Covid-19 daily update: Monday +67

Key numbers – 67 total new cases  (39 confirmed and 28 probable), total now 1106.

So that’s down a bit again, adding weight to the leveling off trend.

13 people in hospital, 3 in ICU (1 in Wellington and 2 in Auckland), 1 critical

A new cluster from Rosewood rest home in Christchurch. 15 confirmed and probable cases. 20 residents have been moved to Burwood Hospital to be cared for by the DHB (someone close to my family works there).

On other medical treatments – don’t delay seeking help, if in doubt ring Healthline, ring 111 if an emergency.

Ongoing work is going into contact tracing.+

Bloomfield: “Some success so far, but our aim is to stamp it out” – not change on that message.

When we lower to level 3 they are actively looking at border controls – who can come through and for what reason. Possibly mandatory quarantine. All being considered.

As at 9am, 6 April 2020
Total to date New in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 911 39
Number of probable cases 195 28
Number of confirmed and probable cases 1,106 67
Number of cases in hospital 13
Number of recovered cases 176 20
Number of deaths 1

View full details of the confirmed cases.

View details of significant COVID-19 clusters.

Lab Testing Tests Date
Total tested yesterday 3,709 5 April 2020
7-day rolling average 2,846 30 March to 5 April 2020
Total tested to date 39,918 9 March to 5 April 2020
Supplies in stock 44,571 6 April 2020

Source: ESR EpiSurv extract as at 09:00 6 April 2020.

Not mentioned and I presume not counted: Man found dead in Wellington lodge after suffering flu-like symptoms

Police are investigating the death of a man who had flu-like symptoms at a Wellington lodge last night.

Police responded to the sudden death of a man in his 40s at a Newtown address about 8.35pm on Sunday.

The cause of death is unknown but it is not being treated as suspicious, and the death has been referred to the Coroner, police said.

Image

RNZ Live:

The Director General of Health is backing fashion retailers who are operating online as an essential business.

Businesses are being told to make a judgement on which of their products are deemed as essential non-food items.

Ashley Bloomfield says he is not concerned that some fashion retailers are continuing to operate, as the weather is getting cooler and people need to make sure they have appropriate clothing to keep warm.

He says each business knows what the expectations are to keep staff and customers safe.

So businesses can decide for themselves what’s essential and trade accordingly? This seems odd at this stage.

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36 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  6th April 2020

    That data gives a very much happier health forecast on the model and a much better fit.
    Parameters now:
    Infectivity per individual per day per proportion uninfected 0.38
    Isolation Reduction Factor 0.35
    Days infectious per individual 3.00
    Days until infectious 3.75
    Fraction Symptomatic 0.88

    Forecasting about 15 deaths by end of August. Number of infectious cases already dropping.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  6th April 2020

      A bit of early data missed out. Still a very good fit but substantial changes in params and not quite so good outcome:

      Infectivity per individual per day per proportion uninfected 0.83
      Isolation Reduction Factor 0.15
      Days infectious per individual 3.00
      Days until infectious 3.75
      Fraction Symptomatic 0.20

      Forecasting 45 deaths by end August.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  6th April 2020

        The chart showed a sudden dip in the infectious number in the community. Checked the data and it shows a sudden drop in infected international arrivals from 26 March.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  6th April 2020

          Interesting numbers about arrivals from China in US since Jan 1

          Since Chinese officials disclosed the outbreak of a mysterious pneumonialike illness to international health officials on New Year’s Eve, at least 430,000 people have arrived in the United States on direct flights from China, including nearly 40,000 in the two months after President Trump imposed restrictions on such travel

          Reply
          • duperez

             /  6th April 2020

            I’ve pointed out somewhere else one thing about the numbers entering the US from China. It was hearing Trump say they’d stopped people coming in from China and a bit down the line it being said that 40,000 had come in.

            It puts into perspective people here complaining about or being puzzled about discrepancies in numbers with all the ‘which category should they be put in?’ factors and the number in question being three or seven and it being of world shattering importance for them to be accurate.

            To use the tone of the Big Man, “40,000, it’s a lot of people, a lot of people.”

            Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  6th April 2020

        My current model suggests there are at least 800 infectious cases in the community the Health Dept doesn’t know about. That number is dropping off but will require a major contact tracing and isolation campaign to continue after any easing.

        Reply
        • Conspiratoor

           /  6th April 2020

          Exacury, what happens after easing is where the black magic lies

          Reply
      • Conspiratoor

         /  6th April 2020

        You can’t forecast anything without framing this in the context of lockdown levels and duration. These are proving to be major drivers and unless I’m mistaken your model ignores them

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  6th April 2020

          I ignore the future but not the past. Yes, this is the current trajectory and is true for the future only as far as we maintain the current effective level of control on infectiousness and imported virus carriers. As for the past, the model currently finds the lockdown including controls on international arrivals brought about an 85% reduction in average infectivity. So the model is far from ignoring that.

          Reply
    • Conspiratoor

       /  6th April 2020

      Al, just looking at this now. Looking at the numbers on a day by day basis adds no value so I think I’d prefer to work with rolling 7 day stats. A question…

      If the confirmed have averaged 50 a day over the last 7 days. With tests for the same period averaging 3081 and % +ve running at 3.1% then this corresponds to 95 infected. How do you reconcile 95 infected (+ve tests) with a daily average confirmed of 50?

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  6th April 2020

        Why do I need to reconcile them, they are not my numbers? Obviously they diverge so I would suspect they don’t span the same dates.

        Reply
        • Conspiratoor

           /  7th April 2020

          Bunkum

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  7th April 2020

            Excellent post. Impressed with its clarity.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  7th April 2020

              Do you know what on earth he is on about?

