Covid-19 deaths per 1m

Going by the scramble here in New Zealand and worldwide to secure more ventilators that are essential for treating serious cases of Covid-19 it is expected that things will get worse, quite a bit worse.

Changes in statistics in just one day show how quickly things are getting worse. This was yesterday morning:

Now:

I posted about Sweden yesterday – Sweden’s different Covid strategy looks shaky – when they had 14 deaths per million, today it is up to 18.

The US has increased from 9 to 10 and is expected to get much worse (they are saying 100,000 deaths would be a good achievement).

Where is New Zealand headed? We currently have just one death. If we rise to 10 per million that’s about 50 deaths.

If we reach the death rate of France, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland that would bring us up to hundreds of deaths.

I hope we get nowhere near as bad as Italy and Spain which would equate to about 1,000 deaths.

But the above figures are current, and all countries will get worse, including New Zealand. It’s hard to predict how bad it will get.

The current world total deaths stands at just over 40,000.

Another projection: 14,000 could die in NZ if control efforts fail

The Otago University projections paint a bleak picture, but are more optimistic than other modelling by the University of Auckland’s Te Pūnaha Matatini.

That report concluded that, left unchecked, the virus would infect 89 percent of the population and kill up to 80,000 people.

“If New Zealand fails with its current eradication strategy toward Covid-19, then health outcomes for New Zealand could be very severe.

“If interventions were intense enough however, in some scenarios the epidemic peak could still be

The University of Otago research paper – which was provided to the Ministry of Health last week – estimates that up to 64 percent of the population could fall ill with up to 14,400 people dying.

The report noted that 14,400 is 0.29 percent of the population and would not be as severe as the 0.8 percent that died from the 1918 flu pandemic in New Zealand (9000 deaths out of a population of 1.149 million people).

“Another unfortunate comparison with the 1918 pandemic is the potential increased risk of death for Māori and Pacific populations (albeit based on the H1N1 influenza pandemic experience in 2009),” the report said.

Co-author of the report, Associate Professor Nick Wilson, told Morning Report that going off his research, New Zealand is currently on track for the best case scenario given the government’s measures.

“If we are successful (in eliminating the virus), we will start to see that in the coming weeks.

“That will definitely be the best outcome because it may mean relatively few hospitalisations and deaths and it might mean we are able to open up the economy, though maintaining very good border control until we get a vaccine.

“New Zealand has been in a good position and as an island nation it can have very good border control with quarantine, so we’re in a situation where we really have adopted the best strategy which is the elimination one and very few other countries have been able to do that.”

So we are in a good position to come out of this with a lower death rate than other countries, especially to worst of them.

 

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44 Comments

  1. Gezza

     /  1st April 2020

    Short BBC interactive compares US Covid-19 & Cv19 death rates against China, Italy, Spain & South Korea.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-52066105/coronavirus-us-death-rates-v-china-italy-and-south-korea

    Reply
  2. duperez

     /  1st April 2020

    There’s been plenty of discussion about ventilators and criticism (all around the world) about the lack of numbers of them on hand for eventualities. If suggestions had been made that lots of money be spent on warehouses of ventilators a year ago or a plan developed to stockpile numbers into the thousands, how would that have been received?

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  1st April 2020

      Goodvpoint dupers. Hoots of derision, I have no doubt.

      “Waste of taxpayers’ money – where’s the need? How many operations has the government denied members of the public with this foolish & unjustifiable decision ?”

      Can see every opposition party taking that line, tbh. That would apply whether they were Lsbour, Act, National, or NZF in NZ.

      Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  1st April 2020

      Surely the main issue with ventilators is that they don’t work?

      Fitting them infects the medics who do it, half of the patients die anyway and those who don’t take two weeks to get off them.

      The solution to the ventilator problem is to find medications that work and can be administered at home instead of in ICU.

      Reply
  3. Sadly Americans are not seeing their curve flatten.

    “More than half of all confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States have been diagnosed in the past five days. Depending on what data source you use, yesterday was either the worst day for new cases or one of the worst. And more than 3,000 Americans with the virus have died, meaning the death toll has now exceeded that of the 9/11 terrorist attacks … the other three countries with the world’s largest number of confirmed cases — Italy, China and Spain — were all making significant progress at a similar point in their outbreaks. But the response in the United States has been slow and uneven.”

