Certain and uncertain consequences of Covid lockdown

The lockdown of New Zealand will have some obvious consequences, but other consequences are less certain.

The near isolation of most people in their homes with some exceptions and exemptions will reduce the spread of the virus in the short term at least, and should keep the death toll lower than it would otherwise have been. The longer term health outcomes are less certain, it is dependent on short term success, improvements in treatment and the time taken to develop an effective vaccine.

It is certain there will be a substantial impact on the economy and an increase in unemployment. It is unknown how bad, and for how long – we don’t know if the economy will bounce back or if we will be in for a protracted recession, or whether it will deteriorate into a depression.

Sport was a prominent early casualty of the virus, and the flow on effect will be substantial for a year or two at least. Many sports have shut down for the short term at least. The Olympic Games have been delayed by a year.

There are other certainties and uncertainties. One significant uncertainty is how long the lockdown will be in place, and if it is relaxed by how much and for how long. For example we may be allowed to go back to work but still need to limit travel around the country.

Road toll

The lockdown means far fewer vehicles on the streets and roads, and shorter trips, so the road toll will come down for a while at least. There are already signs of this – the number of deaths from 1 January to 1 April 2020 are already down slightly, being 84 (for the same period in the four previous years the toll was 90, 92, 105, 100).

Drownings

There is likely to be reduction in the number of deaths by drowning at least for the duration of the lockdown. Over the last three years total deaths have been 92, 78, 82.

Accidental and workplace deaths

Deaths in the workplace will reduce significantly while the lockdown is in place.In the year to January 2020 there were an average of 9.4 deaths per month, with 10 bin both last March and April.

Accidental deaths will probably also reduce, but they could still occur at home as people do more work on houses and rooves without being able to get scaffolding.

Suicides

It’s uncertain what the overall effect of the lockdown will have on our suicide rate.Some people will be more stressed, some will be less stressed. Being confined to home won’t stop some going out and at least trying, but the lockdown will reduce opportunities and increase contact and surveilance of at risk people.

There were a record 685 recorded suicides in the year to June 2019.

Relationships

The lockdown effect on relationships will be uneven and uncertain. Some relationships will be more stressed, some may benefit from more time together. Being confined to home during the lockdown their may be a lag in relationship breakups.

There will be less temptation and opportunity for infidelity and jealousy.

Family Time

Some parents and children will benefit from having enforced time together

Infectious and Communicable Diseases

Following on from the effect on relationships, there is likely to be less promiscuity and fewer sexually transmitted diseases.

It won’t just be the spread of Covid-19  that is limited, the lockdown will also reduce the cold, flu, hepatitis, measles and all other communicable diseases.

Schools being closed will improve the health of kids, and nits should be contained more than usual.

Other Health Issues

Along with the lockdown hospitals have geared up for treating Covid-19 patients by reducing operations and treatments. There could be a negative impact on health, which could result in more deaths from delayed or unavailable treatment and delayed diagnosis and detection of diseases.

Media

Traditional commercial media – newspapers, magazines, radio and television – were already struggling and in decline. They will be severely impacted by the hit to business activity, which has taken most of their revenue away (ironically while getting a big boost in readership and audience).


This is just some of the things that will be impacted by the Covid lockdown. It will take a year or two to quantify some of the impacts, and some impacts may never be quantified.

There are some certainties but many uncertainties, and there will be both positive and negative outcomes.

We are stuck with what we have got for now, we should be doing what we can to make something out of the change in opportunities – including not grumping and grizzling too much about things we can’t change..

Leave a comment

72 Comments

  1. David

     /  2nd April 2020

    The makers of Benson and Hedges think they have a vaccine and are looking to get approval from the FDA now I am not sure if its April fools day but its in the Telegraph and the Daily Mail and apparently its based on a vaccine they successfully distributed for ebola. They are 100 billion dollar plus company so who knows but there could be a coalition of anti vaxxers, Ash and the 1% crowd being left with a moral dilemma if true.
    Their shares are up 3.5% today so who knows.

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  2nd April 2020

      The World is saying YES to Bold,Gold Benson & Hedges.

