Media and Chloe Swarbrick versus Nikki Kaye

Chloe Swarbrick’s political fortunes have been helped a lot by media giving her a lot of free promotion, from when Swarbrick stood for the Auckland mayoralty.

Newshub seem to be doing her a favour here.

On top of the campaign boost this publicity gives Swarbrick, the choice of photos looks to favour Swarbrick over Kaye.

But beating Kaye in Auckland Central won’t be easy. Jacinda Ardern twice lost to Kaye there before switching to the safe for Labour ex-Helen Clark held Mt Albert electorate.

The seat has been held by National deputy leader Nikki Kaye since 2008, during which time she’s seen off challenges from future Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Greens’ own Denise Roche.

The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll had the Greens on 5.5 percent, in danger of falling below the 5 percent threshold required to get into Parliament without winning an electorate – which the Greens have only done once before, in 1999.

“The Greens have always been underdogs who defied the odds, fighting for every inch of political ground,” said Swarbrick, the youngest MP currently in the House and the party’s number three behind leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw.

“I’m bringing that fight to Auckland Central.”

The seat has been held by National deputy leader Nikki Kaye since 2008, during which time she’s seen off challenges from future Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Greens’ own Denise Roche.

The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll had the Greens on 5.5 percent, in danger of falling below the 5 percent threshold required to get into Parliament without winning an electorate – which the Greens have only done once before, in 1999.

“The Greens have always been underdogs who defied the odds, fighting for every inch of political ground,” said Swarbrick, the youngest MP currently in the House and the party’s number three behind leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw.

“I’m bringing that fight to Auckland Central.”

Labour is running Helen White, who only narrowly lost to Kaye in 2017. If she fails to win, it’s unlikely she’ll make it into Parliament, ranked just 50th on Labour’s list, so isn’t expected to roll over and let Swarbrick take the seat.

There is a risk Swarbrick’s push for electorate votes ends up splitting the left vote, allowing Kaye to come through the middle.

It will be interesting to see how Labour handles this.

The Spinoff: In it to win it: Chlöe Swarbrick’s run for Auckland Central

In the 2020 election, first term MP Chlöe Swarbrick will be one of just two Greens explicitly running to win an electorate.

That’s a very Swarbrick-centric article.

Kaye is likely to fight hard again, but she may have to contend with media promotion of Swarbrick this time.

But will Auckland Central voters buy the Green approach with the significant economic impact of Covid hovering over the campaign?

 

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30 Comments

  1. Duker

     /  21st June 2020

    The reason National wins this seat is the ‘left vote’ is split amoung two main parties while the right side isnt.
    In 2017 it was electorate vote
    National 45%
    Labour 40%
    Green 9.7%
    TOP 2.3%
    NZ First 2%
    Clearly 55% didnt vote for Nikki Kaye but thats not how the result is determined

    Reply
    • David

       /  21st June 2020

      On the assumption that the bulk of Green votes would have gone to Labour, not a given.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  21st June 2020

        Half of 9.7% means they almost win, and with labour riding high Niki’s vote could slip away too this year.
        What a coincidence , she now has a very high list spot

        Reply
  2. artcroft

     /  21st June 2020

    Yes the choice of photo for each candidate is very telling.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  21st June 2020

      Corrupt actually. Articles like that should come with a bias warning.

      Reply
      • I find Chloe Warbrick very tiresome, I must say.

        Why does she think that we want to know that she’s bisexual ? Yawn.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  21st June 2020

          Actually, I’ve forgotten. Is she bi or lesbian? I think she might be lesbian. I don’t think it was a surprise when she announced it. I do wonder if it does tend to shave off a few votes from the CIS genders though.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  21st June 2020

            “On the topic of her sexuality, Swarbrick has said she “likes people”, refusing to give a label. She says she didn’t come out of the closet because she was never in the closet, echoing sentiment from a conversation she had with Scottish MP Mhairi Black.[60] In January 2020 it was reported that Swarbrick had been engaged to Nadine Walker for several months, but that they had remained private about their relationship.[61]” – Wikipedia

            She’ll need to think carefully if any gushy repeater/reporter asks her if she likes animals. 😐

            Reply
            • Kimbo

               /  21st June 2020

              Or furniture! 😂

              But on a more serious note, in 2020 NZ no one worth listening to, or belonging to a voter demographic worth chasing cares about the gender or sexuality of the person/s with whom you sleep.

            • Gezza

               /  21st June 2020

              Yeah, I think quite a few still do. They just don’t talk about it.

            • Kimbo

               /  21st June 2020

              I think if they do, and leaving aside the disciples of the likes of Brian Tamaki, the majority of them take the attitude that “the love that dares not speak its name” was a more preferable arrangement to the tedious bores, especially politicians and other celebrities who insist on broadcasting their sexuality at every opportunity for self-serving attention-seeking purposes. Or worse, a higher status of victimhood in the intersectional progressive stack that is now tacitly understood among the greater populace:

              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_stack

            • Duker

               /  21st June 2020

              In National party MPs usually they hide their sexuality if it isnt of the straight kind.
              Make of that what you wish in Auckland electorates

            • The love that dare not speak its name, not dareS. I forget the next line, something pwecious about Love flying hiding his face in shame or something along those lines. It’s from a poem by that arch-hypocrite Lord Alfred Douglas who later claimed that not only were he and Oscar Wilde not lovers, he had no idea that Wilde was gay. I have his autobio, and a nastier, more disingenuous piece of work is hard to imagine. What does he take the reader for ? If he didn’t know about Oscar Wilde, he was the only person in England who didn’t.

