UK election

The UK election is under way. Polls close at 22:00 GMT (11:00 am NZT), with results due to come out this afternoon our time.

This follows elections in 2015 and 2017 and  tumultuous political period mainly due to the Brexit mess and  virtual hung parliament.

BBC – General election 2019: Voters head to polls across the UK

A total of 650 MPs will be chosen under the first-past-the-post system used for general elections, in which the candidate who secures the most votes in each individual constituency is elected.

Elections in the UK traditionally take place every four or five years. But, in October, MPs voted for the second snap poll in as many years. It is the first winter election since 1974 and the first to take place in December since 1923.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has cast his vote – he visited a polling station in central London, taking his dog, Dilyn, along with him, and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn posed for pictures when he went to vote in north London.

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon visited a polling station in Glasgow, while Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson cast her vote at a polling station in East Dunbartonshire, accompanied by her husband Duncan Hames.

Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price voted in Carmarthenshire and Green Party co-leader Jonathan Bartley did so in south London.

Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage has used a postal vote.

A post at The Standard by Bill hopes that a late surge of young voter registrations will favour Corbyn and Labour – The Missing Millions.

As Zoe Williams reported in yesterday’s Guardian, none of the predictions flowing from any poll used in the UK incorporates the 4 million new registrations from this year. As she points out, most of those new registrations are from ‘young’ people who are far more likely to vote Labour.

That leaves four million, (registrations in 2019) the majority of whom are young. Even while various pollsters are happy to predict that they will break 2:1 Labour (which is actually quite a cautious estimate: if they’re young, they turn out and they vote tactically, the Labour share could be higher), they have so far been unwilling to build these voters into their predictions.

By my reckoning that’s about 10% of the total number of people who are eligible to vote that have been ‘blanked’ by polling companies.”

I’m almost left scratching my head as to why publication after publication has been been making robust predictions of a Tory victory and a Labour loss based on polling. And here’s the rub. I’m persuaded the predictions are driven by ideology and the polls merely offer cover for that fact.

We’ve heard similar dreams of election miracles and claims of poll and media plots here in the past.

But swordfish suggests Bill’s hopes may be fanciful.

Be nice to think so … but I strongly suspect Zoe is catering to those clutching at straws, Labour having proven unable to narrow the Tory lead over the final week to the extent that supporters would’ve liked.

I think she’s probably wrong for the following reasons:

(1) She is clearly influenced by the widely-held assumption that a similar  Youthquake occurred in 2017. The most authoritative research (by the British Election Study & separately by a few other academics) suggests this was largely a myth … essentially Tremors, yes, but no Youthquake (although the concept still remains popular with one or two Political Sociologists).

(2) My understanding is that Pollsters naturally incorporate newly-registered voters, (in the correct proportion) as they do everyone else, in their samples (& hence in their % & seat predictions).

And – in contrast to 2017, when they were aggressively down-weighting younger voters – almost all UK Pollsters are currently basing their turnout models on respondents self-reported likelihood of voting. Hence, any assumed lower turnout by younger age-groups will be down to a larger proportion of young respondents telling pollsters they’re less likely to vote than people in older age groups.

(3)  Zoe has probably exaggerated the number of new registrations. Chaminda Jayanetti has analysed newly-registered voters across a large number of constituencies (519) in recent days and suggests a much more modest increase – certainly nowhere near 4 million.

(4) Jayanetti certainly argues that newly-registered voters could play a key role in the outcome of up to 20-30 marginals.

But he emphasises that the data compiled from 519 constituencies across the UK, including most battleground constituencies, shows the largest increases in registered voters are generally not located where Labour needs them most – ie in its Red Wall of Northern & Midlands Leave-voting Marginals. The greatest rises tend to be in Metro & student-heavy seats, many of them Labour strongholds & near-strongholds.

Of the 26 most marginal (read: absolute knife-edge) seats in the latest YouGov MRP model predictions … only 9 (according to Jayanetti’s detailed analysis) have experienced the sort of mild-to-significant increases in new registrations that could prove decisive. And of the 41 next-most-marginal, just 1 is showing the sort of substantial rise needed to play a crucial role.

What’s more, a lot of marginals have actually experienced a fall in registered voters. For example, all 4 of the Labour-held marginals in West Yorkshire (each of them a key Tory target) have registered a decline.

