Trump was right about Covid, now, maybe

Donald Trump has said many things about the Covid-19 virus that some of them are bound to turn out to be right, at least at one point in time as data and statistics keep changing.

The Federalist: Looks Like Trump Was Right About The Coronavirus Fatality Rate

In early March, President Donald Trump was lambasted for saying on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show that he had a hunch the coronavirus fatality rate, which the World Health Organization pegged then at 3 to 4 percent, was in fact much lower, under 1 percent. Many commentators, myself included pointed out that the beginning of a pandemic medical crisis was not the time to be floating hunches. But, as we always knew was possible, it looks now like the president might well have been right.

Here is what Trump said on March 4:

“Well, I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number. Now, and this is just my hunch, and — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this. Because a lot people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”

He went on to say:

“I think that that number (the WHO number) is very high. I think the number, personally, I would say the number is way under 1 percent.”

Democrats and media pundits blasted Trump for spreading “misinformation.”

New data from random antibody tests conducted in New York State suggest that as many as 2.7 million people statewide have had the coronavirus. That along with the just over 15,000 deaths that have occurred leads to a fatality rate for the virus of .5 percent according to Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Actually the percentages suggested in March weren’t ‘false numbers’, they were based on what was known at the time. No one, Trump included, knew what would actually happen and what fatality rates would be, except from what I saw it was noted that the rate would likely come down as more data was obtained about people who had the virus.

While this data is preliminary, it is backed up by another study in Los Angeles that found 40 times more people had carried the virus then were previously known. This dropped the fatality rate in LA from 4.5 percent to .1-.3 percent.

It is difficult to stress how important these findings are. The 5-week lockdown that has destroyed the American economy was put in place by contemplating what looks to be rather absurd numbers by the WHO.

While the United States has nearly lost a terrible 50,000 lives to the virus, this radical shift in our understanding of just how deadly it really is should make us question not only the logic of the lockdown in the first place, but more importantly how much longer we are going to stay on this destructive course.

It isn’t a radical shift in our understanding, it is a natural progression in our understanding, but it is based on what happened with a lot of extreme action taken. If many places hadn’t locked down when they did, the death rate would have been a lot worse.

The fact of the matter is that back in early March, what Trump was saying made sense.

Not really. Trump was saying all sorts of things, and it was impossible to know which things he was saying then would turn out to ‘make sense’ and be closer to the mark as more data became available. Trump was also saying Covid was like the flu and no worse, and that it would be over soon.

If Trump’s informed “hunch” continues to be confirmed, it will require vast changes in how we are battling the virus.

There’s a more important statistic than death rate, and that’s the number of serious illnesses and deaths – and Trump’s ‘hunches’ on death numbers keep varying. Some time in the future someone will probably write that one of those hunches turned out to be correct.

It would be nice if Trump’s perspicacity on this issue led to the media giving him a little more respect on the Chinese Virus response, but that’s unlikely. Either way, the results are fantastic news. At a .5 percent fatality rate or lower, the coronavirus is not the killer we feared it was, and that should make everyone happy.

Oh happy happy, Only 51,000 deaths and climbing at more than 2,000 per day, and that’s probably under-reporting the number of deaths and death rate.

Trump’s hunch was “under 1 percent’ – that equates to under 3.3 million deaths. It’s likely to be much less than that, but still a very worrying amount.

Another hunch? Trump says the US coronavirus mortality rate is ‘one of the lowest’ in the world

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the United States’ coronavirus mortality rate is “one of the lowest of any country in the world.”

  • When compared only to the 10 countries with the most cases, the U.S. ranks as the second-lowest mortality rate as a percentage of total cases. That means eight of those countries hit hardest by the coronavirus have higher mortality rates than the U.S.
  • The U.S. ranks 12th-highest in the world when it comes to deaths per 100,000 people.
  • When mortality is measured per 100,000 people among the 10 countries with the most cases, the U.S. ranks seventh, with Iran, Germany, and China reporting lower numbers of deaths per 100,000 people.

That’s now, and only compared to countries with the highest death rates.

  • The U.S. has the 33rd-highest mortality rate, measured as deaths divided by total cases, out of the 134 countries tracked by Johns Hopkins. That means more than 100 countries have lower mortality rates than the U.S., although many of those countries reported comparatively few cases.

There are many countries with lower deaths per million population than the US. They are on 155 and climbing (the total world death rate is 25.1 per million).