            • My mistake, confusing two poems. It’s the last and only remembered line in an over-written ‘poem’ called Two Lovesthat’s as camp as a row of pink tents and begins ‘I dreamed that I stood on a little hill.’ It goes on for far too long and has the narrator meeting a beautiful boy who kisses him on the lips.

              The Love flying may be from Oscar Wilde. As I know which ones it WON’T be in, shall I fetch his Complete Works and look ?

              No.

            • Kimbo

               /  21st June 2020

              Ah, thank you, Kitty. I was thinking the verb would follow the third person singular, he/she/it (love) dares

              …but in the original source poem “love” is speaking in the first person, “I am the love that dare not speak its name.

              https://en.m.wikisource.org/wiki/Two_Loves_(1894_poem)

          • I know enough gays not to find this aspect of their lives riveting. What consenting adults do in private is their business and not that fascinating. One of the GPs at the practice I go to is gay and his partner works there, too. They are just another couple as far as the town is concerned.

            It seems as if Chloe was the one who raised the subject, which has nothing to do with her ability as an MP.

            Reply
          • Gezza

             /  21st June 2020

            I don’t think it matters. It sounds like she hasn’t made a big thing out of it & if she wants to keep her private life private, fine. Plenty of other MPs do. Keeping it hidden might be another matter. Especially if they start shaming CIS genders & playing the smart-arse young ageist.

            Reply
            • She did. She claimed to have had ‘the look’ when she was out with her partner and so on…she seemed to expect that her sexuality would be blazened all over the papers (or words to that effect) and seemed a bit taken aback that no one had mentioned it….

              There are enough same sex couples around now for them not to be stared at.I think that she imagines that other people are more fascinated by this than they are.

          • Gezza

             /  21st June 2020

            🙄 loke = like. FiP!

            Reply
          • alloytoo

             /  23rd June 2020

            She’s an opportunist, it’s hip not to be mainstream in the green party.

            I suspect though that her personal relationships are also opportunistic.

            Reply
    • Kimbo

       /  21st June 2020

      Hmm. Must be just me because I was beyond smiley Jacinda stardust before it happened, but judging by the two photos, and trying to put aside my preconceptions about the two politicians and their respective parties

      …Swarbrick looks like an irritatingly naive teenage Polyanna

      …while Kaye is a serious woman auditioning for a serious job.

      But hey, I’m probably at the grumpy/masochistic end of the Bell Curve and (I’m trusting this meets your moderation standards, Pete, because I’m trying to make a serious point about the marketing of political image), I find “resting b*tch face” on the right person very…appealing.😳😂

      But hey, Kaye beat Jacinda Ardern, the new champion of NZ politics twice in Auckland Central, and for all Swarbrick’s strong political abilities, she is not in the Ardern category.

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  21st June 2020

        As I have said here before, when she joined the Greens, Chloe is a smart cookie and very ambitious – one to watch. She’s clawed herself up into the number 3 slot already – ahead of JAG. She’s a political animal; she’s calculating & knows her target voter segment is young & woke. She intends to keep & grow that market if she can.

        Aren’t they debating whether they need male and female co-leaders now?

        Chloe’s not going to be satisfied with a No 3 position for long. She aims for the top. If she can’t get there with the Greens it’ll be time to move on to somewhere she can be at the top.

        Reply
        • I just find her annoying and coming across as conceited.

          That photo looks like an old school photo.

          Reply
          • Gezza

             /  21st June 2020

            Doesn’t matter. You’re not her target market for votes.
            Your her target market for pot shots.

            Reply
            • Kimbo

               /  21st June 2020

              Not sure how far ambition can go in a minor party such as the Greens. Not even “kingmaker” status like Winston Peters, because without the leverage of uncertainty about which major party the Greens will back, they will be a perpetual doormat thrown scraps by Labour to make the Greens look good, but ultimately for Labour’s Government-forming purposes.

              But ok, if aspiring to be leader of the Greens is the ladder Swarbrick is climbing, good luck to her. Would be far more effective, big policy win-wise, if she was a major player in the Labour Party in Government like, say, Megan Woods, Andrew Little or Grant Robertson.

              Unless she thinks, as Turei and Norman we’re pitching in 2014, to supplant Labour as the major player on the left. The Greens will always have a niche, but doubtful it will ever occur during Swarbrick’s political career. And it is too easy for Labour to lock the Greens out in their left wing niche by stealing their policies when it suits.

            • Gezza

               /  21st June 2020

              The Greens are most useful to Ardern & Co when they can be used to take ownership of the more contentious policies that might cost Labour votes. And all done nicely in the best possible…taste! as my esteemed friend Blazer might say.

              Chloe might waka jump or she might take up another job altogether if she fails to get to the top where she is. She’s marketed herself overseas too,

  3. Gezza

     /  21st June 2020

    As I posted yesterday when this news came out, this could get really Catty. Bisexual millenial social media star & liberal young female repeater/reporter darling, vs little Nikki. Should be fun.

    Reply
  4. HW

     /  21st June 2020

    The twitter hashtag of AucklandCentral repeating the Chloe is standing in that electorate story recently knocked Jacinda Ardern off the trending in NZ list which would not make JA nor H1 happy. Normality has resumed today.

    Reply
    • Kimbo

       /  21st June 2020

      …so by that anecdotal evidence you’ve confirmed what we knew: that the Ponsonby/Grey Lynn privileged elite

      1. Are statistically over-represented in the twitteratti nation

      2. And they have too much time on their hands.

      😂

      Reply

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