So that is some detailed analysis by swordfish, as opposed to cherry picking wishful thinking by Bill, plus predicted odds of various outcomes

I’d say Likelihood:

Small Tory majority: 50%

Larger Tory majority: 30%

Hung Parliament: 20%

David Farrar at Kiwiblog: Final UK projections

The four projection models are:

  • FocalData Cons majority 24
  • YouGov Cons majority 28
  • Electoral Calculus Cons majority 46
  • Savanta Cons majority 30

The seat projections are:

  • Conservative 337 to 349
  • Labour 226 to 235
  • SNP 41 to 45
  • Lib Dems 11 to 15

We should find out later today.

 

 

 

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59 Comments

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  13th December 2019

      Pound surges 2% on exit poll result. So much for Brexit gloom and doom.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  13th December 2019

        Make that 3% now.

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  13th December 2019

          It’s moving in the RIGHT direction. Why the hell some British people don’t want to control their own destiny is beyond me. Maybe they don’t want a situation Britain was in before joining the EU. I don’t think there needs to be a repeat of that, but Britain will need to be savvy and production will need to increase, along with a raft of trade agreements.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  13th December 2019

            Ironically the EU were cheering for Boris. They are as sick of being hamstrung by Brexit as the Brits. And they can’t settle their budget until they do Brexit.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  13th December 2019

              Budget isnt a problem, that was one of the EU ‘deal’ criteria , no existing EU member is worse off from Britain leaving. What that means is UK will continue to contribute to EU budget in this cycle – its a 5 yr budget.
              This is why the divorce bill is so large , but over many years. In return they were supposed to get a ‘trade deal’ for the billions of pounds paid , but sounds like EU bureaucrats want to drag their feet – as they always do.

            • Duker

               /  13th December 2019

              . I see now, that budget deal was only for the ‘transition period’ which is until this time next year.

              Does this mean we will go through this all again ,with the ‘post Brexit Exit’ ‘ in a years time . Please not again.
              It will be a test of Boris’s true leave ambitions now hes rid of the arch remainers, will he bang the table on the EU flunkies will will want Britain to be still paying in 10 yrs time?

  1. David

     /  13th December 2019

    Brexit will finally be delivered. Pleasing to see that vicious anti semite is going to get slaughtered and hopefully the end of him and his appalling followers.
    A good night for Farage, he may not pick up any seats but probably the most influential non MP for a generation.

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  13th December 2019

      Good bye Jeremy Corbyn, if the exit polls hold. Good bye to jew-hating, nationalisation and a joyless mug that isn’t endearing.

      Your NZ to Missy, over?

      Reply
    • Duker

       /  13th December 2019

      Corbyn condemns anti semitism totally.
      He just doesnt support Zionism and Israels occupation

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  13th December 2019

        If you believe that…you’d believe National is going to deal to the gangs.

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  13th December 2019

          Please give Jews the courtesy of using a capital for our name.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  13th December 2019

            christians or jews … or muslims
            Israel ..zionism..

            Reply
            • Corky

               /  13th December 2019

              Don’t upset the Grammar Nazi. I think capitals are called for?

            • Duker

               /  13th December 2019

              Heres IHRA definition of Anti semetism , its the standard one with a few that are a stretch.
              Which ones does Corbyn clearly breach ? Or is he responsible for what others who clearly say anti semetic things?
              Note thats on the list -collective stigmatization of one persons actions
              https://www.holocaustremembrance.com/working-definition-antisemitism

              This one is a rather wide interpretation.
              “Denying the Jewish people their right to self-determination”

              hello ? Kurds can tell you all about that one . Another nugget I found the other day . You cant just say those rights of self determination exceed all the other people living in Palestine in 1948, when the UN created Israel

              In the aftermath of WW1 80% of the people of the Austrian region/state of Voralberg voted to join the Swiss Confederation. Their ‘right of self determination’ was blocked and they became part of the rump state of Austria.
              I did not know this, but even though they speak German , the local dialect is not really all that intelligible to the people living in Vienna. Both geographically and linguistically they are more connected to the Swiss German speakers.
              The same happened in the German speaking Sudetenland, they were forced to join the Czechs
              ‘Self determination’ is not always getting exactly what you want

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  13th December 2019

              Only a total prat would call a Jew a Nazi, and only an ignoramus would trivialise the Nazi regime by this cliched, unoriginal, hackneyed usage.It shows that the user has no idea of what Nazi means.

              To leave the capital off any race’s name is igorant at best, insulting at worst.