    Reply
    • David

       /  1st April 2020

      The American media seem delighted that they have the “worst” outbreak, sure they dont like Trump but that seems to have extended to not liking Americans in general and particularly NYers.
      Italy and Spain have far less people and China is lying its backside off so its all relative.

      Reply
      • The American media seem delighted that they have the “worst” outbreak

        I haven’t seen any sign of delight about Covid – where do you see that?

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  1st April 2020

          US just has a better system of testing if you want it and are paying.
          The test may be ‘free’ – that is the lab costs , but the ER doctors arent , other places have free drive through testing.
          All the graph does it tell you how much testing is occuring, no real measurte of the populations involved.
          Outside of Italy the excess deaths are still under the normal range in Europe, so those scary numbers of deaths per million are just that scary but not relevant when you have 50,000 plus deaths per week anyway

          Reply
          • Look at deaths in one day (Monday GMT) then.

            Spain 913
            Italy 812
            USA 558
            France 418
            UK 180

            The US is already at 546 today, Italy already at 837.

            Numbers of deaths from other causes are largely irrelevant, these is on top of that.

            Reply
          • Griff.

             /  1st April 2020

            Outside of Italy the excess deaths are still under the normal range in Europe,

            Dave is basing this on a data set that is three weeks or more old and has a warning about using it to track Covid deaths due to its lack of real time information.
            Idiocy in other words .

            those scary numbers of deaths per million are just that scary but not relevant when you have 50,000 plus deaths per week anyway

            We already see 3,000 a day 21,000 a week from Covid 19 in Europe and rising quickly .

            Why are so many on the right not able to consider the future instead are locked into only considering the present ?

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  1st April 2020

              A normal day in Europe is 7500 deaths per day anyway, still well below peaks from recent years when it bumped 10,000 per day.
              No data is ever ‘complete’ but the patterns are clear compared to the ‘normal weekly death rates’
              What about the peaks from previous years, that was quite a big jump of some extra 1000s per week , are you still waiting for the numbers to come in on that too
              Funny you are quite happy to run with mad predictions based on 36 deaths in China ( as referenced also by PG)

      • David, that’s just rubbish. Nobody in the media is gloating over American deaths.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  1st April 2020

          They really, really want Trump to fail, Ishmael.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  1st April 2020

            “They really, really want Trump to fail, Ishmael.”

            hes doing it quite well all on his own ….remember his first TV address from the Oval office about major restrictions where he flubbed his lines and said things that werent true…major panic by the WH to ‘correct’ his comments
            Couldnt even read the autocue .

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  1st April 2020

              Damn straight. Even when they give a clever script or some actual facts and numbers on paper, he either muffs it, or he introduces some daft ad lib that make what he just read sound stoopid. It’s like his brain is so full of crapworms wriggling around that he can’t concentrate long enuf to just do a simple reading of a script – he has to let a crapworm out.

          • You are 100% wrong Alan.

            The American people want their president to be an effective, and compassionate leader. They want him to act swiftly and competently to protect public health. They want him to deliver clear, consistent, scientifically sound messages on the state of the epidemic and its solutions.

            Nobody wants anybody in Trump’s position to fail. But he is failing, and it’s all his own doing.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  1st April 2020

              I was referring to most of the MSM not the American people. There is a reason the latter have so little regard for the former.

        • David

           /  1st April 2020

          Didnt say deaths.

          Reply
  4. David

     /  1st April 2020

    Denmark is easing its restrictions, their restrictions were similar to our level 3 as they claim to be on top of the outbreak:
    “Danish authorities have restricted public assembly to 10 or fewer people, ordered the closure of schools, universities, day cares, restaurants, cafes, libraries, gyms and hair salons, and shut all borders to most foreigners.”

    Reply
  5. Mitch McConnell has started the false impeachment talking point of the day. Predictable claptrap: Trump is forever the victim. Don’t hold him accountable.

    Trump never participated in the impeachment process. He spent his time golfing, tweeting, and telling his cultists coronavirus was a Democrat hoax. He wilfully ignored warnings from his own staff and failed in his most basic leadership obligations.

