Covid-19 climbs around the world, last day before NZ lockdown

Cases of the Covid-19 coronavirus and deaths continue to climb around the world, with many countries having significant increases.

Currently (JHU data):

  • Total confirmed 407,485
  • Total deaths 18,227
  • Total recovered 104,234

 

The February spike will be China, but the rest of the world is now picking up.

The toll across the United Kingdom rose by 87 in the last day to 422 (a 26% increase) and confirmed cases were up 21% to over 8,000. They are still having problems with crowded trains.

Spain has had more than 500 deaths in a day, making a total of 2,800 who’ve died from its 39,676 cases.

Germany has had a relatively low number of deaths from 31,991 cases but have jumped recently to 149.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Either the spread or detection is slow in most parts of Africa.

Conspicuous is the lack of reported cases and deaths in Russia.

Official: Russia has no ‘clear picture’ of extent of Covid-19 outbreak

Russia, which shares a border with China and has a population of 144 million, has so far reported 495 cases of the coronavirus but no confirmed fatalities.

“The problem is that the volume of testing is very low and nobody has a clear picture” of the situation in Russia and the world, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin told President Vladimir Putin during a meeting.

“The picture that is unfolding is serious,” said Sobyanin

This photo from a store in Moscow suggests it is a major concern of not a problem there.

A man, wearing a protective mask, walks past empty shelves in a store, due to the fear of Covid-19 outbreak in Moscow March 17, 2020. — Reuters pic

JHU data shows 519 cases in India and 10 deaths, which seem very low for such a densely populated country.

India’s 1.3b people to enter ‘total lockdown’

India is to impose a nationwide lockdown in an attempt to slow the spread of the coronavirus, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced.

The restrictions will apply from midnight local time and will be enforced for 21 days.

“There will be a total ban on venturing out of your homes,” Modi said in a televised address.

The US could soon become the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic after a ‘very large acceleration’ in cases, WHO warns

  • The US could soon become the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic, the World Health Organisation warned Tuesday.
  • A WHO spokeswoman, Margaret Harris, noted that there had been a “very large acceleration” in cases in the US in recent days.
  • In the past 24 hours, 85% of all new coronavirus cases were in the US and Europe. In the US, 553 people have died from COVID-19.
  • President Donald Trump has refused to impose a national lockdown, however, and has instead insisted the US will soon be “open for business.”

Current John Hopkins data shows 49,768 cases in the US (third to China and Italy and ahead of Spain) and 600 deaths.

Despite this Pence says White House not considering a nationwide coronavirus lockdown (a number of states are in lockdown) and:

Trump, during Fox News coronavirus town hall, calls for re-starting economy by Easter: ‘We have to get back to work’

President Trump said Tuesday during a Fox News virtual townhall that he wants the country’s economy re-opened by Easter amid questions over how long people should stay home and businesses should remain closed to slow the spread of coronavirus.

Speaking from the Rose Garden alongside others on his coronavirus taskforce, Trump said he “would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter.” The holiday this year lands on April 12.

Trump argued he doesn’t want “to turn the country off” and see a continued economic downfall from the pandemic. He also said he worries the U.S. will see “suicides by the thousands” if coronavirus devastates the economy.

“We lose thousands and thousands of people a year to the flu. We don’t turn the country off,” Trump said during the interview.

“We lose much more than that to automobile accidents. We don’t call up the automobile companies and say stop making cars. We have to get back to work.”

That’s contrary to how most countries are handling Covid-19, and also major US states.

And contrary to US officials:

During a coronavirus town hall with U.S. forces around the world, Defense Secretary Mark Esper estimated it could take up to 10 weeks, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army Gen. Mark Milley went a little further saying he expected the military to be dealing with the virus for the next three months.

Currently in Australia there are 2,139 confirmed cases and 8 deaths.

Many New Zealanders who have suddenly lost jobs in Australia and will get no Government assistance there are trying to come back here.