            • Duker

               /  13th December 2019

              It’s not a race…
              The word jew was once a derogatory term, surely you know that. But now yid is yet it’s same term in Yiddish.

  2. Looks like UK Labour have been Corbynised like charcoal without the glow.

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  13th December 2019

      Damn fine word picture, Pete.

      Reply
    • Gezza

       /  13th December 2019

      Reminds me, on a sandwich board in Tawa shopping village yesterday:

      Side 1: A diamond is just a lump of coal that did well under pressure

      Side 2: If you want children to LISTEN, talk in a low voice to somebody else.

      1News Midday’s Daniel Faitawa reported from London that exit polls are showing Boris’s lot should have enuf seats to govern, & Jeremy Corybyn looks set to head Labour’s worst result for decades.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  13th December 2019

        Thats only because SNP now cleans up the labour seats in Scotland, when comparing with past decades.
        As always FPP in the British situation is complicated . Easiest to look at % of total vote when looking back ( but unlike NZ that doesnt give a seat count)

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  13th December 2019

          That’s as may be Duker, but Corbyn seems to be not much more than a vague, whining populist who’s managed to make himself unpopular.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  13th December 2019

            Still some surprises to come.
            The Labour vote in North has dropped away , but enough has gone to Brexit party to prevent Conservatives taking the seat.
            Same in Scotland, SNP could be picking up seats from surge to Labour last time
            Im winding back the Conservative majority the exit polls are talking about ( theres a wide range anyway)
            The exit poll isnt really a poll prediction as they ask the people who voted after the fact.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  13th December 2019

              True, all the commentators mention the caveat that exit polls aren’t proof of the final result. It’ll be interesting to compare those with the EP predictions.

            • Duker

               /  13th December 2019

              The polls will ‘always be wrong’ as the analysts give them a precision they have never have.
              Margin of error even when they have a perfect weighting of answers is still a range of 7% for NZs main parties. Errors in the weighting for dont knows and who is going to vote make that even bigger.
              In US polls they actually call those people who are on the roll and listed as voting last time- its public information, but not who they voted for.
              I saw a NY Times poll that called 20,000 of those people to get answers for 2000.
              Even in UK turnouts are around 55-69% so far , where the political news is a commodity for advertisers, when a lot are only interested in say sport

  3. Alan Wilkinson

     /  13th December 2019

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  13th December 2019

      The pathetic bleatings of the Lefty elitist luvvies is a joy to see and hear. Meanwhile the U.K. gets to enjoy the Boris grin instead of the Corbyn scowl. And the financial markets are relieved despite all the silly alarmism trotted out about Brexit.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  13th December 2019

        That’s for sure. At last the whole fake people’s choice vote is put to rest. Lib Dems lost big, the arch remainers who tried to trip up Brexit with the help of the courts have been told to take a jump.
        SNP will take over as chief trouble makers but why they think leaving UK will be great but leaving the EU is a disater…..but politics can make black seem white

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  13th December 2019

          Expect the Scots to backtrack fast when they discover leaving the UK after leaving the EU leaves them paying for their own huge deficit. If they can do anything the Scots can count their own money.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  14th December 2019

            Scotland share of UK national debt will make their eyes water. Plus a ‘hard border’, having the euro and its rules about budget deficits

            Reply
  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  13th December 2019

    The Independent website is crap. No wonder they lost their second referendum campaign when they can’t even run a usable website.

    Reply
  5. Alan Wilkinson

     /  13th December 2019

    Trumpy wins again!

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  13th December 2019

      Tell that to the 2 governor’s who Trump supported and they lost. Tell that to the huge swath the Dems cut through Republican house seats last year.
      One ‘charge’ Trump couldn’t wtiigle out of was the fine for stealing from his own charity.!

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  13th December 2019

        ‘stealing’….like a common thief…surely not…Al would not condone it.

        Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  13th December 2019

        Oh yes, the Democrat attorneys around NY and Ca have been hunting Trump from the moment he was elected. But mostly losing once they get to the Supreme Court.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  13th December 2019

          They change Trump’s executive orders so much by the time it gets to Scotuss, where there are 2 appointees of Trump’s, no wonder it gets through.
          But that goes to Trump’s business skills , stealing from his own charity ?
          That will do well in the next election.
          How about his Tax returns , not winning in court so far, was he dodging taxes too….is his hair orange?

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  13th December 2019

            Trump gets prosecuted for funding his own campaign while Lefties expect the taxpayer to fund theirs.

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  13th December 2019

              Trump…’I would love to reveal my tax returns..’

