Italy data shows elderly and those already ill at most risk

An analysis of deaths on Italy adds weight to what was already known – the elderly (especially over 70) and people with existing illnesses are most at risk from of dying from the Covid-19 coronavirus.

The average age of victims was 80.5 in the group being studied and 79.5 overall.

One specific problem I’ve been told about (from a health source) is that there are cases where people put on ventilators have appeared to recover, are taken off the ventilator and then die due to stress on their heart.

MSN/Bloomberg: 99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government is evaluating whether to extend a nationwide lockdown beyond the beginning of April, daily La Stampa reported Wednesday. Italy has more than 31,500 confirmed cases of the illness.

a close up of a logo: Italy Coronavirus Deaths

The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country’s coronavirus fatalities, finding that just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions.

More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease.

The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5.

But the biggest risk appears to be age (as people get older they tend to acquire illnesses) – especially to the 70+ age group.

a screenshot of a cell phone: Threat to the Elderly

 

As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease.

So a very low number of younger people.

All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.

While data released Tuesday point to a slowdown in the increase of cases, with a 12.6% rise, a separate study shows Italy could be underestimating the real number of cases by testing only patients presenting symptoms.

According to the GIMBE Foundation, about 100,000 Italians have contracted the virus, daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported. That would bring back the country’s death rate closer to the global average of about 2%.

So it looks like if you are healthy and under about 70 then the risks are low.

But people with existing illnesses, especially if they are over 70, are high risk.

This means that those people in particular should be especially cautious about what they do to help ensure that don’t catch the virus. Many people are self isolating to protect themselves.

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22 Comments

  1. David

     /  21st March 2020

    Which makes it strange that some countries are totally locking down when we can identify who the victims are likely to be and could lock them down while we find better treatments or a vaccine.
    Targeting seems pretty straightforward.

    Reply
    • Patzcuaro

       /  21st March 2020

      I’ve heard of elder care facilities already being in locked down. The weak link is the staff going in and out on a daily basis but no visitors allowed.

      Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  21st March 2020

      David, that would be most undramatic and the fearmongers would be appalled at the thought.

      Reply
  2. Duker

     /  21st March 2020

    Deja Vu with influenza deaths, the elderly and the sick are the most likely …who would have guessed ?
    The only thing thats really different is no vaccine like flu has, which has to be changed every year as the virus mutates.

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  21st March 2020

      This info (about the ones at risk) has been known for some time. Not that it’s made any difference to the panic and hysteria here, where 1 person in 125,000 has had it, no one’s died and the people who had it weren’t even sent to hospital.

      The fearmongers have a lot to answer for.

      Reply
  3. Corky

     /  21st March 2020

    Ventilators bring their own POSSIBLE set of side affects, especially for the elderly. If the patient was taken off ventilation and given oxyhydrogen( HHO) gas, the mortality rate would drop close to zero in such cases. Unlike oxygen, HHO is non toxic. You can breath it for years.The hydrogen in HHO would kick start body functions back to normal and start a healing process. The oxygen in HHO would support the status quo.

    I find it mind numbing we have all these simple therapies available, but the medical community pins all its hopes on a vaccine that may be years away.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  21st March 2020

      Sounds like a recipe for drowning to any chemist.

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  21st March 2020

        It’s not. You must remember the ratio of oxygen isn’t a great deal more than the average person breaths. And our gut makes hydrogen all the time. You can research many scientific papers on molecular hydrogen gas for therapeutic use.

        Google:

        Hydrogen molecule.

        ”Molecular hydrogen (H2) is a gas that is found in trace amounts in the air (0.00005%). It can act as an antioxidant and is thought to protect cells from oxidative stress-related damage. Hydrogen can be inhaled as a gas at low concentrations (1-3%) or infused into water. … Hydrogen therapy is generally considered safe.”

        I believe (1-4%) would be more accurate. It’s also non toxic.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  21st March 2020

          Molecular H2O is water, ice or steam. Gaseous H2 and O2 are a highly explosive mixture forming H2O. Not for nothing this mixture may also be referred to as Knallgas (Scandinavian and German Knallgas: “bang-gas”).

          Reply
          • Kitty Catkin

             /  21st March 2020

            Well, it would certainly cure what ailed you. You wouldn’t be ill any more.