    Impeachment didn’t keep Trump from caring about the virus. Trump kept Trump from caring about the virus.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  1st April 2020

      Get real, Ishmael. Impeachment kept everyone from caring about the virus. Fancy Nancy was dancing around with her impeachment indictment like the Sugar Plum Fairy.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  1st April 2020

        House impeached Trump 18 december …. who was caring about the Virus then ?
        Wrong again

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  1st April 2020

          Suggest you read before you comment. Pelosi finally delivered to the Senate in mid Jan after a month of posturing. And then followed the Senate hearings.

          Reply
          • The impeachment-distracted-Trump thing is dumb as hell but the aspect that really gets me is that the Republicans are admitting Trump screwed up the response. Why else would they need the excuse?

            Reply
      • The CDC issued its first warning on Jan 8.

        Trump held campaign rallies on Jan 9, Jan 14, Jan 28, Jan 30, Feb 10, Feb 19, Feb 20, Feb 21 & Feb 28.

        He golfed on Jan 18, Jan 19, Feb 1, Feb 15, Mar 7 & Mar 8.

        The first time he admitted the coronavirus might be a problem was Mar 13

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  1st April 2020

          Very busy man. Probably did other things as well. Does he have a Health Dept or manage it himself?

          Reply
    • Gezza

       /  1st April 2020

      Trump … spent his time golfing, tweeting, and telling his cultists coronavirus was a Democrat hoax.

      No he didn’t. I don’t have any time or respect for the blithering idiot, but he did NOT say the coronavirus was a hoax. This has been well-established as fake news & a false allegation. He alleged that the Democrats’ claims that his administration’s responses in dealing with it were inadequate (which they were) was a hoax.

      He wilfully ignored warnings from his own staff and failed in his most basic leadership obligations.

      Nothing wrong with that one, imo. But due to his usual wilful ignorance & penchant for blurting out idiotic thoughts running thru his head.

      Reply
      • Your parsing of what Trump did or didn’t say is pretty narrow, Gezza.

        Sure, Trump didn’t specifically state “coronavirus is a hoax” but he sure as hell muddied the waters in the same breath by comparing the number of coronavirus fatalities in the U.S. (none, at that point in time) to the number of fatalities during an average flu season, and accusing the press of being in “hysteria mode”.

        Until last week week, he’s relentlessly downplayed the issue, called the people who were voicing their concerns about the impending pandemic hysterical, and labelled their concerns as a Democrat hoax. You can’t erase that.

        Frankly it amounts to the much same thing.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  1st April 2020

          I happened to watch the full rally where he made these remarks one night when I was bored.

          My parsing is not too narrow. The allegation he called the coronavirus a hoax is false. It’s fake news. When you repeat (as you have done more than once here) a demonstrably factually inaccurate claim about Trump you are pushing a lie & that supports his whining that he is a victim of fake news & fake news media.

          Sure, Trump didn’t specifically state “coronavirus is a hoax” but he sure as hell muddied the waters in the same breath by comparing the number of coronavirus fatalities in the U.S. (none, at that point in time) to the number of fatalities during an average flu season, and accusing the press of being in “hysteria mode”.

          Yes he did. And he’s not the only one who does that. But that’s a separate criticism which has some validity.

          Until last week week, he’s relentlessly downplayed the issue, called the people who were voicing their concerns about the impending pandemic hysterical, and labelled their concerns as a Democrat hoax. You can’t erase that.

          I haven’t seen him saying anywhere that the “Democrats’s concerns” were a hoax but it wouldn’t surprise me; his blithering often jumbles allegations together in ways that don’t actually make logical sense.

          Frankly it amounts to the much same thing.

          No, it doesn’t. The claim he called the coronavirus fake news is a lie. You are being foolish & playing into his hands. I suggest you stop making that particular allegation.

          Reply
  6. duperez

     /  1st April 2020

    President Trump’s history of dealing with the virus has been like the tide. Water’s edge was mild and miles away. Hearing that it was going to come in and there’d be big waves brought the dismissals.
    Now the tide is thundering in and the commensurate moderating of tone has arrived.

    The contrast today in the conference to those from a couple of weeks back is marked, astonishing.

