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Gezza
/ 25th May 2020Good morning all
It appears that quarantine requirements are very strict…
Posted: https://yournz.org/2020/05/25/stress-of-covid-quarantine/
artcroft
/ 25th May 2020In actual fact we are all in quarantine from the outside world. Stuff reports we may be in that situation for two years or more. There may come a time when NZ has to break out of quarantine and dam the cost.
Gerrit
/ 25th May 2020Be interesting to see how many government ministers need to travel overseas and break the quarantine. Plus will they be locked up for 14 days like the plebs on return?
Hope we don’t get into a situation where “all animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others”.
I guess visits to such luminary events as the G20 summit etc., are off the cards?
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Dont you keep up? …those summits have been cancelled for some time….no need to be concerned about your farmyard friends either, better to watch out that you dont stand in those ..’cowpats’
Corky
/ 25th May 2020It was probably over a decade ago, Ian Wishart wrote a great article on the corrupt and dysfunctional CAA. In the last few days, MSM has caught up. Better late than never, I suppose.
Talking of Wishart, it’s time for him to drop another bombshell.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/05/major-report-finds-culture-of-fear-in-civil-aviation-authority.html
Duker
/ 25th May 20209 years of neglect was how it started. Nigel Gould the Chair was appointed in 2011
Newshub has been running stories on this for years
Corky
/ 25th May 2020Stop talking shit.
This is not the article I want…but look at the DATE..
http://www.investigatemagazine.com/march00jet.htm
Corky
/ 25th May 2020Mikey speaks… the Nation listens.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12334438
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Without reading it …has he flip flopped again..back in 2018 he was all for Collins but when Joyce stood switched to him. Then became a never Bridges man and last week was saying any change over was ‘weakness’
Let me guess, the flopper has flipped again……oh no hes still wants Joyce
Corky
/ 25th May 2020”Without reading it.”
Yeah…right.
If you haven’t read it, why are you commenting?
Duker
/ 25th May 2020I did , thats why I said he still wants Joyce.
Just a check to see if the worst Pundit in the country was getting better.
Sat on the fence with Muller..whos slightly younger than Mikey – must make him feel old-, but far better qualified
Its said you are getting older when the police are younger ,and getting really old when the politicians are younger
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020Mikey speaks… the Nation listens.
Bit of a stretch. Heaps of people can’t stand him & won’t read OR listen to him because they think he’s an arrogant twit.
I don’t mind him in small doses, but I can’t stomach listening to his hi-speed rabbiting on constantly interupted by irritating ads for his full morning show. The occasional political interview can be worth listening to, but they’re not always available online.
He’s been caught out arguing the complete opposite thing separated by a few days so that makes his opinions & principles questionable; just another shock jock looking for acolytes?
Corky
/ 25th May 2020Muslim women make utter fools of themselves. That’s if you understand Islam. For your average ignorant liberal, they will believe these women have made a valid point.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12334292
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020Came up last night too:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/golriz-ghahraman-exhausted-at-debate-over-todd-muller-s-maga-hat.html
Hang on. I’ll have a read of your link.
Alan Wilkinson
/ 25th May 2020Funny to see the loony Left and their media junkies having a meltdown over a hat. I hope Todd wears it a few times to see if he can make them tear their hair out.
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020I think Newshub covers it better.
Wouldn’t be completely surprised if Todd’s pointedly staking his ground as a Christian, while all innocently denying it, knowing that Trump’s reviled as anti-Muslim by a great many Muslims.
There’d be votes in it from one sector of the population; any voting segment’s worth dog whistling to while National’s down in the polls & Labour’s up, & Ardern’s currently in the poll stratosphere.
Doubt he’ll change his mind. Easy enuf to claim innocence.
Corky
/ 25th May 2020“That hat represents the denial of the freedom of beliefs. That hat represents the denial of minority voices. That hat represents the vitriol that has been harming that nation and has been harming the world for the last four years,” Danzeisen said.”