            Reply
          • Corky

             /  21st March 2020

            Correct. It’s an extremely volatile mixture…if in containment. However, breathing it through a cannula, with the machine producing no more that 18 litres per minute (1-4%), it is quite safe. The gas defuses with oxygen in the nostrils as it is breathed. Above that ratio, the potential for an explosion is possible – and although no cases have been reported- theoretically it could explode in a persons lungs. That wouldn’t look good. No one wants to see Uncle Barney expelling fire from his lungs. Unfortunately this possibility has put many researchers off. They stick with straight hydrogen. Although straight hydrogen is phenomenal, it has yet to produce some of the miracle cures HHO has.

            I

            Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  21st March 2020

        HHO is used in welding torches. Thanks, but no thanks to the idea of breathing it.

        Brown’s Gas is regarded as pseudoscience.

        We’ve all heard what happens when someone inhales hydrogen and then talks. 😀

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  21st March 2020

          ‘HHO is used in welding torches. Thanks, but no thanks to the idea of breathing it.”

          Of course you wouldn’t. But you are Google schooled and have no practical experience. You rely on what others say…which isn’t very scholarly. Would you take medicine made with horse urine? Maybe you should have.😁

          Browns gas is also used to decarbonise engines.

          ”Brown’s Gas is regarded as pseudoscience.”

          Blah..blah.blah. Instead of trolling, have you any suggestions for helping your fellow man…apart from hanging out on a blog all day?

          ”We’ve all heard what happens when someone inhales hydrogen and then talks. ”

          Yes, and we have all heard what happens when patients receive too much oxygen….they can die. I’ll take the squeaky no toxic voice, thank you!😀

          Reply
          • Corky

             /  21st March 2020

            Helium and Hydrogen can affect the voice.

            Reply
            • Kitty Catkin

               /  21st March 2020

              It’s true that HHO is used for welding and called ‘bang-gas’. It’s hardly trolling to point that out, whereas your insulting remarks do come into that category.

              I don’t blindly rely on what others say; one has some discernment. If I did, I’d believe all sorts of pseudoscience nonsense as well as obvious drivel about people and places.

            • Corky

               /  22nd March 2020

              Any tips to offer your fellow man, Kitty? Come on, give us something.
              Maybe how to use knitting needles as barbecue prongs?

              ”I don’t blindly rely on what others say; one has some discernment.”

              Of course you do. Are you telling me you have a Browns Gas machine in your home? Of course you don’t. I do. I have had one for 2 years.
              All you do by talking about pseudoscience is to show your ignorance and your nature. Which seems wrapped up in your bubble worldview.

              A mild solution of hydrogen peroxide can be used as a sanitiser on all surfaces, even the skin, although some would debate that. I have never had a problem with a mild 3% solution. It has to be food grade and free of preservatives that most HP products contain. Alan would be schooled up in this.

              35% undiluted HP is where it starts getting dangerous. That will burn the skin. The power of nature is truly amazing.

              Some people even use a weak dilution as a lung spray. They swear by it.
              It would be a LAST resort for me

            • Corky

               /  22nd March 2020

              Well, maybe I was wrong. Browns gas is go in China. I doubt the West will accept that.

              Pseudoscience? Or the reason their death rate has dropped?

              Quote:

              ”2.3 Timely providing effective oxygen therapy, including nasal catheter and mask oxygenation and nasal high-flow oxygen therapy. If possible, inhalation of mixed hydrogen and oxygen (H2/O2: 66.6%/33.3%) can be applied.”

              The mask is out with BG. However, Chinese and Western standards are way different. If the Chinese lose a patient, it’s no big deal.. so it will be a mask with a running rate of 7-10%. What have to lose if you are dying?

              View at Medium.com

  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  21st March 2020

    This looks to be an important paper and critique of the British modelling:
    https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions

    Reply
  5. Alan Wilkinson

     /  21st March 2020

    You have to wonder how much the elderly death rate is influenced by putting them at the back of the queue for ventilators.

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  21st March 2020

      There are times when it’s pointless and cruel to prolong the inevitable. I knew a very intelligent man who had early onset dementia; no one who knew him would have done anything but provide nursing care when he had pneumonia.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  21st March 2020

        Sure, but in extremity medics may have to make less comfortable decisions.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  21st March 2020

          They do so already, late 80s and otherwise healthy but frail, they let nature take its course as pulling out all the stops might give you another 6-12 months but bed ridden and needing constant care

          Reply

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