USA: ‘Best case scenario’ projects 100,000-200,000 deaths

A lot of big numbers have been thrown around regarding Covid-19 casualties, but projections continue to paint grim picture even if things go as well as hoped.

Currently there are about 37,000 recorded Covid deaths around the world, with the US total at 2,864. But the huge jump in cases to over 170,000 suggests things are getting significantly worse, and predictions look bad.

NBC: Dr. Birx predicts up to 200,000 U.S. coronavirus deaths ‘if we do things almost perfectly’

The White House coronavirus response coordinator said Monday that she is “very worried about every city in the United States” and projects 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths as a best case scenario.

In an interview on “TODAY,” Dr. Deborah Birx painted a grim message about the expected fatalities, echoing that they could hit more than 2 million without any measures, as coronavirus cases continue to climb throughout the country.

“I think in some of the metro areas we were late in getting people to follow the 15-day guidelines,” she added.

Birx said the projections by Dr. Anthony Fauci that U.S. deaths could range from 1.6 million to 2.2 million is a worst case scenario if the country did “nothing” to contain the outbreak, but said even “if we do things almost perfectly,” she still predicts up to 200,000 U.S. deaths.

Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, reiterated Monday on CNN that “I don’t want to see it, I’d like to avoid it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw 100,000 deaths.”

Birx and Fauci seem to have convinced President trump of the possible seriousness of the situation in the US.

Fox News: Trump says coronavirus to peak ‘around Easter…’

President Trump, in an extensive interview Monday with “Fox & Friends,” predicted coronavirus cases in the U.S. will likely peak “around Easter” as he defended his administration’s decision to extend strict social distancing guidelines through the end of April – suggesting millions of lives could be saved by the measures.

“We’re doing a lot of things and we don’t want to [ease restrictions] too soon,” Trump said. “Around Easter, that’s going to be the highest point, we think.”

Trump added: “We think April 30 is a day where we can see some real progress. And we expect to see that, short of June 1, we think the death, it’s a terrible thing to say, will be brought to a very low number.”

“If we didn’t do anything, 2.2 million people could have died”

“The worst thing we can do is declare victory … and then not have victory. We’re at war, this is war.”

It’s hard to know what he means by the April 30 and June 1 dates but it suggests he accepts that the virus will be a major problem for some time.  There are no longer suggestions of “One day it’s like a miracle – it will disappear” or of “a beautiful time, a beautiful timeline” referring to Easter Sunday.

 

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87 Comments

  1. Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  31st March 2020

      How much evidence is there of outdoor transmission? Seems to me most is touch or sharing confined space. Which of course makes nonsense of a lot of our lockdown rules.

      Reply
      • WHO scientific brief:

        In an analysis of 75,465 COVID-19 cases in China, airborne transmission was not reported.

        Transmission of the COVID-19 virus can occur by direct contact with infected people and indirect contact with surfaces in the immediate environment or with objects used on the infected person (e.g., stethoscope or thermometer).

        https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

        I guess the 2 metre guideline is to prevent arms length touching or accidental touching from being too close.

        Contact with infected surfaces is the primary means of transmission, which is why they have shut playgrounds and gated dog runs.

        Other outdoor activities that have a higher risk of accident or injury are discouraged to protect emergency workers from possible contact.

        And there’s the human factor. If you give people two meters they will take a metre, if you give them freedom to roam they will inevitable congregate, which raises the risks.

        At this stage I’m happy to not take public contact risks. Others are less worried – but people who get slack become a risk to others.

        Alcohol raises risks. With the wedding cluster in Wellington a woman (who had recently been travelling and contracted Covid but didn’t know it) got drunk and kissed a guy on the dance floor, who contracted the virus and passed it on to another woman when he kissed her.

        Then the drunk woman flaked out and people helped her off the dance floor and they contracted the virus. At the last count 12 confirmed cases as a result.

