A hard to ignore leaked poll: Labour 55%, National 29%

The bottom line for a UMR poll (warning – leaked private poll) conducted between 21-27 April as we approached the end of the Level 4 lockdown:

  • Labour 55%
  • National 29%
  • NZ First 6%
  • Greens 5%
  • ACT 3%

(But RNZ have NZF and Greens swapped: “It has polled the Green Party at 6%, New Zealand First on 5%”)

With NZ First and Greens on similar levels to other recent polls this suggests a big chunk of ex-national supporters have swung to Labour, but at the same time ACT has improved.

This looks grim for National, and it’s no wonder the talk of Simon Bridges and leadership has ramped up lately.

There’s a lot that can happen before the election with Covid and the economy, but it’s a big challenge for National to turn this around without changing their approach or their leader.

Also Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 65%
  • Simon Bridges 7%
  • Judith Collins 7%
  • Winston Peters 3%

If a Labour activist could make up a poll result that was sort of credible but great for Labour and terrible for National it would look something like this, but all they have had to do is leak their actual poll. There have been similar numbers mentioned over the past couple of weeks.

NZ Herald: A leaked poll shows National has dropped below 30 per cent, and Labour at 55 per cent

But speaking to the Herald, Bridges rubbished the poll.

“UMR are Labour’s pollsters and are consistently, badly wrong.”

He added that Labour “should be focused on getting New Zealand back to work, not leaking dodgy numbers”.

But this is a big pig of a revelation for National, and Bridges is rough at applying lipstick.

Polling under 30 per cent is a huge psychological barrier for National and means many of their current list MPs would lose their jobs at this year’s election.

It wasn’t long ago that 40% would have been seen as pretty bad for National.

And perhaps more good news for the Government – the poll shows that 78 per cent of New Zealanders believe the country is heading in the right direction.

The number of people saying New Zealand is on the right track hasn’t been this high on a UMR poll since 1991.

“This can again only be attributed to a rallying around in a national crisis and a related current confidence in the government steps taken to combat Covid-19,” UMR said in its commentary.”

Again, things could change, but I expect this poll will be in a post at The Standard very quickly and not so fast at Kiwiblog.

NOTE:

  1. As far as it’s possible to determine I think that Labour’s internal polls conducted by UMR have tended to favour Labour.
  2. Leaked polls should always be viewed with some suspicion but more details seem to have been made available this time to media.
  3. At a time of crisis with a Government generally seen to be managing things well it is going to benefit, and the Opposition is likely to not benefit

UPDATE: The Standard posted on this an hour and a half ago – UMR’s bombshell poll result

By my count National have 39 electorate MPs and 18 list MPs. If they got 29% in the election they would not get enough MPs to get any list MPs, there would be an overhang of a few MPs.

I can imagine a few list MPs will be getting a bit nervous about their futures – like Paul Goldsmith, Michael Woodhouse, Alfred Ngaro, Melissa Lee, Juan Yang, Brett Hudson, Nicola Willis etc

Leave a comment

71 Comments

  1. Duker

     /  1st May 2020

    Its NOT in an internal poll..it says so in the story
    “It is understood the poll, obtained by the Herald, was conducted by Labour’s polling company UMR for its corporate clients
    Nationals pollsters Curia doe EXCLUSIVE polling for Nats and dont share with any one else. So any inside info would be leaked , but very few MPs even get the raw numbers , maybe just an ‘up or down’ summary.

    UMR doesnt have an exclusive with Labour, some polls UMR do may not have Labour as part of distribution at all because of the cost.
    Corporate clients have always been part of UMR results , thats clearly where the media get them from.

    Reply
    • “thats clearly where the media get them from.”

      Do you have evidence of that or are you making it up?

      I’ve changed the description to ‘leaked private poll’.

      How do you know NZH aren’t a corporate client and get the results directly from UMR?

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  1st May 2020

        Where is your evidence it was ‘internal to the labour Party’- did you make it up

        I dont gives links when you have given them in your lead… 4th paragraph down
        It is understood the poll, obtained by the Herald, was conducted by Labour’s polling company UMR for its corporate clients, who paid UMR for a monthly snapshot of the political scene.

        Historically that how UMR polls FOR CORPORATE CLIENTS have been released andits been said so
        back in 2017
        “Tonight the Labour Party and UMR said the results had not yet been released to the Labour Party and the leak must have come from a corporate client who had already been provided the results.”
        https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/07/labour-s-confidential-polling-leaked.html

        The situation is clear to anyone whos been following polling and leaks for many years .
        UMR polls arent exclusive and have distribution amoung corporates as well as labour.