              Corporations fund politicians …make no mistake…that’s why the world is such a mess.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  13th December 2019

              Really? The messiest places seem to be the ones where the state has taken over the corporations.

            • Duker

               /  13th December 2019

              Funding his own campaign? Prosecution was nothing to do with that.

              And yes he didn’t get public funding for the 2016 election. But neither did Clinton or Sanders. Internet has changed everything about raising huge volumes of smallish donations

    • Gezza

       /  13th December 2019

      Gloating that Trump wins is just the most bizarre example of TBS you’ve displayed yet.

      Trump wasn’t even a candidate & my bet is you’ll find no Brits who voted for their conservative candidate because Trump said he thought Boris would be a good PM.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  13th December 2019

        If that’s the most bizarre you don’t have much to complain about – not that that will stop you. Ask Sadiq Khan how he is feeling and what he has done with his Trump and Boris balloons.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  13th December 2019

          Wtf? Are you losing your mind? Sadiq Khan wasn’t a candidate either.

          Why would I give a tinker’s damn whatever that plonker Khan did with balloons. Do you even have a link that shows Khan owns or commissioned Trump or Johnson balloons?

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  13th December 2019

            Some good reporting in this: https://www.ft.com/content/470b4c60-706e-3a62-927e-40ce5ed6f97a

            President Trump has said Boris Johnson’s election victory leaves Britain and the US “free to strike a massive new trade deal” after Brexit.

            Many prominent eurosceptics have long seen a trade deal with the US as one of the key benefits from leaving the EU. But Labour spent the campaign highlighting the strong relationship between Messrs Trump and Johnson, and the possibility of the NHS being a pawn in any trade negotiations.

            Reply
          • Gezza

             /  13th December 2019

            That doesn’t say Khan owns Trump or Johnson balloons. It also doesn’t say Trump won the UK election. Or that he is the reason The Conservative Party did. Three fails.

            Look, I’m happy to leave it at you’re having posted an inane comment above that you cannot support with any convincing evidence, due to temporary insanity owing to persistent TBS.

            I suggest you leave it at that because if I laugh much more at you I’ll need a wee.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  13th December 2019

              Sorry to hear you have bladder problems on top of everything else. Trump and Boris are the ones laughing today. I just have a grin.

            • Duker

               /  14th December 2019

              Small beer for his own political activities, more commonly other political events.
              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_J._Trump_Foundation
              His last donation using his own money was in 2008, so he didnt use his own donations to foundation to fund 2016 campaign

              This will rear its head big time come election time to show hes a crook at so many levels.
              Lock him up!

  6. Corky

     /  13th December 2019

    Time for Simon to uphold the RIGHTEOUS name of conservatism in our neck of the woods.
    It won’t be easy judging by the PMs show on One News tonight. She knows how to work the public..Simon unfortunately knows how to get up peoples noses. But It can be done. It’s not like he’s short of ammo.

    Imagine the holy trinity of… Trumpy, Boris and Simon.😜✔

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  13th December 2019

      Can’t see it. Maybe Crusher though. Simon doesn’t have either the instincts or delivery as far as I can tell.

      Reply
  7. Alan Wilkinson

     /  14th December 2019

    Just spent a happy half hour reading the Guardian columnists smashing their heads against walls. None seem to have learnt anything from the experience. It’s an entertaining lesson in the variety of ways supposedly smart people can be stupid

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  14th December 2019

      I see the Lib Dems lost 10 of their 21 seats, including Jo Swinson’s, & she’s resigned as leader.

      But the SNP had a landslide, got nearly all the Scottish seats – except 10 I think they said. On Aljazeera tv last night she was shown watching a screen & reacting with unbridled glee when Swinson lost her seat. She was reportedly already saying she has the mandate to demand a new vote on Scottish independence, but that requires Parlianent’s approval & the Conservatives won’t agree.

      I notice the Guardian header World News header for Kiwiland is New Zealand /Aotearoa.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  14th December 2019

        The SNP benefited from Labour’s vote collapsing and the Tory leader quit over Boris’s Brexit stand. Then the LibDem leader lost her seat. So probably a not to be repeated success.

        And the chances of Scots voting for independence AFTER Brexit are zilch – hence her urgency for a referendum. Boris will just deny and delay.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  14th December 2019

          Saddest thing for Scotland is when they really needed Billy Connolly all they got was Nicola Sturgeon.

          Reply
  1. UK election — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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