Daily Covid update Tuesday – deaths up 4 to 9

Dr Ashley Bloomfield:

4 additional deaths, 3 from the Rosewood Rest Home. Total deaths now 9.

Of the new deaths: 2 men in their 90s, one in his 80s, one in his seventies.

This puts a different perspective on New Zealand totals, but is still based on relatively low numbers compared to many countries.

Visits were not allowed but families kept in touch via phone calls and Skype.

Bloomfield said the virus is quite tricky to contain and can spread quite rapidly.

17 new cases (8 confirmed, 9 probable) – total now 1366

15 now in hospital, 3 in ICU, the person in Dunedin still critical.

82 recovered bringing the total recovered to 628.

An unidentified cluster in Auckland has now been acknowledged as a stag party.

Test numbers have recently dropped (similar to Australia) but this is because with isolation the number of all types of viruses is dropping.

As at 9.00 am, 14 April 2020
Total to date New in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 1,072 8
Number of probable cases 294 9
Number of confirmed and probable cases 1,366 17
Number of cases in hospital 15 0
Number of recovered cases 628 82
Number of deaths 9 4

 

Total confirmed and probable cases over time

New confirmed and probable cases over time

Lab testing for COVID-19 as at 9.00 am 13 April
Lab Testing Tests Date
Total tested yesterday 1,572 13 April 2020
7-day rolling average 3,039 7 April to 13 April 2020
Total tested to date 64,399 22 January to 13 April 2020
Supplies in stock 70,826 14 April 2020

 

Leave a comment

25 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  14th April 2020

    As I said, the rest home infections will destroy our media’s complacency and self-praise. So will the coming economic destruction that they won’t escape.

    Reply
  2. Duker

     /  14th April 2020

    They are allmost all that rare species in rest homes anyway . men over 80 and 90

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  14th April 2020

      My model currently expects about ten deaths. The parameters relevant have little confident basis though.

      Reply
      • David

         /  14th April 2020

        I think we will see 10 from Rosewood alone and with the other rest homes I would guess at 40 deaths in all.

        Reply
  3. David

     /  14th April 2020

    With just 444 active cases and just 8 new cases its hard to see why we should be shut down for another 2 odd weeks.
    Give it till Friday and we will have more probable than active cases which is real sciencing

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  14th April 2020

      I’ll cut them slack on the probables, David. Contact tracing is bound to turn up cases which are outside the swab detectable range. I don’t find their numbers unreasonable.

      Reply
      • David

         /  14th April 2020

        They are counting as probables people who have had minor symptoms and could have been in contact with an infected person and have recovered but wernt tested so theoretically they might have had a cold.
        I would prefer that we stick to actual cases and stick to WHO guidelines rather than guesswork which inflates our cases by a third.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  14th April 2020

          Why? Better to trace more thoroughly and isolate probable cases to protect their contacts.

          Reply
          • David

             /  14th April 2020

            I agree, I wasnt meaning stop tracing I think they should test as many people as possible and internally count probables for that purpose. I object to our reported tally including probables when no other country does, its a statistical issue not an epidemiological one and too open to manipulation.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  14th April 2020

              I’m happy they report probables. It makes modelling easier. As you can see in my model it derives a probability of 1 that an infection will be detected. That would not be the case if probables were not reported.

            • I’d rather they reported them when they are definite, especially if other countries don’t report ‘probables’. What’s the point ? It just inflates the numbers and adds to the scaremongering.

  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  14th April 2020

    Updated my model. No change in parameters.
    Data is still potentially impacted by Easter.

    Reply
    • Deaths won’t be impacted by Easter, but numbers tested are likely to be and that will impact on and new confirmed cases.

      Reply
  5. david in aus

     /  14th April 2020

    Imagine if the Ruby Princess cruise ship landed in NZ and not in Australia. That would have meant an extra 18 deaths and 600 cases to NZ and not Australia. The statistics would have appeared a lot worse despite a more severe lockdown.

    Those looking only at death counts miss the element of luck. A better measure of progress is the number of new cases and percentage positive of all tests. For example, in some countries in Europe, 1 in 3 tests positive, which means that the true prevalence is much much higher than the reported rate.

    When you compare the Australia rate and NZ rates, Australia has lower rates of new cases despite being level 3. Level 4 is probably not making much difference compared to level 3.

    If NZ’s goal is the elimination of covid19, they will have to continue level 4 for much longer. Otherwise, what was the point of level 4 compared to level 3 restrictions?

    I don’t think Australia’s goal is the elimination of Covid19, it may be impossible. Instead, copying South Korea’s management of active surveillance and stepwise easing.

    Reply
    • “That would have meant an extra 18 deaths and 600 cases to NZ and not Australia. ”

      Maybe, maybe not. The release of passengers from for Ruby Princess in Sydney was strongly criticised. It may or may not have happened like that here.

      Reply
      • david in aus

         /  14th April 2020

        It was the Ruby Princess passengers who died. The debacle of the disembarkation would have made little difference to the death rate. They died because they were more likely to be older and have comorbid conditions, similar to the rest home patients in NZ.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  14th April 2020

          Cruise ships passengers arent like rest home residents at all. They are the active older set and look after their health better….
          That was something I noticed in the really hot parts of Australia, the obese seemed uncommon.

          Reply
    • Duker

       /  14th April 2020

      The ship did dock here, in a couple of places and we had cases as a result. Most of the passengers were Australian and they went back home.

      Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  14th April 2020

      I don’t think it will have to continue much longer if this week continues the current trend we could already be at the no live infectious and uncontrolled cases in the country.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  14th April 2020

        Some European countries didnt go early enough and are now increasing the lockdown period.
        All those would probably agree now closing up harder earlier was the best choice …but they stuffed it

        Reply
        • David in aus

           /  14th April 2020

          European countries were incompetent. Lockdowns are required if you lost control. They were so incompetent they didn’t realise the extent of disease.

          Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  14th April 2020

          They didn’t have the option to control their borders so long as the EU maintained control.

          Reply
  6. Alan Wilkinson

     /  14th April 2020

    A long list of proposed treatments and vaccines currently being investigated:
    https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/yxmvjqywprz/index.html

    Reply

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