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/120678551/coronavirus-drunken-antics-at-wellington-wedding-led-to-covid19-cluster

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  31st March 2020

          So if outdoor activity is safe other than dealing with accidents then take precautions when dealing with accidents.

          Reply
          • The more people doing it the more chance of contact and accidents.

            Activity is safer if done in isolation – at least if you have an accident you have less chance of endangering others with the virus.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  31st March 2020

              Wherever you have the accident the risks depend on the circumstances. If you have it at home and are infected rescuers have to breathe your infected air and touch your infected surfaces. The risks are greater than if you have it outdoors.

        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  31st March 2020

          Re air bourne transmission, why the negative pressure rooms and all the masks then? Also more recent studies show micro-droplets spreading 7-8m and persisting in the air for hours.

          Reply
          • Kitty Catkin

             /  31st March 2020

            Well, yes, if someone alone has an accident at home, they won’t be infecting other people (assuming that they have it to start with)

            They may die, but that’s collateral damage.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  31st March 2020

              Why do you assume no-one has to come to their rescue?

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  31st March 2020

              Because no one will know that they’ve had it, of course. How would anyone know if they can’t come to the house ? If someone has a broken leg or is immobilised, they can’t reach a phone to call for help.

  2. Alan Wilkinson

     /  31st March 2020

    The real question is whether lockdown is effective in the medium term. Not much evidence it is yet.

    Reply
    • Not much evidence that any approach is better or worse than any other yet. And with different situations in different countries it will take a lot of analysis to look back and try to work out the best approach. There are huge experiments going on – but in part informed by previous viruses like SARS.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  31st March 2020

        Europes weekly Excess Mortality Report says the numbers of excess deaths are fairly normal
        https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

        Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show, overall, normal expected levels in the participating countries; however, increased excess mortality is notable in Italy.

        Reply
  3. Blazer

     /  31st March 2020

    well its said most Americans do not have enough financial resources of their own to get them by for 3 weeks .
    Grim.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  31st March 2020

      Yes. Extended lockdowns will kill.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  31st March 2020

        Living paycheck to paycheck on credit is a lifestyle they’ve been sold as desirable by their governments.

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  31st March 2020

          I don’t know about that, but have heard that the average US family is two pay cheques away from destitution.

          The one common factor in an article that the Listener had years ago about the middle-class poor and how people were struggling on $60,000 a year (I remember that because it seemed impossible that anyone could not make ends meet on what was then a vast sum) was that they all had huge credit card bills for unnecessary things. The only one I can remember was an entire family going on a hugely expensive skiing trip when their son was off to a university in England and putting it on the card.

          I was surprised when I worked out how long I could survive if I had to live on my assets. I couldn’t take inflation into account,as that’s unknown, but it was a long time.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  31st March 2020

            Exactly There was nother one about a ”Nortland’ Family. They just couldnt live without spending $3k pa on the dog Big money on multiple holidays
            and other examples
            https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110523771/100k-a-lot-or-a-little-whats-wealthy-in-nz-in-2019
            “Each month, they spend $1200 on power, phone, internet and insurance, [thats $15k pa] $1600 on food, $400 on miscellaneous items, $1000 on kids’ activities, school fees and daycare, $500 on their vehicle and $300 on their dogs. Another $300 goes on saving for holidays and Christmas and $700 is for clothing, doctor and dentist visits.

            Reply
            • Kitty Catkin

               /  31st March 2020

              The article says that they have $26,000 left after tax, which can’t be right. ($13,000 each) No one pays 74% tax. Sloppy reporting or typo ?

  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  31st March 2020

    A reasonable best case scenario for the US is that like the ship 20% get the virus and like Germany 0.5% of those die. That gives 300M x 0.1% = 300,000. For NZ about 4,500.

    Bad but not disastrous. With or without lockdown.

    Reply
    • Most predictions I’ve seen are more like 60-80% infection rates. No restrictions likely to make it higher.

      One aim is to keep as many people uninfected for as long as possible until a vaccine becomes available.

      “With or without lockdown.”

      How do you know that?

