Covid-19 virus and effects spread around the world

Yesterday the Dow Jones dropped 1000 points (over 3%) and early Tuesday it is down another 1%, The NZX50 dropped a further 1.18% on Tuesday.other markets around the world are also down.

Fears and effects of the Covid-19n coronavirus are cited as drivers of the drops. Airlines and tourism in particular have already been significantly affected.

RNZ: Counting the cost of Covid-19s local impact

Hundreds of millions of dollars is likely to be shaved off the value of the economy for the first quarter, with estimates currently between 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points less than pre-virus forecasts.

The International Monetary Fund sees the virus as the biggest threat to the global economy.

Nearly every part of New Zealand’s economy is affected by the outbreak – but particularly exporters and importers who are largely dependent on the Chinese market.

About 50,000 Chinese visitors came through New Zealand’s arrivals gate in February last year, but that traffic has all but disappeared with New Zealand’s border closed to the travellers.

Retail NZ have reported about a third of its members say they are putting up to 30 percent less through their tills, cutting back on forward orders and dropping back staff hours.

Tertiary institutes stand to lose more than $100 million if students from China could not make it to class.

The list goes on, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited said it expected to lose up to $3 million in last minute cancellations.

Auckland Airport was in the same boat, with 45 return services to Mainland China reduced to eight, almost overnight. It downgraded its earnings by $5 million.

And to top it off, the primary sector was also dealing with a significant drought.

Silver Fern Farms chief executive Simon Limmer said it was the perfect storm.

The virus is not the only problem but is adding to other problems.

The virus increases it’s spread around the world.

RNZ – Coronavirus: Iran’s deputy health minister tests positive as outbreak worsens

Iran’s deputy health minister and an MP have both tested positive for the new coronavirus disease, as it struggles to contain an outbreak that has killed 15.

They have reported 95 cases, but the actual number is thought to be higher.

The director general of the World Health Organization (WHO) has said the sudden increase in cases in the country is “deeply concerning”.

More people have died in Iran from the virus than anywhere else outside China.

It is one of three global hot-spots causing great concern among health experts that the virus could be developing into a pandemic. The others are South Korea and northern Italy, where cases have surged in recent days.

On Tuesday an MP from the Iranian capital Tehran, Mahmoud Sadeghi, also said he had tested positive for the virus.

More than 80,000 cases of the Covid-19 respiratory disease have been reported worldwide since it emerged last year. About 2,700 patients have died – the vast majority in China.

Reuters: Coronavirus isolates Iran, strains South Korea, Italy

Iran’s coronavirus death toll rose to 16, the most outside China, heightening its international isolation as dozens of nations from South Korea to Italy accelerated emergency measures to curb the epidemic’s global spread.

Beyond mainland China, however, it has jumped to about 29 countries and territories, with some three dozen deaths, according to a Reuters tally. Growing outbreaks in Iran, Italy and South Korea are of particular concern.

A minor local impact – I was in a Dunedin pharmacy yesterday and they had a sign on their counter saying ‘We are out of stock of face masks, try again next week’.

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50 Comments

  1. David

     /  26th February 2020

    China seems to have peaked in cases thanks to their extraordinary steps to isolate millions unfortunately in the free world it will be largely voluntary and there is still a bit of Winter left to go so expect some extra deaths.
    The vaccine pipeline looks very promising and coronaviruses are nothing new and we have existing vaccines against some strains. Lets hope there is one before our winter.
    Only one cancellation so far albeit quite a large one but the Chinese tourist market is an odd one with a lot of the money spent in China to Chinese tourism operators and doesnt make it here. Its peak season so not much effect, the worry is the Aussie government and industry is spending up large to encourage holidaying at home and if that works we are in deep trouble.

    Reply
  2. david in aus

     /  26th February 2020

    This is looking almost like the Spanish influenza of 1918 which killed more people than WW!. Proportionally very few people will be affected but the fear and disruption to economic activity would likely be worse than standard recessions, in my opinion.

    Sharemarkets are richly valued, which in itself doesn’t mean an immediate downturn. But it does denote vulnerability to shocks to things like this. The coronavirus is a ‘Blackswan event’.

    Travel and commerce will be affected for several months. I feel for those in the tourism industry, without cashflow I wouldn’t be surprised if many of them went out of business.

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  26th February 2020

      seem to be a lot of BS events.
      Ebola,H1N1,Sars,….!

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  26th February 2020

        The last official pandemic was Swine Flu in 2009
        Who now remembers that?

