Daily update Tuesday: +52 total 1160

New Zealand now has 54 new cases (32 confirmed, 22 probable )of Covid-19. Total cases now 1160.

This significantly down on previous days but could be the weekend effect as we had last week.

12 people in hospital, four people in intensive care – this is creeping up.

42,826 tests in total.

Community transmission is at 2%

As of last night, $6.6 billion worth of the wage subsidy helped over 1 million New Zealanders in employment.

As at 9am, 7 April 2020
Total to date New in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 943 32
Number of probable cases 217 22
Number of confirmed and probable cases 1,160 54
Number of cases in hospital 12
Number of recovered cases 241 65
Number of deaths 1

Regional totals:

Total cases of COVID-19 by DHB

Everyone needs to keep strong on isolation and following the rules, including over Easter.


The Australian death rate is climbing, currently 42 deaths and 5,844 confirmed cases from 304,000 tests.

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49 Comments

  1. David

     /  7th April 2020

    702 active cases against 735 yesterday, progress.
    The probable cases include people who have tested negative but have been in close contact with someone infected, I think this stinks of making the figures higher than the true number to keep the citizenry maleable and fearful.

    Reply
    • I don’t think the total or active cases matter very much apart from trends, and that looks fairly good.

      I think most people will be more concerned with numbers in hospital, in ICU and dead, they are hard to manipulate, and they look relatively good for New Zealand.

      Reply
      • David

         /  7th April 2020

        The trend looks really good and I think what we have done has worked remarkably well but they shouldnt use probable numbers to stack the totals.
        Probables are folk who have tested negative but the clinician thinks they might have it. They are people who live with an infected person but are showing no symptoms. We have a dearth of knowledge about this thing so could we at least work with WHO guidelines like every other country on earth and keep the picture as true as possible.
        Today all the confirmed cases could have been from last 7 days probables and we have had zero new cases today, probably not but who knows. We need the state to be as honest as possible given what they are asking us to do.

        Reply
    • duperez

       /  7th April 2020

      Some won’t trust any of the numbers unless they’re batting and it’s their mates on the scoreboard.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  7th April 2020

        Suppose you might as well use a sporting analogy.There’s not much sport happening.

        Reply
        • Except Crusaders players practicing together. Surely they must have known the rules, and their employer should have made them clear to them.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  7th April 2020

            Yes ! 😡

            They’ll all have to go! >:D

            Who else have they got? 😳

            Reply
          • It’s not acceptable at all and I deleted it as soon as I saw it, which is now. But the problem is you’ve also highlighted it in several comments. Should I delete them?

            Reply
          • Kitty Catkin

             /  7th April 2020

            Yes, please. I found it quite sickening.

            Reply
  2. lurcher1948

     /  7th April 2020

    SO for the umpteenth time,who would do a better job then our PM Jacinda Ardern at this time..Simon Bridges who lives in his car infecting the North Island why travelling back and forth who has a cheap router, unable to get better bandwidth…GO TO HARVEY NORMAN Simon DONT BE CHEAP,mine is a mid-range D-LINK pumps out 103 MPS at 5GHz

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  7th April 2020

      Simon Bridges is on the Epidemic Committee.

      He can’t infect anyone if he doesn’t have the virus. No one can. How can you suggest that he’s infecting the North Island when he’s not contacting anyone ? That is scurrilous.

      He needs to travel and has been classed as an essential worker who is among the few who can travel to work.

      Reply
    • Blazer

       /  7th April 2020

      Harvey Norman, a multi national Australian Corporation who recently raised about $3.4 billion in new capital for expansion ,after declaring 100’s of millions in profits,took just over a week to inform landlords that they would not be paying rent in NZ,and then applied for wage subsidies.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  7th April 2020

        3/4 of a billion.

        Reply
      • Pink David

         /  7th April 2020

        There shops in NZ have been force to close by the Government, so they don’t have access to use the properties. Why would they pay rent?

        As for the capital, what do you think they should do with it? If they did what you desire with it, would they be breaking the law?

        Reply
      • Pink David

         /  7th April 2020

        Just some actual facts for reference.

        https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/harvey-norman-s-174m-capital-raise-falls-short-20191016-p53156

        Harvey Norman’s $174 million capital raising has fallen $7.8 million short,

        Proceeds from the raising will be used to reduce Harvey Norman’s net debt and help Australia’s largest furniture and homewares retailer ride out a potential retail recession. Harvey Norman has to repay $370 million of about $626 million in net debt in December.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  7th April 2020

          Health Act allows compensation to be paid to who the DG of Health has closed by his S70 Epidemic regulations
          Every person who suffers any loss or damage by the exercise of any of the powers conferred on the medical officer of health by this section shall be entitled to compensation to be determined in case of dispute by the District Court, whose decision shall be final. S71 .(2)

          Reply
        • Blazer

           /  7th April 2020

          your figures are correct….add this…

          However, Harvey recently told Inside Retail that while other retailers complain of a weak retail market, he doesn’t necessarily see it that way.
          “I think ‘struggle’, ‘recession’ and ‘tough’ are pretty strong words. It’s not that bad,” Harvey said.
          “It’s not great – trying to get to last year’s figures is difficult – but we wouldn’t have made $574 million [reported profit before tax] if it were so terrible.”Business Insider

          Reply
  3. Duker

     /  7th April 2020

    CDC US mortality numbers ( not completely up to date but give good comparisons with other deaths
    Covid deaths 1889
    All Deaths this year 466,000
    Pneumonia deaths 26,000
    Covid is higher of course but ‘comparisons’ can be made as all other deaths are ‘out of date too’

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  7th April 2020

      So there are roughly 13 pneumonia deaths for every covid one. I saw that the % of expected deaths (all told ?) for the week was down.