Muller may be doing doing the cap thing on purpose. But I don’t see the point. He has made it quite clear he has a faith. That’s enough for liberals. And given the strong anti religious vein that runs through NZ, the last thing he would want is to upset the fundamentalist materialists. They provide the bulk of his support.
David
/ 25th May 2020I think Muller will turn out to be Nationals Shearer, nice guy, good CV etc etc. I am not excited in the slightest but its still early days.
I would have preferred Nikki or Judith than another grey middle aged middle class middle of the road pale male and stale candidate.
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020I don’t think Nikki could pull off winning an election over Jacinda. Public Persona-wise, Jacinda’s too tall, too nice, too clever at managing the fangirl media. Notwithstanding that I think that some of them might turn on Jacinda given half the chance for reasons to do with subconscious mate competition.
Duker
/ 25th May 2020“some of them might turn on Jacinda given half the chance for reasons to do with subconscious mate competition”
mansplaining alert, not a moderator but a fractious checker required
David
/ 25th May 2020She beat her twice in Auckland Central. I think they are similar except with Nikki having a prodigious work ethic and is determinedly goal oriented which would be an interesting contrast next to empathy and emoting Jacinda.
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020Empathy and emoting has been working for Jacinda up until now.
I just got back home from an invitation to lunch with a retired advocate & counsellor with a clinical psychology degree & her husband.
We were discussing this.
She’s a pretty obvious Labour supporter, though critical of chronic government underfunding & stuffing about restructurings of WINZ & CFYS & their derivatives by both the Clark & Key administrations.
While obviously indivduals vary hugely according to gender, one can generalise to the extent that those things will generally appeal more to women than facts & figures without an emotional component, she reckons.
As I was leaving, we were discussing psychopaths. I ventured that from what I’d seen they were much more likely to be male than female, anticipating confirmation. “Oh they’re out there”, she said. “No doubt about that. They’re just a lot less visible.”
Duker
/ 25th May 2020“She beat her twice in Auckland Central.”
Thats because that seat has a large greens vote the electorate numbers were Kaye 45% and Labour 40% and Green 10%
Some of the wealthiest suburbs in Auckland , natural national territory
No they wont go head to head again as Ardern has her own seat now.
David
/ 25th May 2020She beat them both and Ardern didnt have the confidence to step up and win so ran off to another safe seat that was gifted to her. Thats why Nikki should have been leader she is a winner not a choker, hell Ardern is only leader becuase she was forced into it as there was literally no one else in that woeful caucus.
Auckland Central was always a Labour seat until Nikki came along.
duperez
/ 25th May 2020David, are you going to give us the inside info on Ardern’s work ethic?
Do you know how national trends and demographic changes affected electoral results in Auckland Central over years?
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Seats don’t keep their original boundaries, nor their same demographics especially a seat like this.
Not always labour as Alliance party with Sandra held it as well
Talk about electorate hopping Hide stood for Act here in 1996
Gerrit
/ 25th May 2020Hillary Clinton called the loony right “deplorables”
Hope Muller wears his Hillary campaign button then the loony right can equal the loony left rhetoric and cancel each other out nicely.
How immature is the woke media? How immature are the Green woke MP’s?
Heaps and heaps..
Alan Wilkinson
/ 25th May 2020Stuff CEO buys the company:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/121613758/stuff-ceo-sinead-boucher-buys-the-company-announces-great-new-era
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020Now NZ-owned? Good / bad ? What do you think?
Alan Wilkinson
/ 25th May 2020I suppose rationally it is bad as its likely losses will now be carried by New Zealanders. I hope she doesn’t put too much of her own money into it. Probably a triumph of hope over experience but I hope I am wrong.
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Management buyouts usually involve mostly outside capital unless its the founder of the company. Cant see them being NZ funds putting their money in …may even be the hedge funds who are big holders of NZME shares or even Oaktree who control Media works have a minor share…
May never be revealed as its one private company to another, unless OIO is involved and the Petone printing plant isnt included maybe to get around that hurdle
Corky
/ 25th May 2020Jacinda has said compulsory vaccination will not be required with any Covid vaccination released.
