Interesting poll but it’s not an election

Newshub/Reid Research poll:

  • Labour 56.5%
  • National 30.6%
  • Greens 5.5%
  • NZ First 2.7%
  • ACT 1.8%
  • Maori Party 0.9%
  • Conservatives 1.0%

Movement from the last Reid Research poll (23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020) is pretty much meaningless due to the changed  circumstances and extraordinary time situation.

This result isn’t really much of a surprise, there have been ‘internal’ polls with similar results recently – a UMR poll 21-27 April had Labour on 55%, National on 29%, Greens 5% and NZ First 6%.

The poll was conducted between 8-16 May with half of the responses taken after the Budget.
The poll has a maximum sample error of +/- 3.1 percent.  

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 59.5%
  • Simon Bridges 4.5%
  • Judith Collins 3.1%
  • Winston Peters not mentioned

Past results for the current term:  Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

A lot could change over the next four months.

David Farrar must have known what was coming, pointing out that incumbent Governments and leaders usually poll very well during a crisis (even Donald Trump has improved a little) – see Polls during a crisis.

Many heads of governments are also getting good ratings specifically for their response to Covid-19. The percentage who approve of their response is Angela Merkel 75%, Boris Johnson 70%, Justin Trudeau 64%.

There’s quite a bit of carping in NZ about Scott Morrison, but his net approval has shot up 46%.

But big swings in a crisis can be short lived – Boris Johnson’s approval rating plummets nine points over bungled first week of easing out of lockdown

The poll found some 39 per cent of the nation are supportive of the Government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, down nine points on the 48 per cent recorded a week ago.

Meanwhile, those saying they disapproved of the Government rose from 36 per cent last week to 42 per cent.

Was the lockdown the right call?

 

Newshub poll reports:

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26 Comments

  1. Duker

     /  18th May 2020

    “David Farrar must have known what was coming”

    yes , he does polling for National and probably is getting ‘similar’ numbers.
    not that the caucus would get the numbers and maybe Bridges would be shielded from the full results so he can honestly say “Im not seeing that” – or words like that …hehehehe
    The MP who deals with Curia is Bridges RH man McLay

    Cue the screamers who dispute the results go full somersault as they orbit out of reality

    Reply
  2. I wonder whether those who gush over the PM will keep doing it when the fallout is known.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  18th May 2020

      No worries. Got a slick PR machine that’s very ably & subtly shaped the public mood & controls the tv news fangirls. Any blame for fallout will be put on the virus, not me.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  18th May 2020

        … up until now, Bridges has been partly protected by the fact that there was no clear replacement that would do better. Now that National is brushing 30 per cent, that all changes. Other potential leaders such as Judith Collins or Todd Muller come into the frame. Collins is almost certainly too-polarising a figure to win National an election, but she could save some of the furniture, if a rout is considered to be on the cards.

        People forget, but Ardern was also originally elevated to save some furniture because Labour was staring down the barrel of a massive defeat under Andrew Little, after a series of dud leaders. It was a Hail Mary that paid off — the rest is history.

        Yet parties don’t change leaders lightly and the cooler heads in National understand that rolling Bridges on the basis of one — or even two — polls would be extremely risky. In 2017 Little eventually stepped aside for Ardern. In contrast, National has no obvious political saviour — particularly no one who can clearly challenge Ardern’s popularity.

        The key question for many National MPs is not whether, as the political debate starts to focus more on economic questions, National will pick up ground, they think it will. The question is whether Simon Bridges is the leader who can help do it.

        It is understood that a One News Colmar Brunton poll could be in the field and released before the National Party caucus next Tuesday. It could decide Bridges’ fate.

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/121551683/new-poll-puts-bridges-near-the-death-spiral

        Reply
    • duperez

       /  18th May 2020

      We’ll see the how the power of prayer goes I guess with all those praying for the wheels to fall off and for things to go really bad.

      Reply
  3. duperez

     /  18th May 2020

    Farrar will just stay in the mode he’s permanently in. A Nat MP will breath it’ll be triumph, a Labour MP breathes and we should reconvene the Nuremberg trials. If his lynch mob mentality supporters don’t get to the transgressor first.

    It’s only a poll. It’s only May.

    Reply
  4. Reply
    • Duker

       /  18th May 2020

      Ahhh the Claire Robinson who has been political communication professor who has said
      Research tells her that, since 1998, the political party leading the opinion polls in July of the year before the election has gone on to win the highest proportion of the party vote, enabling it to form a government….

      Reply
  5. Horrace

     /  18th May 2020

    I always think the polls are biased one way or other. This one was taken when there were thousands of people at home actually Inthink it was over 1m. Most of these would be on the paid wage subsidy, disproportionately they would be left leaning but aak them again in 2 months when the economy reality has sunk in.
    As an aside in 45 years I’ve never ever been polled!

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  18th May 2020

      Pollsters work the phones very regularly, and it’s mostly early evening for land lines ,because…….yes so they catch people at home. Now cell phones are called as well and they can be anywhere.
      first stage of greif here …. Don’t believe it

      How are they going to manage Colmar Brunton poll next week …blame the media

      Reply
      • Horrace

         /  19th May 2020

        Ok… well that explains why I haven’t been polled ever I haven’t had a landline for 25 years… or maybe it’s because I live in the most valuable house in the most
        valuable suburb that is not in Auckland…so how dare I or my neighbors have an opinion.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  19th May 2020

          I’m in North Welly & got phone poll calls 4 times before the last election.

