1 News Colmar Brunton poll – June 2020

The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll – party support:

  • Labour 50% (down from 59)
  • National 38% (up from 29)
  • Greens 6% (up from 4.7)
  • ACT Party 3.1% (up from 2.2)
  • NZ First 1.8% (down from 2.9)
  • Maori Party 0.9%
  • New Conservative 0.7%
  • TOP 0.5%
  • Don’t know/refused 15%

Not surprising to see Labour down from the extraordinary high of the previous poll.

National will be relieved to have recovered from their low.

Greens will be cautiously pleased to be creeping up above the threshold.

ACT are climbing up still and are in a good position for them.

The biggest surprise is a further dip for NZ First to just 1.8%.

Polling was done this week up until and including yesterday, so after last week where there were a lot of Covid quarantine/isolation and testing issues highlighted, but during the ongoing issues this week but barely touching the David Clark versus Ashley Blomfield thing yesterday and last night.

These issues may be partially reflected in this poll.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (down from 63)
  • Todd Muller 13% (up from 0.2)
  • Judith Collins 2% (down from 3)
  • Winston Peters 2% (up from 1)
  • Simon Bridges 0.4% (down from 5)

The poll also asked if they approved or disapproved of the way Todd Muller was handling his job as leader of the National Party.

  • Approved 36%
  • Disapproved 27%
  • Don’t know/refused 37%

That’s not disastrous for Muller after 5 weeks  as leader.

Between June 20 to 24, 2020, 1007 eligible voters were polled by landline (404) and mobile phone (603). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.

Details: https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/national-jumps-in-support-new-leader-labour-still-able-govern-alone-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll

May results: https://www.tvnz.co.nz/content/tvnz/onenews/story/2020/05/21/party.html

Leave a comment

26 Comments

  1. Gezza

     /  25th June 2020

    The most amusing comment from Party leaders:

    Asked about the party’s poor showing in the poll, party leader Winston Peters told 1 NEWS – “your polls are crap…your polls are rubbish…your problem is you don’t have the intellectual capacity to absorb the mistakes of your polling industry.”

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/nz-first-sees-disastrous-poll-result-greens-scrape-above-threshold?auto=6167096858001
    Short Video clip of item embedded.

    Reply
    • The PM must have gone deaf; she didn’t hear questions as she walked to and got onto a bus

      That looked petty and petulant; a response of ‘no comment’ or something like that, no matter how trite. This made her look arrogant and bad-tempered..

      Reply
      • Gezza

         /  25th June 2020

        Wasn’t on tv1.

        Mind you, you never let an opportunity go to criticise her for some pretty mundane things like what she’s wearing or how her hair looks.

        She’s still got plenty of support in the latest poll.

        Personally I think she’s much like Key, smile & wave – but he ran a tight ship.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  25th June 2020

          Slackers like Brownlees, Smith ,Paratabwere given a lot of leeway and yet others were cast off immediately. Even Todd Barclay was given a free run inspite of his damaging actions.
          The one link between all those protected and those pushed out was Bill English support, who himself was a clumsy minister in his early days

          Reply
        • Fight4nz

           /  26th June 2020

          “she’s much like Key, smile & wave – but he ran a tight ship.”
          In a limited way. She doesn’t run a multimillion dollar over shore tax evasion web of accounts (such a fine kiwi bloke). She doesn’t (yet) suffer astonishingly convenient and repeated memory loss. She doesn’t have prime real estate excess to requirements that she can use to grease the palms of her associates with.

          Reply
          • I take it that you have never heard of defamation.

            Accusing someone of tax evasion, which you seem to be doing, is accusing them of a serious crime. If you don’t have evidence, don’t say it.

            The rest is just jealousy of someone else’s success; talk about sour grapes.

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  27th June 2020

              We can’t all have imaginary billionaire friends who drive…minis.

        • The PM walked past the reporters as if they didn’t exist, ignoring their questions. This looked very rude and arrogant and didn’t go down well. It was on 3 news.

          A PM should look the part; unbrushed hair and sloppy clothes do not give someone a professional look.

          Reply
    • Gezza

       /  25th June 2020

      Only two names pop into people’s heads straight away when NZF is mentioned. Winston Peters & Shane Jones.

      Jones might be successful at pretentious big noting & grabbing headlines with contentious outbursts, but he’s been a complete dead loss at achieving anything useful like lots more jobs in the regions under his stewardship of the Provincial Growth fund.

      I wonder to what extent he’s implicated in the loss of poll support for NZF?

      Or is it Peters alone?

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  25th June 2020

        Only 2 features , national has got it’s support back from labour at 9% or so, stealing the kindness mantra has worked, as they knew it would. Muller was connected to the Bolger years and working in big business so they focus grouped a way out of that.
        Other parties are the same as changes are within margin of error for those low numbers.
        Anyone saying NZF has tanked is talking nonsense, as it within margin of error stuff, 1% change.

        Reply
    • Maggy Wassilieff

       /  25th June 2020

      Fabulous..
      Hubby nearly sprayed his mouthful of dinner all over the table when he heard the crap comment.

      Reply
  2. Blazer

     /  25th June 2020

    The poll is quite a predictable one.

    Muller benefitting from an anyone but Bridges bounce.

    Expecting a very close election.
    Be alot more bad economic news by September.

    Reply
  3. Gerrit

     /  25th June 2020

    The critical figure is the 15% that don’t know/undecided. Spread that anyway you chose and it could read Labour 35% , National 53%.

    NNFirst will be out to get the lion share of that 15%.

    Election result is at this point in time, far from certain.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  25th June 2020

      Nonsense. That 15% either won’t vote or split like the rest of the poll. It’s clear you don’t don’t understand the stats behind polling and why they work the way they do, and why in NZ with MMP the polling party vote comes very close to election result. Some say historically.the poll around this time is a close predictor of election result in Sept.

      Reply
    • Gezza

       /  25th June 2020

      Muller has benefitted from Labour’s woes.

      But Woodhouse has overplayed his hand with his seemingly fake homeless man & smug, disingenuous criticism of the Health officials understandable attempts to find & test the guy.
      Muller is backing him with no evidence it’s anything other than a dirty rumour. Labour isn’t going to let this go unless he produces some proof.

      Muller was getting panned until the mess around the border / managed isolation / quarantine shambles turned into a train wreck. We still have no idea what kind of leader he is. He sure doesn’t ooze charisma or seem like he’d be any better as PM than Ardern.

      His best hope is that the train wreck continues.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  25th June 2020

        Will Peters get his revenge for the last election dump of his private super payments and this election private party financial dump?
        Muller and those party cadres MPs who support him may find secret Nats financial data dumped before the election, after all Bridges and Bennett and others have lost out so that some might rise higher. There’s still those magic 2x $100k donations which mysteriously became a series exactly under $15k.

        Reply
        • Gezza

           /  25th June 2020

          Who knows? Only time will tell.

          Meantime, in The House, Labour’s still getting regular mileage (dunno why but that sounds better than kilometreage) out of Muller’s claims that government should be opening up the border to international students from China & letting institutions manage their 14 day isolation.

          Reply
  4. Alan Wilkinson

     /  25th June 2020

    Early days but Muller has benefited from being more aggressive and Labour’s collisions with reality. Blazer is right this time. Reality will keep biting as life after lockdown becomes a struggle.

    Reply
  5. Judy Alvos

     /  27th August 2020

    I do not believe your pols u r dishonest
    We’re is advance NZ
    NZ pp
    Lies 🤣😅

    Reply

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