This is a shite storm waiting happen. Anti Vaxx nutters…Pro Vaccination Crazies…people who don’t know(a demographic that should be culled), organisations with an agenda, Nano Girl, The Pink One and Rangi from Te Aroha.
For the record..there’s no way I will be having that vaccination for at least five years.
Alan Wilkinson
/ 25th May 2020Looks as though the epidemic may die out before the vaccines can be qualified.
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Started out in Wuhan with one person 9 months ago and now is over 5 mill have been infected world wide ….yep die out is a likely option….Just takes 1 more to start all over again and UK still has 10s thousands infected.
Alan Wilkinson
/ 25th May 2020Rubbish. There are plenty still infected in the UK, Europe and the US yet it is dying out there. As I linked yesterday the Oxford vaccine developers fear there is not enough remaining risk in the population to establish whether their vaccine works.
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Not dying out in US, their DAILY new cases is more a plateau of 20,000 per day, down from over 30k per day at peak.
Tell me how many NEW cases per day for US is ‘dying out’ ( they are 66x our population, you can do maths). The big decline never happened.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Alan Wilkinson
/ 25th May 2020It is dying out in all the places it hit first. The others are following the same curves belatedly.
Pink David
/ 25th May 2020https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYzWl-PUYAAW2ir?format=png&name=4096×4096
Pink David
/ 25th May 2020Duker
/ 25th May 202020,000 or so NEW cases per day isnt dropping its a plateau , nowhere near dying out
Just looking at % of positive tests show that testing rates are high
20,000 NEW cases per day
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
You do know its new cases that pass on the virus not people that test negative.
But thats Trupidemiology for you, ignore the obvious
Pink David
/ 25th May 2020“20,000 or so NEW cases per day isnt dropping its a plateau , nowhere near dying out”
Lets check in in 7 days. About the same time we look at Sweden and see if you r predictions have come to fruition.
If it’s <5,000 cases per day, will you agree its dying out? In 7 days.
Duker
/ 25th May 2020This is what rapidly dropping daily new cases looks like – NZ
US 5000 new cases per day would 75 per day in NZ terms, still too high. No evidence US will averaging 5000 new per day in a week or even a months time….plateaus do that.
Pink David
/ 25th May 2020Glad you agree on the milestone for your prediction. See you on the 1st June.
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Our peak was around 75 new per day before falling and you think pro rata thats a ‘dying out’ …. and you are a professional …did they not read your actual CV
You showed your complete ignorance over the naval gunfire ….never read Friedman, Polmar , DK Brown, Hobbs of any other ‘basics’ authors
Guarantee US will still be around the 20K number in a week …see the story about double counting test results
Pink David
/ 25th May 2020“You showed your complete ignorance over the naval gunfire ….never read Friedman, Polmar , DK Brown, Hobbs of any other ‘basics’ authors”
You make this claim after posting the most risible nonsense I’ve ever seem. You have access to information of this level, yet still make a comment like this;
” armour plate along the sides was useless”
and this;
“The original idea was they would sail past at a few miles and shoot the bejesus out of each other”
A whole bookshelf on this which would show this was simply not the case and still get it wrong. That’s quite an achievement.
“Guarantee US will still be around the 20K number in a week ”
Great.
Pink David
/ 25th May 2020“yep die out is a likely option”
Die out is the only option. That is what happens. Unless you have evidence that Covid is somehow different to everything else in that class, nul hypothesis applies.
Take it from Prof Sunetra Gupta, who has been bang on the money from day 1.
https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/
Duker
/ 25th May 2020“There are three main differences between the Imperial and the Oxford models. One, they use different modelling approaches. Two, they use different key parameters. And three, they pose and answer different questions.”
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-weve-had-imperial-oxford-and-many-more-models-but-none-can-have-all-the-answers-135137
They do different things using different models and use different parameters
Gupta uses CFR in her model – case fatality ratio or ‘ the proportion of people who die from a disease out of everyone formally diagnosed with the disease.’
