Daily Covid update – 18 new cases, 49 more recovered

Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield  back again today after a couple of days off media duties (he’s likely to have other stuff to do).

18 new cases (14 confirmed and 4 probable) for a total 1331

A total 471 recovered, up 49 so more recovered than new cases.

14 in hospital, 5 in ICU, one critical.

No more deaths so that total is still 4. Dr Bloomfield warns there could be more covid-19 deaths in the coming days.

The Wellington man who died on Friday was connected to the Bluff wedding cluster.

Testing yesterday was down due to Easter at 2421 for a total of 61,167

Rosewood residents were last week transferred to Burwood Hospital but aren’t count as hospital patients because they are getting the same level of care as they would have at the rest home with their GP.

As at 9am, 12 April 2020
Total to date New in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 1,049 14
Number of probable cases 281 4
Number of confirmed and probable cases 1,330 18
Number of cases in hospital 14 -1
Number of recovered cases 471 49
Number of deaths 4 0

Note: The number of confirmed and probable cases reported in the last 24 hours includes cases which were entered on an earlier date as ‘under investigation’ or ‘suspected’ whose status has now been changed to confirmed or probable.


 

 

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53 Comments

  1. David

     /  12th April 2020

    This is great news, lock down has worked but we are now almost at the tipping point where the cure is more harmful than the disease.
    No point in amputating your leg for an ingrowing toe nail.

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  12th April 2020

      what about gangrene?…she’ll be right.

      Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  12th April 2020

      Could be an Easter artifact of reduced testing/ contact tracing. Next week will tell.

      Reply
  2. Alan Wilkinson

     /  12th April 2020

    Looks like the rate of new cases has dropped over Easter. Probably all the people hiding out at their baches instead of queuing for their groceries.

    More seriously it would be helpful to know how many new cases are intra-bubble rather than inter-bubble.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  12th April 2020

      No .. testing is those with symptoms, ( and connected to clusters) the infection would have been caught a week back
      Dont forget the turn around in testing isnt ‘same day’

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  12th April 2020

        It was a jest with a dig at what is safer.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  12th April 2020

          The main reason for not letting people travel further , makes tracing that much harder and of course spreads any virus wider as you come into contact with different groups
          “it must be Stamped out !”

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  12th April 2020

            The main justification for social isolation within your bubble is that you don’t come into contact with different groups. That is equally true practised both at home or at your bach.

            Reply
            • Sure, but we were asked to go to one residence and stay there for the duration of the lockdown. They didn’t want people travelling to and from holiday homes. The wanted to minimise travel for any reason.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  12th April 2020

              It’s obvious what they wanted. Much less obvious what was justifiable. As a UK lawyer states:
              Police interventions during the pandemic must be targeted at preventing the spread of Covid-19, be strictly limited to what is illegal and remain proportionate, otherwise they will waste their own valuable time and risk being sued.

            • One poor sod was had up for walking too far from his house. How far is too far ?

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  12th April 2020

              I don’t think we will find out until someone sues the police for unlawful arrest. Probably a young guy out in the middle of the night won’t be the one to do it.

  3. duperez

     /  12th April 2020

    Bloomfield likely to have other stuff to do? It’s easy to have a simplistic perspective of the nature of people’s jobs when all that is seen is a particular facade and that briefly. Some think what they see is the total of what a person does.

    Parts of this article touch on some of the elements of Bloomfield’s job.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12324032

    Reply
  4. David

     /  12th April 2020

    A constructive item from Nationals finance guy.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/120975096/coronavirus-agility-and-speed-required-as-we-rebuild-economy

    There is a lot of cash sloshing around and if the government takes a break from regulating everything the place will rebound pretty quickly.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  12th April 2020

      Finance guy ?
      Goldsmith is an historian and politicians speechwriter ?PR ( you know one of those people who who never had a life outside politics), he only got the job as hes a Bridges crony

      Reply
      • duperez

         /  12th April 2020

        An author too don’t forget. 🙂

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  12th April 2020

          Cullen was an historian too but economic history so had a deeper grasp of finances and theory of economics.
          Goldsmith is a financial parvenu but will have a better class of press release probably drafted by someone else.
          I notice hes wanted to over ride property rights with government interference with building leases – to suit small business of course who love to socialise their losses

          Reply
      • David

         /  12th April 2020

        Most of our current cabinet ministers need a lie down after writing a press release let alone a book.

