The total recorded number of deaths from Covid-19 have now gone past the two hundred thousand mark (currentl.
About a quarter of these (currently 53,851) are in the US.
Deaths in the UK have now gone past twenty thousand (currently 20,319).
Belgium still tops the deaths per million statistic at 597 (next is Spain at 490) but that may be more to do with more comprehensive counting than a higher death rate.
While the daily increase in number of cases seems to have leveled off at about 80-90,000 that’s still a big increase per day.
And case numbers have been increasing at 80-90,000 per day for some time as well. So the problem doesn’t seem to be escalating, but it is still increasing at worrying amounts.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
And it is widely reported that case numbers and death numbers are likely to be under-reported.
Global deaths linked to the coronavirus passed 200,000 on Saturday, while confirmed cases of the virus are expected to hit 3 million in coming days, according to a Reuters tally.
The first death linked to the disease was reported on Jan. 10 in Wuhan, China. It took 91 days for the death toll to pass 100,000 and a further 16 days to reach 200,000, according to the Reuters tally of official reports from governments.
By comparison, there are an estimated 400,000 deaths annually from malaria, one of the world’s most deadly infectious diseases.
New York will on Saturday begin conducting antibody tests for workers at four hospitals hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic and will allow local pharmacies to begin collecting samples for diagnostic tests, Governor Andrew Cuomo said.
The renewed focus on testing comes as the crisis appears to be subsiding in New York, with hospitalizations for COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, falling to their lowest in three weeks, Cuomo told a daily briefing on Saturday.
As mass coronavirus testing expands in prisons, large numbers of inmates are showing no symptoms. In four state prison systems — Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — 96% of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic, according to interviews with officials and records reviewed by Reuters. That’s out of 4,693 tests that included results on symptoms.
The numbers are the latest evidence to suggest that people who are asymptomatic — contagious but not physically sick — may be driving the spread of the virus, not only in state prisons that house 1.3 million inmates across the country, but also in communities across the globe. The figures also reinforce questions over whether testing of just people suspected of being infected is actually capturing the spread of the virus.
Good New Zealand charts from Newsroom:
Kitty Catkin
/ 26th April 2020One of the PM’s justifications for the lockdown was that without it we would have 80,000 deaths according to the modelling. 30,000 more than the US and 40% of the world’s total.
Pink David
/ 26th April 2020The main justification was not to overwhelm the health service, hence the ‘flatten the curve’.
The strangest thing is that Sweden has not locked-down and it’s health services are not overwhelmed at all.
The NHS in the UK is at record highs for spare capacity, so much so, it’s clear people are dying from other illnesses without getting attention.
Why did the goal posts move?
Kitty Catkin
/ 26th April 2020Because they could, I suppose
I am no mathematician, but even I could see that for us to have 80,000 deaths every man, woman and child would have to have the virus (and probably more people than we have living here would have to have it) This seemed highly unlikely to happen.
I wonder if people are dying here because the 15 (maximum) people who were in hospital meant that they couldn’t have treatment. I haven’t heard of it happening; I hope it hasn’t. The PM will be answerable if they have.
duperez
/ 26th April 2020Do you think it’s reasonable to use worst case scenarios as a reasonable place to start?
Did New Zealand officials and politicians act on the ‘worst case scenario’ or something less?
Blazer
/ 26th April 2020citation please.
Blazer
/ 26th April 2020where is your link to this outrageous allegation?
Pink David
/ 26th April 2020It is very easy to find.
https://www.health.govt.nz/publication/covid-19-modelling-and-other-commissioned-reports
Blazer
/ 26th April 2020couldn’t find this…’One of the PM’s justifications for the lockdown was that without it we would have 80,000 deaths according to the modelling. 30,000 more than the US and 40% of the world’s total.’
can you…seeing as you’re answering for misery today.
Pete George
/ 26th April 2020WHO says no evidence shows that having coronavirus prevents a second infection
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/25/us/who-immunity-antibodies-covid-19/index.html
“Immunity passports” in the context of COVID-19
https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19
Pink David
/ 26th April 2020“WHO says no evidence shows that having coronavirus prevents a second infection”
Makes looking for a vaccine pointless then doesn’t it.
Kitty Catkin
/ 26th April 2020Well, no, with any luck the vaccine will stop it happening. Most of them do.
Duker
/ 26th April 2020Seems to be just a phrasing of words , countries were looking for ‘presence of antibodies’ from a test to get ‘immunity cards’ which would allow them to avoid restrictions. Its the problem with anti body tests thats the issue
Im pretty sure if you were diagnosed with Covid 19 disease you wont catch it again as the virus itself is fairly stable
I once had 3 colds in row over about 2 months , but it was slightly different symptoms each time and viruses which cause colds are different to each other, some being coronaviruses too.
My pneumonia vaccine is supposed to protect from 13 different pneumonia bacteria
David
/ 26th April 2020They dont know either way, they are right to warn because no one knows if you shed the thing totally or its like herpes virus and pops back up again.
Pete George
/ 26th April 2020Alan Wilkinson
/ 26th April 2020I just ran an extended parameter search which took 24 hours to complete on my laptop and produced this fit (weird data prior to 16 March not fitted). It’s looking pretty good to eliminate the bug.
Duker
/ 26th April 2020No ones asking about those handful of new cases each day… are they no connection to existing infected people … are they getting it from existing known infections by being in their bubble or is there bubble breaking going on.
No information…why isnt Souixie Wiles asking there questions, it would be laughable that any journo understands any science at all.
I read an article in NY Times the other day and the journo had a PhD in Astrophysics from Princeton and its was only vaguely connected to science.
Conspiratoor
/ 26th April 2020Enjoying your attempts to model this thing Al. Certainly puts my feeble effort to shame
Alan Wilkinson
/ 26th April 2020Kind of overlaps with my professional career, C. So I do have a head start.
Latest here: https://yournz.org/2020/04/26/daily-covid-update-a-bit-of-a-case-bounce/#comment-412156
Pink David
/ 26th April 2020This is rather interesting, using UV for virus protection. I’m going to get people looking into this on Tuesday as it will be an attractive option for managing workplaces, esp the settings I typically deal with.
https://news.columbia.edu/ultraviolet-technology-virus-covid-19-UV-light?fbclid=IwAR3vbrb0l0B1GxytLVbw-13psjd1Df1H6E6nUquiHAUWQk8GCbks_2KVMOo
Duker
/ 26th April 2020Isnt there existing use of UV hand held devices for some cleaning areas. As you know fixed UV is used for all sorts of bacteria/virus control in waste water treatment but that might be at higher intensity ?
Alan Wilkinson
/ 26th April 2020Sunshine is good. UV can damage eyes so caution. Glass blocks it.
Pink David
/ 26th April 2020It’s the ‘far-UVC light’ that seems to be the interesting one. Standard UV has been used for many years, but it is a hazard. If you can light working areas with it and not harm people, that is very interesting. Actually its very very interesting.
There are a ton of applications.
Alan Wilkinson
/ 26th April 2020Concern that lockdowns will slow results from vaccine effectiveness trials. If only a tiny fraction of the population are being exposed to the infection it would take a huge vaccination trial to get results.