1 News Colmar Brunton poll – December 2019

What is likely to be the last political poll of the year, from 1 News/Colmar Brunton, has national in a strong position, and ACT rewarded for David Seymour’s work on the End of Life Choice Bill.

  • National 46% (down 1)
  • Labour 39% (down 1)
  • Greens 7% (no change)
  • NZ First 4% (no change)
  • ACT 2% (up 1)
  • The Opportunities Party 1%
  • New Conservatives 1%
  • Maori Party 1%

Don’t know or refused to answer – 17%

(Results rounded to the nearest whole number so small party results and movements can be exaggerated) .

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 36% (down 2)
  • Simon Bridges 10% (up 1)
  • Judith Collins 4% (up 1)
  • Winston Peters 3% (down 1)

Between November 23-27, 1006 eligible voters were polled by landline (504) and mobile phone (502). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts.

Recent polls charted here: http://www.polled.co.nz/

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37 Comments

  1. Duker

     /  2nd December 2019

    Absurd precision claimed from numbers, which in the middle are within a band of 7%. Up and down in this context is ridiculous.
    But my prediction that Bridges threw the policy sink at this quiet time of the year because he knew a poll was in the works was spot on. fat lot of good it did him and his party.
    The dont knows are the 3rd biggest party

    Reply
    • CORKY

       /  2nd December 2019

      If that interpretation makes you feel better…go for it. It’s about consistent polling and perceptions. The average voter is only seeing one picture at the moment. And the undecided voters will soon be voting National.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  2nd December 2019

        National was ‘down 1%’…. same interpretation.!
        But where are the prophets of doom considering his mini election campaign

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  2nd December 2019

          ”National was ‘down 1%’…. same interpretation.!”

          I was expecting 3%

          Reply
    • Gezza

       /  2nd December 2019

      Absurd precision claimed from numbers, which in the middle are within a band of 7%. Up and down in this context is ridiculous.

      Of course it is, and of course they are. But they always do it. So does Newshub with theirs. I think Simon & National supporters will be happy enuf that he’s slowly climbing up in the preferred PM rating & that Jacinda’s dropped in this one, though.

      We’re still nearly a year away from the next likely election date, Labour has plenty of time to try & woo voters. So do the other parties. These are good entertainment up until the next election’s final results come out.

      Reply
  2. Kitty Catkin

     /  2nd December 2019

    Labour’s appalling stuff up which made gun owners’ personal details available for all to see will take some getting over; this is unforgivable. The response was totally inadequate.

    This was the fourth time that people’s personal details have been published and probably the most serious.

    Reply
    • Maggy Wassilieff

       /  2nd December 2019

      Looks like it’s not just names and addresses of gun owners, but also bank account details that have been sent out into the ether.

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  2nd December 2019

        Makes mandatory shower heads look inconsequential. They can’t even confirm whether it was one person or fifteen who accessed this information.

        Reply
    • Gezza

       /  2nd December 2019

      It’s not Labour’s appalling stuff up. It’s the police’s – or more specifically, the fault of the company they contracted to manage their online gunowners’ buyback registration (or is it a gun registration?) site. You have to wonder who vetted or audited their site security though.

      It’s a bad situation if those details have now got into the hands of anyone wanting to know who has guns they could nick though. Something a gun owners’ lobby spokeswoman was making a big point out of on 1News at 6 by telling users of the site to tighten their home gun security immediately & be on the lookout for suspicious characters.

      The police have had a bad year since March – prisoners escaping from under their noses, several guns stolen from inside a cop shop, their own guns stolen from one of their own cars…. I’m surprised people aren’t calling for the Police Commissioner’s resignation.

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  2nd December 2019

        The police have honestly lost their way. The top brass is incompetent in my opinion. And too many of the front line staff look and act like ferals. They are tattooed to the max and can’t speak the the Queens English.

        Example: I was exiting Bunnings when I was approached by two police offers who said: ”Boy, what’s up, eh!” Confused, I didn’t know what to say. I was saved by a shop employee pointing to who the officers should be interrogating. They just dawdled off. No apologies.
        Very unprofessional.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  2nd December 2019

          Were you wearing a hoodie top?

          Reply
          • Corky

             /  2nd December 2019

            No, just jeans and a tee shirt. I did have my black Docs on though. Police don’t like Docs for some reason. And for some reason I don’t like cops with tattoos.
            They have dropped their recruiting standards.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  2nd December 2019

              I’ve been thinking about this. When I was a teenager in New Plymouth us young fullas could (literally) ask a white helmeted beat bobby in town for the time & get a rolled eyes, a grin, &, likely as not, the time. You could even sometimes chat briefly to them before they smiled and resumed their beat, even the young coppers.

