Roy Morgan poll – Labour 56.5%, National 26.5%

Roy Morgan stopped publishing monthly polls in New Zealand after the 2017 election but they have started again, and the news remains grim for National.

This is the first poll they have published this year but they have previous month comparisons – their detailed results show polling each month this year.

If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

  • Labour 56.5% (January 40%, March 42.5%, April 55%)
  • National 26.5% (January 40%, March 37 %, April 30.5%)
  • Greens 7% (January 10.5%, March 11.5%, April 7%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (January 7.2%, March 3%, April 2.5%)
  • ACT Party 3.5% (January 0.5%, March 3.5%, April 2.5%)
  • Maori Party 1.5% (April 1.5%)
  • The Opportunities Party 1% (April 0.5%)

Labour is very similar to recent Colmar Brunton and Reid Research results, but Natiional has trended down a bit more. This is their lowest result for a long time.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at a very high 158.5 in May, down 4.5pts from the record high of 163 reached in April

76% of New Zealand electors (down 1% since April) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 17.5% (up 3.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 894 electors during April 27 – May 24, 2020. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8429-nz-national%20-voting-intention-may-2020-202006010651


While this result doesn’t look good for new national leader Todd Muller, it is too soon to tell what effect he has had on National’s popularity – the polling period was to 24 May and Muller only took over on 22 May.

Leave a comment

17 Comments

  1. Corky

     /  2nd June 2020

    What’s changed since National were in a strong position as a opposition party? A woman with a smiling face! That’s about it. What an indictment on the intelligence of New Zealanders.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  2nd June 2020

      New Zealanders didn’t make Ardern PM.

      Rt Hon Winston Raymond Peters, PC, did.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  2nd June 2020

        “New Zealanders didn’t make Ardern PM.”

        Every PM under MMP has required MPs from smaller partys to make them PM
        Bolger did, Shipley did Clark and Key did as none had a majority of their own
        eg 2014 :60 seats won Key required 61 to govern and 3 ultra small parties ‘made him PM”
        2005 50 seats won , Clark needed 61 to govern, and 3 smallish parties made her PM

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  2nd June 2020

          Labour and NZF only had 46+9 seats =55 and required 61 to govern
          Thus 2 extra parties made Ardern PM

          Only once has the main party had one other party to govern, that was in 1996 when NZF made Bolger PM

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  2nd June 2020

            Which one could’ve gone with either party & made their leader the PM?

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  2nd June 2020

              So Peters making English PM was going to be ‘not by NZers’ but was OK because ?
              I think you totally mis understand MMP, and from the comments ( could have gone with either party, 46+9 doesn’t =61) always have

            • Gezza

               /  2nd June 2020

              No I understand MMP – but I know why you suggest I don’t.

              My point is, under MMP voters don’t elect a PM. Whichever coalition party leader or leaders have the deciding choice effectively choose the PM.

              In the 2017 election, although I voted for The Maori Party & Labour’s O’Connor as my electorate MP, I suspected that Peters in the would opt for a coalition with National.

              That’s why National supporters have been struggling with the mental adjustment required to accept that as the party with the largest number of seats they didn’t end up the government.

              And instead we have the current coalition of Winston’s ultimate choice. With a whole bunch of incompetents & a few Ministers who show signs they might know what they’re doing after 3 years.

    • Gezza

       /  2nd June 2020

      And this poll is too early to count. They all are. The next few weeks should be the most telling, as the fallout from the lockdown starts to bite.

      While Ardern & Robertson are throwing money at the newly unemployed, those folk now have to deal with Work & Income & exist on state charity. Not a nice place to be in – especially if it transpires that they didn’t need to be put in that situation.

      All eyes are now on Muller.

      Reply
    • lurcher1948

       /  2nd June 2020

      Tough titty,Corky the smiling lady can rule on her own…Saint Jacinda is the one

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  2nd June 2020

        Three months to go, Lurch. Time for Muller to find a brain and use it.

        Reply
      • The smiling woman has just stuffed the economy, Lurch, caused immeasurable pain (can you imagine not being able to see your dying child ?) and raised unemployment by an eyewatering amount.

        Her stock response to hearing that women were forced to go through miscarriages alone because the hospital wouldn’t allow husbands in, that a mother couldn’t see her dying son or adult children their dying parents was a perfunctory
        ‘No one should have to go through that.’ and then move onto the next question. Nothing was done to ease these heartless rules.

        Reply
  2. Gezza

     /  2nd June 2020

    Good to see another poller in the too-slim mix. I wonder what’s made them start polling again?

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  2nd June 2020

      They gave results for their numbers for Jan, Mar ,April as well. So they havent just ‘started’ polling again.
      ” their detailed results show polling each month this year.”

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  2nd June 2020

        Good point.

        Correction: I wonder what’s made them start publishing again.

        Reply
  3. David

     /  2nd June 2020

    And National are going to dip below 20% with this clown at the helm, and I quote:

    “Muller himself would not say when New Zealand should come out of alert level 2.

    “Ultimately, that is the advice that has to be discerned by the Cabinet,” he said.

    “They are looking at the health perspective, which is, of course, critical but also the social and economic perspectives which are increasingly critical – thirty seven and a half thousand jobs lost in a month.

    “They have to distil that and reach a considered view. That’s why I am asking for that Cabinet paper to be shared because the Government clearly can’t get on the same page.”

    Now a different leader would have tabled a motion to immediately go to Level 2 with Act and NZ First in support but not Muller, either Winnie would have been called out or Ardern would have looked weak. I cant believe how useless this guy is its driving me nuts, Hootton is advising apparently but its not clear for whose benefit.

    Reply
    • Gezza

       /  2nd June 2020

      Last para: assume you mean Level 1.

      Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  2nd June 2020

      Yes, the biggest worry is that those who elected him must be even more useless than he is.

      Reply

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