Open Forum – Sunday 29 March

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52 Comments

  1. lurcher1948

     /  29th March 2020


    My dogs are starting to look at me like this

    Reply
  2. Duker

     /  29th March 2020

    nhccselfisolation@health.govt.nz

    Is the email line to dob in those non essential businesses not self isolating

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  29th March 2020

      I can’t do it, Duker. Mine sell those divine Soft Jube lollies I totally adore.

      Reply
  3. Duker

     /  29th March 2020

    US CDC Weekly Flu/Pneumonia report

    “Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on March 26, 2020, 7.4% of the deaths occurring during the week ending March 7, 2020 (week 11) were due to P&I.
    P&I is pneumonia and influenza The data is from about 2 weeks back but shows how serious the flu epidemic was – still is apparently
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2

    As we all know flu is like covid-19 as its a human carried virus that attacks the respiratory system and is spread from person to person in a similar way.
    Its not the ‘same’ but like

    Other diseases that arent ‘like’ covid19 are , plague, cancer, mental illness, heart disease , just for those who have limited medical understanding of human diseases

    other viruses that are not like CV-19 are poliomyletis, meningoccal viruses , osteomyelitis ( which I had) and so on

    Reply
  4. lurcher1948

     /  29th March 2020

    Wow,who in this picture could have Covid-19..No personal space anywhere,so.always remember Donald Trump looked directly at an eclipse without eye protection,he’s not the sharpest knife
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUJYg58XgAQQOGo?format=jpg&name=4096×4096

    Reply
  5. Barbara McKenzie

     /  29th March 2020

    Are we prepared to wreck the NZ economy, destroy jobs and businesses, do huge damage to mental and physical health, and normalise draconian measures of control, for a a flu epidemic? https://www.anti-empire.com/americas-corona-tsar-andrew-fauci-concedes-the-coronavirus-may-be-just-a-bad-flu-with-a-fatality-rate-of-0-1/?fbclid=IwAR3gTF0PDKyBINmEWnquWxP2-Pd-0AJZ3lAZpEjW1hRfmJJLVK2P-99U7Y8

    Reply
    • David

       /  29th March 2020

      https://spectator.us/deadly-coronavirus-still-far-clear-covid-19/

      It seems that the big problem is people have to be in hospital on a ventliator for weeks and it ties up so much resource. The recording of the cause of death is chucking up alarming figures, generally if you have lung cancer then that is what is listed as killing you even if it was the flu or something else that carried you off at the end. With Covid they list it as Covid even if you were only a short while off dying anyway and when you combine that with severely under counting the infected people the numbers look appalling.
      There is too much politics and media alarmism.

      Reply
      • Conspiratoor

         /  29th March 2020

        “With Covid they list it as Covid even if you were only a short while off dying anyway and when you combine that with severely under counting the infected people the numbers look appalling.”

        The BS factor should be reasonably easy to test for simply by tracking the total daily death count by recorded cause. If any or all of the big 6 fall at the same rate as C19 deaths is rising, you know the data is being manipulated to fit the message. In the US the numbers are high enough to pick up this trend

        Reply
    • Then there’s this: COVID-19 Mortality Rate ‘Ten Times Worse’ Than Seasonal Flu, Says Dr. Anthony Fauci

      At a congressional hearing this afternoon, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, suggested that COVID-19 is is considerably more dangerous than run-of-the-mill flu. He observed, “The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality rate of 10 times that. That’s the reason I want to emphasize we have to stay ahead of the game in preventing this.”

      https://reason.com/2020/03/11/covid-19-mortality-rate-ten-times-worse-than-seasonal-flu-says-dr-anthony-fauci/

      And this: The coronavirus may be deadlier than the 1918 flu: Here’s how it stacks up to other pandemics

      So far, COVID-19 is proving to be more infectious with an R naught of around 2 than the seasonal flu, which has an R naught of 1.3 and infects up to 49 million Americans each year. Based on the WHO’s most recent mortality rate of 3.4%, the COVID-19 outbreak is shaping up to be at least 34 times deadlier than the flu, which has a mortality rate of about 0.1% and kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year across the globe. If the current mortality for CV-19 rate holds at 4.5%, it would make this coronavirus 45 times deadlier than the flu.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-flu-heres-how-it-stacks-up-to-other-pandemics.html

      It’s difficult to compare death per cases rates. Many cases of Covid-19 are not included in the total cases, but the same applies to the flu – many people will not report that, as it is common it is probably less likely.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  29th March 2020

        Different numbers Pete
        As is pointed out, if you are over 70 and have multiple illnesses, the CV-19 is listed as cause of death . When its all of your illnesses and your time has come.