Fergusson uses IFR or Infection fatality Rate or ‘the total proportion of people who die out of everyone who has virus. , includes asymptomatic which for Covis 19 is exceptionally high 40% or more . Sars had a very low number which made it simpler to contact trace and that was a time before mass travel to and from China around 2005.
from your link
“Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it [IFR] would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.” That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%.
The door is still open on whether the IFR is 1% or 0.02% Its certainly not settled
‘ seroprevalence results for just over 60,000 people in the Spanish population study, with an IFR of 1.1%”
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-14/antibody-study-shows-just-5-of-spaniards-have-contracted-the-coronavirus.html
as an aside Sweden has been at the daily confirmed infection rate of 400- 500 or so for some time , another plateau and not a sign of falling quickly
Pink David
/ 25th May 2020“.Just takes 1 more to start all over again and UK still has 10s thousands infected.”
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-disappearing-so-fast-oxford-vaccine-has-only-50-chance-of-working-11993739
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Whats the highest antibody test rates 7% ?
Whats the herd immunity level where it dies out of its own accord , 35%
Thats of course with no social distancing what ever
The reason for the ‘optimism’ over US % test rates was the numbers were wrong from CDC double counting
“The Centers for Disease Control has been lumping together tests for active coronavirus with tests for recovered patients, boosting testing totals but muddying the pandemic’s course.”
“Stunned epidemiologists say data from antibody tests and active virus tests should never be mixed because diagnostic testing seeks to quantify the amount of active disease in the population. ”
NY Times and others
Hmmm people who had recovered had tested negative … of course they do
Look up what happened with the 1918 pandemic and then say ‘follow on infection waves’ dont exist
Pink David
/ 25th May 2020Single function thinking.
Pink David
/ 25th May 2020Duker
/ 25th May 2020If immunity was give by ‘old viruses colds etc’ they would be hurtling down that path for a vaccine
Professor Karol Sikora is a radiation oncologist , would have no more knowledge than your average GP about serology ,virus transmission and epidemiology
So put your pop up expert to rest. hes nothing of the sort, even my little medical knowlege debunks him right away
Pink David
/ 25th May 2020“even my little medical knowlege debunks him right away”
You really are a funny guy. You actually believe this.
Care to give us your background on medical and epidemic matters? You clearly have experience to back this up. I have given mine.
Care to also ‘debunk’ Prof Sunetra Gupta? She is saying the same thing, and did so at the very beginning of this.
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Why would you believe a retired radiation oncologist…you dont seem to know what they do
Pink David
/ 25th May 2020I don’t ‘believe’ him. Belief is not a requirement. He makes compelling arguments based on data.
Prof Sunetra Gupta the same.
I have to repeat to you, again Prof Neil Ferguson is the person who’s work supported the lockdowns across the world is a physicist.
Show us your CV. If you wish to play credentials, lets see it.
lurcher1948
/ 25th May 2020Gezza powers gone in Newlands,how’s TAWA going… end of times,earthquakes
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Nope . DC line from South is 687 MW at 15:04
Just a local outage.
geonet earthquake drums for lower NI have had an active morning but nothing new inside 50 min
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020Power’s on here.
Just as well.
I pay my power bill.
I expect power.
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Paying the bill doesnt guarantee power at all. I worked for a major international company that had back up power in the basement with a large flywheel rotating between the incoming and backup to steady the supply between the batteries until the diesels kicked in.
Thats ‘expecting power’
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020Sorry. I was posting to Lurchy.
He doesn’t need a 😉 emoji to know that was said in humour.
I forgot about you.
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Forgot about you …Was just showcasing my wide experience and general wisdom
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020Yeah
Paying the bill doesnt guarantee power at all
Right.
Griff.
/ 25th May 2020I dont pay a power bill .
Haven’t for at lest a decade
My Power is on.
This proves you should stop paying power bills as in my experience paying a power bill has no correlation to continuation of supply .