      The irony of a shameful history of causing death by lung cancer and now supposedly preventing it with an antidote to lungs infected by C19.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  2nd April 2020

        “It is being developed by its US firm Kentucky BioProcessing (KBP) using tobacco plant technology.” a subsidiary of British American Tobacco .
        Trials havent even started…most likely to come to nothing in the big scheme of things..
        But who knows
        ‘Tobacco plant technology is thought to have advantages over traditional development methods as it can produce initial vaccines in the plants in just six weeks, instead of months.
        It is also possibly safer because tobacco plants cannot host so-called pathogens that cause human disease.
        https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18351523.tobacco-giant-claims-developed-coronavirus-vaccine/

        Its known that heavy smokers can progress to more severe CV-19 because of the existing harm done to lungs

        Reply
  2. Blazer

     /  2nd April 2020

    Retail stores will be closing down en masse.

    Especially ‘high involvement’ retail…the Harvey Normans,Hunter Furnitures and the like.

    Then there are over 200,000 working visas to consider.
    Those in the agri/horticulture and health sectors should be o.k.

    Will those in retail,hospitality ,truck drivers and other blue collar and manual workers have their visas rescinded and be sent home?
    If not how can NZ be expected to support them.

    As the economy contracts ,housing will be affected too.How long will banks allow mortgage holidays?
    Already the Air b’n b side hustle is tanking.
    Halting all immigration and repatriating temporary visa holders with no work will free up accommodation and should bring welcome relief for renters.

    C19 masks the underlying fragility in economys based on finance and service industries.

    The ludicrous levels of unpayable debt are being exposed.

    The share market will reach new lows as capital flees to ????-bitcoin,gold??

    Amid all the gloom,NZ is one of the best countries to endure the collapse of the modern feudal system….plenty of food,water,power and reasonable infrastructure.

    Crime will escalate as unemployment rises to over 20%.

    Hopefully this Magic Show will be replaced by one where community and co operation trumps rapacious greed and selfish hoarding of resources.

    Environmental vandalism should also lessen dramatically.

    Have a wonderful…day.

    Reply
    • A lot of uncertainties there.

      “C19 masks the underlying fragility in economys based on finance and service industries”

      It has exposed the fragility of society as a whole. Viruses like Covid don’t recognise political or economic idealism.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  2nd April 2020

        Beg to differ.
        GFC showed that the political influence of Wall St was the dominant force in the economy.

        As I’ve mentioned the finance sector in the U.S is 7 times bigger than farming.
        Offshoring manufacturing has lead to the unemployment crisis in the ‘rustbelt’ hence the rise of nationalism/Trump.

        Today there is more unpayable debt through financial instruments than ever.
        C19 may not recognise ideologies but in this instance it is the trigger that exposes how vulnerable economies are to this domino, debt mountain.

        Why do big companies have their hands out for taxpayers money when we have supposedly been experiencing a huge boom for at least a decade?

        Its because the whole economy is predicated on smoke and mirrors and very,very fragile…indeed.

        Reply
        • It’s not just economies that run on very small margins.

          The rule of law often runs close to the edge as well, and can easily be tipped over into unrest and riots by small one off events.

          Major wars can be started on very thin pretexts, egos of men have destroyed many lives and cities and countries.

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  2nd April 2020

            the common thread is always …resources…and who controls them.

            Reply
    • Gezza

       /  2nd April 2020

      Dunno about bitcoin. I read somewhere it was now shaky.

      Reply
    • Duker

       /  2nd April 2020

      “Then there are over 200,000 working visas to consider.”

      No theres not in the context you mean
      Actual visas for work only are around the 50,000 level.
      That 200,000 number is counting those students who can work ‘part time’ along side their studies . Some student categories like masters and PhD can bring a spouse who gets a work visa as well.
      The trouble is many student visas are really here to work and the study side is just an easier way to do so. That is they enrol in a bachelors program but already have a degree and work pretty much the max in a fast food joint. if they cant support themselves for study its back home for them

      Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  2nd April 2020

      For the dinosaurs their economy was the environment. And it killed them. The meteor didn’t.

      Reply
    • Blazer

       /  2nd April 2020

      (Bloomberg Opinion) — The novel coronavirus has already had a significant impact on the global economy, which will worsen if the outbreak and the shutdowns designed to contain it continue for very long. But it’s only an accelerant: If not Covid-19, as the disease caused by the virus is known, something else would have started the conflagration. Shortfalls in revenue and cash flows, caused by the shutdowns, have simply exposed the vulnerabilities of a structurally unsound economic and financial system.

      A fall in revenue is problematic but manageable without debt. Unfortunately, in the aftermath of the 2008 crash, debt levels were increased rather than reduced, encouraged in part by low policy rates and the abundant liquidity engineered by central banks globally. Global debt as a percentage of GDP rose from around 250% in 2007 to 325% in 2019. Current debt levels are triple what they were in 1999. Businesses and households, with declining or no income and high levels of borrowing, now face an existential struggle to meet large financial commitments.

