Daily Covid update – a bit of a case bounce

Despite being the weekend Covid cases have bounced back up a bit with 9 new cases (4 confirmed, 5 probable).

Four are linked to existing clusters and 5 linked to known cases so new sources.

Total cases now 1,479.

No new deaths, total remains at 18.

Still 7 in hospital, 1 in ICU in Middlemore.

24 more people have recovered, total recovered now 1,142 – this is 78% of all confirmed and probable cases.

Almost 6,000 tests which is just a little under the test rate of the previous few days.

As at 9.00 am, 26 April 2020
Total Change in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 1,121 4
Number of probable cases 349 5
Number of confirmed and probable cases 1,470 9
Number of cases currently in hospital 7 0
Number of recovered cases 1,142 24
Number of deaths 18 0

 

Total cases by age as at 9.00 am, 26 April 2020
Age Group Active Recovered Deceased Total
0 to 9 17 17 34
10 to 19 13 102 115
20 to 29 41 315 356
30 to 39 49 172 221
40 to 49 51 165 216
50 to 59 53 188 241
60 to 69 38 133 2 173
70+ 48 50 16 114
Total 310 1142 18 1470

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases

Director-General Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said in a statement although it’s encouraging to have another day of single digit cases, vigilance remains crucial.

“As we prepare to move to Alert Level 3 on Tuesday morning, it’s really important not to slacken off the effort.

“Even though all these new cases are linked to existing community-based cases or clusters, or are a result of overseas travel, nine cases highlights the need for everybody to maintain a high level of vigilance in Level 4 and as we move to Level 3.”

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/415153/covid-19-live-updates-from-new-zealand-and-around-the-world-on-26-april

Leave a comment

53 Comments

  1. Pink David

     /  26th April 2020

    “Still 7 in hospital, 1 in ICU in Middlemore.”

    Is the curve flattened enough now?

    Reply
  2. 200 jobs have been lost at Sky City; their financial loss has been eye-watering.

    Reply
    • Pink David

       /  26th April 2020

      I don’t see how they can keep going without tourism.

      Reply
    • Blazer

       /  26th April 2020

      How much is it?

      Reply
      • Pink David

         /  26th April 2020

        $90m/month.

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  26th April 2020

          so nearly a billion a year….absolute rubbish.

          Reply
          • No, because they won’t be closed for a year.

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  26th April 2020

              so you admit you make things up….hopeless.

            • I don’t admit to things that are untrue. You are far too fond of calling people liars and it’s very offensive.

              SkyCity said that the lockdown has cost them that; I take their word for it.

              I would be a fool to invent something that could be easily disproved, and I am not a liar. Please stop calling me one. It’s a lie and an insulting one.

            • Look up ‘SkyCity losses’. You may imagine that they are liars and so are the various news services who repeat the story, of course,as you appear to think that everyone is a liar.

            • Blazer

               /  26th April 2020

              you never provide any citations to back up your assertions…why..because they are not factual…same as your allegation against Ardern and 80,000 deaths.Pure fantasy=lies in my book.

            • Pink David

               /  26th April 2020

              Cool, from now any claim by Blazer must be referenced with a source. If there is no source he is lying.

            • Liars always think that everyone else is a liar, I suppose.

              It was said on the news enough times; I didn’t note the dates. It was on the television news and in the papers as well as Stuff. The 80,000 figure was quoted, as well as the idea that 89& of the population would catch the virus. She also said that the lockdown would save ‘tens of thousands of lives’. If you can’t remember what you see on the news, that is your problem, not mine.

              But don’t call me a liar because your memory is at fault.

            • Pink David

               /  26th April 2020

              Here is a link for you Blazer. You should know it took a single google search for it to be at the top of the page.

              https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12320221

              “Covid 19 coronavirus: 80,000 Kiwis could die from coronavirus if no lockdown: research”

              “Coronavirus could infect 89 per cent of the New Zealand population if left unchecked and up to 80,000 people could die, modelling from researchers at the University of Auckland suggests.

              The same modelling shows the lockdown measures now in place could buy the country more than a year for a vaccine or treatment to be developed.

              However, the research shows that without a vaccine or cure, cases of Covid-19 will still peak well beyond hospital capacity as soon as any lockdown ends.”

            • Well, he was lying when he said that I was a thief and he’s lying when he calls me a liar. He has said that I was a thief more than once and has often called me a liar; it’s tempting to ask for a MOD for his gratuitous insults. Quoting sources makes no difference; he won’t check them, I suspect, so that he can’t be proved wrong.

