UMR poll: National bottomed out

The latest UMR poll suggests that big National’s slide may have ended, getting 30%. They were still polling in the forties in February before Covid struck but slid to 29-30 in three polls, and in the latest (Roy Morgan in late May) they got just 26.5%,

And for now at least, and Todd Muller has at least got higher approval than Simon Bridges had. It’s early days for Muller’s leadership, and his first week was not flash and he was dumped on by media, but he at least has a chance to build on some support.

  • Labour 54% (down marginally from 55% in April)
  • National 30% (up marginally from 29% in April)
  • NZ First 5% (down from 6%)
  • Greens 4% (down from 5%)
  • ACT may be 2.5%

No result reported for ACT or parties not in Parliament (but a social media mention of the ACT result).

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 65% (no change)
  • Todd Muller 13%

The April UMR poll had Bridges on 7% so Muller and National may feel a bit of vindication for changing the leadership.

The poll of 1211 voters was taken from May 26 to June 1 and has a margin of error of +/-3%.

UMR polls are private polls (paid for by Labour and corporate clients) but have been more often leaked when they have been favourable to Labour and bad for National

Source ODT/NZ Herald (with a stupid headline, the situation now is very different too when).

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2 Comments

  1. Duker

     /  6th June 2020

    The Herald says
    ““UMR is the polling company used by the Labour Party, but this was one of a regular series taken for its corporate clients rather than Labour.”
    A regular series taken for its corporate clients.
    And yes when they were bad for labour they were leaked too. Its a news adage , report the bad news
    “Leaked poll puts Labour at just 23 per cent
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11897254

    Reply
  2. David

     /  6th June 2020

    I did the poll and it was just at the time that Nikki was claiming Goldsmith was Maori and Muller was looking terrible.
    It was perfectly timed to go negative on National and I did.

    Reply

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