Covid update Monday – 1 more death, more recoveries than new cases

Another death (a man in his 80s from the Rosewoond Rest home cluster died at Burwood Hospital) brings the total to 5.

19 more cases (15 confirmed and 4 probable) brings the total to 1349.

One more in hospital, total 15 – 4 in ICU, 1 critical.

75 more recovered cases (total 546), so nearly four times more recovered than there are new cases.

There are 33 cases at the Rosewood rest home cluster (17 are confirmed, and 16 probable). Three from that cluster who were confirmed cases have died.

Prime Minister Ardern:

If and when we move to level 3 there will still be significant restrictions.

She  says she will set out what levels 2 and 3 will look like later this week on Thursday. It will include information for business, transport and recreation.

We won’t find out whether we will drop from Level 4 until next week, two days before the 4 weeks is up.

Treasury will tomorrow release economic scenarios on GDP, unemployment and the ability for the economy to recover.

As at 8.30 am, 13 April 2020
Total to date New in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 1,064 15
Number of probable cases 285 4
Number of confirmed and probable cases 1,349 19
Number of cases in hospital 15 1
Number of recovered cases 546 75
Number of deaths (as at 1pm 13 April 2020) 5 1
Total cases by DHB, as at 9.00 am, 13 April 2020
DHB Number of cases Change in last 24 hours
Auckland 176 1
Bay of Plenty 41 -1
Canterbury 136 6
Capital and Coast 88 2
Counties Manukau 101 1
Hawke’s Bay 41 3
Hutt Valley 22 -2
Lakes 16 2
MidCentral 28 0
Nelson Marlborough 48 0
Northland 25 0
South Canterbury 11 0
Southern 209 3
Tairāwhiti 1 0
Taranaki 14 0
Waikato 177 1
Wairarapa 8 0
Waitemata 195 3
West Coast 5 0
Whanganui 7 0
Total 1,349 19
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63 Comments

  1. David

     /  13th April 2020

    That Rosewood scenario is very sad, they were already quite poorly. I think we are in that stage where the case numbers go down and the recoveries and deaths will rise.
    Time to allow some more businesses to open right now with appropriate measures, why not forestry but ok with agriculture.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  13th April 2020

      Ag’s producing essential goods. Forestry maybe not quite so essential at Level 4 ?

      Reply
      • David

         /  13th April 2020

        I was thinking more about safety from Covid given they are essentially the same thing.

        Reply
  2. David

     /  13th April 2020

    Australia had only 9 new cases with hardly any of the work restrictions we have which is interesting. I hope the media will be pressing Ardern to look across the Tasman to learn what they are doing better than us…as long as that doesnt hurt the narrative.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  13th April 2020

      What 9 for Australia ?
      ABC says 33
      “The Australian death toll from coronavirus has risen to 61, with a further two deaths recorded overnight.
      There were only 33 new cases of COVID-19 in the country — although Australia’s Chief Medical Officer, Brendan Murphy, cautioned that testing numbers were down over Easter”
      Are you thinking of one Australian state ?

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-13/coronavirus-update-uk-death-toll-boris-johnson-tim-brooke-taylor/12143772

      Any way their death rate isnt 5x NZs to show how good they are !

      Reply
      • David

         /  13th April 2020

        Got it from the World meters website. I would guess this time next week our death rate will be similar to Australias per capita they are just a bit ahead of us time wise thanks to that cruise ship.
        If it is 33 then they are still doing better than us and largely still at work, one can get a haircut, takeaways and your house renovated in Sydney. There seems no urgency to get us back to work we just have to wait for a doom laden treasury plan then we will be saved by Robertsons plan on Wednesday then we have one of those nauseating over acted presentation from our dear leader on Thursday.

        Reply
        • The official Australian stats:

          Of the 6,322 confirmed cases in Australia, 61 have died from COVID-19. More than 356,000 tests have been conducted across Australia.

          https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

          Reply
          • David

             /  13th April 2020

            They also have us 285 cases too many, the unscientific and irrelevant probable number is skewing things. No one else is counting these so aside from political considerations to ensure compliance with the lock down I fail to see why they are counted.
            Certainly not following any science.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  13th April 2020

              Why? Clinical diagnosis can identify cases that swabs/RNA matching doesn’t. The latter is only possible while the disease is very active at present. The former can be used when it isn’t.

        • Griff.

           /  13th April 2020

          This website?
          https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

          10 new cases and 3 new deaths in Australia. For NSW, it should be noted there was a decrease in testing on Easter Saturday with just 840 tests compared to 3,515 in the previous day, therefore resulting in a relatively low number of new cases [source] [source] [source]

          Reply
            • Griff.