        Reply
        • But the UMR corporate client polls are for “a monthly snapshot of the political scene”. I’ve seen a number of suggested poll results over the past few weeks.

          Reply
        • David

           /  1st May 2020

          You will believe anything Duker.
          UMR are partly self selecting and the poll had a couple of insurance questions in there but was predominately questions about the Reserve Bank so the likely client is Grant Robertson’s Treasury department with a small donation from a Labour supporter to give the fig leaf of cover against the ugly PR that Labour were polling to give them a flattering number they can spread around.
          Its not the first time they have leaked a UMR poll which was wildly different from every other pollster.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  1st May 2020

            Corporates have getting UMRs non exclusive polls for years, the top level like Fonterra , Air NZ and so on.
            Even this story says results went to Corporates
            The leak stories over the years have mostly given the Corporates distribution angle because its true.
            Whats Treasury got to with , they can read the newspapers like any one else.

            Doesnt matter in the scheme of things who its done for , its a shit poll for national, as though any one expected different. Why would Bridges be hiding his own polls from caucus…I dont think they even know when they have been done
            Look at all the other polls I mentioned on ‘mood of the nation’ , it was very strong government support.

            Reply
          • Duker

             /  1st May 2020

            ” tweet from Matthew Hooton : “I understand that @NZNationalParty’s private polling has not been shared with even its top four MPs since February, let alone the whole front bench or caucus.”
            McClay is the polling point man .. seems Bridges is hoping no one will notice.

            Reply
  2. Corky

     /  1st May 2020

    I wouldn’t expect otherwise. A pandemic on top of being in opposition is a hard ask. My only concern is the polls may change with National gaining traction. National need to chill out; losing this election is the best thing that could ever happen to them.but not so good for our country. Given the economic hits and direction Labour has given us, I don’t think anything
    political matters that much. Maybe a budget special could be of some note. Should we all get free money, Simon will become history rather fast.

    Reply
    • Pink David

       /  1st May 2020

      “National need to chill out; losing this election is the best thing that could ever happen to them.but not so good for our country.”

      Yeap, I don’t envy anyone having to sort out the mess that is coming. Jacinda can have it.

      Reply
      • duperez

         /  1st May 2020

        With that outlook any chance they’ll seek your help with fashioning their election slogans?

        “We’re not up to it.”

        “Difficult economic challenges are beyond us.”

        “We do not have the answers.”

        “When the going gets tough …”

        I’d suggest not forwarding “Get some guts!”

        Reply
        • Pink David

           /  1st May 2020

          I prefer, “You broke it, you fix it”

          Reply
          • Blazer

             /  1st May 2020

            as opposed to the usual National default- we left a mess for someone else to clean up.

            Reply
        • Corky

           /  1st May 2020

          You obviously have never been in a street fight…or gone to war, have you, Duperez?What we are talking about is political strategy – that is, National taking a punch to their ego and aspirations in return for a long tenure in government after Labour has done the donkey work; fugged the country and then disintegrated. Seems to me waiting another three years isn’t a big ask. To be fair, I don’t have a politicians mentality. So maybe being in government at all costs is what drives them.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  1st May 2020

            Maybe the voters will remember Novapay which Joyce made go away by giving MORE money to the private tech company and eventually ‘buying the business’
            Theres the whole re- building debacle over the Christchurch Earthquakes, the payout to South Canterbury Finance after Bill kept signing the guarantee , the $950 mill ‘investment’ in Chorus … the backroom deal for Convention Centre where Sky won by skipping the formal process.( watch out for the taxpayer paying running costs)

            Reply
          • duperez

             /  1st May 2020

            I know, you have to pick your moments and pick your fights.

            Maybe they should save themselves the anguish and money and just sit on the sidelines. Anguish and money of their supporters I mean.

            Labour should have done the same a bit back saying, “You’ve done the donkey work, fugged the country. Fix it.” While relishing them chucking the towel in you would have said that the country wasn’t fugged and any aspects that existed had nothing to do with them. Extenuating circumstances if you like.

            Anyway if you’re prepared to wait 3+ years to do something about the country being stuffed the situation can’t be that dire. It can’t be a matter of life or death. Imagine what you’d be saying if the current lot had said the virus was going to be a real doozy of a problem and they’d leave it for a couple of years and let the next government deal with it.

            Reply
    • Duker

       /  1st May 2020

      Arent you getting free money as a pensioner or are you like Wilco , you had to apply for your free money. The neighbours lawnmower guy was back and he got some too

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  1st May 2020

        I don’t receive the Super. I have applied for no financial assistance. I wish I qualified for both.
        Still, I’m sure Lotto will spark up again soon

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  1st May 2020

          LIke the self employed lawnmower guy , income down …isnt that all you need to say. After all the gambling is legal ..its not like you are an SP bookmaker on on the sly…or maybe.. better not say more.