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  31st March 2020

        Half of the infected are asymptomatic and many infected give false negatives. The German fatality rate is based on those actually testing positive. I see little reason to expect the general detected infection rate to exceed that on the quarantined ship with victims in a shared confined space with common air circulation and centrally prepared food.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  31st March 2020

          Add the background , the 2017/18 flu epidemic in US killed 44,000 people and thats with vaccines and recognised anti viral treatments for the very sick.
          The very old ( and very young ) often have limited protection from vaccines anyway.

          I like the work being done with well known immune booster vaccines like BCG which are given to children as a matter of course . But another shot for older people ?

          Reply
        • There are 47 confirmed and probable cases in the Marist College cluster.

          Do you think if they went unrestricted and the College hadn’t been shut down the infection rate would have been something like 20%?

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  31st March 2020

            Roll was 776. More teachers than students initially infected now 14 teachers from a staff of about 75. Almost exactly 20%.

            Reply
            • The lockdown would have limited the spread. without it and school as usual and it would likely hav ebeen much greater.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  31st March 2020

              Yes, amongst the 775 students. Uncertain re the staff who obviously brewed the pot.

    • Blazer

       /  31st March 2020

      its quite disastrous if you are one of the…4,500.

      Reply
    • Griff.

       /  31st March 2020

      Alan can you actually use facts rather than just bullshitting all the time ?
      When I did math long ago 66,711 to 645 was not equal to 0.5 %.
      Beside which it takes time to die so the death rate now is a reflection of the infection rate from about 14 days ago.
      https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
      Germany had 30,000 cases a week ago and 10,00 cases two weeks ago.
      This is such basic stuff and has been pointed out many times but still you ignore it
      This is a cognitive issue see your doctor.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  31st March 2020

        Ok, the stats keep changing and the data is flaky but let’s see where it winds up. There’s more to the German story as well:
        https://www.thelocal.de/20200330/explained-why-is-the-coronavirus-mortality-rate-in-germany-rising

        And your contributions would be improved without the abuse as you’ve been told often enough.

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  31st March 2020

          Griff is an Aspie, he can’t help it. I have an Aspie friend, and she says what she thinks, with few filters. But she’s a dear, and I am very fond of her.

          If the average age of those dying in Germany is 82 and up to 99, that is nothing to be glad about but also reassuring to the people who are not in that category.

          Iceland’s situation makes interesting reading.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  31st March 2020

            Yes, Kitty, but I figure if Griff can say what he thinks so can I.

            As someone else said, there are a lot of experiments going on. When the dust settles and the dead are all buried we may know what to make of it all.

            Reply
          • Gezza

             /  31st March 2020

            It’s one thing having no filter, but being an aspie doesn’t give anyone a licence to be personally insukting or abusive to anyone he disagrees with as often as he seems to.

            Though to be fair that’s a thought that a few of us would probably do well to try & remember. He’s not the only one who does it.

            Reply
        • Griff.

           /  31st March 2020

          Alan when you point out the same thing many many times and the same people keep ignoring it gets frustrating. As does it when people keep reporting numbers that are untrue .
          You are my target because you do have the ability to think at some level . Some on here are incapable of actually learning and are simply a waste of space.
          You are not and yet keep on saying the same stupid things.
          I already know that the infections in Germany rose rapidly with a influx of skiers returning from holidays in Italy obviously a mostly fit younger cohort.
          Now the infection is spreading in the population at large in Germany they are seeing more representative demographic . It still does not change the fact death to infection ratio lags by about two weeks and even than you can not truly know the death rate until all cases are resolved .
          As far as I can see the most accurate data we have is in S Korea where testing rate was high from an early date and more than half of cases are resolved. Their death ratio is 1.5 % of total cases and 3 % of resolved cases suggesting a true morbidity somewhere between the two points .
          https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  31st March 2020

            As I noted when the testing coverage reduces the death/case ratio will increase. Also medic/carer infections will co-infect the vulnerable in rest homes, hospitals and clinics. There are lots of factors stirring the pot.