        What about if you are a 70 yr old oncology patient, they are always more likely to die from an ‘infection’ of some kind because of the treatment. Covid -19 is just another one, if it was winter in Australia or NZ they would put it down to flu/pneumonia

        As the CDC in US is saying “flu” is responsible for around 1000 deaths per week ,or 7.5% of all deaths, thats epidemic level too , but not even an especially bad flu season when its more like 4000 per week

        Reply
    • From that same article: For example, Li et al. report a mean interval of 9.1 to 12.5 days between the onset of illness and hospitalization.

      That seems like a slow onset – potentially a number of days of circulating and transmitting before deteriorating. This also suggests that case totals will lead, hospitalisation totals will lag, and deaths will take some time afterwards to follow. That’s what seems too be happening in Italy now. And it suggests that the US is heading for much worse statistics.

      Trying to work out death versus case rates seems pointless at this stage, we seem nowhere near the peak yet so don’t know what the eventual death rate will be.

      Reply
    • Griff.

       /  29th March 2020

      The death rate from Covid 19 in the USA is at 400 a day and doubling every three days.
      Only one state really has a large number of cases yet with half a dozen others catching up quickly .
      The death rate from flu in the USA is on average about 1,000 a week.
      Can you work out the difference?.
      Here is a hint.
      In about five days more will be dying from Covid 19 in the USA daily than normally die from the flu in a week.
      The increasing death rate will not stop there,.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  29th March 2020

        So those 1000 a week and 24,000 so far ( might be 2 week old data) dont matter because their virus didnt have the right name ? dead is dead isnt it
        And thats nearing the end of the flu season so they expect to decline, 2 years ago it was 4000 a week and over 60,000 in total

        see the similarities

        Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  29th March 2020

      Barbara; the answer seems to be yes. The real death rate seems to be a fraction of the perceived one, but that’s a bagatelle.It’s a brilliant excuse to establish a police state.

      Let’s hope that the meanspirited ban on even a short drive that’s not to the supermarket and the heartless closing down of newspapers and magazines will anger people enough to make them see that we are paying too high a price by way of loss of civil liberties.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  29th March 2020

        ‘ heartless closing down of newspapers and magazines ‘….hilarious,hopeless observation…they’ve been closing down bigtime before C19.

        Just imagine if the Herald was delivered to your letterbox and it was…DRIZZLING!

        Reply
    • Fauci said the curbs on social interaction are not an overreaction and there’s no specific date when Americans can gather in large crowds — at NBA games, say.
      https://www.cnn.com/videos/sports/2020/03/27/stephen-curry-anthony-fauci-instagram-live-sports-coronavirus-mxp-vpx.hln

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  29th March 2020

        An American friend says that a bad flu virus season there can kill 64,000 people.

        Reply
  6. Kitty Catkin

     /  29th March 2020

    The magazine and newspaper ban may seem like a small thing, but it’s a creepy indication that this government is seeking total control over our lives. Already we can’t go anywhere but the supermarket, not even for a drive to break the endless tedium. No one who didn’t happen to have visited a library before they were closed will have anything new to read.

    Now the only new reading material for many people has been declared inessential. We can’t buy clothes, appliances or shoes; we can’t go out for a coffee or to the pictures. People can’t buy flour, sugar or even potatoes.

    Couldn’t we have been left the papers and magazines as a morale thing ?

    Reply
    • duperez

       /  29th March 2020

      There will be some smacked down by paranoia rather than covi-19.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  29th March 2020

        For sure. And it’s a worry when there seem to be no judicial constraints on it. We can’t tolerate that for long.

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  29th March 2020

          However, framing America’s response as a direct trade-off between the health of its people and the health of its economy could ultimately harm both, according to LinkedIn principal economist Guy Berger.
          “There’s no economy without people, so getting them healthy is the way to get the economy off the ground,” Berger told Business Insider.
          “That’s why the public health measures are so important and why they’re essential, even though they’re hard in the short run, that’s the only way to really end up rebooting the economy,” he said.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  29th March 2020

            Half the population can have the virus with no symptoms. 90% of those who have symptoms recover at home. 90% of those hospitalised don’t die.

            There is no need to “get the people healthy” to get the economy healthy. Why do the media publish crap uncritically?

            Reply
    • lurcher1948

       /  29th March 2020

      Damn let those kids walk the streets, getting covid-19 putting rubbish rags in our mailboxes,Kitty, its not a loss of free speech you know,but loss of Kiitty litter tray paper

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  29th March 2020

        I see no reason for papers not to be sold in supermarkets as they always have been, or magazines to be sold there as well.

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  29th March 2020

          It’s a loss of free speech for the writers in the papers and a loss of our freedom to buy and read them.

          How can anyone catch a virus from walking in the street ? It has to be caught from someone else who has it. It’s not like hayfever.