And the US death toll has doubled in the last 10 days. That isn’t a rate that suggests business and life should quickly switch back to normal.

But that’s the risk that some states are taking: The country’s coronavirus death toll surpasses 50,000 as a few states relax restrictions Friday

A few states are relaxing restrictions on nonessential businesses on Friday amid the coronavirus pandemic, challenging some health experts who believe it’s too soon.

Businesses and customers in states starting to reopen are now navigating new territory: How many will do business, even if allowed?
States easing restrictions Friday include Georgia, which is allowing businesses such as gyms, barber shops, hair salons, tattoo parlors and bowling alleys to reopen, with some guidelines for social distancing.

Restaurants can reopen there Monday, also with distancing restrictions. Ian Winslade, owner of a restaurant in Atlanta, said his establishment will stay closed for now.

“I don’t understand whether or not the public will have confidence to meet with us,” he told CNN Friday
In Texas, the state Friday started a “retail-to-go” approach, allowing retail stores to sell to customers through curbside and delivery.

The Good Records store reopened Friday in Dallas — but only with its owner, Chris Penn, working. He felt comfortable enough serving customers himself, but not yet wanting to expose his employees.

Even if businesses are allowed to open it could be a slow recovery – especially if death rates keep climbing. But Trump keeps promoting re-opening, based on another hunch perhaps.

 

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65 Comments

  1. artcroft

     /  25th April 2020

    If Trump has genuine insight into this virus and the mortality rate, then as a ‘great’ leader surely it was his duty to go out on a limb, defy the naysayers and shepherd the country to safety. Either he lacked the insight or the courage of his convictions. Neither is the mark of a stable genius.

    Reply
  2. It gets worse: Trump claims he was being sarcastic about coronavirus disinfectant comments

    President Trump on Friday insisted he was being “sarcastic” when he seemingly suggested that household disinfectants could be used as a treatment for the novel coronavirus.
    “I was asking a question sarcastically to reporters like you,” Trump said. “Disinfectant for doing this, maybe on the hands, would work. I was asking…when they use disinfectant it goes away in less than a minute.”

    “I was asking a very sarcastic question to reporters in the room about disinfectants on the inside…that was done in a sarcastic way.”

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-claims-he-was-being-sarcastic-about-disinfectant-comments

    Talking ‘sarcastically’ about something like that is worse than talking ignorantly. It sounds like he is trying to blame media again for what he had said.

    Reply
    • What Trump had said:
      “Question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So supposing we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light. And I think you said that hasn’t been checked but you’re going to test it,” Trump said, looking over to Bryan.

      “And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re gonna test that, too. Sounds interesting, right?”

      “And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or, or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets on the lungs and it does a tremendous number, so it will be interesting to check that. So that you’re going to have to use medical doctors. But it sounds, it sounds interesting to me. So we’ll see.

      “But the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute, that’s, that’s pretty powerful.”

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  25th April 2020

        “Donald Trump WALKS OUT of coronavirus briefing after just 22 minutes and refuses to take a single question day after his disinfectant disaster”

        Next step tomorrow is to deny utterly he even said anything about injecting disinfectant

        Reply
    • Zedd

       /  25th April 2020

      IF they had not announced ‘Hes only JOKING’.. or being totally f@cking ignorant; then some of his staunchest followers may have tried injecting disinfectant & really DIED as a result..
      HOW can anyone take him seriously after this debacle ?
      I would suggest he jump the queue & show us ‘how its done’.. his arm out first

      OH HS NM 😀

      Reply
  3. Alan Wilkinson

     /  25th April 2020

    To a simple mind like mine it now looks as though NZ is back where it was in February but now with a wrecked economy and a huge debt.

    So now what? Do we now do what we should have done in February or do we repeat the mistakes for the rest of the year?

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  25th April 2020

      You didn’t contract C19 Al…so alls well if Als…well.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  25th April 2020

        I wasn’t going to anyway, B. With my monastic lifestyle I very rarely even get the flu – especially now I don’t need to go to Auckland every month.

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  25th April 2020

          you spelt ‘monetised’ wrong.
          Sorry to be so pedantic. 🙂

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  25th April 2020

            If you want to apologize it should probably be for commenting while ignorant. But that would be a stretch of introspection too far for you, I think.

