Ardern urges businesses to think ‘what next’ – but doesn’t say what or when

The Prime Minister is urging businesses to think about ‘what next’ for their business but at this stage many businesses don’t even have any idea when they might be able to start operating yet.

Except for some businesses who have already chosen no ‘what next’ in New Zealand, like the Bauer Media Group and Virgin Airline.

PM: Too early to tell if four weeks of lockdown is enough

Ardern said “intensive planning” was being done for whenever New Zealand moved out of lockdown, but the exact exit criteria was still being worked on.

When it was worked out she expected to publish it so businesses and Kiwis would know whether or not the country was likely to extend its four-week lockdown or end it.

“I do expect to be quite transparent around that, because people need to know what it is we’re looking for, and as we have been transparent with the alert levels as they stand,” Ardern said.

So the Government hasn’t worked out (or at least told us) what’s next yet.

But at the same PM urges businesses to think ‘what next’

Businesses should plan how they will operate in an environment where intensive contact tracing would be needed post-lockdown, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said today.

The Government was working on additional guidance for the move to Level 3 to aid that, she said.

“What I would ask though is that it’s not Government alone that has a role to play in that.

“I ask all businesses to look at the alert level framework, think about how your business could successfully operate within each,” she said.

“We will need to, for many months to come, contact trace all New Zealanders who come into contact with one another and workplaces have a role to play in that.”

The Government has decided which businesses are essential enough to continue operating, but there is no obvious plan for phasing other businesses back into action, which businesses will be able to start up again under level 3, which may have to wait until level 2.

And there is not information on when restrictions may scale back apart from ‘wait and see’.

This is a very difficult time for businesses, and the self employed, and employees, with a huge amount of uncertainty.

All we know for sure is that some businesses are already closing up, some more won’t survive, some will choose to cease operations, and those that try to continue will be working in a very different business environment to what existed just two weeks ago.

Trying to keep a business afloat for a month with little or no business happening will be difficult enough for some. Trying to last 3 months or 6 months will obviously be a lot more difficult.

And there will be a vicious debt circle – as some businesses are unable to pay their bills this will impact on others who will have difficulty paying all their bills, let alone staff.

Without any idea of timeframes or how businesses will be allowed to operate some businesses will just say ‘too hard’, cut their losses and bail out for good.

Some will have no choice, especially those involved in travel and tourism who have bleak futures probably for a year or two.

If businesses are to seriously think about ‘what next’ the Government has to give them much clearer indications of what is going to be allowed and when, at least approximately.

 

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39 Comments

  1. Ray

     /  6th April 2020

    Hopefully despite their utterances they have been thinking about this and setting some parameters for when they will start to lift the alert levels.
    I see the clowns at “The Standard” are pushing for an extra long lockdown, they would wouldn’t they.
    Those fascist boots really feel like a good fit for a certain type of personality.
    Two weeks will tell us lockdown is going to work, despite Covid 19 walking across the border.

    Reply
  2. David

     /  6th April 2020

    This is a good move from Ardern, after she said yesterday businesses should plan I started putting together an operating plan for when we re start. Need to put together simple rules for the guys about distancing, will set up a WhatsApp group to log which jobs they are at, working out how they travel together to jobs and all that sort of thing.
    The big problem we have at this stage and its one the health minister urgently needs to address is the complete unavailability of PPE gear and hand sanitizer. We would probably use balaclavas as they are more practical but we need 70 of them.
    So good move from Ardern but she needs some of her cabinet to address what the state can do to the supply chain of gear businesses will need in vast amounts.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  6th April 2020

      “one the health minister urgently needs to address is the complete unavailability of PPE gear”
      You and the rest of the world, even Doctors in hospitals dont have the use once and discard that used to be ‘normal’ for a few patients and now they have dozens.
      I saw a nurse outside a 24 hr clinic in coverings, gloves and facemasks and she was only triaging people who wanted to visit the doctor
      I dont see how the health Minister is responsible for making your business plan work and if there was a bigger supply you wont be getting it.