Australian states have taken different actions, but some restrictions have been applied to the whole country. Official information:

  • Tight new restrictions on weddings, funerals, fitness classes, beauty salons, arcades and play centres will be implemented from 11:59pm, 25 March. An international travel ban (with some exemptions) will also be introduced. Read more.
  • Some states and territories are closing their borders, meaning anyone entering will be required to self-isolate for 14 days. Currently, Tasmania, the Northern Territory, Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia have announced they will close their borders. Essential services are generally exempt from this requirement but some states require undertakings and/or evidence be provided to prove that entry into the state is essential.
  • School closures (both government and non-government) are a matter of the respective state and territory education authorities. Read more.
    (Schools aren’t being closed yet in Queensland but parents can choose to keep their children at home).
  • All pubs, licensed clubs and hotels (excluding accommodation), places of worship, gyms, indoor sporting venues, cinemas, casinos must be closed. Restaurants and cafes can offer takeaway options. Supermarkets, pharmacies and essential services can remain open. Read more.

Cases in New Zealand (confirmed and probable) jumped to 152 yesterday. We go into full lockdown (except for essential services, shops and petrol stations) at 11:59 pm tonight.

A state of emergency will be declared in Parliament today. A UBI is being considered as one option.

People needing to travel on domestic flights, trains and Cook Strait ferries to get home before the country moves into level 4 lock-down tomorrow night will be able to continue using the passenger services until midnight on Friday.

 

Leave a comment

46 Comments

  1. David

     /  25th March 2020

    You cant shut the economy down on the level NZ has for longer than 30 days, we are lucky we have agriculture. Dont forget in Italy most people still went to work and then locked down after hours (the iron workers union has just gone on strike there), there are many more industries in the areas that the US has locked down that are deemed essential like construction that are still operating. The UK is still largely at work. The world is at our level 3.
    Our lockdown is brutal and unsustainable unless the country bankrupts itself with a multi generational debt for a virus that has a mortality rate of less than 1% and only hits those either very old or with serious underlying conditions.

    Reply
    • Griff.

       /  25th March 2020

      for a virus that has a mortality rate of less than 1% and only hits those either very old

      Yesss
      lets look at the diamond princess a neatly contained data point .
      Total Confirmed
      712
      Total Deaths
      10
      Total Recovered
      587
      That is a lot more than 1%
      Also of interest It has been 25 days since the final person was evacuated from the ship.yet the total cases do not yet equal resolved cases.

      Those 115 cases over hanging are made up of some very sick people who are most likely hospitalized in intensive care. It is certain that more of these cases will result in death or long term disability .
      What we learn from this is you can not make declarations of death rates until all cases are cleared.

      with serious underlying conditions.

      Many of us will have underlying conditions that could result in death from Covid 19
      High blood pressure or obstructed arteries are common as you age . These conditions are not death sentence for instance my father lived with high blood pressure and high cholesterol for forty years only to die of bowel cancer. If you have such a condition the chance of you dying from Covid 19 increases greatly .
      The youth are a lot more robust .Most younger people that get this will live to talk about it
      However they will continue with life long health issues as a result .

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  25th March 2020

        The people on the Diamond Princess were mostly old, except for the staff.

        It’s known that the chances of anyone who isn’t old and with existing conditions dying are minuscule. But that goes largely ignored.

        Reply
        • Griff.

           /  25th March 2020

          It’s known that the chances of anyone who isn’t old and with existing conditions dying are minuscule

          FFS that includes you and most of us on here .
          Asthma is one of the pre existing conditions and you are “old”
          Wanna die because every one else thinks a few extra dollars are more important?

          It is a huge joke that the righties are all of a sudden worried about poor people dying.
          It is also total bullshit they are worried only about their future bank balance.

          Reply
          • Kitty Catkin

             /  25th March 2020

            I am not old, thank you.

            Would I consider that the whole country should close down, that people would probably be driven to suicide, that domestic violence levels should rise and the country go bust over a disease that has so far affected 200 people out of 5,000,000 with no deaths or even serious illness because it might, just might, kill me if I caught it ?

