /  19th August 2019

    A great study into the effects of ‘ Institutionalisation.’ I wonder if other EU inmates will want to fly the coop should Britain walk and gain its individuality again?

    One things for sure – there are trade deals galore Britain can negotiate. The problem is ‘time’. And time is something Britain won’t have post Brexit.

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  19th August 2019

      Proroguing – a new word for me. Never heard it; or seen it in print before.

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  19th August 2019

        I have, but it always looks wrong and not like a real word.

        Reply
      • Missy

         /  20th August 2019

        To be honest it was one of those words I was aware of from my Uni days, but hadn’t really heard it since, so when the discussion here turned to proroguing Parliament I had to really drag the memory banks for it. It is a word that isn’t generally used, though interestingly it is something that happens regularly in a Parliamentary Democracy, and it is fast becoming one of my new favourite words. 🙂

        What is odd about the arguments around Proroguing Parliament is that when it was suggested Johnson might do it so that Brexit could happen, even through calling an election, there was outcry and accusations of abuse of power, now the opposition are demanding an election which will require proroguing Parliament, though they are saying that an extension to Brexit should be requested for an Election, but there is no requirement for an extension to be requested for a General Election.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  20th August 2019

          Ok Greenland has been the only other ‘territory’ to have walked away from the EU. Definitely the EU doesn’t want any other renegades.
          Prorogation is just another form of adjournment…like they are adjourned right now for the summer holidays. Heaven forbid MPs instead stay at work over summer.
          Australia used to adjourn it’s federal parliament over summer, but no longer as witha Senate controlled by opposition parties they could and did cause mischief with scheduled hearings of committees and so on. Prorogation closes shop entirely until a time of the government’s choosing.
          And thus will Johnson break with convention…becuase he can, after all other conventions seemed to gone by the wayside

          Reply
  4. Missy

     /  20th August 2019

    My thoughts on the timing of signing the Commencement order for Brexit.

    I believe that Johnson and the team are convinced that they will lose a Vote of No Confidence if Corbyn doesn’t bottle it in September, and therefore there will be a General Election, in which case by the signing of the Commencement Order now it is law that the UK leaves on 31 October, and as such they won’t be breaking Purdah (another new word) by signing it in the pre-election period, when they can’t do anything that will tie the hands of any new Government.

    I think there are some that have underestimated Johnson, he comes across as a bit of a buffoon, and whether it is him or his advisers, they are moving very quickly and concisely to ensure Brexit happens. Of course some of this could be down to Jacob Rees Mogg who is the leader of the House, and he is considered one of the foremost experts on Parliamentary procedure in the House – some even believes he knows more than the Speaker and Clerk of the House about it.

    Reply
  5. That’s all very well but what about the football?

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  20th August 2019

      Ask Pete for a general topic thread and I will tell you about the footy. Sad this trade war has scuttled the fledgling Buffalo meat export business, eh, Arty. But come to think of it…it just ain’t righteous them Chinese folk munching bone-a- fide American prairie meat.

      Reply
    • Duker

       /  21st August 2019

      Once EU rules meant Britain and the FA couldnt have caps on other EU players in the PL.
      That will change. The top players will likely continue to be snapped up, maybe its lower divisions that will find it harder and keep more British players. Who really knows?

      Reply
  6. Dennis N Horne

     /  20th August 2019

    The cry “Brexit is the people’s will” is based on a dodgy referendum three years ago. In a proper functioning democracy efforts would be made to see if, in the cold light of dawn, the no-deal Brexit on offer is what the people want. Another referendum is needed.

    And what about the people who don’t vote? They live in the UK too, don’t they! Just because they don’t vote it doesn’t mean they need not be considered.

    I posted this on the Guardian a little while ago:

    As the heatwave buckled rails and disrupted trains in continental Europe, the English saw a mirage. Boris Johnson will shrug off the shackles off the EU, wave away the border in Ireland, and bluff the chosen to prosperity.

    House of Commons leader, Jacob Rees-Mogg, will need no second invitation. His hedge fund has made him a multimillionaire; it shifted from London to Ireland before Brexit. Nothing like being prepared. His sixth child arrived recently, so 200 million in an over-heating world won’t be enough.

    Known as Minister for the 18th Century, I suspect he yearns for the days the British issued instructions from gunboats. Now the Royal Navy can’t stop an Iranian rubber ducky seizing a British oil tanker in retaliation for the Royal Marines “arresting” one of theirs off Gibraltar. Under instructions from Donald Trump. Wasn’t Brexit about sovereignty?

    Or perhaps the British could return to the days of piracy. Free of the EU laws, perhaps the odd Spanish galleon weighed with gold could be nudged into Dover. Brexit is all about “taking back control”.