              These day, if you ask a cop anything, like, “what’s going on?” – you’re often likely to get a peremptory response, no information, especially from younger cops, and be told to go away or move on.

              Dunno if it’s the training, the pressure they’re under, or what.

              I think they’ve been underfunded for decades now, never see a beat cop, usually one or two in cars, & with the shit they must have to deal with both on the streets, & from on high, as their priorities & limited resources keep getting mucked about with to satisfy the demands of the politicians that they focus on whatever the current crime or road policing issue is they’re probably resigned to often seeing the public as something of a nuisance when they’re out & about. Got every insular.

            • Duker

               /  2nd December 2019

              You have just described ‘millenials’ ….same attitude whether it’s a business or police….always on leave or whatever when they get back to you …eventually

      • Kitty Catkin

         /  2nd December 2019

        Doc Martens are so mainstream that it’s hard to imagine anyone noticing them nowadays.

        The Police Minister has to take the blame ultimately; he ought to resign over this.

        Maggy, I hadn’t heard that the bank accounts etc were also made public; inexcusable.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  2nd December 2019

          The Police Minister has to take the blame ultimately; he ought to resign over this.

          Not in New Zealand, they don’t. Not these days either.

          The Minister isn’t the one who vets & approves Police systems; someone in the Police hierarchy will have had that responsibility. Nash has probably done his nut at the Commissioner & that rocket probably will be roaring down the tier looking for a target.

          Reply
          • Kitty Catkin

             /  4th December 2019

            The Minister is the one who’s in charge over all, like a school head, and they have to take the blame as well as the praise, fairly or unfairly. That’s what they’re paid for.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  4th December 2019

              No. It was like that in NZ when I joined the Public Service as a cadet in 1973, & when you were writing Ministerials no doubt, but that convention changed almost overnight when the Lange/Douglas government came into office & it was made clear that Departments were to stop telling Ministers why Ministers shouldn’t or couldn’t do things (policy-wise) & start telling them HOW they proposed to do it.

              At around that time it was also made clear that Ministers wouldn’t be carrying the can for departmental stuff-ups – it was up to departmental heads (later, CEOs) to make sure they didn’t happen – if they did, there was no guarantee the Minister would defend them, as the old convention had been to do.

              You very rarely see a Minister resign in NZ because of some monumental departmental screw up. If they do it will generally be because there’s been a succession of them & at some point they’ve been involved & could have prevented it.

    • duperez

       /  2nd December 2019

      I’ve just been reading about it. So does the Minister of Police resign, the Prime Minister and/or someone in the Police who actually did or didn’t do some technical, thing which enabled it to happen? The Police Deputy Commissioner Mike Clement he was confident no-one in the NZ Police was at fault.

      Whatever happened apparently proves there shouldn’t a firearm registry. The whole thing about guns seems to be problematic for a number of people.
      Why don’t we simply scrap all the registration and licensing stuff – most gun owners don’t cause problems and many of them have been telling us they are very responsible. Let people own what sort of weapons they want.

      Well maybe except for gang members. Strike Force Raptor will take all theirs off them when they do their places over.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  2nd December 2019

        Rubbish. Legal gun owners are the prime way guns get in the hands of criminals . They buy them them and on sell, as no records are kept of how many guns a legal owner has
        Tarrant was a legal gun owner and he had full permission to buy 2000 plus rounds.
        The reason he came to NZ for his rampage …he couldn’t buy guns like that in OZ.
        The other plus side is gun homicides will drop over the next 5 yes based on the Oz experience

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  2nd December 2019

          ”The reason he came to NZ for his rampage …he couldn’t buy guns like that in OZ.”

          Listen: if you have the money you can have any gun you want in Australia or New Zealand. Sure, it’s harder for the average Joe to obtain such weapons. But if you are serious you will meet the RIGHT people who can help. Plus you have the Dark Web.
          That said..it’s a dangerous world you enter.

          Reply
  3. Blazer

     /  2nd December 2019

    Colmar Brunton Poll is so biased,to make it….unreliable …look at its record.

    Reply
      • Blazer

         /  2nd December 2019

        1 swallow doesn’t make a..summer…

        Reply
        • No, but how close they were in their nearest poll to the last actual election result is the only one that really matters, imo. And what those ones show is that last time 1NCB wasn’t too far off for National & Labour, & given the margins of error wasn’t massively off for Act & NZF. NRR was reasonably close to actual too.

          They’re entertainment for me – but the low Labour Party results thru the year were sufficiently unnerving to unseat Andrew Little from the Labour leaders’ position. They could possibly unseat Bridges too if his personal poll ratings don’t come up next year, but this is less likely if the National Party consistently polls ahead of the Labour Party in, say 2 out 3 published polls, counting Stuff/Yougov?