        The death toll from C-19 still seems to be less than ‘seasonal flu’

        On February 10, 2018, Fortune reported that influenza in the United States was killing up to 4,000 Americans a week, likely to far outstrip the rate of deaths in the 2009–2010 season”
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%9318_United_States_flu_season

        Clearly we accept some virus deaths that are OK compared to others

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  26th February 2020

          Someone said that the Chinese death toll numbers would equate to 9 people here.

          400 + die of flu every year, but there’s not the same hysteria over that. People don’t stockpile useless masks and hoard hand sanitiser every flu season.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  26th February 2020

            Yes . Wearing a mask when it doesnt seem to be human to human aerosol transfer ( not that a very sick person might spread by coughs) is the primary method , instead its your hands touching surfaces or food even and then that hand touching mouth/nose/eyes

            Reply
        • Hmmm, Duker I think your analysis is a little flawed:

          Researchers from China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention describe the clinical findings on more than 72,000 COVID-19 cases reported in mainland China, which reveal a case-fatality rate of 2.3% (23 deaths per thousand cases)
          http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

          For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (less than 1 death per thousand cases
          https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

          If COVID-19 affects the same proportion of people as influenza did in 2018 then COVID-19 in the United States will kill up to 92,000 Americans a week.

          Reply
        • david in aus

           /  26th February 2020

          I think people are mistaking two different factors: death rate and contagiousness.

          Covid 19 has death rate approximately 20 to 30 times the standard flu. The reason it hasn’t killed as many people as the flu yet is that only 90,000 of people have been infected and not hundreds of millions or billions of people had the common flu infects. If half of NZ is infected with Covid19, the approximately death rate for 2.5 million people would be 50,000 people (at a mortality rate of 2%). Influenza has a death rate of 0.1% for comparison.

          Death rate is not the most important factor, if it is too high as in Ebola at 50%, the virus kills the hosts too quickly for it to become a widespread issue.The other problem with Covid19 is that it is as contagious as the common flu. That is why it is in so many countries, and is still spreading.

          Remember the Spanish Flu also had a death rate of 2%. There were mass graves for victims from that period.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  26th February 2020

            I wouldnt trust any numbers coming out of China, the people with infections and the number of deaths .
            A better way to check is the Cruise ship in Japan. The on board quarantine has practically non existent but provides a sort of ‘test tube ‘ environment where the numbers can be more reliable.

            Reply
            • Kitty Catkin

               /  26th February 2020

              The Spanish Flu killed about 3% of the world’s population. As it wouldn’t have been in all countries, the actual death rate must have been very high indeed.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  26th February 2020

              The death rate of those who caught it, I mean.

  3. The Dow Jones dropped another 3.15% (879.44 points) Tuesday.

    The NZX50 is currently down 1.99% today.

    Reply
    • Gerrit

       /  26th February 2020

      Those are the offered prices to see who is chickening out and wanting to sell cheap in case the values drop even further. The sharks are circling the bait fish.

      Volumes are way down so not much trade at the low prices offered.

      Real problem will be when the stocks volumes sold go up and the price remains low. Not seeing that happening.

      Some are betting the stock will go down more (the sellers) and some are betting to stocks are going back up again (the buyers).

      Without much volume being traded there is no worries. Shares can easily drop another 10% if volumes traded are down. Pressure to sell by the sharks.

      Reply
  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  26th February 2020

    My personal supply chain is impacted. I’m wanting to automate protection of our cabin water supply from careless city guests and components from Aliexpress are stuck in China. Doing it with NZ sourced components would at least triple the cost.

    Tourism must be getting hit but probably the big operators first. We don’t get international Chinese guests but the parties walking our streets have disappeared.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  26th February 2020

      Ahhhh…the concerns of the privileged class . Port Outbound..starboard home.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  26th February 2020

        The privileged class probably hasn’t spent the last couple of weeks trucking water for guests and pumping it for animals. Probably had lots of time to comment on blogs instead.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  26th February 2020

          I’ve had stuff all time to comment on blogs these last few months. I’m dreading its arrival. A lifetime of smoking before I finally chucked it in for good after an aortic aneurism repair job last year (& emphysema, which has improved since I biffed the fags) probably puts me in a higher risk category. I figure I am probably immune to bird flu & eel flu.

          Reply
    • Corky

       /  26th February 2020

      Alan…is your Aliexpress account still active? Mine and others I know have accounts blocked due to Aliexpress and the government working out how GST will be charged.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  26th February 2020

        Shouldnt be a problem to work out …did you not know that China has its own VAT/GST rate mostly at 16%….., as in NZ, exports are exempt.
        We could learn a few things from them as they dont exempt financial transactions and also include sales of residential property between consumers.
        Food for thought!
        [wonder if the moderation is occurring because of the word C_h_i_n_a ?]

