Daily Covid update – confirmed deaths now 12

Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield:

9 new cases (4 confirmed and 5 probable) – total now 1,431

912 recovered (+45)

1 new death confirmed (it was the Invercargill in home death reported on Tuesday), total now 12 (? the MoH hasn’t increased).

18 in hospital, 3 in ICU, 2 critical – so a few more in hospital.

131 health care workers confirmed or probable cases, most infected in the workplace and most of those via workmates.

The contact tracing standard the MoH is trying to achieve is 80% of contacts within 3 days.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern:

(As we already know) Cabinet meets tomorrow at 10:30 am to determine whether level 4 continues after midnight on Wednesday or if it drops to level 3. We will be told at 4 pm tomorrow.

This is going to be a long term project – when we drop to level 3 it won’t be anywhere near a return to normal.

She says quite a bit to explain what the decisions will be based on but it adds little to what is already known.

Businesses should be preparing to be ‘safe to open’ ready for a drop to level 3. This is a shift from ‘essential to open’ on level 4.

Ardern says if anyone has the slightest sniffle or sore throat they should get a test as soon as possible.

She says things are generally going very well but she won’t hint on what tomorrow’s decision will be.

As at 9.00 am, 19 April 2020
Total Change in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 1,098 4
Number of probable cases 333 5
Number of confirmed and probable cases 1,431 9
Number of cases currently in hospital 18 -2
Number of recovered cases 912 45
Number of deaths 11 0

All DHBs had no more cases in the last 24 hours (up until 9 am this morning) apart from Waitemata (5), Canterbury (3)  and Waikato (1).

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases


RNZ: Whanganui person tests positive for Covid-19 with no clear link to its source

The person in their 20s has not travelled overseas, and does not have any known links to the region’s other seven cases, who have all recovered.

The Whanganui District Health Board said it is still investigating how the person got the virus.

ABC News: Canada, US extend border restrictions for another 30 days

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Saturday the U.S. and Canada have agreed to keep their border closed to nonessential travel for another 30 days and he said it will be undoubtedly longer before the restriction is removed.

U.S. President Donald Trump said this past Wednesday that the U.S.-Canada border will be among the first borders to open and said the U.S. and Canada are doing well in handling the pandemic.

Many of Canada’s cases have come from those returning from the U.S and there is a concern that Trudeau might reopen the border again amid pressure from Trump.

 

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31 Comments

  1. I think that if she doesn’t at least go to Level 3, people will become even angrier than they are now at being imprisoned for a virus with 500 victims and having the economy wrecked for that number.

    35 people died of swine flu; three times the number who’ve died of covid. Thousands had it, as I remember, but the country didn’t shut down as a consequence.

    Reply
    • I understand that some people will be angry or annoyed about being required to stay at home most of the time.

      But there are many who seem happy to be as well protected as possible from the spread of the virus, or at least accept the current situation for now.

      Reply
      • David

         /  19th April 2020

        I would imagine that many people are happy to be at home and getting 80% of their wages and just hanging out.
        I am surprised the media have been totally compliant with the states messaging when their industry is one of the worst hit.

        Reply
      • I am not hearing that people are happy being stuck in the house and only let out to walk around the block or go to the supermarket for a virus that has about 500 people as active cases. It’s likely to have a devastating effect on the 500,000 who live alone.

        Funerals and weddings with 10 people are a bad joke.

        ‘Angry and annoyed’ is probably a gross understatement, and I think that a lot of people are not ‘accepting the situation’.

        Reply
        • The people living with domestic violence, unable by law to leave their abusers (the police say that the rates of domestic violence are up, as they expected) won’t be ‘accepting the situation’ and will be beyond ‘accepting the situation’, I imagine.

          The lockdown didn’t prevent the 12 deaths.

          Reply
        • “Funerals and weddings with 10 people are a bad joke.”

          Tough for sure.

          But weddings that end up with 96 Covid-19 infections and at least one death as a result (as per the Bluff wedding cluster) are not a joke, they are real consequences.

          Reply
          • That was one wedding and hardly typical. In areas with no cases at all, it seems senseless to act as if everyone has it. Apart from anything else, one person in the 10 might have it.