      Reply
  4. lurcher1948

     /  7th April 2020

    David Seymour, the patron saint of AR15 gun owners and the free speech saint for ALL alt rightwing NAZ,hateI blogs, is he a better pm than PM Jacinda Ardern,
    PS not one person said Simon Bridges….wow the right love you Simon

    Reply
    • Kitty Catkin

       /  7th April 2020

      He is none of those things that you falsely accuse him of being, but yes, he would be a better PM. He could hardly be a worse one.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  7th April 2020

        popped in for a cuppa has he?Bol.

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  7th April 2020

          Don’t be absurd. He has been here but he is on the Epidemic Committee and wouldn’t be socialising with anyone.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  7th April 2020

            Bridges has homes in Auckland and Wellington as well as family home in Tauranga
            “Hon Simon Bridges (National, Tauranga)
            Family home (jointly owned), Mātua, Tauranga
            Apartment (in St Catherines Superannuation Scheme), Parnell, Auckland
            Apartment (in St Catherines Superannuation Scheme), Central Wellington
            Commercial property (owned by EHJ Property Limited), Central Tauranga

            and then there is the dog ate his homework internet doesnt work back in
            up market Matua in Tauranga

            was it only a week ago Simon was questioning travel ” “I live in Tauranga in the suburb of Matua… Let’s say it’s 15-18 kilometres from Mount Maunganui beach,” Simon Bridges said. “Can I drive to the beach and go for a walk ?’

            Bridges didnt mention that he was driving 525 km regularly when he has a place to stay in central wellington

            Reply
    • Corky

       /  7th April 2020

      David is worried about the amount of data not being released for businesses to make important decisions. Conversely, he is also worried about data being collected without the usual checks and balances. Numbers, not names, as the talkback host suggested to him. He agreed.

      I also see my adage about socialism being like rust is proven again. Andrew Little has moved on prisoners right to vote. Hasn’t this guy anything better to do then worry about constitutional rights for ferals?

      Reply
      • duperez

         /  7th April 2020

        Write to Little and ask him if he hasn’t got anything better to do and tell him what you think he should be doing. You probably have a line on what he’s involved in, what amount of time and energy he’s spending on his areas of responsibility and how his activities should be prioritised.

        According to some of the intelligentsia he’s ‘Angry Andrew.’ If he tells you to “Fuck off and grow up up,” let us know.

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  7th April 2020

          ”Write to Little and ask him if he hasn’t got anything better to do and tell him what you think he should be doing.”

          Why? I wouldn’t waste my time. I only write to politicians on rare occasions? And then it’s mainly for information, not to argue politics.

          ”According to some of the intelligentsia he’s ‘Angry Andrew.’ If he tells you to “Fuck off and grow up up,” let us know.”

          I forgot to add..not only do socialists never sleep…they are also nasty; sometimes in the most cunning of ways.

          Reply
          • duperez

             /  7th April 2020

            Why write to him? Because you’re not sure he has better things to do with his time and you don’t know what he’s doing and are clearly concerned about that. You could find out. Why write? Because you’re slagging him off implying he’s got nothing important to do and that prisoners getting the vote isn’t something important enough to spend time on. You could reassure yourself after he’s told you what he’s up to that he hasn’t got anything important to do.

            You only write to politicians on rare occasions to get information? A perfect chance then for you to do that. Not only that, since he’s got nothing important to do and is wasting his time on the rights of citizens, he’d surely love to get a letter from you and he’d have all the time in the world to do it.

            Your fine sense of discernment somehow doesn’t run to categorising your own consistent contributions as nastiness. Your tender sensitivities are upset when similar are headed towards you.

            Reply
            • Corky

               /  7th April 2020

              ”Your fine sense of discernment somehow doesn’t run to categorising your own consistent contributions as nastiness. Your tender sensitivities are upset when similar are headed towards you.”

              Yes, I hear this all the time. And apparently I have a thin skin. I also according to one troll always have to have the last word.

              You lot have always been masters of setting the narrative and trying to suck everyone in. I works too, most of the time. But it has no effect on me. What you perceive as my ”tender sensitivities,” is just me holding a mirror and reflecting your hate back on you.

              Yes. I do post nasty things sometimes. But its not couched in fluffy bs to look innocent. I just say it straight…unlike you.