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  26th February 2020

          It’s probably a browser issue and nothing to do with the changes to import GST.

          Reply
          • Kitty Catkin

             /  26th February 2020

            After 8 months, the GST thing is unlikely not to have been worked out by now. The changes were announced in July last year.

            Reply
          • Corky

             /  26th February 2020

            Says she who buys little online.

            Reply
            • As you have no idea what I do online, that is a particularly inane comment.

            • You have no idea what I do online, so that is a particularly inane remark.

            • Corky

               /  26th February 2020

              Seems like Kitty is sending me a message. If she wants inane comments, see Geeza’a below.

            • Gezza

               /  27th February 2020

              Huh? Which comment & how is it inane?

              I’m letting you with a warning if the explanation is satisfactory.

          • Kitty Catkin

             /  27th February 2020

            It is inane to comment on someone’s online buying when the commenter has no idea what these are and can’t possibly know.

            Reply
        • Corky

           /  26th February 2020

          What are you on about, Duker?😃

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  26th February 2020

            China has its own GST , why should it be a ‘software’ problem to make sure its paid for stuff destined for NZ at our rate.
            My earlier comment about CV-19 and the cruise ship went into moderation ?

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  26th February 2020

              Sounds like a good name for a 60’s band.

            • Corky

               /  26th February 2020

              ”China has its own GST , why should it be a ‘software’ problem to make sure its paid for stuff destined for NZ at our rate.”

              I wouldn’t have a clue. I don’t remember saying anything about a software problem. All I know is I and two other people I know could not access our accounts. I went to them hoping to use their accounts. Same issue. Then after reading Alan’s comments I tried my account again…no problem. ?!

            • Duker

               /  27th February 2020

              “others I know have accounts blocked due to Aliexpress and the government working out how GST will be charged.”

              ‘Working out’ is done by software unless you think its a building full of clerks.
              Surely you know Amazon ‘has worked it out ‘ and implemented its software a while back!
              I wonder if aliexpress plants virus’s on your computer to clean out your bank account

            • Corky

               /  27th February 2020

              ‘Working out’ is done by software unless you think its a building full of clerks.

              Yep, that software puts in a conference call to NZ officials to discuss the situation..the resolution and how protocols will be implemented.

              ”Surely you know Amazon ‘has worked it out ‘ and implemented its software a while back!”

              Yes, I’m aware of that. But…my last order ( book) had no GST applied. In fact you may have forgotten I brought this issue up ages ago when I first got pinged with GST added. You are wandering off the reservation again.

              ”I wonder if Aliexpress plants virus’s on your computer to clean out your bank account.”

              That may have happened. Mrs Becky Smith of Christchurch claimed after
              visiting the Aliexpress site her computer momentarily had all Chinese characters on screen. It didn’t last long. Apparently the only English language she could see during that time was an ad for Tommy’s Noodle House in Canton.

            • Duker

               /  27th February 2020

              https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117035637/150-overseas-internet-sites-fall-into-line-over-decembers-amazon-tax

              150 online businesses including Amazon …from Dec 2019

              Are there any of the rockets left that you can fire yourself into space to check personally ?

            • Corky

               /  27th February 2020

              Just telling what happened. It wasn’t applied to the book. It was applied to other products I have bought off Amazon…those that actually ship to New Zealand that is. You do shop online, Duker? Why do I think you don’t.

              ”150 online businesses including Amazon …from Dec 2019.”

              I’m well aware off that. I was the first to mention it on this blog.

              ”Are there any of the rockets left that you can fire yourself into space to check personally ?”

              You mean like your expertise on Oregon hdro capacity? Or your comments about Covid-19? 😁

            • Corky

               /  27th February 2020

              Oh, just in case you may not know Duker, many smaller overseas businesses do not apply GST to orders from NZ.

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  26th February 2020

        No, Corky, mine still operates normally as far as I can tell. The last delivery I had was in mid January.

        Reply
      • That doesn’t seem to be affecting online sales anywhere else, and Aliexpress doesn’t seem to be affected….except for yours.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  27th February 2020

          Aliexpress has definitely been affected by shipping delays which is no wonder considering cities locked down and airline flights cancelled there. But so far it seems to have been delays rather than terminations.

          Reply
  5. Gezza

     /  26th February 2020

    Cloudbuster ?

    Reply

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