      Reply
      • David

         /  6th April 2020

        Why not, it’s easy to make hand sanitizer and face masks.
        Why have a cant do attitude and just moan that you cant get it from China. The government should be out talking to manufacturers about repurposing as has been done overseas.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  6th April 2020

          So you are ..re-purposing your business to do exactly that or is it just gibberish.
          Give PAL or Paint Aids Ltd in Takanini a call to get disposable overalls and how you can help ( dont have be hospital grade sterilized , just something your guys can take off after visiting homes)

          Reply
          • David

             /  6th April 2020

            Why the gibberish comment, what is wrong with you.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  6th April 2020

              It’s just his manner. If there’s a nice or (a neutral) way to say something, & there’s nasty way, odds are that Dukers goes for the obnoxious & insulting one.

            • David

               /  6th April 2020

              It gets tiresome to be honest.

            • Gezza

               /  6th April 2020

              Yep. Reckon he’s one of those point scoring know alls that everybody in the workplace knows & who makes them go … “Oh god. Here he comes. Chat time over over, people. Back to work everyone.”

  3. Blazer

     /  6th April 2020

    She has a Herculean task….will be wrong whatever she suggests.

    Govt’s always present optimism ,frightening the rank and file with negativity is verboten.

    The domino effect will ensure a very deep recession and unemployment will skyrocket.

    The aspirational, American dreamers will see their plans for a marble ensuite and walkin wardrobe full of clothes they never wear…evaporate.

    Empty malls and vacant commercial premises will be everywhere .Foreclosures and liquidations will escalate.
    Online business will be the only game in town.

    Those who are mortgage free and have a reliable income stream will be insulated to a degree but crime rates always mirror unemployment.

    The days of U.S domination are near an end.
    Even manufacturing a new War will not prevent the decline.

    It will take a few years till we come to appreciate a new,simpler life where merit and industry is rewarded and the rapacious,selfish ,greed of financial chicanery is banished forever.

    Life goes on.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  6th April 2020

      Unemployment will be insulated a bit by the ending of the working visa boom, which is partly those on ‘full’ working visa, another large group of working tourist visa and then those students with work rights. The student side is bolstered by the work opportunities ie they study for a extra qualification to the one they have from India but work long hours in a fast food outlet. Some courses allow full time work.

      Reply
    • Pink David

       /  6th April 2020

      “It will take a few years till we come to appreciate a new,simpler life where merit and industry is rewarded and the rapacious,selfish ,greed of financial chicanery is banished forever.”

      You are going to kind the next few years far more disappointing than you expect.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  6th April 2020

        ‘its hard to make predictions…especially about the…future’….Niels Bohr.

        Reply
        • Pink David

           /  6th April 2020

          There are some things that are very easy to predict. Humans are not going to be changed by this, they will behave largely as they always have. Your idea of …..

          ““It will take a few years till we come to appreciate a new,simpler life where merit and industry is rewarded and the rapacious,selfish ,greed of financial chicanery is banished forever.””

          ….is nothing more than the musings of a 14yo social studies student.

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  6th April 2020

            feel free to offer up your predictions!….enlighten us all.

            ‘There are some things that are very easy to predict. ‘

            Reply
            • Pink David

               /  6th April 2020

              The pandemic has already peaked and is already in decline. NZ’s approach is designed to prevent this peaking and will draw it out to last far longer than it should ever have been. More people will die as a result. NZ’s policy is specifically increasing the damage.

              My prediction is NZ will be economically badly damaged and will be poorer for several decades as a result, as well as having more impact from the virus overall.

              People will carry on behaving like people and your fantasy of “the rapacious,selfish ,greed of financial chicanery is banished forever” will not come to pass. If anything, the more control government has over ‘recovery’ the more selfishness, greed and corruption will be present. It will be a fertile environment for this.

            • Blazer

               /  6th April 2020

              ‘The pandemic has already peaked and is already in decline. NZ’s approach is designed to prevent this peaking and will draw it out to last far longer than it should ever have been. More people will die as a result. NZ’s policy is specifically increasing the damage. ‘

              what country has taken the correct approach iyo?

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  6th April 2020

            I thought all the stuff that came before that was what B was enjoying.

            Reply
          • I think it’s likely that most people will want to get back to as close to normal (same old) as is possible. There is a societal resistance to rapid change and upheaval.

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  6th April 2020

              is that the ‘new’ normal….huge monetary expansion,unpayable debt,ludicrous property prices,incresing inequality,shallow materialism and near negative interest rates to maintain…normality?