            • Conspiratoor

               /  7th April 2020

              Let me try this one more time. I never asked whether these are your numbers, I was asking what your thoughts were on an apparent discrepancy in the numbers provided by the health ministry

              Take any period you like, the number of confirmed cases have never got close to 95 a day. Yet if you average the % daily infections over the last week you get 95. My assumption is that a confirmed case corresponds to a +ve test

              From pg’s post yesterday…

            • Gezza

               /  7th April 2020

              Do you know what on earth he is on about?

              No, sometimes don’t know what he’s on about – when he posts in riddles.

              However, on this occasion, I thought he was very clear.

              He should keep up the good work.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  7th April 2020

              For a start, you can’t average percentages because the base numbers those reference are different. Eg. a high percentage on a day that has few tests messes up the average. As you can see exactly that happened on 29-30 March.

            • Conspiratoor

               /  7th April 2020

              Now you are being disingenuous Al. Use weighted averages, my question remains valid

        • Blazer

           /  7th April 2020

          ‘hmmm…what does this equal..

          52−x+x−5x+2+3x+8×2−4=0{5}{2-x}+{x-5}{x+2}+{3x+8}{x^2-4}=

          Reply
  2. David

     /  6th April 2020

    I think they need to stop the probable case numbers its just confusing whats going on, how many probable are joining the confirmed cases and how many probable didnt end up getting it.
    The probable cases are growing a lot faster than the confirmed and one cant help wonder if its just to give us the highest number possible to keep us compliant. Sorry I just dont trust the numbers and info we are being given and it feels like message massaging for political purposes. I generally support what they are doing but it feels like they are hiding amongst the probables.

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  6th April 2020

      I agree. I hope that the recoveries are being subtracted.

      Reply
  3. Pink David

     /  6th April 2020

    This is curious. On March 19th the UK downgraded COVID-19, it’s longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  6th April 2020

      from your link
      “They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.”
      I think HCID covers Ebola, Marburg, Lassa fever, Moneypox and similar which are treated only in specific centres and special wards with extreme isolation measures

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  6th April 2020

        It’s hard to assess the real mortality rate as we don’t know the real number of infections. The working hypothesis in my model is about 0.02% but there is little data to support that yet.

        Reply
        • Griff.

           /  6th April 2020

          Did Dr Roy teach you modeling Alan?
          The data is coming in on death rates .
          Places are recording many times more death than normal on top of those attributed to Covid 19.
          Netherlands total death rate translated form source
          https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6042566/dodental-stijgt-met-164-nog-eens-336-coronapatienten-in-ziekenhuis.html

          Usually, between 2,700 and 3,000 deaths are reported during this time. In the week of March 19-25, 2020, it is estimated that between 871 and 1181 people died more than usual

          The deaths officially attributed to covid 19 were only 386 on the 25.
          Also.
          https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUm_MlXXsAYWI8_?format=png
          https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUnQOQxWsAcsjnA?format=jpg

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  6th April 2020

            Still don’t know the deaths/infections rate. Even at 0.2% that would be 10,000 in NZ for the whole population and we know it is highly infectious. In Netherlands 35,000.

            Reply
            • Griff.

               /  6th April 2020

              The fatality rate is more like 2% Giving 100,000 deaths if we all get it .
              There is no reliable evidence for a large number of unreported asymptomatic infections as some have claimed .
              S Korea tracked and tested hundreds of thousands of potential contacts from early on. They also have a high ratio of resolved cases to infections.
              Three ways to get a death ratio from their data .
              Deaths to total cases .deaths to resolved cases and deaths to cases from two weeks ago
              Their death rate is between 1.6 and 3 % depending on how you Calculate it.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  6th April 2020

              Time will tell. Our death rate to cases two weeks ago is 0.4% but early days. Also that is assuming no asymptomatic or undetected cases which is certainly wrong.

            • Duker

               /  7th April 2020

              “There is no reliable evidence for a large number of unreported asymptomatic infections as some have claimed .”
              Diamond Princess and Stanford study , all people on ship were tested.
              It was the high 40% that had little or no symptoms.
              Best evidence we have both large numbers, large spread (900?) and age of those onjboard.
              Try and come up with some source rather than your uninformed de bunking

          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  6th April 2020

            The death rate parameter in the model is just an educated guess at the moment until we have a pattern of deaths. However if it was 2% the model would be showing more than 10 deaths here by now. Also I don’t have any stats on hospitalisations so that rate is even more unknown at present.

            Reply
            • Conspiratoor

               /  7th April 2020

              Hospitalizations are known and increasing. As they approach capacity and then exceed it, it is reasonable to assume the death rate will increase

            • There’s also a lag between hospitalisation and death of some days. It seems that Covid takes a while to deteriorate and then kill.

              Boris has had symptoms for 11 days.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  7th April 2020

              Evidence from Italy now in is that hospitalisation should be minimal to reduce the death rate from cross-infections.

            • Griff.

               /  7th April 2020

              Data is here Alan .
              https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases
              It is called googling ask the right question and get the answer in seconds .

              I can not see any reason why as this progresses our death rate will be any different from the rest of the world.
              Our cases are skewed towards a younger demographic due to the large number of 20 to 30 year olds returning infected from over seas presently .This will probably not be maintained as community infected cases increase .

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  7th April 2020

              US numbers showed 7% in hospitals. Ours are just over 1%. It is just a daily snapshot with no detail as to how it has been tracking. I’ll give it a bit more thought today. I concentrated on the other variables first.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  7th April 2020

              What I need is total NZ hospitalisations day by day. Anyone find that?

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