Labour’s election support by district under threat?

From Harry Jamieson@graveyjones5

The Labour party managed to form a coalition government after this election, making @jacindaardern the 2nd youngest PM in NZ history. They performed best in cities (Dunedin, Wellington, Nelson ect) as well as in rural areas with large Maori populations (East Coast).

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This excludes special votes but should be approximately the same.  It is done per district rather than per electorate.

Māori support was strong, but that could be challenged this year.

RNZ: Whānau Ora head warns minister over funding allocation

Whānau Ora minister Peeni Henare can kiss Māori progress goodbye if he continues to allow other agencies to dip into its funding, the organisation’s head has warned.

It comes as distinguished Māori leaders seek an urgent Waitangi Tribunal hearing over the government’s handling of Whānau Ora funding.

It received an $80m funding boost over four years in the 2019 Budget, but North Island commissioning agency chair Merepeka Raukawa-Tait said not all of that money was going to Whānau Ora.

“From what we have seen, particularly in the last 12 months, we believe that the government is starting to undermine Whānau Ora,” Raukawa-Tait told RNZ’sCheckpoint.

She – along with Dame Naida Glavish, Dame Tariana Turia, Lady Tureiti Moxon and Dame Iritana Tawhiwhirangi – wrote to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in November last year expressing their concerns, but said they had not had a response.

They are now seeking an urgent Waitangi Tribunal hearing, claiming the government has breached the Treaty of Waitangi by refusing to adequately and transparently fund Whānau Ora.

Of the $20m extra funding Whānau Ora was promised last year, only about $5m was received by the commissioning agencies.

Raukawa-Tait said that did not make any sense, and she had a message for the Minister of Whānau Ora, Peeni Henare.

“Be the minister that we want to have confidence in. At this present moment we do not.”If he does not understand his role and our expectations of him than you can kiss Māori progress goodbye for the next two decades.”

She said if he continued to allow government agencies to use its funding, Whānau Ora faced destruction by stealth.

Henare denied any of the Whānau Ora funding was going to other government agencies, and said the move was politically motivated.

He’s referring to the move to challenge the funding of Whānau Ora – of course there’s politics involved, that’s how the Government is lobbied, especially in an election year.

It’s hard to know how Labour support will be generally this year, but it should actually increase. In the 2017 election they got 36.89% of the party vote, but since then have mostly polled in the 40s:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

That trend my be a bit of a concern for Labour.

Their poll support peaked at 50.8 in June 2019 (Newshub/Reid Research), but the same pollster had them at 41.6% in October and three polls since then (two from Colmar Brunton and one from YouGov) were 40%, 41% and 39%.

A generally sound economy with promises and money available for big spending boosts this year will be in Labour’s favour, but influential coalition partner NZ First is best known this term for dishing out dollops of money to the regions, and the Greens are pushing for even higher levels of borrowing and spending,

Labour will need to try to get the balance right between buying voter support (with voters’ money) without appearing too financially reckless.

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13 Comments

  1. artcroft

     /  22nd January 2020

    The continuing lies and conflicts of interest from Jones and his Labour enablers is going to make the going tough for Adern in 2020. It’ll be anything but open and transparent govt from now on.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  22nd January 2020

      What lies . Even the the person from NZFFP cant remember when or who was there but it was something about forest supply chain. Did he even mention a new timber processing mill in Gisborne at all.

      The rest of the above map and coloured in districts is pointless. Districts dont elect Mps, and the current government vote is split amoungst Labour Greens NZ First. The areas are not of course equal population , so tiny Wairoa district with a total population of maybe 6,000 is the same size as Auckland ‘district’ with 1.6 mill.
      Create a map with each electorate of the same size and colour that in with strength of Government/opposition support.

      Reply
      • artcroft

         /  22nd January 2020

        Perhaps they could just draw a map showing where he half dozen houses Phill Tywford built are and append a picture to it of Grant Robinson borrowing 11 billion to pay for them.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  22nd January 2020

          Kiwibuild homes are sold to new owners and its for the entire HNZ, Kiwbuild development over many years
          And theres long overdue maintenance catchup
          https://kaingaora.govt.nz/news/hectares-of-new-roofing-for-our-homes/

          Reply
        • Duker

           /  22nd January 2020

          What about the nearly $1 bill for Chorus….how many houses did that build back in 2011 when the building industry was flat?
          And I wonder how much those fibre network ‘free instals’ at around $900 a pop cost?
          Not enough houses built at the time but those that had one could watch Netflix

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  22nd January 2020

            You don’t need fibre to watch Netflix. VDSL does just fine.

            However I agree the fibre rollout was ridiculous and Vodafone is trying to obsolete it already with 5G.

            Reply
  2. Corky

     /  22nd January 2020

    ”They are now seeking an urgent Waitangi Tribunal hearing.”

    Hear the toothless tiger roar. 😂

    Reply
  3. duperez

     /  22nd January 2020

    Another side of the story.

    In the Herald: Audrey Young: Whānau Ora dispute all about control.
    “(The Government) replaced the Whānau Ora oversight group which had included six nominated by the Iwi Chairs with its own reference group. …

    Four of the women leading the case for an urgent hearing are Māori Party former leader, Turia, Māori Party former president, Dame Naida Glavish, and two former Māori Party list candidates, Dame Iritana Tāwhiwhirangi and Lady Tureiti Moxon.”

    The strident, bombastic Raukawa-Tait wants Henare to “Be the minister that we want to have confidence in?” Meaning be her lap dog letting she and her colleagues do their thing their way to the exclusion of other groups and strategies?

    I heard the Checkpoint interview. I suppose one person’s forceful advocate is another person’s harridan. I thought Peeni Henare handled the situation well.

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  22nd January 2020

      Spot on,Duperez. Maori just want the funding. After that is secured they will take it from there. They aren’t interested in anyone else joining the party. It’s a little like Turkey’s PM Erdoğan’s quip about riding the train of democracy to their object, then getting off.

      As for Peeni Henare.? If I was him I would keep away from the paepae. For as these power wahine are showing, Maori bullying is alive and well.

      Reply
    • Blazer

       /  22nd January 2020

      Raukawa -Tait ..Maoridoms Gilbert Myles…womens refuge chief [deleted, not necessary for that here even if their is some semblance of being related]
      Standing for mayor-anywhere…[deleted, this looks too much like a personal attack and smear and I don’t want it here. PG]

      Reply
  4. Zedd

     /  22nd January 2020

    oh dear.. another ‘poll’, sez ‘This maybe a one term Govt.’ ?

    Well frankly; even it t is.. at least it saw the demise of ‘Team Key & Co.’ (or most of them) 😀
    good riddance to; bad rubbish.. sez ai

    btw: the election is still about 8 months away.. lots of water to go under the bridges.. a loooong time in politics :/

    Reply
  5. Alan Wilkinson

     /  22nd January 2020

    Looks like a map of NZ’s social problems. How’s empathy doing as the solution?

    Reply
  1. Labour’s election support by district under threat? — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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