    • oldlaker

       /  6th April 2020

      Blazer… as much as I admire the hope that “the rapacious, selfish, greed of financial chicanery” ever been “banished forever”, Jesus was throwing the money lenders out of the Temple 2000 years ago. (Chloe Swarbrick described an equally la-la view as you for Stuff.)
      If anything, people will now be hostile to all those (climate-change doomsday) scenarios that imply pedalling back all those things we have come to love and desperately miss, such as unbridled overseas travel in gas-guzzling jets and Ranger SUVs blatting down the motorway.

      Reply
  4. Zedd

     /  6th April 2020

    Only one thing to say “Thank God for Jah-cin-dah !” 🙂 😀

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  6th April 2020

      Why, exactly? 😳

      Not criticising her by that. Just wondering what exactly is she is doing that you are feeling so thankful for?

      Listing more than one reason would be fine.

      Reply
      • Zedd

         /  6th April 2020

        1) regular TV news items; updates

        2) increase in winter energy payment/benefits for low income whanau

        3) appearing to care about all kiwis; business, farming & ‘the workers’

        4) looking CREDIBLE.. rather than just playing party politics

        Reply
  5. Alan Wilkinson

     /  6th April 2020

    I’ve played around with the model C and I talked about a couple of days ago. I added the Health Dept data as of yesterday am and ran a parameter search to find the best fit to the data since 15 Feb (was weird before that) restricting some of the top 5 parameters varied (eg, effectiveness of isolation factor =0.2) and this is what came out fitting model Symptomatic curve to probable and confirmed NZ Infected cases.

    Not looking too optimistic. The links to the actual spreadsheet are here:
    https://yournz.org/2020/04/04/open-forum-sunday-4-april/#comment-405154

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  6th April 2020

      Darn, HTML gobbled some of the above. Should have read “(eg. effectiveness of isolation factor not greater than 0.8, fraction symtomatic not less than 0.2).

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  6th April 2020

        Just a minor observation, in passing. c always abbrieviates his handle to one letter in lower case.

        Don’t you think it’s a bit … 🤔 … well … rude to use a capital C when you do, Al?

        (😉 )

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  6th April 2020

          No.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  6th April 2020

            Ha ! Thpical ! No wonder you need dogs.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  6th April 2020

              Thdubid.

            • Gezza

               /  6th April 2020

              You’re being too hard in yourself there, Al.

              I wouldn’t say that. Just a bit lacking in the social graces, or in paying attention to minor details, perhaps.

              Getting someone’s letter case for their preferred initial wrong is only a minor social faux pas. Easily remedied without expensive psychotherapy sessions.

              Hey, how come I develop a temporary lithp, & then you get one too? o_O

            • Kitty Catkin

               /  6th April 2020

              Have you read Goethe’s thtory about the young man with a lithp whothe name wath Sisyphus ? Poor thod.

    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  6th April 2020

      I added the infectiousness delay to the Symptomatic calculation since that better describes the likely time new cases can be identified. That not only improved the match to the observed case numbers but also gave better looking parameter estimates. They now solve as:
      Infectivity per individual per day per proportion uninfected 0.60
      Isolation Reduction Factor 0.67
      Days infectious per individual 3.00
      Days until infectious 3.00
      Fraction Symptomatic 0.21

      The overall forecast however doesn’t look any better.

      Reply
  6. PartisanZ

     /  6th April 2020

    Give me a break!

    If you were a businessperson and the government asked you “What next?” right now, would you say, “What!?” like “What do you mean?”

    And would you then ask “When” like “Do you mean when the Covid risk retreats? Or do you mean it will never end!? Arrggghhhhhh!”

    She did say something about “Idiots” didn’t she? Jacinda, our ‘leader’ …

    She shall, I predict, stand alongside Michael Joseph Savage in history now, and especially after what she, Grant (who’s a compassionate genius) and the others – Chloe – need to create – Four Wellbeings Ethical Economics with Markets (which are ‘naturally ethical’ without money as we know it) – FWEE Markets … for a FWEE World!

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  6th April 2020

      Wasnt Bill English banging on about ‘compassionate conservative’ and ‘social investment’ …oh and the final leg of the stool ‘crony capitalism’
      And this gem from the 2015 budget
      “Mr English has set aside $52 million in contingency funding to fund work with private sector developers to build affordable houses on under-used Crown land – Housing and Building Minister Nick Smith will begin meeting developers on May 29 to discuss potential partnerships….”
      a complete and utter flop , I suppose you could call it ‘Crony Build’ with any money spent going to consultants and surveyors
      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11452450

      Reply

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