          But with so far to go before the next election polls at this time aren’t even a useful rough guide to the next election’s probable final results.

          Reply
  4. David

     /  3rd December 2019

    Another pleasing poll, the trend is my friend, to round off Arderns year of delivery. Lets do this ?

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  3rd December 2019

      morning David …the Raj Rover out of the workshop…yet? 😉

      Mike Greer is creaming it in..Aucks.

      Reply
    • Duker

       /  3rd December 2019

      “the trend is my friend”
      yes looking back will tell you what the future holds, and do you know how the 17% dont know party will go.
      National does its own internal polls, Trend cant have been good for Bridges as hes run a ‘mini campaign’ in the last 2 weeks to improve his and the Nats numbers from Curia- cant have the Mps thinking about New years resolutions.

      Reply
  5. Reply
    • Gezza

       /  3rd December 2019

      Well, that was an interesting watch. Jack Tame did really well, imo, boring in & not getting deflected by Jacinda’s patter & platitudes. Good to see a political interviewer not constantly interrupting & talking over top of their victim so you can hear the interviewee finish what they are saying & judge them on that.

      If John Key was “smile & wave”, Jacinda Ardern is “smile & divert”.

      I think Jack “Kyowra” Tame skewered her. But ever so nicely.

      Reply
  6. Zedd

     /  3rd December 2019

    Just another poll.. with another result, BUT both Lab. & Natl are down 1%, hardly a reason for Jacinda to PANIC, as some journos are suggesting !? 😀

    Reply
  7. Gezza

     /  4th December 2019

    This seems a bit panicky. I wonder if Joe Pagani has seen Labour’s internal polls? The ones Jacinda told Jack Tame on Q+A the other night that she gets delivered every fortnight & that tell her something different to the latest 1News Colmar Brunton poll, but that she pointedly ignored answering his question what do they show & diverted immediately to something else?

    OPINION: If recent polling hasn’t sent shockwaves through Labour then we haven’t been paying attention.

    This week’s Colmar-Brunton poll showed the latest in a growing trend. Voters who flocked to Labour earlier in the year have taken a look, and don’t like what they see. National is on the rise. Despite an unpopular leader, and a dearth of policy ideas, they may stumble into government.

    Based on the average of polls, Labour can still govern. But it should worry us that we haven’t capitalised on Jacinda Ardern’s popularity – either to make lasting economic change, or win new voters to Labour’s cause.

    The coming election will be close, and Labour should not risk a Simon Bridges government that would roll back even the small progress the country is making under Labour.

    Luckily, Labour has a policy that would stifle National’s growing support, and seal the next election – a tax cut for working people. The ammunition is already there; a budget surplus and record-low interest rates make public debt the least of our worries. So too is the economic case; as the world economy slows. the government needs to spend money to keep our economy running.

    Grant Robertson’s announcement on new infrastructure spending is a welcome addition to repair our crumbling roads and nightmarish public transport. But big projects take years to plan and instigate – whereas a low-income tax cut could put money in workers’ pockets within months.

    Strongest of all is the political case. National has struggled to differentiate itself from Labour, failing, as Labour did, to redefine itself in opposition. But as we saw in 2017 they still have one message left: voters can’t trust Labour on tax.

    Unlike National’s flawed tax cut in 2017, a Labour tax cut should target earners on the bottom end, rather than those above $50,000 per year. A cut in the bottom rate, or even better, the creation of a tax-free bracket which exists in many other countries, would help the rich and poor alike, including welfare recipients, pensioners and minimum wage workers.
    More:
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/117924673/cut-taxes-labour-and-earn-the-right-to-reform

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  4th December 2019

      ”Luckily, Labour has a policy that would stifle National’s growing support, and seal the next election – a tax cut for working people.”

      If beanies aren’t included in the budget..Labour will lose any gains it makes with tax cuts for working folk.

      Reply
    • Duker

       /  4th December 2019

      Yet again, another commentator gives polls precision they dont have Do they even know what margin of error spread of 7% means.
      They also havent heard of the 13% strong Dont Know party
      never mind polls are just a prop for your already formed point of view.
      Even Farrar was stamping his feet over some minor point Ardern was supposed to have said and how dare she question the results .

      Hello , guess who was questioning Colmar Brunton when their numbers didnt suit National
      https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/09/the_diverging_polls.html
      Divergence is the technical term for ‘its rubbish’

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  4th December 2019

        That’s why I wonder if he’s got access to other poll data that’s showing a decline in support for Jacinda & Labour.

        Will be interesting to see how the HYFU lookscwhen it comes out but they have ended the year looking rather messy & shambolic as the big party in Winston’s coalition government.

        I’m also wondering whether this coming campaign year the girls-driven Jacindamania might end & the green-eyed monster might start to rear its ugly head.

        Reply

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