          Reply
          • Corky

             /  1st May 2020

            Can you translate that? Be not afraid to say more. That way I may be able to form a reply.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  1st May 2020

              You are a self employed gambler and your income is down… bingo..it may be a teensy weensy problem of proof of income …
              At least your income isnt taxable…not like the squealers here who are in anguish at the governments tax rebate/carry back thingy..as they dont qualify as they have made a point of avoiding structuring their income so they pay hardly any tax..they want helicopter money

            • Tax avoidance is legal.

              It’s tax evasion that isn’t.

              If Corky really is a professional Lotto player, as soon as his winnings start to earn interest he is liable for tax.

            • Duker

               /  1st May 2020

              I have no idea of his winnings or his methods but Id think they dont go anywhere near a bank account. The self employed payment is different to the business tax carry forward thingy

            • Duker

               /  1st May 2020

              Lots of avoidance isnt legal either , neither is agressive tax planning and even if done through professionals the IRD will come after you
              Like these
              Income shifting or sheltering
              Income deferral
              Accelerating the use of losses or credits
              Creating or inflating expenses
              Changing the character of receipts or outlays
              GST-specific avoidance
              Misuse of charities
              https://www.lawsociety.org.nz/practice-resources/commentary/law-reform-background/tax-schemes-and-aggressive-tax-planning

            • Griff.

               /  1st May 2020

              A professional lotto player is an oxymoron.
              The house always wins .
              Its just another of corkys fantasists gibberish bullshites.

            • Duker

               /  1st May 2020

              Thats why I was suggesting it was …. euphemism

            • Corky

               /  1st May 2020

              I not a gambler or professional Lotto player. Gamblers rely on luck. Like Griff..who probably spends about $10 a week…and loses, loses and loses. 😂

              I wouldn’t know about Duker. And of course Kitty is too miserable to buy a Lotto ticket.

    • lurcher1948

       /  1st May 2020

      Darn Corky poor old mikey will be upset at his good friend Simon Bridges, and I’m sure i heard a rumour about the high and mighty and job and salary security,NZME is looking at its costs

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  1st May 2020

        I think Mikey is more like on a profit share on his show… revenue has plunged full away .
        His charming wife might find her early morning show is axed though ..but Mikey may be pulling rank and wanting Lizzie gone first . Paul Little is out already

        Reply
      • Corky

         /  2nd May 2020

        If Mikey gets the chop, I’m sure he’ll survive. In fact he’ll still be able to buy you a
        new scooter for each day of the year from his pocket money..or should I say ‘pocket cards.’

        You, my friend, have more pressing concerns – like maintaining your supply chain for crackers and chutney.😃

        Reply
  3. Blazer

     /  1st May 2020

    after the Govt wage subsidy finishes in June,reality regarding unemployment will strike.
    Expect a dramatic change in polls leading up to the election.
    Results like this explain John Key popping up so often lately.

    Reply
    • I think we have no idea what to expect, this is an unprecedented situation with major unknowns, so it’s impossible to predict how things will go over the next four and a half months.

      Reply
      • Pink David

         /  1st May 2020

        “I think we have no idea what to expect, this is an unprecedented situation with major unknowns, so it’s impossible to predict how things will go over the next four and a half months.”

        We have good grounds to know what will happen with the economy and employment. Those were known known’s from the beginning. Anyone claiming anything else is trying to avoid accountability.

        The lockdown was enacted on the believe they had a computer model that predicted what was going to happen. They can use a computer model to predict the economy with equal success.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  1st May 2020

          Have you seen the models they use for weather forecasts… and they have far more data. I have heard they are completely out of date the very next day….. and 3 days ahead is partly speculation, usually improved by the weather being often the same 2 days in row.

          You will never get a full motion simulator for completely new unknown virus …thats why they become pandemics.

          Reply
          • Pink David

             /  1st May 2020

            “You will never get a full motion simulator for completely new unknown virus …thats why they become pandemics.”

            They become pandemics because there is very little we can do to prevent them becoming pandemics.