      A second problem is that, in the “everything bubble,” asset prices were priced for perfection. Policymakers boosted the values of financial assets to increase economic activity via the wealth effect, and to support borrowing to protect financial institutions.

      High asset prices reflected high leverage, in the form of leveraged loans for private equity or structured investments such as collateralized loan obligations. Debt-financed share buybacks and distributions to shareholders inflated equity values by increasing earnings per share, but simultaneously raised corporate leverage. Toxic layers of debt were heavily exposed to significant revenue downturns.

      Third, the weaknesses of the banking system were ignored. Regulatory rollbacks and tolerance for large dividends and capital buybacks undermined steps to strengthen bank capital and liquidity. In Europe and many emerging markets, non-performing loans were not appropriately recognized. The growth of the shadow banking sector was not checked. The current problems in the inter-bank market, reflecting increased counterparty risk concerns, are testament to these missteps.

      Fourth, declines in trading liquidity were disregarded. In the search for returns, investors assumed liquidity risk, sometimes unwittingly. Redemption terms offered by investment funds to investors were inconsistent with their illiquid holdings. As traditional market makers reduced activity, market-following structures, such as ETFs, and algorithmic traders were relied on for liquidity. In a crisis, these entities are users rather than providers of liquidity—as the current inability to trade even modest parcels of many securities shows.’

      Reply
  3. Major magazine group the latest Covid-19 business casualty

    The New Zealand wing of the German-owned media company publishes titles including The Listener, North & South, Metro, Kia Ora, Home NZ, Your Home & Garden, NZ Woman’s Day, New Zealand Woman’s Weekly and The Australian Women’s Weekly NZ.

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/02-04-2020/covid-19-live-updates-april-2-wage-cuts-coming-flu-vaccine-stocks-in-focus/

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  2nd April 2020

      Bridges will be devastated….him,his wife and 2 kids are regulars in womens mags.

      TV3 and the NZH won’t be far behind.

      Reply
      • Cheap selective shot – many politicians have featured in magazines over the years.

        This is a major blow to New Zealand publishing.

        NZ Women’s Weekly launched in 1932.

        The Listener was first published in 1939.

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  2nd April 2020

          You are right.
          I was wrong to single Bridges out….Paula will be pissed…too.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  2nd April 2020

            If you run out of lemons I have a couple of trees, B.

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  2nd April 2020

              Lemon aid for moi….such empathy..Al.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  2nd April 2020

              Just trying to help keep your acid levels up, B.

        • Gezza

           /  2nd April 2020

          How the hell did they end up being owned by the blimmin krauts ! 😡

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  2nd April 2020

            I guess you didn’t want to buy them enough, G. Lucky though, else it would be your money down the gurgler.

            Reply
        • Duker

           /  2nd April 2020

          “Cheap selective shot – many politicians have featured in magazines over the years.”

          None have featured as much with their young family like Bridges does, birthdays , Christmas there is Bridges with his young kids front and centre
          Every other political leader in NZ has sheltered their young kids from the limelight, almost without exception while Bridges in 2 years has multiple ‘exclusives at his home’ , so they arent pap shots or recycled pictures from the odd public event
          Come to think of it Keys wife never featured or hardly ever , as is her right of course, his children werent visible until about end of high school or so.

          Reply
    • MaureenW

       /  2nd April 2020

      Don’t know that this is directly a result of the virus. Who buys magazines? Speaking for myself, I haven’t bought one for at least 8 years. Only place I see them is medical waiting rooms.

      Reply
      • Likely inevitable anyway, but the timing is probably directly related to the virus. If they did this in ‘normal’ times there would be a big deal made of it, but now most people will just shrug it off as minor in the context of the current situation.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  2nd April 2020

          “In a parting shot at its owners, she questioned claims that the company shut in New Zealand because of Covid-19.
          The company not only refused to take up the wage subsidy, it proactively came to the Government and said it would not be using it.
          “The wage subsidy could and should have made a difference to those staff,” Ardern said.
          Refused government assistance to help during the shutdown!

          Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  2nd April 2020

      This closure will be the first of many. Might force journalists to take their job seriously and stop just being an amplifier for the government and bureaucracy.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  2nd April 2020

        Their job is to provide eyeballs for the advertisers … there is no responsibility for journos to investigate the government and the good ones will tell you those stories dont rate much and good ideas get put on the shelf.
        Bauer was about to finalise a deal to buy the same sort of magazines in Australia.. they will walk away from that deal too

        Reply
      • Some journalists are complaining about being denied information they think the public should have.