            No. The rest of the people would pay too high a price for my safety that I should be looking out for myself.

            Reply
    • Blazer

       /  25th March 2020

      you are one selfish koont…fuck the economy…it has survived worse.

      Reply
      • Pink David

         /  25th March 2020

        “fuck the economy…it has survived worse.”

        You are the selfish one. The economy isn’t something abstract and separate, it is the sum of human activity. There is a death toll from the impact these choices will have.

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  25th March 2020

          do you accept it has faced…worse?

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  25th March 2020

            Not in my lifetime.

            Reply
          • Corky

             /  25th March 2020

            Not in mine…and historical comparisons are still a work in progress. I’m downticking you for plain nastiness, Blazer.

            Reply
          • Pink David

             /  25th March 2020

            “do you accept it has faced…worse?”

            No modern economy has faced this, nor has there ever been a global shutdown on this scale before. Not in the industrial age at least.

            Reply
          • Pink David

             /  25th March 2020

            “do you accept it has faced…worse?”

            Just to add, if you want an analogue, the most likely it is Zimbabwe under Mugabe, but applied to the whole world.

            Reply
  2. Reply
    • Duker

       /  25th March 2020

      As usual every government body is contradictory

      MoH- “A Ministry of Health statement said although people will be instructed to stay home from tomorrow, it doesn’t mean people must remain indoors at all times.

      “It’s important during this period to stress that you may go for a walk, run, ride or other physical exercise, including surfing, but always keep a 2m distance from other people [not in your household] at all times.”

      Surf shops report a mini boom in sales

      Police- “But police commissioner Mike Bush said if you need to get in a car and you’re not going to an essential service then this does not meet the criteria.
      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12319450

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  25th March 2020

        If they start getting irrational and rule following for the sake of it public support will disappear very fast.

        Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  25th March 2020

      This one likes the sound of her own voice too much.

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  25th March 2020

        I am beginning to think so. The cafe where a friend and I had coffee yesterday has a television and Ms Wiles was holding forth as were others (it was impossible to ignore)

        If they try to stop people driving, there will be a backlash.

        Reply
    • Pink David

       /  25th March 2020

      I have one question on that ‘flatten the curve’ messaging;

      Why is the health care capacity like flat?

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  25th March 2020

        Perhaps they mean that they want us all to flatline and the economy to do so.

        The idea that builders have to leave halfbuilt houses exposed to the elements is sheer insanity. They’ll have their work to do all over again and the delay for people moving into their new house will be maddening. If someone’s sold a house and needs to be out of it, they will be in dire straits as will everyone else in the chain. Someone I knew lived in a garage when there was a delay with their new house, but it was one that had been done up to act as a spare room, Even so, they were glad to be out of it.

        Reply
      • I guess that’s presuming there is no increase in health resources. They could be boosted, as ours are, but there is no way of lifting health care capacity to anywhere near the level of serious Covid outbreak, as Italy, Spain, France and other countries are finding out. And it’s not just a matter of throwing a heap of money at it, a lot of healthcare relies on expertise and stressed hospitals can’t keep up with workload let alone train up more people in a hurry.

        The whole curve thing is a simplification to illustrate something, I don’t think it was ever intended as an accurate display of data.

        Reply
        • Pink David

           /  25th March 2020

          ” They could be boosted, as ours are, but there is no way of lifting health care capacity to anywhere near the level of serious Covid outbreak, as Italy, Spain, France and other countries are finding out”

          I’m not saying it should be lifted to the ‘level of seriousness’, I am asking a serious question as to why it is not lifted at all. The line is flat. No increase. This is the most important document they have on which they are setting this policy.

          “And it’s not just a matter of throwing a heap of money at it, a lot of healthcare relies on expertise and stressed hospitals can’t keep up with workload let alone train up more people in a hurry.”

          The sooner you start the better then.