            • Blazer

               /  26th April 2020

              ‘It was said on the news enough times’….are you serious!
              Go back to primary school.

            • Blazer

               /  26th April 2020

              @PD…absolutely ,for everyone if you are claiming something as fact and not just offering…opinion.
              Kitty specialises in hearsay and relies on her memory….hopeless!

            • Blazer

               /  26th April 2020

              @PD that link DOES NOT validate this -‘One of the PM’s justifications for the lockdown was that without it we would have 80,000 deaths according to the modelling. 30,000 more than the US and 40% of the world’s total.’.

            • Blazer

               /  26th April 2020

              @Kitty…when you state you took a packet of eclairs home from Pak’n’Save without paying for them….the overwhelming majority would say that is theft.
              Crystal clear.
              As for lying its possible you sometimes do not mean to,and perhaps your memory is faulty and can be used as an excuse.

            • I do not; I gave you sources and you don’t want to look them up because you will be proved wrong. It’s odd that Pink found the same thing online as I did when he looked up the 80,000 deaths. Or do you think that Google, the Herald, Newshub and 1 News are all liars or relying on hearsay too ? The model was the Auckland University one, quoted by the PM and others as if the conjecture was factual. As the virus has been all that’s been on the news for weeks, it’s not surprising that someone can’t remember an exact date; it was about the time of the lockdown.

              Hearing someone saying something on camera is not the same as hearsay except in your mind.

              Is Hopeless your real name ? You sign yourself as that often enough.

            • A reduced to clear pair of eclairs that someone had bought and left behind (who’d bother to return for a $1 item ?) would not have been sold again, they’d have gone into the bin as they were perishable. There is no way that the shop would have put them back and resold them; be your age. If it had been me, I’d be glad to think that someone had made use of them.

              They had already BEEN paid for; that’s why they were on the packing bench outside the actual shop. It wasn’t shoplifting as you wrongly said. Would you drive back for something like that and expect it to still be there and not in the shop dustbin ?

              I once left a pizza behind and hoped that someone found it as the shop would have binned it as a matter of course. If they’d resold it, they could be in trouble with the Health Inspector or whoever it is; hardly worth it for such a small amount.

            • Pink David

               /  26th April 2020

              “@PD that link DOES NOT validate this ”

              You are just being a dick now.

            • Duker

               /  26th April 2020

              The original research referred to by NZ Herlad doesn’t mention the number 80,000.
              https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/03/26/suppression-and-mitigation-strategies-for-control-of-covid-19-in-new-zealand/
              They have a range of options and outcomes And that is the primary purpose of the reserach to compare the results of different strategies.
              The Herald seems to have picked the worst of the worst numbers

            • Pink David

               /  26th April 2020

              “The original research referred to by NZ Herlad doesn’t mention the number 80,000.”

              No control. 89% of pop infected. 1.67% fatality rate.

              Population 4.886m

              = 72,620 deaths.

              They might have used the 1.92% rate in the paper, which would have got them 83,492, to the nearest person. I assume part people don’t count.

              So, they are correct, from the model 80,000 ‘could’ die.

              That model is of course bollocks, but they are not wrong reporting on what it has said.

            • “That model is of course bollocks”

              How do you know that based on the available information at the time it was bollocks?

              They won’t know the actual fatality rate for possibly a year or two.

            • Pink David

               /  27th April 2020

              “How do you know that based on the available information at the time it was bollocks?”

              Very simple.

              “They won’t know the actual fatality rate for possibly a year or two.”

              You answered your own question.

              I will keep saying this, computer models have no predictive utility. This has been proven time and again. Using them in this way is nothing less that a fraud. Input garbage, and garbage will come out. Input garbage into a model with exponential functions and the garbage will be exponential.

              We can test this very simply. Use the same model to plot Sweden and Australia using the same inputs and compare to the real world data. That would immediately show just how far out of line it is.

              The fact they have not done this is criminal.

  3. I see that the Government has admitted that the lockdown breaches civil rights !

    Reply
  4. lurcher1948

     /  26th April 2020

    This tweet from an Englishman says it all. Possible deaths under National could have been eyewatering, all in the name of money and small business.

    RD Hale🌹Open Selection NOW!
    @SkyeCity_
    ·
    13h
    The UK has seen 42000 Covid-19 deaths because we have Boris Johnson using a right wing, listen to capitalism approach to tackling the pandemic.

    New Zealand has seen 18 deaths because they have Jacinda Ardern using a left wing, listen to science approach to tackling the pandemic.

    Reply
    • Pink David

       /  26th April 2020

      Why are you spreading fake news?