        But the media can’t just be the carriers of messages issued from the stage of the Beehive Theatrette by the likes of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield. Those standing at the podium need to be well-briefed and, in the absence of off-the-cuff answers, officials should work diligently to find and deliver them.

        Scrutiny of the Covid-19 response is essential to be sure we, as a country, are making the right decisions, based on the best advice.

        https://www.newsroom.co.nz/comment/2020/04/01/1110489/to-do-their-jobs-authorities-must-respond

        That was republished by Stuff.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  2nd April 2020

          Yes. Same went for the virus select committee I listened to. Good questions were just fluffed over by the Customs management. That is not accountability.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  2nd April 2020

            I cant see how they can be accountable ..before their deadlines

            Just what were the questions ..hint journos can be over inflated opinions of themselves
            “What was the source of infection of the Queenstown confirmed cases? Speculative
            How many tests have been done in the resort town and by whom (ie. Local staff)? How long is a piece of string and daily briefing
            Are people in Queenstown doing the contact tracing? Whaaaat
            How many contacts of confirmed cases are yet to be contacted? How long is a piecee of string
            How many DHB staff in Queenstown have tested positive for Covid-19 and how many are in isolation as a result? daily briefing
            How many intensive care beds and ventilators are there at Queenstown’s hospital? They were told this
            In the speculative realm, I asked what modelling tells us about the risks in Queenstown. ..Who knows

            Whats the detailed questions about Queenstown only ?

            Reply
            • Kitty Catkin

               /  2nd April 2020

              The PM announces that magazines and weekly papers are not essentials and will be forcibly closed down for the duration….then sheds crocodile tears when a company says that they are closing down for good.

              It was nothing to do with the enforced closedown, she says. Yeah, right.

              She must think that we’re stupid if we’d believe that. Coincidence ??? Hardly. The Listener has a very large circulation. It’s the only one I buy. But I know that ‘women’s mags’ give a lot of people a lot of pleasure.

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  3rd April 2020

              Even I know that magazines depend on advertising. They need more than a wage sub; magazines and papers are a very perishable commodity.

              The PM has now killed local reporting on the arts, current affairs and other issues in NZ . A look at the list of the casualties would make anyone want to weep.

  4. duperez

     /  2nd April 2020

    One consequence of the lockdown is the wonderful debate going on now and will go on past the time we are not here about whether it should have happened.

    If there are small numbers of deaths in New Zealand from Covid-19 ‘total overreaction’ will rule – by those who are alive of course and not grieving for lost family members and friends.

    If there are many deaths the incessant cry from those still alive and grieving for lost family members and friends will be, “Why didn’t we do more, earlier?”

    I can’t see why the media hasn’t demanded a number of deaths, an exact, specific number, a sort of target so the public can measure success or failure. That’s way they operate and the way we’ve been conditioned to think over so many years.

    That would then give scope to criticise and complain into the future that the number was set too high or too low. 🙃

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  2nd April 2020

      There are two ways out of this – medical science and crisis management. Both are being tested to the extremes. The countries that bring the best resources to both will do best. Both need to be challenged as hard as possible to perform.

      Reply
  5. While many home financial situations will be stressful enforced time with family is a big plus for many people.

    Forestry worker making the most of lockdown with family

    A Whanganui father says he is rapt to be spending so much time at home with his kids, after years of working 80-hour weeks.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/413216/forestry-worker-making-the-most-of-lockdown-with-family

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  2nd April 2020

      Beware the welfare trap.

      Reply
      • Going back to work is going to become quite a challenge for some people, but others will be keen to get back into it.

        So far I’ve been busy working from home (that’s likely to change) and have actually been enjoying work more than I have for some time – perhaps a change can be as good as a holiday.

        I keep my work day to a set structure mostly, but being at home every day I’m often losing track of what day of the week it is.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  2nd April 2020

          My days haven’t really changed all that much. While I enjoy company, I also love where I live & not having any plan for my day.

          My main pleasures are simple, & cost very little to enjoy. I am generally happy & content to live very frugally off a very small government superannuation pension with sufficient savings to cover any unexpected expenses (until maybe now – depending what value they may lose as time goes on).