          Reply
          • Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19

            According to current evidence, COVID-19 virus is transmitted between people through respiratory droplets and contact routes.1-6

            Droplet transmission occurs when a person is in in close contact (within 1 m) with someone who has respiratory symptoms (e.g. coughing or sneezing,) and is therefore at risk of having his/her mucosae (mouth and nose) or conjunctiva (eyes) exposed to potentially infective respiratory droplets (which are generally considered to be > 5-10 μm in diameter). Droplet transmission may also occur through fomites in the immediate environment around the infected person.7 Therefore, transmission of the COVID-19 virus can occur by direct contact with infected people and indirect contact with surfaces in the immediate environment or with objects used on the infected person (e.g. stethoscope or thermometer).

            Airborne transmission is different from droplet transmission as it refers to the presence of microbes within droplet nuclei, which are generally considered to be particles < 5μm in diameter, and which result from the evaporation of larger droplets or exist within dust particles. They may remain in the air for long periods of time and be transmitted to others over distances greater than 1 m.

            https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

            Transmission by touch seems to be the biggest problem. That’s why physical contact, and doing anything that involves contact, are not recommended. Hence the closure of playgrounds, and also dog walk areas which have access gates.

            There are also transmission factors that are currently unknown.

            Reply
            • Griff.

               /  29th March 2020

              Transmission by touch seems to be the biggest problem.

              I have been carrying a spray bottle of meths mixed with little water and detergent in the car
              Before I have to touch anything outside of home I try to spray it first.
              If i can not, like in the supermarket, I am very careful of not transferring virus from anything I have touched. I spray my hands and keys etc as soon as I get back to the car.
              Anything that enters my environs either gets a spray or washed straight away before it comes inside .

              Meths here in NZ is almost pure ethyl alcohol with some nasty tasting shit added to stop alkys drinking it . The water is so it takes longer to dry and the detergent is to act as a surfactant so it spreads better.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  29th March 2020

              Meths is methanol with the purple colouring agent added to identify it and prevent drinking. I would expect it to be as effective as ethanol against the virus but more volatile.

            • Griff.

               /  29th March 2020

              I thought that too Alan until I looked it up before using it as a contact cleaner. Retail Methylated Sprits in NZ is almost pure ethanol.
              ERMA New Zealand Makes Meths Safer

              Methylated spirits bought over the counter from 21 June 2007 will no longer contain the poisonous substance methanol.

              ERMA New Zealand Chief Executive, Rob Forlong, says methylated spirits (meths) containing ethanol denatured with up to 2 per cent methanol, has been available to the public for decades as a cleaner, solvent and fuel.

              However, concerns raised for years by coroners, medical practitioners, social workers and the public about damage to the health, and in extreme cases death, of people drinking meths as an alcohol substitute had prompted ERMA New Zealand to reassess the substance.

              “The result has been the decision that only formulations of methylated spirits without methanol should be available for sale to the public,” Mr Forlong said.

              Current stocks of methylated spirits containing methanol would be phased out over the next six months, and would be no longer available to the public over the counter from 21 June. Sales of methylated spirits containing methanol to industrial users would not be affected.

              FWIW Alky’s filter meth though a loaf of bread to remove the additives.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  29th March 2020

              You are right Griff. My latest bottle has no contents info other than the additive. The previous bottle says 95% ethanol. No wonder the alkys love it now.

          • lurcher1948

             /  29th March 2020

            Always remember this is a rightwinger commenting on general debate, Kiwiblog
            Humble Capitalist
            That could get awfully messy with the IQ of some of our citizens
            Thumb up 7 Thumb down 3LOG IN TO REPLY REPORTMARCH 29, 2020 9:00AM

            Reply
            • Kitty Catkin

               /  29th March 2020

              People can’t catch it if there’s no one anywhere near them, e.g, in an empty street.

            • Gezza

               /  29th March 2020

              Yeah, they can Kitty. The virus can survive on various surfaces for days. I’ve seen “up to 72 hours” cited in numerous articles. A few others have cited longer periods of time. The problem is that one has to remember every time one has touched any surface someone else might have, & then try & remember whether one washed or disfected your hands after touching anything that might have had a live virus on it.

              It’s also made me realise how often I touch my face – without registering that. Like, scratching an itch, or rubbing an eye, or propping your chin in uour hand, or putting a hand under your face when lying down.

  7. David

     /  29th March 2020

    Some interesting work going on with all sorts of trials, its hard finding coverage of what looks promising.
    Remdesivir is one that might : https://cen.acs.org/biological-chemistry/infectious-disease/initial-remdesivir-data-tell-us/98/i13

    Leronlimab is being tested at the hospital my brother works at, when he isnt self isolating : https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8161973/Two-COVID-29-patients-taken-ventilators-days-experimental-treatment.html

    Even a gout cure may help : https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-study-look-using-gout-drug-prevent-lung-complications-deaths-covid-19-1493966

    Finding a way of shortening the stay in hospital would make a lot of difference, stopping young fit healthy peoples immune system from going into overdrive would help.

