The latest Reid Research poll may well be the best result that Labour and Jacinda Ardern get unless the transition out of lockdown and getting the economy up and running again goes smoothly.
But with National on 30% and Simon bridges dropping to 4.5% as preferred Prime Minister the pressure continues to build over leadership, and also for survival for many National MPs.
If National drop to around 30% in the election in September they are unlikely to get any list MPs back into Parliament, and their may be an overhang with their electorate MPs possibly adding up to more than their MMP proportion of votes.
Bridges has sometimes seemed ok but often comes across poorly. The key reason why there are not challengers queueing up is that no one else wants to become leader facing likely defeat.
However the risk with keeping Bridges on is that he could drag National down further, which would be bad for list MPs and MPs in marginal electorates wanting to keep their jobs.
NZ First have not polled over 5% this year in published polls, and slipped to 2.7% in the latest.
Winston Peters hasn’t even featured on ‘preferred Prime Minister’ coverage of the latest poll.
It’s unwise to count NZ First out before an election but they have been dumped before while in Government, in 2008. Each recovery mission must be getting harder for Peters and riskier for his party.
With Labour polling over 50% they wouldn’t need NZ First even if the latter survives the election. Challenging times for Peters.
Greens made the cut, just, getting 5.5%, but they have been struggling to keep over the threshold in polls and they are openly struggling to get donations.
Labour’s popularity may benefit the Greens as long as it doesn’t suck oxygen and support from the minor party.
Not having a single strong and prominent leader works against the Greens beyond their core of dedicated supporters.
And on current polling Labour wouldn’t need the Greens to form a Government. Even if they formed a coalition the Greens are likely to be in a weak bargaining position.
A lot could happen over they next four months, and political support can evaporate as quickly as it can build.
But as Covid continues to dominate the news and public attention, and as Ardern continues to receive adulation and deserved praise, voters may ignore the inadequacies of some of her ministers and keep dishing out support.
National came close but always failed to get enough votes to rule alone under MMP.
In the current circumstances and with current levels of support Labour and Ardern look to be in the strongest position of any party to win a majority alone.
Your NZ 
Duker
/ 19th May 2020National leaning voters may strategic vote NZ First to act as a damper on labour.
Labour may come down a bit before election plus their voters feel its a foregone conclusion and stay home. Act may improve as well as many Nats voters are aligned that way but just dont have confidence in ACT normally.
David
/ 19th May 2020A strategic NZ First vote could be the only thing stopping the Greens wielding way too much power.
Early days yet, let’s see what happens
NOEL
/ 19th May 2020Dunno. Last election a number were voting NZ First more as a block to the excesses of the Greens than Labour.
NZ First future will be determined by the SFO outcome.
Duker
/ 19th May 2020And what about the other SFO case , the National Party donation scandal ?
JLR: [laughs] Hey um you know at Paul Goldsmith’s function you saw those two Chinese guys, Zhang Yikun and Colin? You had dinner at their home?
SB: Yes.
JLR: They talked to you about a hundred thousand dollar donation –
SB: Yep
JLR: That is now in.
SB: Fantastic
……
JLR: Donations can only be raised two ways – party donation or candidate donation. Party donation has a different disclosure which is fine, and the way they’ve done it meets the disclosure requirements – sorry, it meets the requirements where it’s under the particular disclosure level because they’re a big association and there’s multiple people and multiple people make donations, so that’s all fine, but if it was a candidate donation it’s different. So making them party donations is the way to do it. Legally, though, if they’re party donations they’re kind of under Greg’s name as the party secretary, so –
Bridges knows about the $100k and its ‘under the disclosure level’….yes he want wont to talk about it …..but it will spread like a virus on social media
David
/ 19th May 2020Wishful thinking Duker, no one is interested in Nationals donations but Winstons is a different matter as there are actual policy outcomes that can be documented. He is donkey deep, has previous form and loves to sit atop his moral platform passing judgement.
duperez
/ 19th May 2020Amazing how in a couple of centimetres down a page moral platforms can become massive or non-existent.
Gezza
/ 19th May 2020Why does Phil Twyford’s face keep flashing on & off in my mind as I re-read that? 😳
Gezza
/ 19th May 2020Christ! Damn your eyes! Can’t seem to get rid of it. I better go have lunch. See if that helps.
NOEL
/ 19th May 2020Didn’t they plead not guilty so it on going.
PG???
Anyway wont be back until after the elections.
Duker
/ 19th May 2020An election is a good chance to give it all a fresh airing….. Bridges…National… Chines straw donors..$100k – there was an earlier one too from Englishes time.
Facebook loves memes like that….
Duker
/ 19th May 2020I see Mikey has gone from Never Bridges 2 yrs ago to ‘Hold your nerve’
Mike Hosking on National leader Simon Bridges poll result: ‘Panic is a weak man’s game’
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12332943
Still no sign in his column of his usual anti labour vitriol like “Covid 19 coronavirus: Mike Hosking – Labour playing us like a fiddle” which was usual 2 weeks ago.
The sock is still there
Gezza
/ 19th May 2020As long as Labour’s got Jacinda they’ve got a hope. Take her out & that leaves Grant. The rest are hopeless.
Harry
/ 19th May 2020“deserved praise” for Ardern lol – one of the most ridiculous things I have read lately. Do you mean she deserves praise for imposing a police state?