          I’ll qualify for National Superannuation later this year. Might finally get a Winter Energy Subsidy, which my very low income didn’t actually qualify me for as I’m not a superannitant or a beneficiary. Bit of a hole in the criteria there. And that might depend on the long term impacts of the Covid-19 recession & the results of the next election – whenever it gets held.

          I describe myself as a happy hermit sometimes.

          Reply
          • Kitty Catkin

             /  2nd April 2020

            Pete, many people won’t have work to go back TO, that’s a certainty.

            Reply
          • Duker

             /  2nd April 2020

            “Winter Energy Subsidy, which my very low income didn’t actually qualify me for as I’m not a superannitant or a beneficiary.”
            Thats not a bug , its a feature. Your government service pension must be keeping you in some style surely or have you been impecunious about your accommodation costs

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  2nd April 2020

              I had to retire at age 50 to look after my seriously & disabled wife full time for four & a half years until she died of an inoperable brain haemorrhage. So there was a lot less in the pot than if I’d retired at age 60, as intended before she developed multiple conditions & needed to go into a wheelchair.

              I had to take a chunk out as a lump sum to buy & modify a Colt Plus so I could get her manual push-wheelchair into the back & have the front passenger seat raised & put on rails so she could get in & out of the car when I took her out. (Costs a bomb for insurance because it’s been modified.)

              My GSF allowance to 31 March this year was $15,885.42. Just lucky we were both savers & I own my house mortgage free. I’m eating slowly into my savings.

            • Gezza

               /  2nd April 2020

              *seriously ill & disabled

            • Conspiratoor

               /  2nd April 2020

              You are a good man G. I don’t know how I would have coped in those circumstances

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  2nd April 2020

              Yes,, he is a good man, C. Even if he has only softened a little lately to.my good friend, Trumpy.

              He is a good carer about many things.

            • Gezza

               /  2nd April 2020

              I was angry at the universe and everybody in it for a long time when she died, c. Lost a few acquaintances, but not the few true friends.

            • Gezza

               /  2nd April 2020

              And made some very good new ones.

          • Conspiratoor

             /  2nd April 2020

            You and me both G. I’m at a loss to know what to do with $273.26. Any ideas?

            Reply
            • Kitty Catkin

               /  2nd April 2020

              Someone I knew had a house that was in a subsidence area and was finally bought back. Instead of buying a new house, the couple spent much of the money on things like holidays. Their choice, their money, of course.No skin off my nose. But it meant that they will be renting for life and that’s not easy on super.

              I am extremely thankful to be mortgage free.

              Gezza, on that income, wouldn’t you qualify for the heat sub ?

            • Gezza

               /  2nd April 2020

              @Kitty

              Who can get the Winter Energy Payment?

              You’ll automatically get the Winter Energy Payment if you’re getting:

              NZ Superannuation
              Veteran’s Pension
              Jobseeker Support
              Jobseeker Support Student Hardship
              Sole Parent Support
              Supported Living Payment
              Young Parent Payment
              Youth Payment
              Emergency Benefit
              Emergency Maintenance Allowance.
              Who can’t get the Winter Energy Payment

              You can’t get the Winter Energy Payment if you:

              don’t get one of the payments listed above
              get an overseas pension which means you don’t get any NZ Super or Veteran’s Pension
              get Residential Care Subsidy or Residential Support Subsidy
              live overseas.

              I qualify for a Community Services Card, because of low income, but NOT for the govt’s largesse in Winter. Remember this is a Labour Govt. They’re not deep.

            • Gezza

               /  2nd April 2020

              I’m not a beneficiary, Kitty. I loathe Work & Income, especially under National, & didn’t want them dicking me round & running my life, like they’ve done with some people I knew. So I’ve stayed out of tbeir clutches.

            • Gezza

               /  2nd April 2020

              You and me both G. I’m at a loss to know what to do with $273.26. Any ideas?
              Work boots.

            • Conspiratoor

               /  2nd April 2020

              That will take care of the first week G. But I’ve been told they give to you again the next week and keep giving it to you until you expire. Unless you forget to tell them. I think for my second week I’m going to put it towards a compost bin, then maybe a dog

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  2nd April 2020

              Gezza, the website says ‘low income earners’. The more fool me for believing it.

  6. Kitty Catkin

     /  2nd April 2020

    One family is now paying rent on two houses ($1600+ a week) because they were about to move and, for reasons that are anyone’s guess, the government has forbidden this for the duration. They are not alone in this, signing up for a house that they are now unable to move into. There’s no sense in this.