    Reply
  8. Zedd

     /  29th March 2020

    only a few beers in the fridge.. no herbz in the bowl.. what to do ?
    Oh dear How SAD.. never mind
    life goes on.. guitar still sounds fine 🙂

    Reply
  9. seer

     /  29th March 2020

    Pokokohua merika!

    Some fools think the US is wonderful nation spreading freedom and all things wonderful to the rest of the world. “War mongering moron” is how this article (politely) describes it.

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/in-a-time-of-crisis-us-foreign-policy-gets-worse.html#more

    Reply
  10. seer

     /  29th March 2020


    R A Zimmerman probably recorded this around the time of his Tempest album, about 50 years after the JFK assassination. Maybe he has one about 911 that will come out posthumously.

    Reply
  11. lurcher1948

     /  29th March 2020

    PG lets bring beauty into the world, im tired of the nastiness on blogs, let’s embrace real music, and a country in strife, Italy…i hope my lovely New Zealand doesn’t have the pain i would die to be able to sing like this man,(too many ferals, from the right who hate) they are encouraged

    Reply
  12. Alan Wilkinson

     /  29th March 2020

    UK finds 50% of virus patients going into ICU die there raising questions about what treatment is appropriate and effective.

    Reply
  13. Corky

     /  29th March 2020

    As predicted by Duker and myself yesterday, the government looks set to relent on halal meat and its sale. A golden opportunity to show Muslims there will be know special treatment for them, has gone to waste. Even in these troubled times we continue to crawl. Let’s hope those Infidels at the Mad Butchers will be accorded similar privileges.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  29th March 2020

      It was a foregone conclusion. Most people figured that one out immediately. What interests me is whether other butchers forbidden to open will now kick up a justifiable stink because it’s pure bloody mumbo jumbo & there’s no sane or justifiable reason that meat butchered halal can be sold while butcher shops that are non halal can’t sell meat.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  29th March 2020

        Mind you, Corks, they haven’t been given the ok to sell halal from halal butcher shops yet. From what I’ve seen they’re still struggling to see if there’s a way they can get it into supermarkets instead of allowing halal butcher shops to open. Gonna be a challenge if Muslims don’t want their mumbo juumbo slaughtered H&S regulation compliant meat contaminated by any contact or closeness with normally slaughtered H&S regulation compliant meat.

        Reply
      • Corky

         /  30th March 2020

        ”It was a foregone conclusion. Most people figured that one out immediately.”

        I agree, if you are talking about this blog. But even then their prediction goes against their general narrative on Muslims, and in some respects would be hypocritical. They also have no consistent record predicting stuff. I do. The latest being in late 2019 when I post that this would be the beginning of the ‘decade from hell.” I even provided a rough date. OK, the warning came from my astrologer. But as no one else on this blog believes in astrology, I’m claiming it as my own. It always pays to acknowledge any prediction that comes true. It keeps the subconscious happy and willing to continue providing help.

        If you are speaking of the general public, I don’t think the topic even registers. Even if it did, generally no one would extrapolate out what the decision really means for the future of our culture and national identity.

        ”Mind you, Corks, they haven’t been given the ok to sell halal from halal butcher shops yet.”

        True.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  30th March 2020

          I agree, if you are talking about this blog. But even then their prediction goes against their general narrative on Muslims, and in some respects would be hypocritical. They also have no consistent record predicting stuff. I do. The latest being in late 2019 when I post that this would be the beginning of the ‘decade from hell.” I even provided a rough date. OK, the warning came from my astrologer. But as no one else on this blog believes in astrology, I’m claiming it as my own. It always pays to acknowledge any prediction that comes true. It keeps the subconscious happy and willing to continue providing help.

          Well, if making predictions is what makes you feel more secure about yourself & any situations, good for you, but I think you overestimate their importance. I’m not interested in making predictions, they don’t really matter that much to me. I might try to guess where things are going sometimes but mostly if it’s not clear or debatable then I just observe & see how things pan put.

          Do you keep track of the ones that fail – or those where you hedge your bets – & give yourself an out eg by saying stuff like “I coyld be wrong but …”.

          Reply
  14. Gezza

     /  29th March 2020

    Yep. My Saturday shopping bill was definitely higher than usual for the items I bought. My eyebrows went up then my brows furrowed when I saw the total at the checkout, but I was so grateful to have got just about everything on my list after 30 minutes standing outside in a queue in the cold I just felt lucky, all things considered

    Supermarket-only-shopping-allowed is an open invitation for them to be sneaking prices up across the board.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120661543/call-for-pricing-probe-as-prime-minister-promises-briefing-on-supermarkets

    Reply

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