               /  13th April 2020

              Yes world meter .
              Unlike you I read the world meter Australia page where it says as above .
              They sourced the information from here.
              https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200412_00.aspx

              NSW health
              COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics
              12 April 2020
              As at 8pm, Saturday 11 April 2020, an additional 7 cases of COVID-19 have been diagnosed, since 8pm 10 April.

              Whilst this appears promising news, it should be noted there was a decrease in testing on Easter Saturday with just 840 tests compared to 3,515 in the previous day.

              This also shows that duker is full of it. He was informed days ago world meter links to their sources and his claim that they are rubbish is just his bias showing yet again.
              World meter gives three sources for their au stats on the 12.
              ABC news, https://www.health.nsw.gov.au and https://www.health.gov.au/

          • Duker

             /  13th April 2020

            How come looking at the Worldmeter gave the wrong numbers…being wrong means wrong no matter where they get them from
            Last week I looked at the actual sources for worldometer…. going to organ grinder not the monkey

            Reply
        • Duker

           /  13th April 2020

          “Got it from the World meters website”
          Thats a junk site totally unreliable.
          However your conclusions are still in grievous error as we can have reliable numbers form ABC news and a story 11:30 am 13/04

          You can make a valid point about the different way different states have their own lock downs, but dont use fake numbers and ‘one day over easter’ isnt the way to do it . this graph of daily cases shows the most recent day is way off the daily average 90+

          Even the official numbers referred to by PG says
          As at 6:00am on 13 April 2020, there have been 6,322 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 33 new cases since 6:00am yesterday.

          Reply
          • David

             /  13th April 2020

            Its quite an impressive graph considering how free they are to go about their commerce.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  13th April 2020

              Hind sight is like that …. looks even better when you use false numbers.
              NZ could have been Ireland
              Australia is really raking in money from breaches , no warnings , its $1000 plus instant fine.

              I see that The States ( who decide individual rules) are expecting them to last 6 months !
              We could be back to level 2 in another 6 weeks

            • David

               /  13th April 2020

              I cant imagine the land of the free staying locked down for 6 months, strange times.

            • Duker

               /  13th April 2020

              Ahh your foresight …does that work like your hindsight ?

            • Duker

               /  13th April 2020

              Australian states not US

  3. Duker

     /  13th April 2020

    Just looked at another country with only partial lockdown ( rough figures are OK)
    ” 24,400 coronavirus cases and 2,643 deaths, has put in place a moderate social policy to combat the spread of the virus without going into a full lockdown”
    Their population is 3.5 x NZ which ‘could’ give us 750 deaths by now.
    It seems that the winter in Northern hemisphere, as it normally does, spreads the virus and kills a lot more .
    This is all with hindsight that we are doing better

    Reply
  4. Conspiratoor

     /  13th April 2020

    Heres a strange thing. Exports during covid are surging …at the same time we’ve got record unemployment. Maybe the economy is not rooted after all.

    It’s an ill wind…

    Reply
    • David

       /  13th April 2020

      Wife is in export shipping and they are going dambusters, best volumes ever. Been a great growing season too and China are playing catch up.
      They have a Twyford problem with businesses being unable to unload their containers and return them for the exporters to use, he said yes then no then yes then no so no one is able to plan anything. He makes David Clark look like he has great judgement.

      Reply
    • Dukeofurl

       /  13th April 2020

      Hospitality , tourism, education sectors arent actual goods that are exported.
      Services are a major part of any economy these days
      Flower exports have crashed, log exports are blocked …. what planet are you on ?

      Reply
      • Conspiratoor

         /  13th April 2020

        Dukeofurl. What time was happy hour?

        From nz stats…

        “For the week ended 31 March 2020 compared with the equivalent week in 2019:

        total imports from all countries were down 3.9 percent ($52 million), from $1.32 billion to $1.27 billion
        total exports to all countries were up 13.2 percent ($172 million), from $1.31 billion to $1.48 billion
        imports from China were down 27 percent ($64 million), from $236 million to $172 million
        exports to China were up 4.2 percent ($14 million), from $336 million to $350 million.”

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  13th April 2020

          Sorted further down , the surge they are talking about are 2% over 1 year when it’s 15% over 2 years back
          Debunked again , some can’t anything right today

          Reply
  5. Duker

     /  13th April 2020

    Winstons gone fishing …from his front lawn

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  13th April 2020

      His hook seems to be upside down ? 😐

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  13th April 2020

        Hes caught a lot of the ‘concerned’ but stupid

        Reply
      • Gezza

         /  13th April 2020

        Oh, I see.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  13th April 2020

          Winston putting space between himself and Jacinda anticipating the coming backlash in election year. Anyone who thinks this wasn’t carefully calculated and posed underestimates Winston.