    I see nothing positive in people being forced by law to stay in violent relationships. Mike Bush said that a rise in domestic violence is expected. There being less chance for infidelity & jealousy is an inane statement. Violent partners will find excuses for their violence, and their victims are now trapped with their abusers.

    The drop in industrial accidents and drownings hardly justifies the social and other costs of this nationwide house arrest. Suicide is known to rise in these circumstances. How can there be fewer opportunities and more contact and surveillance ? It’s illegal to visit people now.

    Old people living alone are being hit very hard indeed. I would be surprised if there were not a number of deaths. The cruelty of forcing someone in their 80s or 90s to live alone with no home help at all and no social contact is appalling.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  2nd April 2020

      be like Harvey Norman , dont pay rent for the new property until they move in.

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  2nd April 2020

        They were expecting to move in as soon as they left the other house, and have given notice, but are now caught paying for both because they are unable to leave the one they’re in. It doesn’t work like deferred interest payments. Landlords expect rent as soon as the tenant has signed up for the house. This isn’t usually an issue as the tenant stops paying rent as they move out of the house they’re in.

        A rental house near me is empty because it’s illegal for anyone to move house now.

        Reply
      • Blazer

         /  2nd April 2020

        HN are already occupying the properties they are refusing to pay rent for.

        Reply
    • Pink David

       /  2nd April 2020

      “There’s no sense in this.”

      Its government dictact, why would there be any sense?

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  2nd April 2020

        What a silly girl I am; this is a Labour diktat.

        Even people who’ve just bought houses are not meant to move in, but I have heard of them doing so. What option would they have ?

        Reply
  7. Conspiratoor

     /  2nd April 2020

    Just ventured out for my daily constitutional. Couldn’t believe the number of cars on the road compared to a few days ago. Folk have worked out they can drive around with impunity while they look all around town for ….a new jug.

    Even saw a cop …not interested

    So the local roads are busier than pre-lockdown as people who would normally be locked down at work are now out there clogging the roads

    And I suspect there is a growing complacency as folks have worked out if they aren’t in the high risk group ie the vast majority of the population, their chances of succumbing to this virus are pretty slim. Selfish I know but hey that’s human nature

    Just don’t wind up in an overcrowded ward of one of our aging horspitals with a dozen other unfortunates strapped into a ventilator forcing oxygen and god knows what else into your lungs. If the infection gets into such an apparatus, then it will be brought directly into the lungs of everyone else. Basically you’re fucked

    What a farce!

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  2nd April 2020

      Trump was right. Get the drug and stay at home. My inhouse medic says the dosage regime must be right though.

      Reply
      • Conspiratoor

         /  2nd April 2020

        Listen to your in house medic Al. Is it dog or human?

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  2nd April 2020

          Human, C. Mrs Al was a prescribing RN in SA.

          Reply
          • Conspiratoor

             /  2nd April 2020

            If that is the case Mrs Al has a wisdom beyond her tender years …seriously

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  2nd April 2020

              Mrs Al is no fool, C. Has qualifications and experience longer than my arm and probably yours.

            • Conspiratoor

               /  2nd April 2020

              Steady on al, mine stretch to 25 …with spaces

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  2nd April 2020

              I’m guessing you don’t mean your arms then.

              Mrs Al is a bit like me, always wanting to learn and do something new and never stay in the box.

            • Conspiratoor

               /  2nd April 2020

              I may be wrong but I’m guessing you’ll finish up in a box Al. Whether you stay in it depends on whether you have chosen the true and correct path

              Having said that the old maxim ‘Only two things are certain – death and taxes’ may not apply for much longer. If you have accumulated enough wealth you may soon have a choice on the former. Choose a new head or body or both, it’s up to you

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  2nd April 2020

              I think we’ll be gone before the box arrives, C. There’ll only be memories in the box.

      • Duker

         /  2nd April 2020

        No hes not … he was guessing at the time and (the later) trial was inconclusive both because of small numbers and barely out of placebo effect.
        Thats the way medical trials work , 50% better is placebo territory and side effects cant be worse than cure.
        If it was 200% better , small numbers be damned it would be hailed as a saviour , but virtually nothing gets that high numbers
        Better to go the other avenues you have mentioned

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  3rd April 2020

          There have been at least three small studies (2 in China, 1 in France) all of which have been positive and the FDA has approved its use at least in the absence of anything better. Australia has placed a large order.

          The risks of hospital treatment are also clear – for staff, patients and visitors.

          Reply

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