            Reply
    • Duker

       /  25th April 2020

      “Do we now do what we should have done in February”
      Like other countries like Australia did … why no they didnt. Sydney was still getting direct flights from WUHAN at that stage.
      The University VC were calling for our China border controls to be lifted ( as UK hadnt done so ) and were planning charter flights to bring thousands of Chinese students into the country very quickly.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  25th April 2020

        What we should have done in Feb:
        1. Require all incoming international passengers to have a clear virus test within two days of boarding, another test on arrival followed by immediate self isolation for 2 weeks.
        2. Require all businesses to comply with social distancing and hygiene guidelines.
        3. Require the same of sport and recreation.
        4. Audit all hospitals, rest home and care facilities to ensure proper precautions, PPE and safety procedures were operational.
        5. Immediately scale up contact tracing and testing bringing in private sector and perhaps military resources to bypass bureaucratic inertia.

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  25th April 2020

          uncanny…Capt Hindsight rides in to save the day!

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  25th April 2020

            I said it all long ago. It was obvious then and it is still obvious to all but the brain-washed Lefty sheep.

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  25th April 2020

              Sunny but breezy day. Gonna go for a drive. Just up to ma’s place; I’d call that local & it’d stand up in Court. Might walk the streamside track there. Catch yous later, bros.

            • Blazer

               /  25th April 2020

              Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido offers a grim lesson in the next phase of the battle against COVID-19. It acted quickly and contained an early outbreak of the coronavirus with a 3-week lockdown. But, when the governor lifted restrictions, a second wave of infections hit even harder. Twenty-six days later, the island was forced back into lockdown.
              A doctor who helped coordinate the government response says he wishes they’d done things differently. “Now I regret it, we should not have lifted the first state of emergency,” Dr. Kiyoshi Nagase, chairman of the Hokkaido Medical Association, tells TIME.
              Hokkaido’s story is a sobering reality check for leaders across the world as they consider easing coronavirus lockdowns: Experts say restrictions were lifted too quickly and too soon because of pressure from local businesses, coupled with a false sense of security in its declining infection rate.
              https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  25th April 2020

              Their problem was internal migration from uncontrolled areas of Japan.

        • Alan Foster

           /  25th April 2020

          Physical impossibility – we used to have about 20,000 people a day arriving in NZ

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  25th April 2020

            If they had to produce a clear virus test result before boarding we would have had a manageable flow.

            Reply
            • Alan Foster

               /  27th April 2020

              This would just trap Kiwis overseas. I’m sure that they would just love you for that. Remember Winston advising Kiwis to get home asap as airlines will shut down. Even now, look at Kiwis begging the Govt to bring them home.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  27th April 2020

              What on earth makes you think they have a right to get on a plane infected thus endangering the crew and everyone else on it?

        • Fight4nz

           /  26th April 2020

          So, happy for the disease to run its natural course. 4. And 5. redundant though, and really just an unnecessary burden on the tax payer.

          Reply
  4. duperez

     /  25th April 2020

    “It isn’t a radical shift in our understanding, it is a natural progression in our understanding…”

    Whether it’s from suffering a radical shift in my understanding or having some natural progressions in my understanding I don’t know. What I don’t understand is that when I post something like this I’m likely to be called ‘deranged.’

    I’ll take a punt in posting a clip that I’m not the one most easily identified as deranged.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  25th April 2020

      Lol. Jesus Christ. What a turd. You can see why Al doesn’t watch videos of Trump.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  25th April 2020

        .. or anyone.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  25th April 2020

          You KNOW that watching Trump would blow apart your perverse conviction of what a cunning & really smart operator, playing games, he really is. The guy is a wealthy, narcissistic shit-for-brains, Al. The people supporting him in US politics are playing him & he’s playing them.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  25th April 2020

            You think it’s different somewhere else, G?

            Reply
            • Gezza

               /  25th April 2020

              Yes. I think in other countries the politicians & those using each other are aware of it & there’s more of an element of trust & loyalty on both sides than with the Trump Show.

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  25th April 2020

              Not sure Simon would agree.

  5. There are vanishingly few people who take The Federalist, a conspiracy mongering fringe hate site, seriously. Sadly, Trump is one of them.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  25th April 2020

      Actually I find most articles by Hemmingway there well researched and insightful.

      Of course if you just want the correct Lefty opinions and abuse it’s not the place for you, Ishmael.

      Reply
    • Pink David

       /  25th April 2020

      “The Federalist, a conspiracy mongering fringe hate site, seriously.”