Gezza
/ 19th May 2020Get a grip, Harry. If NZ was a police state they’d have tracked you down & be knocking your door by now.
Kitty Catkin
/ 19th May 2020Deserved praise for buggering the economy, making people die alone and not allowing their families to have funerals, not allowing people to see their dying parents or children, driving people to suicide, raising domestic violence, stopping medical treatment and operations, raising mental illness to an extent that the mental health helpline had double the usual number of calls….
Then there’s the cruelty of leaving people who live alone in isolation for seven weeks, and leaving old people in bad health with no one allowed to go into their houses (a rule that was probably broken, I hope, as others were not prepared to risk someone’s life)
And, of course, the number who were driven to suicide; does she deserve praise for that ?
Duker
/ 19th May 2020Suicide numbers down …saving lives you mean.
less isolation for most and less hard spirits make the differences…. maybe the gun buyback helped as well , but too early on that one
Gezza
/ 19th May 2020“A man in the US thought the Covid-19 pandemic was a “fake crisis” until he and his wife contracted it.
Brian Hitchens from Jupiter, Florida, was previously a self-proclaimed coronavirus sceptic. He told US media outlet WPTV he thought it was “the government trying something” to distract everyone.
“There were all these masks and gloves. I thought it looks like hysteria.”
Almost five weeks ago he and his wife started feeling ill. They were later admitted to hospital and placed in ICU. After their diagnosis, he changed his opinion.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/donald-trumps-america/121555314/us-man-who-thought-covid19-was-fake-admitted-to-hospital-wife-in-icu
Zedd
/ 19th May 2020Natl can ditch Bridges, BUT who will replace him ?
Paula, Judith, Gerry OR ?? ie the ‘old guard’
I think they need to look at the others; I suggested another, BUT was downticked by the usual tories, so I wont re-mention her name again; ‘the white mouse’ 🙂
Roll on 19/9/20 & yes we do have MMP, its not just Lab v Natl
Gezza
/ 19th May 2020She’s no match for Jacinda. She’d just look waspish & bitchy.
Zedd
/ 19th May 2020on TV3 news.. they were discussing this & they showed a few ‘potential replacements’. Judith said ‘not interested’.. they also flashed a pic of ‘the white mouse’ (as I call her) too..
BUT hey.. it could be ‘just my imagination’ ? 😀
IMHO.. they need to look past the ‘J Key hangovers’.
After Labour stumbled over 3-4 ‘seat warmers’ they got Jacinda (out of left field) maybe this is what Natl needs too, a fresher face ?!
Zedd
/ 19th May 2020OOPs: ‘the Hon White mouse’; she is the Education spokesperson, in case there is any doubt
Zedd
/ 19th May 2020btw: a couple of elections ago.. she beat Jacinda out of the Auckland central seat, which I think she still holds.. ‘the white mouse who Roared !’ 🙂
BUT hey Id be quite happy to see Simon continue taking natl down to an all time LOW 😀
Zedd
/ 20th May 2020I heard on TV news that Ms Kaye & T Muller are leading the ‘Lets roll Simon’ crew
How did zedd guess this youz ask ? 😀 😀
Gezza
/ 19th May 2020When all the female reporters/repeaters are still so besotted with Ardern that they seriously ask her (& tv news shows her answering) 8 year old schoolgirl-type questions, Simon’s just got no bloody show:
TVNZ
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/dr-bloomfield-asked-describe-jacinda-ardern-in-one-word-can-have-two-v1?auto=6157583386001
It comes after the Prime Minister was also asked to describe herself in one word during a media address in Rotorua.
“Right now, ‘focused’,” she responded to the question laughing.
Next up it was Dr Bloomfield’s turn to sum up Ms Ardern in one word at the Ministry of Health’s daily Covid-19 media briefing.
“Can I have two?” he asked before simply answering “Pry Minista”.
Dr Bloomfield and Ms Ardern have shared the stage many times since the Covid-19 pandemic began, only recently ending their daily press conferences together now the country has moved to Alert Level 2.
Gezza
/ 19th May 2020Tch tch. Naughty Nats.
The Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) has ruled that a National Party Facebook ad comparing job growth and beneficiary numbers was misleading.
But the party is appealing the decision and has not taken the ad down.
The ad stated that there was 1000 more people “on the dole every month under Labour” compared to “nearly 10,000 jobs every month under National.”
Its stated source was MSD benefit fact sheets covering September 2017 through December 2019 for the benefit figures and the Household Labour Force Survey for quarter three of 2015 through quarter three of 2017.
But it’s not all that cut & dried:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300015300/national-facebook-ad-ruled-misleading-by-watchdog-party-will-appeal-decision
Gezza
/ 19th May 2020Peters deals with it by grabbing some more limelight
Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters claims he knows who leaked his pension details and is pursuing court action “for all people who have had their privacy breached.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300016214/winston-peters-pursues-court-action-claims-he-knows-who-leaked-pension-details
Pete George
/ 19th May 2020He should have found that out before his original legal action. If he succeeds this time damages may be nowhere near costs that could be awarded against him in his failed attempt.
Gezza
/ 19th May 2020Is there an election coming up?
Gerrit
/ 20th May 2020You would think, armed with parliament privilege, Peters simply stand up in parliament and declares “who done it”.
But he wont as he is still fishing. He would have done it by now.
Or maybe he is holding out to closer to the election to gain, in his mind at least, the most dramatic effect?