  5. Kitty Catkin

     /  7th April 2020

    It seems that the national house arrest will be extended for another week.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  7th April 2020

      Qarantine …no one has said another week at all… its tracking as they expected
      [deleted medical accusation]
      2. Difficulty with language or communication:
      6. Difficulty with executive functioning:
      5. Changes in behaviour:- Some people become suspicious, defensive, blaming others, Some people find it difficult to let go or stop doing things and appear quite stuck or obsessive about things that do not really matter that much to others.
      https://www.rememberdecember.nz/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIjLjMoMjV6AIVQo-PCh1KNwfZEAAYAiAAEgIr3fD_BwE

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  7th April 2020

        Understand that PG but shouldnt complete and outrageous fake news be deleted too in the circumstances PG.
        Thats rather more harsher words if it ‘isnt medical’

        Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  7th April 2020

          That is very odd; Newshub (?) announced a 7 day extension via Peeni Henare. It must have been misleadingly worded. It certainly sounded as if the lock in was being extended. If it’s not so, they will have misled a lot of people.

          I did say ‘it seems’ .

          Reply
        • Kitty Catkin

           /  7th April 2020

          It was not fake news; I was repeating in good faith what I’d just read. Peeni Henare announced another 7 days of national emergency. Google it if you don’t believe me. Don’t call me a liar, please. it’s becoming annoying.

          Reply
  6. Pink David

     /  7th April 2020

    Just for fun, I do wonder when people will start to realise just exactly what has gone on.,
    2019 was Austaila’s worst flu season for some time. 900 dead. 2017 saw 1100 die.

    There are currently 45 deaths from C19 in Australia.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/early-outbreaks-to-blame-for-worst-flu-season-on-record/11949320

    Reply
    • duperez

       /  7th April 2020

      Just for fun I wish we’d have the specifics from those with countervailing views who rubbish those we’ve listened to and the actions taken. Specifics of what would have happened if from day one everyone had said “it’s just the flu” and treated it as such. All around the world.

      The funny thing is those with the great ‘it’s just the flu’ view will likely all be alive years into the future to crow about how ‘back in 2020 I knew what should have happened. I was right.’ If they were wrong they’d quite likely have be dead and not able to brag about how wrong they were. 🙃

      Reply
      • Kitty Catkin

         /  7th April 2020

        No one’s said it’s just the flu; that’s a straw man. They have said that many, many more people die of the flu each year; 5-600 in NZ.

        Reply
      • Pink David

         /  7th April 2020

        “Just for fun I wish we’d have the specifics from those with countervailing views who rubbish those we’ve listened to and the actions taken.”

        There are many voices who are seriously credible and who have provided specifics on why the actions being taken are, at best, very misguided, and at worst increasingly destructive who are getting zero attention. All of the focus is on some very poor data which has almost no meaning other than as a tool to scare a population into compliance.

        “If they were wrong they’d quite likely have be dead and not able to brag about how wrong they were.”

        Spare a though for all those who will be dead as a result of the actions taken to protect them from C19. The economic damage from this reaction will kill far more than C19. If you do not understand that impact, you have no place in the discussion.

        The only ‘evidence’ of C19 being a major killer exists exclusively in computer models. In addition to this, actions taken by governments to isolate are entirely based on the premise that the disease is either not present, or present only in small numbers of people.

        There are perfectly credible studies showing that it’s possible half the world has already had C19. It’s also quite possible the bad Australian flu season in 2019 WAS C19.

        Reply
      • Pink David

         /  7th April 2020

        I’ll give you one specific challenge on a simple element of the policy being followed.

        One of the best treatments for respiratory illnesses, which includes C19 is very simple. It is being outside. Being inside helps create a better environment for C19. If the public policy goal was to combat C19, the advise should make it clear for people to get outside as much as possible. Instead the advice is the opposite. That is a terrible error.

        Reply
  7. Reply
  8. Alan Wilkinson

     /  7th April 2020

    Spent most of the day trying to figure out what I should do with the model to cope with the international arrivals properly which account for nearly half the total confirmed and probable cases. The first problem is that they are extraneous to the calculations of how many new cases should be produced by the existing cases here but they add to the existing cases. I decided to tackle that by removing them from the reported cases the model matches but letting them boost the number of infected in the country. While that seemed the correct solution it left big discrepancies in the first half of March where the reported cases fall far short of the expected numbers from the now known numbers of infected travellers that had arrived. I can only presume it came from unreasonable restrictions on tests being done only on overseas travellers.

    I can only get a good fit to this filtered data from the start of the lockdown on 26 March. Here is the chart and the parameters.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  7th April 2020

      As you can see, it is not optimistic about the future trend. We’ll await more data.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  8th April 2020

        Nice use of chart Al.

        Did I get a thank you from you for pointing you in the direction of imgflip for easy image posting here?

        Reply
  9. Alan Wilkinson

     /  8th April 2020

    Here’s a believer for Ishmael and PG:
    https://abc7.com/coronavirus-covid-19-chloroquine-hydroxychloroquine/6082485/

    Sure, it’s just anecdotal but when nothing is tested that’s all you have. Good news is that it’s worked for the worst affected patients not mild symptoms. In combination with zinc and antibiotics.

    Reply

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