      Good to see you fine sense of perspective. Next you will tell us Trump is LITERALLY Hitler

      Reply
  6. Pink David

     /  25th April 2020

    “Actually the percentages suggested in March weren’t ‘false numbers’, they were based on what was known at the time.”

    Untrue.

    Reply
  7. Duker

     /  25th April 2020

    “New data from random antibody tests conducted in New York State suggest that as many as 2.7 million people statewide have had the coronavirus. ”

    This is almost certainly false news…. its similar to blood tests taken in California which also showed high level of anti bodies. These were draft papers which werent even peer reviewed and like many papers either gets with drawn or substantially changed

    The statistical methods and the possible false positive rate of the test have been roundly panned by people who know about such minor details. Existing Coronaviruses that are common in humans mostly cause colds, the test may be picking these up. There is so much uncertainty about anti body tests as no two people with have exactly the same antibodies.

    So no, Trump was wrong again

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  25th April 2020

      I agree with you on the tests. The California result was absurd and the tests clearly faulty.

      Reply
  8. The tragic consequences of believing in Trump are already playing out in Poison Control Centres around America

    https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/494548-maryland-emergency-hotline-receives-more-than

    Reply
  9. duperez

     /  25th April 2020

    Quote from comments in a newspaper:
    “Everyone needs to calm down.

    After all, Trump merely suggested we ingest or inject bleach or Lysol. It’s not like the time when Michelle Obama suggested we eat more vegetables.” 🙂🥦🌽

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  25th April 2020

      Was this really a good use of your mind, dups?

      Reply
      • duperez

         /  25th April 2020

        Sometimes dealing with the peripheral observations is a good break from reading about the more scientific aspects and wondering about them. Like the blood clotting story the other day. (I’d posted a link on one thread and you did the same on another).

        A further story is out today and I could spend time thinking about whether a decent swig of janola will sort out the particular issue. Or I could squander time pondering whether a Leader should be lambasted for his positivity in bringing a few alternatives to the table in a crisis compared to the relatively mild pasting Mrs Obama got for her diabolical alternative notions for a non-problem. 🙂

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  25th April 2020

          Can you give me a link to the pasting WaPo gave Michelle for that non-problem?

          Reply
          • duperez

             /  25th April 2020

            I haven’t checked that story in the WaPo. I’d be surprised if they gave her a pasting.
            Obviously it’s historic with angles from 2010 to 2020. Some of the great thinkers of the country like Limbaugh lent their wisdom. (obviously)

            There’s a health issue – Trump gives the remedy – people go crazy
            There’s a health issue – M Obama gives a remedy – mild rebuke

            I suppose the charge might be mounted that’s down to media bias. Or it could be that having kids eat broccoli is different than floating the ideas that Trump has.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  25th April 2020

              Remember the rebukes Obama used to get ….he wore a tan suit once.
              Even GW Bush used to be ..you know presidential

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  25th April 2020

              Oh, so Michelle didn’t get a pasting so the comparison was fake news?

            • duperez

               /  25th April 2020

              Eh? No, she got the relatively mild pasting I said she did.

            • Duker

               /  25th April 2020

              That my friend was what used to pass for amuse-bouche for the right wingers in the Obama White house
              Quelle Horreur ..a tan suit

  10. Tom Hunter

     /  25th April 2020

    No one, Trump included, knew what would actually happen

    With specific reference to those numbers and the argument Trump was making it should be noted that Dr Fauci had made the same argument in paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine on March 26.. Given that Fauci has been on Trump’s task force for this since it was formed in January it’s where Trump would have got the argument and numbers from and they were based as much on the history of such diseases as they were on data out of China and Italy.

    Besides, I’ve heard no supporter of lockdown using the argument that nobody “knew what would actually happen” in defending early claims like 80,000 dead in NZ. Apparently being completely wrong about data is acceptable in that direction when assessing trust and credibility for future advice.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  25th April 2020

      Its hard to quote ‘the highest possible number’ and say it was the only number provided to decision makers .
      The media have a habit of forgetting about the lowest numbers when they write their stories.
      There was another instance yesterday about the ‘spike in family violence’ after the lockdown started . But the Police also said the numbers then dropped back to normal. This part was completely forgotten in a recent ‘summary’ . The editors want them to write stories that ‘zing’ , which I think is journalese for lie

      Reply
  1. Trump was right about Covid, now, maybe — Your NZ – NZ Conservative Coalition

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