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  14th April 2020

            You think he may be reading from the manual of the master of PR stunts…Boris Johnson!

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  14th April 2020

              Boris has made the best of a near terminal experience. Are you suggesting Jenny from Invercargill is as silly as you?

  6. David

     /  13th April 2020

    From Stats nz page: Conspiratoor is spot on.

    For the week ended 31 March 2020 compared with the equivalent week in 2019:

    total imports from all countries were down 3.9 percent ($52 million), from $1.32 billion to $1.27 billion
    total exports to all countries were up 13.2 percent ($172 million), from $1.31 billion to $1.48 billion.
    imports from China were down 27 percent ($64 million), from $236 million to $172 million.
    exports to China were up 4.2 percent ($14 million), from $336 million to $350 million.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  13th April 2020

      “Effects of COVID-19 on trade is a weekly update on New Zealand’s daily goods trade with the world from 1 February 2020. Comparing the values with previous years shows the potential impacts of COVID-19.

      We advise caution in making decisions based on this data.”
      and compared with this and last 2 years at 1 Feb -Tues 31 March
      2018 2019 2020
      $9,395,000,000 $10,494,000,000 $10,750,000,000

      The cumulative total [last 2 months] is 2% more than same period last year.

      Since when is 2% change over 2 months ‘gang busters’
      The real change was 14.5% increase over the 2018 period …this was 6 months after election!
      https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/effects-of-covid-19-on-trade-1-february31-march-2020-provisional
      I win this battle of numbers yet again

      Reply
      • David

         /  13th April 2020

        Not really your figures show best figures ever as well, you just proved my point. Given they do containers and there are no log exports it also shows volume of “container” goods going great as referred to in my post. You loose again.

        Reply
  7. Alan Wilkinson

     /  13th April 2020

    Updated my model and little change in the estimated parameters. Model shows infectiousness plumeting towsrds zero. The “after Easter” numbers this week will be crucial.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  13th April 2020

      Just noting if their recovered numbers are accurate the model implies infections are lasting 25:days (not so long infectious though). Seems on the high side.

      Reply
  8. Pink David

     /  13th April 2020

    This prediction didn’t work out that well….

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uks-deadliest-day-set-easter-21802804

    Reply
  9. Patzcuaro

     /  13th April 2020

    Something or the anti vaccination brigade

    Reply
  10. Pink David

     /  13th April 2020

    Trump is about to end the shutdown…

    Reply
    • Patzcuaro

       /  13th April 2020

      Question, is anybody listening? I reckon they will wait for the Fauci ok.

      Reply
      • Pink David

         /  13th April 2020

        Fauci has been fired.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  13th April 2020

          Where’s the link ?

          Reply
          • Pink David

             /  13th April 2020

            See above. Learn to read Trumpian.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  13th April 2020

              Fake news if it hasn’t happened yet.
              Reading Trumpian dumbs you down & strangles your vocab.
              Which is probably why he uses Twitter.

            • Duker

               /  13th April 2020

              Last week it was Kushner having the web site changed to indicate supplies weren’t there for the states….now the boss says they are

              Ahhh the usual Trumpian chaos ..2 steps back then 1 step forward, blame someone new… Repeat

            • Patzcuaro

               /  13th April 2020

              Looks like Trump would like to fire Fauci, but I’m not sure that it would send the right signals in the middest of a pandemic.

              Trump is between a rock and a hard place with the upcoming elections, stay the course and defeat the virus but have a shattered economy or reopen the economy before defeating the virus and have the virus the virus get a second wind.

              I doubt the US health system could cope with an early reopening of the economy.

            • Pink David

               /  13th April 2020

              40,000 health care workers have been laid off because they have nothing to do.

  11. Patzcuaro

     /  13th April 2020

    Also wonderful to see Boris Johnson thanking a his nurses, one from the colonies which were ditched n the 1970s and the other for the EU which was ditched last year. Will the NHS get a finding boost in the next budget?

    Reply
  12. David

     /  13th April 2020

    “Health authorities confirmed a further 4,167 new cases over the 24 hours, bringing the total to 166,019, second only to the US.

    The figures were released on Sunday morning amid strict instructions for the millions of workers involved in non-essential industry and construction activities to return to work on Monday and Tuesday as their two-week ban is lifted.

    The Spanish Government paralysed the ‘non-essential’ sectors for a fortnight from March 30 until April 9. “

    Reply
  13. duperez

     /  13th April 2020

    “It’s like a James Joyce novel written in crayon.”

    Reply
  14. Patzcuaro

     /  13th April 2020

    An interesting article on how the pandemic is affecting the supply of various pharmaceutical drugs, apparently NZ has the only public resource monitoring the supply chain

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/12/drug-ventilator-shortage-c1qoronavirus/

    Reply

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