    Down the road here at William Morris, Viscount Nuffield’s old factory, Bayerische Motoren Werke will be struggling to make the Mini engine. The crankshaft crosses the Channel — and new border — three times during manufacture. I guess the factory will close and 5000 workers will become brain surgeons.

    Dennis N Horne, Oxford, UK.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  20th August 2019

      My God, Dennis, it’s been hell for the rest of the world being left out of the EU for the last forty years. I don’t know how we survived.

      Reply
      • Dennis N Horne

         /  20th August 2019

        Whatever the reason, something causes you to believe you know more science than the Royal Society of London, National Academy of Sciences of the USA, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Physical Society, American Chemical Society … so it’s not surprising you think you know more about the impact of a “no-deal” Brexit than the Bank of England, to all intents and purposes very economist in the country, the Confederation of British Industry, Airbus, all the motor vehicle manufacturers etc etc etc…

        Not to mention a leaked cabinet paper is predicting a near-collapse of supplies of food and medicine…

        Furthermore, Parliament has rejected it, and Parliament speaks for the people. Not a career psychopath like Dominic Cummings (David Cameron’s words) and a chancer like Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  21st August 2019

          The more words you use, the less I think you know, Dennis.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  21st August 2019

            Thats what i thought too.
            The ‘arrest’ of the Iranian tanker was done under EU sanctions by a Court writ in Gibraltar. What has that to do with
            Dennis is typical ‘Guardian reader’ who skims the headlines and thinks he has become well informed.

            Quoting various learned bodys is a way of covering your ignorance. They are political not scientific. My early years studying science I was surprised when it was pointed out prescribed text had sections that were ‘wrong’

            What the hell does the American Chemical Society have expertise on Climate , next you will claim the American Psychological Society as Climate experts….too late, they have
            https://www.apa.org/monitor/2018/11/cover-climate
            “Climate Change is our Call to Action”

            Reply
    • Duker

       /  20th August 2019

      There was a second vote Dennis.
      The general election in 2017 had two parties have a major increase in the votes they got. Both were Leave parties. Labour and Conservative. Even the leave party DUP increased it’s vote. Those campaigning for Remain didn’t do so well.
      What you want is a 3rd vote….but accept that either of you are honest. This is obvious from the talk about ‘people who don’t vote’
      Look a poll which used a sample of say 2500 people is said to give a close approx of all the electorate. Imagine how close a sample of 10s of millions would be.

      Reply
      • Dennis N Horne

         /  20th August 2019

        What has the number of elections or referendums got to do with it? If the reason for leaving the EU come hell or high water is the “will of the people” don’t you think it would be a good idea to find out what the “will of the people” is NOW.

        This is not about the will of the people, this is about freaks and ideologues having a wankfest.

        Why am I not surprised a couple of mad climate deniers are also mad Brexiteers.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  21st August 2019

          What do you know about Climate Dennis – outside of the pages of the Guardian.

          Brexit is neither here nor there to me , but since the previous EU grand designs the Brits said no thanks to turned out to be the right ones.
          NO to the Euro – remember how that was going to real bad for UK when they opted to retain pound.
          NO to the Schengen passport free travel area, which means they kept their visa rules rather than adopt the EU ones.
          NO to the EU charter of fundamental rights. The absurdity of the EU being a font of fundamental rights is laughable
          NO to the so called Area of Freedom and Justice, which I think means they dont kowtow to the European Court of Justice and ties in with the Schengen opt out.

          have you seen what the EU does these days apart from the massive Agricultural subsidy system

          Reply
  7. Missy

     /  28th August 2019

    It’s all on now! The Government has asked the Queen to suspend Parliament shortly after they return from Summer recess with the Queen’s speech to be delivered on 14 October.

    All eyes are on the Leader of the Opposition to see if he will call a vote of No Confidence next week, or bottle it again.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632

    Reply
    • Missy

       /  29th August 2019

      The Privy Council have announced that the Queen has approved the suspension of Parliament.

      Note, this is a long overdue suspension of Parliament, the current session is the longest Parliamentary session (time Parliament has sat without a speech from the throne) since the civil war, and is not that unusual.

      There is some debate on social media regarding the suspension time, some suggest that it will only be an extra 3 or 4 days as Parliament would have been suspended for the Party Conference season in a couple of weeks, however, others suggest that this close to Brexit Parliament would have voted to continue sitting and not suspend Parliament. It seems the PM has gazumped those that may have tried to sit through the Conference season.

      Reply
  1. Johnson adamant UK will withdraw from Brexit by 31 October, EU not negotiating — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition
  2. Johnson adamant UK will withdraw from Brexit by 31 October, EU not negotiating — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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