            Reply
          • Duker

             /  31st March 2020

            “The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300…
            Prof Ioannidis from Stanford who was lead author on the Diamond Princess studies
            https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
            Whats your published background Griff ?

            Reply
            • Griff.

               /  31st March 2020

              Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed.

              Unfortunately no that is why I used S Korea .
              They have tested a large proportion of the population about 275,000 tests at 17 march and ongoing .since then.
              There is no evidence that a significant number of cases are going unrecorded as some have claimed .
              Death rate in Korea is between 1.5 and 3% . .

              Whats yours duker for you to be so certain?
              I know same as mine.
              Except I am far better informed than you.
              That is why I can debunk bullshite like the last post on this thread and you get sucked in by it.

            • Duker

               /  31st March 2020

              Really ?
              You should publish in a leading journal immediately ….
              The trouble is even wikipedia doesnt take ‘own research’

              You have no statistics or epidemiology training ….maybe some pet mice once .. thats Siouxies line of work.

      • David

         /  31st March 2020

        Could you tone down the abuse Griff, its tiresome and all that happens is people just ignore what you actually have to say. You never win an argument by shouting and abusing.

        Reply
    • Shaking my head in disbelief…

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  31st March 2020

        What’s changed? He is always awesome.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  31st March 2020

          No he’s not. He can only usually remember about 2 or 3 superlatives at any given time. His latest ones are “tremendous” and “fantastic”.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  31st March 2020

            I guess he’ll take any of those. He’s not a fussy man.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  31st March 2020

              Oh yes he is. Very fussy. That’s how those reporters bait him into saying stupid shit & going off at them like a firecracker.

  5. Zedd

     /  31st March 2020

    IF MrT was not maybe.. listening to other opinions (??); he would have just continued his inane rhetoric ‘Its a Chinese disease’ etc. & probably would have put the USA focus, purely on the economy (as other seem to support).. MAGA-BS & ignore the spiraling numbers of ‘Average Americans’ now getting the virus & dying ?!

    Im guessing MrTs whanau are under the ‘GREATEST, BEST EVER’ protection measures ! :/

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  31st March 2020

      Trump has long been a germaphobe , so hes practiced extreme measures most of his life

      “The Purell presidency: Trump aides learn the president’s real red line
      A self-described germaphobe, the 45th president is strictly enforcing proper hygiene inside the White House — and wherever else he goes.
      fromlast year
      https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/07/donald-trump-germaphobe-1399258

      Reply
      • Zedd

         /  31st March 2020

        he also; totally is obsessed with his appearance: orange skin & hair.. 😀

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  31st March 2020

          Fake hairdo, fake tan, fake news, fake IQ, fake persona. Quite possibly fake wealth. Republicans elected a thick as pigshit narcissistic con man to be their President. And still the Democrats can’t get their act together. Almost beyond belief.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  31st March 2020

            But that’s what America has finally descended to. A state where that could actually happen.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  31st March 2020

              Dunno that it’s all bad, G. I can see the attraction of an unruly unrepentent bullshitter compared with the usual hypocritical sanctimonious preacher. Quite a few people probably relate to that.

            • Gezza

               /  31st March 2020

              The tragedy – or farce – is that this what the USA’s CHOICES have descended to being between, Al.

          • MaureenW

             /  31st March 2020

            You’re a lying, dog-faced pony soldier.

            I know who I prefer.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  31st March 2020

              Strewth. Tell us, Msureen. Don’t hold back.

            • Bush: It better not be the publicist. No, it’s, it’s her, it’s —

              Trump: Yeah, that’s her. With the gold. I better use some Tic Tacs just in case I start kissing her. You know, I’m automatically attracted to beautiful — I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything.

              Bush: Whatever you want.

              Trump: Grab ’em by the pussy. You can do anything.

              Bush: Uh, yeah, those legs, all I can see is the legs.

              Trump: Oh, it looks good.