            Given the current rate of new cases, the chances of catching it, still less dying of it are slight. In the meantime, people are suffering and even dying because of the lockdown. How much distress and how many deaths are acceptable ‘collateral damage’ ? How many women beaten up because the law won’t allow them to leave are acceptable as collateral damage, and how much mental illness is all right ? Or operations put off because 15 people are in hospital and the hospitals half empty ?

            Reply
            • “Given the current rate of new cases, the chances of catching it, still less dying of it are slight.”

              At the moment, for sure. But if everyone was allowed to gp wherever they liked then that could easily change, and very quickly.

    • Griff.

       /  19th April 2020

      Reply
      • Pink David

         /  19th April 2020

        What are you going to do when you pension gets cut Griff?

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  19th April 2020

          Cullen Fund ….I wonder whos idea was that to put aside large amounts for a future rainy day to make pensions affordable

          The new leader of National back in 2007 wanted NZ to borrow much much more at that time so we could become like a certain Celtic Tiger economy. You know his name !

          Reply
          • Pink David

             /  19th April 2020

            NZ is going to blow a lot more than the total value of the Cullen Fund just in wage subsides and spending this year. That’s before the massive loss in GDP.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  19th April 2020

              Wealth taxes will come in.
              All the tax cutting in the last decade has done diddly squat for the claimed reasons , increase growth rates[ Thats the big lie of Rogernomics, it was always about giving the top 15% a bigger share of economy]
              Even Australia which kept its award system ..its in their constitution.. so that large sections of the workforce have employer-union agreed wages and salaries and hasnt hurt their growth one bit.
              They have a nationwide minimum wage of $24 hr , but that only for those not in an award, and doesnt include overtime and penalty rates, a casual adult supermarket worker in NSW will get $27 during day and higher at evenings and weekends

              Yet their food prices are generally lower , while we have PaknSave owners on rich list with only one store

            • Pink David

               /  19th April 2020

              “Wealth taxes will come in.”

              That’s funny. You are going to introduce a wealth tax at a time when the asset values are falling, companies are going bankrupt, and there is very little market for people to liquidate.

              I’d like to see the outcome for this.

            • Duker

               /  19th April 2020

              Long term my friend.
              Thats why Cullen an economic historian was able to think ahead and have the long game
              Key never to do anything except surf the currency risk waves before becoming PM
              Your worries are nothing, as once even having gross borrowing of $80 bill was unthinkable and that was what Key and English left us .
              Another $100 bill will just still make us a bottom third country compared to all the others who have gone big on stimulus.
              You would think … you know economists would come out with their financial forecasts AHEAD OF TIME to show how good they are .
              Bet Taildragger Economics wont put its own head on the chopping block, yet they are self described experts at this sort of thing.
              But but but ..they say we need more data …smirk

            • Blazer

               /  19th April 2020

              ‘Overseas workers – baristas, chefs, shop assistants and cleaners – were the “economic engine” of the region, but their work often went unheralded.’…..what can you say about this ‘dilemma’ in one of NZ’s most highly concentrated centres of…wealth…

              Air Bnb’s aren’t what they used to be..

              https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121080122/coronavirus-thousands-in-queenstown-facing-hardship-from-covid19-downturn

        • Griff.

           /  19th April 2020

          Well that is a few years away yet mate .’
          I dont buy flash tat that deprecates own my own land and live mostly off it .
          A few beefs in the paddocks pay the rates and insurance. The car is one of the most reliable ones ever made and I have another complete one the same for parts. The Girls beach house is free hold My tinny and motor was brought near new last year so my R&R time costs only a few liters of gas.
          I am all right jack whatever happens I only need about five grand a year to live well. its you poor rich suckers that squander money on crap that will suffer.
          I really don’t care if you cant buy that extra case of this years vintage and upgrade your euro trash shite box for a couple of years.

          Reply
          • David

             /  19th April 2020

            God that sounds incredible. 5k a year I need at least 10 times that just on essentials. Food for two of us is 12k plus, lunch,s out are 10k, power is 7k, rates are 4k, dog food is 4k, wifes hairdresser is 3k, then there are phones, internet, 3 cars, house insurance.
            It certainly gets one up in the morning and hustling.