        Reply
  5. Barbara McKenzie

     /  12th April 2020

    So far the average age of those allegedly dead from COVID-19 in NZ is 80. This is consistent with figures out of Italy and elsewhere, which shows that the great majority of deceased have been over 70, and with several underlying conditions.

    In the past steps have been taken to protect the vulnerable from seasonal flu: care homes have closed their doors, people with a cold have kept their distance from new-born babies. That was the right response this time. Huge damage is being done to our country for a cold virus. The government needs to walk back from these draconian measures. https://stovouno.org/2020/04/10/open-letter-to-mps-the-lockdown-is-a-disastrous-error/#comment-1264

    Reply
    • Let us not forget that Italy has one of the highest average ages in the world, that they have a vey high population density…comparing them with NZ is meaningless.

      Reply
    • Duker

       /  12th April 2020

      Rigid quarantine for those over 70 still living in own home, are you OK with that?
      No going out or having visitors , all groceries will be delivered along with medicines.
      However your other conclusions are incorrect
      Switzerland with 8.5 mill population has around 1100 deaths would mean NZ would be at 650 deaths by now if the government didnt act as early as it did

      Reply
      • David

         /  12th April 2020

        Yup, until there is a vaccine or effective cure. What is the alternative ? Its the least damaging to the economy and the health of the population, they dont have to abide by it of course.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  12th April 2020

          Not so fast. Elderly more likely require hospital treatment and they can spread to the health workers plus they have mostly older friends too.
          No the quarantine for elderly is compulsory

          Reply
      • Pink David

         /  12th April 2020

        “Switzerland with 8.5 mill population has around 1100 deaths would mean NZ would be at 650 deaths by now if the government didnt act as early as it did”

        You have absolutely no evidence for this claim.

        Japan has 127m people and 107 deaths. That is some indication that the measures NZ has taken are in no way producing a better outcome.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  12th April 2020

          Dont believe Japans numbers at all, they have a very high proportion of elderly, more so than Italy.
          We already know they lied about Covid cases in Tokyo to prevent the games being cancelled. Even their major businesses financials are complete works of fiction.
          They are probably only counting the young and the elderly ? Old age … as COD

          Sweden even shows online every time some is hospitalised with Covid 19 and their age and other general health.

          Reply
          • Pink David

             /  12th April 2020

            Why do you believe the Swiss numbers? I know for a fact the UK numbers are wrong (far more than actual), over recording is their policy.

            Your ‘beliefs’ have no place in this.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  12th April 2020

              Maybe 5% discrepancy … I thought you said your ‘contact’ had nothing to do …and nothing to do with Covid treatment?
              Japans figures are just so out of whack with reality…its a cultural thing

            • Pink David

               /  12th April 2020

              “Japans figures are just so out of whack with reality…its a cultural thing”

              What if it’s all the other figures that are out of wack?

              Fine to conjecture. The figures for the UK are inflated, that is something we know. We just don’t know by how much.

      • I didn’t suggest that over 70s should be in total isolation; don’t put words in my mouth. That would be appalling cruelty, as it is now, of course. I see no reason why a designated person can’t visit to alleviate the loneliness of old people living alone.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  12th April 2020

          Im definitely putting them in your mouth .. I never said You said this , it was for Barbs above you .
          Of course its ‘cruel’ , its not called quarantine for nothing…perhaps you have heard the word ..look it up.
          Chat over the phone, those women came from the generation that were the first to have almost universal home phones

          Reply
          • Quarantine originally meant 40 days in isolation; (it’s from French via Latin) I didn’t need to look it up.

            For someone in their 80s or 90s who needs home help but for whom this is now illegal because they paid for it, a phone call isn’t much help.

            Reply
    • duperez

       /  12th April 2020

      Yeah, huge damage is being done to our country for a mere cold virus. It’s a hoax one at that too didn’t you know? And for that we lost the Women’s Weekly.