              I know who I prefer.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  31st March 2020

              Whose legs do you prefer, Ishmael?

  6. DaveK

     /  31st March 2020

    Here is a suggestion to maybe fill in some time on house arrest……

    If you can get past the authors over-inflated ego and slightly repetitive style, ‘Win Bigly: Persuasion in a World Where Facts Don’t Matter’ is a very interesting read.

    Goes some way to explain Ts popularity, despite all the bluff, bluster and nonsense. It explains how and why he uses nonsense phases (like the ones quoted ad-nauseam by those that take him literally) to great effect. Also highlights elements that are relevant to the popularity of our very own bobblehead…. obviously very different delivery but to same effect (i.e., convincing the punters by saying nothing).

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  31st March 2020

      “like the ones quoted ad-nauseam by those that take him literally!

      I see …so thats the filter you use. Anything you think is nonsense isnt taken literally.

      Do you follow the same rule for other politicians because sure as hell Trump really really believes all his nonsense. Why dont just be honest about him being a nut job .

      Reply
  7. duperez

     /  31st March 2020

    I just watched the latest Trump presser. Reporters are asking ‘snarky’ questions, nasty questions especially since “We’re winning the war, we’ve closed down flights, we’ve this, we’ve that, we’re on top of it.”

    A bit hard to prove the veracity of what’s being said of course. When someone says flights have been closed down you can be assured the movement of people has been dramatically stopped, proximity protocols are in force.

    Of corse when someone says flights have been closed down you can also go to live Flight Tracker to see what American skies look like with all the air traffic gone. So minutes after the gospel according to the boss:

    Reply
  8. Social distancing and travel restrictions from Trump:

    Trump reiterated the need to practice socially distancing on Monday as experts warned that the peak number deaths from the virus is likely to occur sometime next month.

    “By very vigorously socially distancing, we can save more than one million American lives,” he said. “The sacrifices we make will determine the fate of this virus and the fate of our victory.”

    Trump noted that his administration’s guidelines — which he has extended through April — will not change much in substance though they “may be toughened up a bit,” while adding that the restrictions on travel to foreign countries will also remain.

    “The economy is number two, my focus is saving people’s lives,” he said.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-shows-off-new-rapid-coronavirus-test-kit-in-rose-garden-as-hhs-says-1-million-americans-tested

    RNZ Live: President Trump says the US should “reach the bottom of the hill” of the coronavirus outbreak by the first of June.

    The US has recorded a new one-day record of 486 deaths, with the total toll nearing 3000.

    If their peak is actually at Easter that suggests a few thousand more deaths at least.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  31st March 2020

      When will it catch up to the current flu confirmed deaths of 24,000. ( could be higher as those with multiple conditions and elderly not always tested before they die)
      even twice that still comes into the range of 2017/18 flu deaths

      Reply
  9. Dr. Tony Fauci said we need containment more than mitigation. We are sending a message of confusion by not having a total lockdown. We are also not testing everyone. Do the math. https://wp.me/P57D2C-NG . There is also a great lack of awareness or seriousness of the situation. We are falsely depending on social media yet knowing that many people do not have internet access. Trucks with loud speakers need to spread the message to every street. We are just not doing enough. Thousands are not subject to the “stay at home” orders; that is crazy.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  31st March 2020

      Even Germany has reached the point where they can’t test everyone with current technology. It’s only possible at early stages. That skews the death/cases ratio.

      Reply
  10. Gezza

     /  31st March 2020

    These are the President’s 15 Days To Slow The Spread guidelines that Mike Pence keeps holding up during the few minutes Trump lets him speak for during his Coronavirus Task Force Briefings.

    Reply
  11. seer

     /  31st March 2020

    100000-200000 a best case scenario? If I was without some compassion I’d be hoping at least 10 times that amount – specifically all those pieces of shit that have planned, enabled and implemented the US’s murderous policies of the last few decades. But vengence is mine says the Lord.