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020I remembered you tho. 😎
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020And that one’s pretty good for you 👍🏼 😀
Duker
/ 25th May 2020So Amy Adams ‘retirement story’ last year – The kids are growing up and Im tired ‘ was bumpf.
She was demoted by Bridges from the finance job – which was justified- in my view and she wanted out in a huff.
““Making the decision to step away from politics has not been an easy one but it is the right time for me and my family and I’m looking forward to whatever the future holds.”
On Tuesday, Adams said she was tired and wanted to reconnect with her family.
“This is the decision about, ultimately, the life I want. And the fact remains, I want my life back. I’ve given it everything I’ve got… it’s been nearly 30 years working at this pace, and I’m tired.”
Tired ?
Sure Amy , the change of mind is good for your family too….pleeeeese
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2019/06/25/652740/amy-adams-to-leave-parliament
Will Bridges be staying around as well, in spite of saying he will….. as we know these arent really how they feel or how the job market looks
Duker
/ 25th May 2020“The Act Party is highlighting the fact that a number of its new candidates are licensed firearms owners – a clear signal that firearms laws will be a key election issue for the party.”
Ahh the gun lobby, I suppose the realisation is Charter schools policy was a flop to bring in new voters so a new gimmick is required.
“Act’s president Tim Jago specifically singled out the fact that there are “seven licensed firearms owners” among the candidates.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=12334516
Dont think any in the top few would know which end of a gun is the trigger- cant wait for a smart arse reporter ask Seymour some duck hunting questions
Corky
/ 25th May 2020”Nearly 300,000 licensed firearm owners own and use New Zealand’s estimated 1.5 million firearms.”
That’s a reasonable demographic. Why wouldn’t ACT go after them? It’s not like soppy liberals give a stuff about gun owners.
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020Muller’s New Spokesperson lineup;
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300020040/national-reshuffle-todd-muller-brings-amy-adams-back-up-top-simon-bridges-considering-future
and …
Bridges says he’s staying on
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300020152/simon-bridges-to-stay-on-in-national-says-he-is-not-considering-future
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020The new team’s up on National’s website, with roles
https://www.national.org.nz/team
Corky
/ 25th May 2020The beginning of a Reich. This election may be closer than I thought possible. Labour will no doubt be training Jacinda up on the economy, knowing Muller will come at her with that during the election debates. Muller should make sure he has an ace up his sleeve to side-step Jacinda. Jacinda is hopeless at thinking on the run. If the nation sees that…..?
I notice some polls on 3 News had a large percentage of Labour voters against the government giving out more cash to the unemployed. These socialists are obviously thinkers. They know who will be paying for all this. That’s fertile ground for Muller.
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020I left the telly on, was busy reading YNZ comments.
If you don’t worship at the feet of Ashley Bloomfield, & might be prone to vomiting at the sight & sound of swooning females & adulatory idol souvenir merchandise featuring him, don’t watch 7 Sharp, bro.
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Where’s
WaldoSimon ?Talking to the headhunters?
Corky
/ 25th May 2020Is anyone interested?
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020MP for Tauranga. Seems to be un-ranked. Offered Justice, turned it down, wanted Foreign Affairs, refused that. Muller says if he gets elected PM Bridges will be in a Muller Cabinet. Simon’s taking some time at home to have think.
Doubt he’s talking to the headhunters. With his stance on gangs he might go in & never be seen again.
Duker
/ 25th May 2020You clearly havent mixed in right circles, they are recruiters who only deal with top end executives…. Or maybe he’s looking at UN vacancies …hehehehe
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020Sorry. Forgot the damn 😉 again.
Gezza
/ 25th May 2020Looks interesting…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300017914/serial-litigant-put-in-his-place-by-court-of-appeal-president
Wonder why this option hasn’t been taken for certain other hopeless serial litigants.
Duker
/ 25th May 2020Kos is one of the sharpest legal minds in the country..it must be a eye rolling stuff to even listen to this dude
Corky
/ 25th May 2020The Pink One is now an expert on Scientology.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12334461