      Reply
      • Pink David

         /  12th April 2020

        NZ is, potentially, going to suffer a 25% hit to GDP. How much of that pain will you feel?

        Reply
  6. For dog owners:

    An animal pyschologist says dog owners should start training their pets now for the end of the lockdown, to avoid separation anxiety.

    Mark Vette says dogs will have got used to having their owners home all the time.

    A sudden return to work could trigger behavioural problems such as howling, soiling and destroying property.

    He says owners need to give their pets some time away from them and to step that up to longer periods.

    Vette says tiring dogs out with a big walk and giving them treats and toys to entertain themselves on their own will help alleviate the anxiety.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/414048/covid-19-live-updates-from-new-zealand-and-around-the-world-on-12-april

    Do you have to do this after every holiday spent at home too?

    Reply
  7. Alan Wilkinson

     /  12th April 2020

    My current model is looking far more optimistic. Tuned it up to assume all cases are isolated once reported and prior to 16 March there was a delay in identifying cases that has subsequently closed up. The top seven parameters result from the data match. Those below are semi-arbitrary guesstimates.

    Model spreadsheet is here:
    https://1drv.ms/x/s!AuhKWHlH5hzQhN507FQv1VbLRzs3mw?e=Nxj3ef

    Reply
  8. Alan Wilkinson

     /  12th April 2020

    Sorry, accidentally trimmed off the key;

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  12th April 2020

      The Community Infections and Detected Infections are derived from the Health Dept data.
      The other lines are calculations from the model. The model match searches for parameters that produce the best fit of the Detected calculation to the Detected Infections reported. Data prior to the 12th March is too sparse and random to match so was excluded in the search.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  12th April 2020

        Are you accounting for mortality can only be a result of having the virus or in this instance having tested positive presumably because of symptoms /tracing
        So the total who have tested positive MINUS those who are NOW clear is the number you should be using for the population. ?

        Iceland seem to have done random testing in a structured way… every 10th person ? and they have some interesting numbers, which confirm almost 50% with virus have no/slight symptoms
        They seem to be ahead of us with 7 deaths, 1700 confirmed and of course only 365,000 or we are 13.7 x as many people … prorata deaths would be 96.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  12th April 2020

          Yes, the population subject to infection reduces with the infected increase. However that is negligible at current levels.

          Reply
    • Pink David

       /  12th April 2020

      “Modeling was invented in Mexico.They fill a bag with candy, blindfold you, and give you a stick. Then they twirl you around and if you are lucky, you accidentally hit the bag and get the candy.”

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  12th April 2020

        No it wasn’t. It’s as old as science. All science is modelling if it isn’t stamp collecting. However it can be done well or badly and used or abused.

        Reply
        • Pink David

           /  13th April 2020

          Alan, this is a good read for you on the topic of used and abused.

          ‘…..models: ‘become exercises in mathematical sophistry’

          ‘The most appropriate use of models is as inter-epidemic tools, to aid retrospective analysis of real epidemics to gain an understanding of their behaviour.’

          Fine to use in retrospect. A model in this field is not predictive.

          Click to access Use_and_abuse_of_mathematical_models_an_illustration_from_the_2001_foot_and_mouth_disease_epidemic_in_the_United_Kingdom.pdf

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  13th April 2020

            Once validated a model should be valid for those conditions but not when they change. It’s really as simple as that. Unvalidated models have no validity at all. When significant conditions are indeterminate then the model has no predictive powers.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  13th April 2020

              Had a skim thru the paper and yes it was a total abuse of the models and abjectly unscientific. Unfortunately the corruption of climate “science” into political activism has spread the disease into other fields. Proclaiming certainty and ignoring doubt while concealing assumptions and often even methods is a clear warning flag. Even worse, invoking the precautionary principle to justify the lack of any rigor. Basically these people are just political scammers.

  9. Pink David

     /  12th April 2020

    Michael is someone who understands data

    Reply
  10. Alan Wilkinson

     /  12th April 2020

    How NZ compares with Australia, not as favourably as advertised or enough to justify all our constraints:
    https://croakingcassandra.com/2020/04/11/comparing-our-experience-with-australia/

    Reply

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