    In the article I linked to in https://yournz.org/2020/03/30/police-have-important-additional-powers-but-mustnt-abuse-them/ namely https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/03/covid-19-it-may-turn-out-that-the-world-has-been-deceived-hints-russian-military-intelligence-agent/ there is a comment that is apposite –

    Fredd
    In 2009 UK government experts wildly over-hyped dangers of swine
    flu — is history repeating with Covid-19?
    https://www.rt.com/uk/48431

    the A/H1N1 virus

    Professor Sir Liam Donaldson was the chief medical officer for England at the time. He announced that the worst case scenario would see almost 19 million people
    infected by the virus, and a mortality rate of around 0.35% resulting in
    about 65,000 deaths. Based largely on Sir Liam’s worst case scenario
    (after all, one must prepare for the worst) the British government got
    an enormous vaccination program underway,
    which was to prioritize those particularly at risk (the elderly,
    pregnant women and children) before a general roll-out to the rest of
    the population. They bought 90 million doses in total from pharmaceutical companies GlaxoSmithKline and Baxter.

    Needless to say, that did not happen. By the spring of 2010, it was clear that
    A/H1N1 was far less deadly than previous flu epidemics. But remember
    that 65,000 deaths was Sir Liam’s worst case scenario; what was his best
    case scenario? At a minimum, he predicted, swine flu would infect
    around 3 million Brits and kill only 3,100. Much less frightening. So
    how did the final tallies stand?
    In the end, fewer than 500
    British people died from swine flu, almost all people with underlying
    health conditions. This represented less than one-sixth of the chief
    medical officer’s best case scenario. The government were overjoyed, of
    course, that so many of its citizens had been spared death, but were
    left holding a bag containing tens of millions of leftover doses of A/H1N1 vaccine, and no one left to immunize. Rather awkward.
    One such expert is Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, who has been testifying before the British parliament on how many people he thinks will ultimately fall prey to Covid-19. Professor Ferguson was giving evidence as part of a parliamentary select committee on science and technology. His initial projection was that Covid-19 would claim the lives of 500,000 people in the UK — but he has revised that projection. Ferguson now believes that at most 20,000 people will die — and it could be much lower.

    The eminent epidemiologist’s U-turn has not been widely reported to the public, but reportage from inside the hearing says that Professor Ferguson is now calling a figure 25 times smaller than his original prediction the absolute maximum.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  31st March 2020

      Thats how it works , when they are totally wrong they can claim ‘we saved all those lives’

      Even in real world situations like construction and aviation the safety factor is most likely to be 1.5. Thats 1.5 x not 100 times

      Reply
    • Griff.

       /  31st March 2020

      Lets let Neil talk for himself.

      neil_ferguson
      @neil_ferguson
      ·
      Mar 27
      1/4 – I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
      neil_ferguson
      @neil_ferguson
      ·
      Mar 27
      2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
      neil_ferguson
      @neil_ferguson
      ·
      Mar 27
      3/4 – My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
      neil_ferguson
      @neil_ferguson
      4/4 – Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
      10:52 AM · Mar 27, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  31st March 2020

        How exactly does flattening the curve reduce the area underneath it? It merely spreads it over a longer period. The guy is b.s.-ing.

        Reply
      • Pink David

         /  31st March 2020

        This is great. We will be able to make a comparison between the states that have followed Ferguson’s advice and those who have not.

        Reply
  12. Gezza

     /  31st March 2020

    Trump Coronavirus Task Force Team briefing two days ago. Comments on their statistical models by Deborah Birx, followed by Antony Fauci, in answer to a reporter’s question about how bad it could get.

    The whole thing’s 1 hr 30 minutes long, so best watched Full Screen as it’s easier to get directly to their comments – from 47:56 to 52:07.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  31st March 2020

      Why dont you just tell us the relevant comments , the reference is only a backup.
      Doesnt the WH still do transcripts?

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  31st March 2020

        I dunno if the WH or anyone provide verbatim transcripts of these. Most news reports have to cherry pick out relevant facts & points from all of Trump’s endless blithering & the ego massaging his guest speskers have to do to keep their jobs or stay on his good side.