            A computer model is the core data used to justify this lockdown. If fact its the only justification.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  1st May 2020

              Sweden deaths so far 2500….. did we even get to 25 ? hmmm I wonder why that is.
              Lockdowns have worked in pandemics through out NZ history…but your general ignorance of most things means you dont know that
              Ive mentioned a few times quarantine comes from the italian/Ventian for 40 days. why is that

            • Duker

               /  1st May 2020

              Interesting comment today by Peeni Henare about previous NZ lockdowns

              ‘Henare said the 1918 influenza pandemic rolled through his whānau’s community “like wildfire” after a tangi went ahead against the guidelines, leading to his grandmother’s death. ‘

            • Pink David

               /  1st May 2020

              “Sweden deaths so far 2500….. did we even get to 25 ? hmmm I wonder why that is.”

              Time will tell now won’t it? I’m interested to see you use Sweden as your pick, and not Belgium or Australia.

              What motivated you to do that I wonder.

              “Lockdowns have worked in pandemics through out NZ history…but your general ignorance of most things means you dont know that”

              I’ve asked you repeatedly, show where a historical example of people being locked down. Measures being put in place are not the same as requiring all NZ’ers to stay in their homes for 4 weeks, that has never been done before.

        • Blazer

           /  1st May 2020

          I have to agree with this-‘We have good grounds to know what will happen with the economy and employment. ‘

          With or without C19 recession loomed.

          Reply
  4. NOEL

     /  1st May 2020

    What’s that saying that comes out every election year.
    Something about “the only poll that matters is the one on the day”?

    Reply
    • That’s the only poll that matters regarding to outcome of the election – but given the amount of attention given to other polls, and reaction to them, I think they matter quite a bit to some parties and some politicians.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  1st May 2020

        Bridges found out just as Trump is when a country unifies , divisiveness falls flat.

        Bridges cant have been listening to his own ‘internal’ polls and others done on the nations mood and attitude to the lockdowns …its no mystery that something like 90% ‘back’ the government. The challenge is to be part of that ..he was at the start of the lockdown

        Bridges isnt really a conviction politician hes a party machine person who relishes conflict …why else would he attract like minds like JLR to be his closest aides and thats why I think heel stay till the election come what may.

        Reply
  5. duperez

     /  1st May 2020

    Naturally the poll won’t quickly be a post on Kiwiblog. If it does appear what chance it’ll be as some side wash while waves of attacks or insinuations pound down about Peters, Jones or NZ First. And torrents about how we are doomed forever economically by the way Covid-19 has been handled,

    Reply
  6. Zedd

     /  1st May 2020

    oh dear… bye bye Simon

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  1st May 2020

      I dont think so … Bridges and Bennett will destroy any MP who puts their head above the parapet. The Amy Adams clique who lost the 2018 leadership are on their way out and in no condition to mount a putsch. Collins may be happy to wait for an election to gift the leadership or someone else to be the stalking horse and those hard conservatives may prefer to wait for Luxon.
      I think Simon is right about his job security

      Reply
      • Zedd

         /  1st May 2020

        I hear that there is another Natl MP.. waiting in the wings who is rarely mentioned; a bit like Jacinda, takig over after a few others fell down

        clue: N K 🙂

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  1st May 2020

          Too silly for words … she could be in labour shes so liberal..and there is another issue ..is national ready for a ‘single woman who does coast to coasts’ as leader

          Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  1st May 2020

      Nats are very efficient at changing the leadership when they want to. At the moment I’m guessing no-one wants it. Plus Jacinda and Grant have an unlimited purse to throw at the election this year. The bills will come in after that and who really wants to be responsible for paying them? Probably none of the people now voting Labour.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  1st May 2020

        The last lot after 9 years of neglect left borrowing of $80 bill as the result of a rockstar economy….. who was responsible for paying that? I suppose we could have tapped the ‘English fund’….. a piece of paper saying compassionate conservative. and an IOU for yearly house rent

        The US budget deficit will be something like $3 trillion…3x the amount last year under Trumps Rockstar economy, was something like $450 bill at end of Obama era

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  1st May 2020

          After the Chch quake and GFC left NZ in one of the best financial positions in the OECD.

          Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  1st May 2020

          After the Chch quake and GFC left NZ with one of the lowest debts in the OECD so suck that up, Ducker.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  1st May 2020

            Oops, somehow hit two posts there.

            Reply
            • Conspiratoor

               /  1st May 2020

              We can tell when you’re getting excited Al, that post button gets a beating. Your hero john presided over a surge in government debt from $10b to $80b. I think you might have to just suck that up

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  1st May 2020

              He did, but that is still very modest relative to almost every other OECD country and he had the earthquake on top of the GFC. I’m more than happy to suck on that. Jacinda can suck on a $100B+ self-inflicted disaster.