          “And it’s not just a matter of throwing a heap of money at it, a lot of healthcare relies on expertise and stressed hospitals can’t keep up with workload let alone train up more people in a hurry.”

          So it’s shit? This has been put together as a key document to illustrate the situation. Why is such a fundamental part of the equation missing?

          Reply
      • Griff.

         /  25th March 2020

        Jesus H cant you work it out for your self?
        opps a trumpie = no clue.

        It takes time to train up nurses and get the equipment and facility’s organised .
        If we let it develop unchecked we will not be able to ramp up hospital capacity in time instead we will end up with Triage.

        Triage: Deciding who gets sent home to die and who gets a chance at life at the hospital gates.
        Over seventy / sixty / fifty go home and die, Limited IC hospital beds are reserved for the young with more chance of survival.
        This is the situation in Italy for the last week and will be the outlook for New York and other USA states very soon.

        Reply
        • Pink David

           /  25th March 2020

          “It takes time to train up nurses and get the equipment and facility’s organised .”

          Yes it takes time. But its not a lot of time. You are treating a single condition, training people to a suitable level is not a long process.

          “ramp up hospital capacity”

          Where is this effort? Where are the army field units being setup? Where are the temporary facilities being setup?

          Once again, the line they are showing is flat. That is clearly based on the fact they are not increasing the capacity.

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  25th March 2020

            its called prioritising existing capacity…i.e non urgent cases deferred,elective surgeries postponed.

            Reply
            • Pink David

               /  25th March 2020

              Is that the only plan?

            • Blazer

               /  25th March 2020

              no,but its a good start.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  25th March 2020

              It’s not a good start if it costs the country orders of magnitude more than boosting medical capacity to achieve the same outcome.

  3. Alan Wilkinson

     /  25th March 2020

    Everything our medics believe about the epidemiology of the virus spread may be wrong. New study says half the UK population likely already immune:
    https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  25th March 2020

      Don’t tell Griff, he’ll have palpitations about the source.

      Yes, v interesting. Wonder if it explains the differences between the Italian and German fatality rates.

      Reply
      • Key point is the possibility that the reason for a high fatality in Italy is that the virus may have got a hold in hospitals and rest homes, if so hit a very vulnerable section of society, hence the skew towards older and already sick people.

        10% of those who have it are health workers.

        More controversially it suggests lockdowns should be lifted.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  25th March 2020

          The results of the UK antibody survey next week may turn current wisdom upside down rapidly.

          It will also be revealing to see what infection rates in medical staff have been.

          Reply
          • Griff.

             /  25th March 2020

            It is a cut and paste from another source Alan .
            I have already seen the graph posted elsewhere from the original source and read KB were PG found The WUWT link .
            Still with WUWT you should check the original source to confirm they have not altered the graph as they have been caught doing many thousands of times .

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  25th March 2020

              The graph is the least interesting part of the article, Griff

        • Kitty Catkin

           /  25th March 2020

          Italy has 206 people per sq.km. we have 18.

          10% of the dead were over 90.

          Reply
  4. Poll from Stuff/Utting Research:

    93% said they would support a lockdown – with people asked not to leave their homes – in any region of New Zealand where the virus was “most prevalent”

    95% agreed with the Government’s decision to cancel large events

    83% supported the Government providing a multi-billion dollar stimulus package

    58% supported closing schools, 22% opposed, 20% unsure

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120534052/coronavirus-poll-shows-kiwis-back-harsh-measures-but-are-extremely-worried-about-virus

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  25th March 2020

      Doesn’t mean much when the public lacks so much hard information.

      Reply
    • David

       /  25th March 2020

      Lets poll again in a week and see where that 93% support is.

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  25th March 2020

        Not among people in places where none of the 205 are.

        Do people realise that up to 230,000 people have flue every year and 5-600 die of it ?

        Even the presentation on television is alarmist ; not in content, which is the same old thing over and over, but the images and colours.

        Reply
  5. Some logistical problems for DOC.

    Reply

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