      Reply
      • lurcher1948

         /  26th April 2020

        PROVE IT PINK David come on prove that the tweet is fake news,THERES their deaths,then theres our deaths,STFA, like a good rightwing voter badmouthing Jacindas efforts. squirrel squirrel

        Reply
        • Pink David

           /  26th April 2020

          “PROVE IT PINK David come on prove that the tweet is fake news,THERES their deaths,then theres our deaths,STFA, like a good rightwing voter badmouthing Jacindas efforts. squirrel squirrel”

          Is my PROOF enough for YOU. Should I link ONS to SHOW how WRONG you are, and what a BULLSHIT MERCHANT Lurcher1948 is?

          Reply
        • Prove that National would have caused more deaths, Lurch, by testing everyone coming in as they wanted to do. thus isolating those who had the virus rather than handing them a piece of paper.

          Reply
      • Blazer

         /  26th April 2020

        do stop being a…dick!

        Reply
    • Pink David

       /  26th April 2020

      3 down votes? Curious.

      UK lockdown started March 23
      NZ lockdown started March 25

      UK Deaths with Covid 19 are currently 20,319

      Please show the science that Jacinda used to start the lockdown.

      Please show how the different approaches can be considered to be ‘left or right wing’

      Reply
      • Jacinda said that there could be tens of thousands of deaths; as many as 80,000. This was a ridiculous number, given our population. How we could have four times as many as the UK and (30,000?) more than the US is a mystery.

        Reply
          • Griff.

             /  26th April 2020

            Oh dear the imperial collage Paper.
            The one that used only 7 deaths off the ship ?
            Its now 14 deaths from the diamond princess doubling their death rate and some cases from the ship are still in intensive care .
            Why is it not surprising that Pink Dave looks to proven rubbish in comic form to support his delusions…..

            Reply
            • Pink David

               /  26th April 2020

              “Its now 14 deaths from the diamond princess doubling their death rate and some cases from the ship are still in intensive care .”

              The wonderful thing about the Diamound Princess is that we have two other populations we can use as baselines.

              Charles de Gaulle
              Theodore Roosevelt

              “Why is it not surprising that Pink Dave looks to proven rubbish in comic form to support his delusions”

              It’s your children who will be paying for this delusion for their entire lifetimes.

        • oldlaker

           /  26th April 2020

          Indeed, Kitty. Extrapolated to the US, 80,000 deaths in NZ would have meant 5.28 million dying there. As soon as I read that figure, I thought it was nonsense.

          Reply
          • Pink David

             /  26th April 2020

            I would be interesting to run the model for Sweden. They have very little control, so how are Sweden performing against there benchmark?

            Reply
          • Duker

             /  27th April 2020

            The researchers never said 80,000 deaths . The Herald said that.
            I looked up the research and they had a range of % all dependent on other variables and the ‘worst results’ were after 400 days ie 1.5 years
            The Herald cherry picked the highest case mortality rate , the worst effect on the hospital system and only level 2 restrictions and numbers after 400 days.

            We arent even at 40 days , we went to level 4. The hospitals arent overwhelmed Thats should be the conditions that are compared with the ‘predictions’

            Reply
  5. Alan Wilkinson

     /  26th April 2020

    I painstakingly went through the Health Dept press releases pulling out the daily counts of hospital/death/recoveries and putting them into a spreadsheet the Dept doesn’t seem to publish. Then I ran searches to match the model results to this data varying the parameters that weren’t set by the case matching searches. These are pretty independent sets since the hospitalisation parameters don’t affect the case model. The parameters resulting from this second fit are shown here:

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  27th April 2020

      Shows our current fatality rate is 0.023 x 0.62 = 1.4%. Obviously that is now being skewed up by the rest home clusters but earlier down by the international arrivals.

      Reply
  6. lurcher1948

     /  26th April 2020

    PROVE IT PINK David come on prove that the tweet is fake news,THERES their deaths,then theres our deaths,STFA, like a good rightwing voter badmouthing Jacindas efforts. squirrel squirrel

    Reply
    • Their situation is quite different. Their population density is much greater than ours, for one thing, and it was their winter when people are not out and about. When I arrived in England, the daytime temp was -11. No one spends any more time out in that than they have to. The Tube is standing room only with everyone squashed together, hardly able to move. Our cases began with people coming back from overseas and most were the age which is most likely to recover.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  27th April 2020

        Guess what …Britains cases began with people coming from China and then from northern Italy…. its not called a human transmitted virus for nothing , the early cases in every country outside China a would have arrived by ……plane

        Reply

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