          • Duker

             /  1st May 2020

            No it didnt . You are talking about “nett borrowing ratio’
            Actual borrowing which interest is paid is massive over $80 bill
            Nett borrowing sounds good because the Cullen Fund ( remember him) grew from Around $8 bill when labour left office to $40 + bill and the same for the ACC future costs fund Its something over $30 bill as well all from the rising tide of global sharemarkets.
            In 2008 nett borrowing was zero .
            But of course you dont understand finance or the difference between net and gross or why a surplus still means $6 bill borrowing by Bill.

            Have you seen a Seagulls Nest , why would you call a cosy rental after a pile of sticks

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  1st May 2020

              Good to see you still wrong about everything, Duker. Keep it up.

            • Duker

               /  1st May 2020

              What is NZ gross borrowing at 2018 then.
              A slip up , it’s Gulls View not nest

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  1st May 2020

              Ha ha!

  7. By my count National have 39 electorate MPs and 18 list MPs. If they got 29% in the election they would not get enough MPs to get any list MPs, there would be an overhang of a few MPs.

    I can imagine a few list MPs will be getting a bit nervous about their futures – like Paul Goldsmith, Michael Woodhouse, Alfred Ngaro, Melissa Lee, Juan Yang, Brett Hudson, Nicola Willis etc

    Reply
    • Conspiratoor

       /  1st May 2020

      What an appalling list of neville nobodies

      And Jian Yang. Seriously, who cares….

      Reply
  8. Conspiratoor

     /  1st May 2020

    It’s not an unknown phenomenon. Key’s popularity soared in the two years following the GFC and the big quake. UMR had him over 80% if I recall. A few years later the rump of his former fan club had deserted him leaving a few die hard supporters who still believed he could do no wrong

    John would be telling Jacinda, “bask in the adulation while it lasts because believe me it won’t last”

    Reply
  9. duperez

     /  1st May 2020

    Remember way back in history, nearly three weeks ago, when Matthew Hooton put out his magic numbers? 5 9 49 31 6

    Today’s lotto numbers are: 55 29 6 5 3

    Reply
    • That was Curia 14 April. Quite consistent also with previous UMR polls. I’ll put more detail in a post tomorrow. Today’s poll doesn’t look like an outlier.

      Reply
  10. Griff.

     /  1st May 2020

    NZ first ,greens and act are all too small to make anything of polls the margin of error is such they could swap places in the next pol and it will still be meaningless.
    National and labor are polling far larger numbers so a more reliable result
    Most of the country supports the process we have undertaken despite the
    right wing bullshite on here.
    Polling suggests Labor should do well next election
    We usually bench mark economic performance off au.
    Their outlook is probably worse than ours.
    Every one still has to eat our primary produce the world is not burning as much au coal or smelting as much iron. Tourism is fucked anyway in both country’s lockdown or not .

    Reply
  11. oldlaker

     /  1st May 2020

    I suspect Ardern has already lost control… More than a hundred at a tangi; crowds at fast food outlets; cars banked up at west coast beaches…
    She thought it was a good idea to announce a few days ago we had “eliminated” coronavirus and that “There is no widespread, undetected community transmission in New Zealand. We have won that battle.”
    Well, hello! She gained herself some fawning international headlines but now most people think the danger has passed. So it’s party time!
    She is not going to be able to put that genie back in the bottle… Her reign of terror is over.
    Now the focus will be on the economy. Bridges may have time to shine yet.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  2nd May 2020

      Yeah right ….. the polls show National tanking .
      Remember Christchurch Earthquakes , the government at the time gained in Christchurch from the opposition. Its just the way these things run and will happen in this years election too.
      National should just think of it as ‘just another deadwood pruning’ operation that they are always rabbiting on about…just this time with an arborist doing the pruning rather than a few snips here and there at the rose bushes.

      Reply
    • duperez

       /  2nd May 2020

      Shall we give credit where credit’s due – to the people for taking control.

      Think of the international headlines Ardern could have gained if she had the guts to take on the persona she’s credited with having here. A real communist dictator would have had the army at the tangi North of Kaiapoi, armed forces would have rolled their military vehicles to the take-away queues for mass take-aways. Troops would’ve been helicoptered into west coast beaches. We could have had a proper ‘rein of terror.’

      Bridges won’t make the mistake of appealing to the people and whatever qualities they have to see the point expecting everyone to get on the same page. His back up act after the election with a handful of needed MPs won’t either, not because Act won’t try appealing to the people, but because they’ll accept that people will make up their own minds and should be free to do so.

      The game plan was decided on by the designated team leadership, the strategies chosen. Some don’t want to play like that though. They think the win will come with everyone doing their own thing. The logical solution? Sack the captain, the coach and the tacticians.

      Reign of terror? That’s absurd drama queen material

      Reply

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