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  19th April 2020

              ‘hustling’ is an apt term…David…$80 a week on dogfood….not a Maltese is it?

            • How on earth do those things cost so much ? $420 a week for food for you and Dog? $60 a week for the hairdresser ? Blimey. My dog probably eats about $5 worth a week and I don’t buy the cheapest food for him. He has little casseroles in foil.

            • David

               /  19th April 2020

              The biscuits are 185 a bag plus he likes those Jimbo,s meats and the bathing, he is a healthy golden retriever. Dont ask me about the hairdresser but its 300 odd a time.
              I think we do pretty well I have a mate who,s wife can do 18k a month on her credit card which is pretty impressive.

            • Blazer

               /  19th April 2020

              Sacre bleu 18k a month !
              She must be one of the Real facelifts of Fendalton.

  2. Pink David

     /  19th April 2020

    The Swedish perspective.

    This interview by Freddie Sayers of Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, who is an advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Sweden’s strategy), is worth 35 minutes of your lockdown viewing time. He lays out Sweden’s thinking

    The flattening of the curve we are seeing now is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
    UK policy on lockdown and in other European countries is not evidence-based
    The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
    This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
    The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
    The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished, non-peer-reviewed paper have so much policy impact
    Is dismissive of the 510,000 figure that was predicted if mitigation measures were not implemented
    The Imperial College paper was much too pessimistic and did not factor in the now much increased ICU capacity
    Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway, taking no account of real world specifics
    The results will eventually be similar for all countries
    Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
    The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 will in all likelihood turn out to be in the region of 0.1%
    At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will likely be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

    https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  19th April 2020

      “At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will likely be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available”
      Did you make that part up…? I bet it isnt in a peer reviewed paper
      Doesnt make sense as the R value is so low ( 1.3) even for catastrophe conditions.

      Reply
      • Griff.

         /  19th April 2020

        The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 will in all likelihood turn out to be in the region of 0.1%
        “At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will likely be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available”

        It is not worth risking even one death on some Cranks guesses.

        Reply
    • Our death toll has been 1/50 of the annual flu one. The infection rate has also been a fraction of the flu one. I make it 1/148, dividing the average flu one by the entire covid number.

      If these equations are wrong, please tell me so.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  19th April 2020

        Sweden had a daily death rate yesterday of 170…this isnt a model but thats a sort of level 2 restrictions.
        Wake up Kitty , what you are arguing for would have meant you would be included in the total dead.

        Reply
        • I don’t see that at all. Our infection rate would have to skyrocket to make the lowest of the scaremongering figures and the 80,000 dead can be dismissed as the PM’s fantasy, I think, as it would not only mean that the entire population had the virus but more than the entire population.

          I can’t see that it’s worth sacrificing the economy on the ,chance that if we don’t one person might die as Griff says. When should the lockdown end ? When we’re all dead of starvation or the money runs out ?

          Reply
  3. Pink David

     /  19th April 2020

    “Doesnt make sense as the R value is so low ( 1.3) even for catastrophe conditions.”

    How do you know what the R value is.

    Reply
  4. duperez

     /  19th April 2020

    Random thoughts: Everyone who gets the virus is going to die at some stage. No-one knows whether the 69 year old is going to be more constructive and productive and be of more benefit to society than a 19 year old. The 19 year old might die two weeks out of lockdown while driving a stolen car in Christchurch and kill his two mates with him.

    Is telling some older person “suck it up you’re going to die soon anyway” the same as saying to a young person “suck it up, get over it, you’re going to die, you might get cancer next year.”

    I can appreciate there will be some who prefer to go to a friend or family member’s funeral in 6 weeks rather than face the hardship of another fortnight suffering confinement. Or have their friends and family attend theirs.

    I wonder how many of those who say that having freedom taking away by being locked in jail is insignificant and being restricted by being on home detention is nothing, have reached the end of their tethers after four weeks of lockdown? And if they’ll be on whinge wagons again about confinement being easy when it involves someone else. 😎

    Reply

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