          On my landline, which will likely be discontinued now ma has passed away; everybody else but her and her peers in their 80s or 90s, usually calling about her, have phoned me on my mobile.

          4 times is the most times I’ve ever been polled. I answered the questions for 3 of them & declined to take part in the 4th becos they wouldn’t answer any of my questions. Forget which company it was.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  19th May 2020

            “how dare I or my neighbors have an opinion.”
            Ignorant opinions are still ignorant ….. as for Castle Horrace , its just too funny

            Reply
            • Aaron

               /  19th May 2020

              Funnily Duker – ignorant has two meanings, one I would happily accept as true and fair of us, the other I would not. Oh and we found that the Castle on the hill is the nickname of our house by others. But Castle Horrace now that has a ring to it…

  6. I could write something SMUG.. but I’ll let the result speak for itself
    >seems that 19/9/20 will be when the staunch tories (30%) show their true colours.
    BUT also that kiwis have perhaps forgotten, we have MMP Govt.; It is not just about Lab V Natl :/

    Reply
    • Gerrit

       /  19th May 2020

      If we look at the numbers this next election will be a Labour V National FPP style election.

      NZFirst at 2.5% is gone, Greens at 5.5% hanging on by a thread, No other party above 1.5%.

      ACT with a healthy donated electoral seat, look save to return (two seats on these numbers) and will no doubt be in the National camp.

      Biggest problem I see is for Labour is with 30% of their electoral seats (the seats that provide the percentage that allocates the number of list seats) are in the seven Maori electorates.

      You can see in this budget an allocation, based on race, of $1,000,000,000 (on top of the extra $50,000,000 payments for virus support handed out to Maori alone) to placate and save guard their hold on the 7 Maori electoral seats.

      If the Maori seats swing in any way towards a Maori party vote Labour (and or National) may not win the next election outright but instead have to negotiate the MMP election after all. it all depends on those 7 Maori seats. So yes if the Maori seats swing towards a Maori party vote we will be back to a MMP election where the Maori party becomes King (or Queen) maker.

      With NZFirst polling so low, will their voters swing towards National or Labour (currently it would seem towards Labour)? And will their Maori voters (especially up North) swing behind the Maori party?

      Will there be a swing away from Labour from the 85% non Maori voters with their constant pandering to plus largess for Maori, to maintain their hold on the Maori electoral seats?

      Going to be interesting to say the least.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  19th May 2020

        Interesting analysis, Gerrit. How does it look to you if Labour retains most of the Maori seats but loses one or maybe two (e.g. Far North)?

        None of Labour’s or NZF’s Maori Ministers (except Peters) impress on performance on any economic analysis, but I venture that it’s their performance on marae & on Maori tv that tips the result one way or another.

        Maori electorates & influencers will likely be pretty strongly influenced by how they favourably they perceive the marae rhetoric & iwi relationship management is done. This is something that Ardern has been ably advised on to date, given that her initial approach was no race-based funding; Maori will benefit from raising all ships.

        She has actually excelled at the grand gesture & warnth of marae appearances,& these things count in Maoridom, imo.

        Reply
        • duperez

           /  19th May 2020

          The comment about performance on marae and Maori TV is important. It has come to be that a politician isn’t doing anything or isn’t effective and contributing unless they’re in the headlines or featuring on TV or in news media.
          And if they’re in the ‘women’s’ magazines they’re important.

          Social media obviously has become part of a paradigm switch but the traditional meet and greet and personal contact and networking at a local level are the absolute base. Marae are part that.
          It is a world that many have little experience of and is a flavour or style as it pertains to politics that doesn’t fit the pattern most have in their head.

          Reply
      • duperez

         /  19th May 2020

        Is NZF gone if Peters wins Northland?

        Reply
        • Gerrit

           /  19th May 2020

          No, but at 2.5% list count he may only bring in two or three extra MP’s so his strength will be diminished in terms of numbers and bargaining power. He would sit alongside National on the opposition benches.

          Be worth the price of admission to see Peters up against his old friends. Does he know where skeletons are buried after three years inside the cabinet?

          I don’t think Labour would want Peters outside the tent knowing what mischievousness he is capable off, and bring him into coalition even if they don’t need NZFirst numbers.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  19th May 2020

            Plus the old truism NZF vote is higher than its polling and Greens are lower, for obvious reasons

            Reply
          • duperez

             /  19th May 2020

            Just imagining the seating arrangement in the House with the possible scenarios. The Sarah Dowie and Jami-Lee Ross situation was nothing to another possible arrangement in the House after the election.

            The National leadership changes and Bennett is gone as deputy and moved along the chain. Peters scrapes in in Northland and has a couple of cobbers.
            They arrive in school on the first day and go to their desks and Paula and Winston are in adjoining desks! Or he just behind her. The old pig tails in the inkwell position. 😂

            Reply
      • Gezza

         /  19th May 2020

        Sometimes I’ve found myself speculating on how the Party polls would look if you too out the people at the top.

        If Labour didn’t have Jacinda, I reckon they’d be rooted.

        If National didn’t have Simon, they’d do fine.

        Reply
  1. Pressure mounts for National and NZ First, Greens still bordeline | Your NZ

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