    From ‘It’s going to disappear’ to ‘WE WILL WIN THIS WAR’ outlines the president’s changed response to the coronavirus since January. Today’s performance shows that even bold, aggressive ‘war’ against the ‘silent enemy’ has ebbed as reality has arrived.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/trump-coronavirus-statements/?itid=hp_hp-banner-main_trumpwords-315pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

    Reply
    • From yesterday’s Boston Globe, written by Americans with vastly more understanding than we have from a distance, of how poorly Trump has served the country:

      “What we have instead is a president epically outmatched by a global pandemic.

      A president who in late January, when the first confirmed coronavirus case was announced in the United States, downplayed the risk and insisted all was under control.

      A president who, rather than aggressively test all those exposed to the virus, said he’d prefer not to bring ashore passengers on a contaminated cruise ship so as to keep national case numbers (artificially) low.

      A president who, consistent with his mistrust and undermining of scientific fact, has misled the public about unproven cures for COVID-19, and who baited-and-switched last week about whether the country ought to end social distancing to open up by Easter, and then, on Saturday, about whether he’d impose a quarantine on New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

      A president who has pledged to oversee the doling out of the $500 billion in corporate bailout money in the latest stimulus package, some of which will go to the travel industry in which his family is invested.

      A president who spent a good chunk of a recent press conference complaining about how hard it is for a rich man to serve in the White House even as Americans had already begun to lose their jobs, their health care, and their lives.

      A president who has reinforced racial stigma by calling the contagion a “Chinese virus” and failed to collaborate adequately with other countries to contain their outbreaks and study the disease.

      A president who evades responsibility and refuses to acknowledge, let alone own, the bitter truth of National Institutes of Health scientist Dr. Anthony Fauci’s testimony: that the country’s testing rollout was “a failing.”

      Etc., etc.

      https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/30/opinion/president-unfit-pandemic/

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  1st April 2020

        Not a bad effort overall, imo, but another dodgy allegation best left out of Trump criticisms:

        A president who has reinforced racial stigma by calling the contagion a “Chinese virus” and failed to collaborate adequately with other countries to contain their outbreaks and study the disease.

        This is a very weak & unsupportable allegation. Reporters & Dens trying to bait him on this one are doomed to fail because he simply points out that he is not racially prejudiced against Chinese people, he loves Chinese people 🙄, that he is simply telling the truth – “It came from … China !”

        And it did!

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  1st April 2020

          PS: It’s also noticeable that, since his last phone call with President Xi, he no longer calls it the Chinese virus. He is now calling it the pandemic, the invisible enemey, “the …. coronavirus”, & “the …. virus”.

          Quite funny really – you can see often him pausing while he works out what is he going to call it. It’s why I’d rather watch Trump than read a transcript. The comedy disappears when you read a transcript; you can’t see his face and those of his entourage. Often priceless.

          Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  1st April 2020

        From yesterday’s Boston Globe, written by Americans with vastly more understanding than we have from a distance, of how poorly Trump has served the country

        Written by media serving the Democrat heartland.

        Reply
  7. Alan Wilkinson

     /  1st April 2020

    The Telegraph column I posted yesterday postulates that the TB vaccine BCC protects against coronavirus. If so, both country and age vulnerabilities should correlate with their vaccination history. AFAIK NZ has had only targeted programs.

    https://yournz.org/2020/03/31/covid-19-modelling-reports/#comment-403952

    Reply
  8. Gezza

     /  1st April 2020

    Sartorial icon The Hosk brings his formidable scientific mind to bear on the statistics

    https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/video/mikes-minute-politics-is-creeping-into-covid-19-response/

    Reply
    • Another pushing the worst case projections, but for different reasons than standard media headlines.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  1st April 2020

        Yes, I didn’t think it was his best effort at all mostly fluffing around the target.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  1st April 2020

          Knowing bugger-all about complex issues doesn’t deter “Mikey” from holding forth on them.

          I can’t stand his breakfast show. You need to be on something to keep up with his hi-speed rabbiting & the constant irritating ad breaks are infuriating.

          But sometimes he’s right on the money with the occasional Mike’s minute, & his radio interviews of Ministers & the PM are often the only time you hear someone in broadcast media bore in when they’re deflecting or running a line of flannel.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  1st April 2020

            That wasnt his approach when Key and English were PM…. more flannel than Bed n Bath.
            Key knew how to groom him like a racehorse in the winners circle…I think Mikey was made to think they were equals

            Reply

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