        I’m on my little old iPad 2. I can’t type out what was said because its brain’s too small – not enuf RAM – can’t keep two browser tabs & my Notes app open at the same time. What was interesting was the way Fauci diplomatically pointed out hiscown view about the models.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  31st March 2020

          https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/

          The first tip is free
          But of course they may correct for clarity ??

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  31st March 2020

            1st tip is free. This is all there is.

            https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-meeting-supply-chain-distributors-covid-19/

            Read it, then tell me where the reporters’s questions are, & Debs Birx, & Antony Fauci’s comments are? And Pence’s? And all the stumblings and bumblings & insults & whingeing that go with a Trump Show these days.

            And then how what you just read above could possibly have taken up 1 hour & 39 minutes when it goes non-stop for the full time.

            There’s no way the Trump White House would do a complete full transcript of that Doofus’s car crash breifing comedies. Nor it seems can they even be bothered transcribing the other team members’ efforts.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  31st March 2020

              Thats because you wern’t looking at a PRESS briefing
              https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing/

              Hint ..its in the heading

              “So, thank you very much. And if you’d like, we’ll take a few questions. John, please.”

              Its not a good look to be even more clueless than Trump , but you are succeeding. ….#Comedygold

            • duperez

               /  31st March 2020

              No need for the full transcript is there? You know it was perfect, a perfect transcript for a perfect press conference.😷

            • Gezza

               /  31st March 2020

              Now find me the transcript for the correct briefing video that I posted. Not yesteday’s briefing, which that one isn’t of.

            • Gezza

               /  31st March 2020

              It is curious though. Wonder why they posted a transcript of the 30 March press briefing you misidentified, but didn’t post one for the 29 March one I posted the video of. 🤔

            • Duker

               /  31st March 2020

              Thats because you have serious learning difficulties and prsist in dgiing a deeper hole
              https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-14/
              I matched the beginning video remarks with trumps own words in transcript. All the peoples comments who said arent there
              #comedygold

            • Gezza

               /  31st March 2020

              Thats because you have serious learning difficulties
              Er … no I don’t. But your personality makes you conclude& say that.

              But bugger. I just did a search on some key phrases. I don’t think its an exact word for word transcript, there are some remarks in the video not in the transcript – but you’re right, it IS the guts of the 29 March briefing & Q&A session. They must have have edited some out for clarity.

              I hate it when you win – but you don’t win many with me, so unlike you, & Trump, I’ll be gracious in conceding.

              You are correct. My apologies

    • Griff.

       /  31st March 2020

      47:56 to 52:07.
      4 minutes of meat among an hour and a half of idiotic gibbering from a incoherent whacko.
      What a waste of bandwidth.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  31st March 2020

        Yup. But when I’ve got time I treat them as a comedy show. It works well for that.

        Reply
  13. Duker

     /  31st March 2020

    In Europe, from Euromomo, over winter the weekly death rate climbs to about 70,000 per week during some years .

    We are at about high 50k per week at present Thats 50,000 + deaths per week from all causes, most of those are 60+ as expected
    https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

    Reply
  14. AN HOUR TO STOP EVERYWHERE.As many of you know, states are practicing stay at home but many workers are exceptions. How about we nationally promote an hour to stop in place? Other than police, fire, or medical responders and responses, every person would be required to stop in place for an hour and during that time once weekly wipe and clean down as much as possible with disinfectant. The same as when we stop for earthquake drills. Think of the possibility of how many lives we might save for all those who are not required to stay at home, but at least for an hour they could stop in place and clean or just stop their movement. I guess also similar to London air raid drills. And dedicate that hour to also social distancing. Trucks with loud speakers could go street to street, and also use social media, to alert the public.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  31st March 2020

      Thats for next year when we have the ‘anniversary’
      However most will be like the Christchurch Muslims, want to get on with their lives

      Reply

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