Newshub/Reid Research poll July 2020

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is great for Labour and terrible for National. which isn’t a surprise after what has happened over the last two weeks.

Greens are just hanging on ov er the threshold, NZ First is still well down in danger territory and ACT will be happy but are not picking up all the support National is shedding.

  • Labour 60.9% (up 4.4)
  • National 25.1% (down 5.5)
  • Greens 5.7% (up 0.2)
  • ACT Party 3.3% (up 1.5)
  • NZ First 2.0% (down 0.7)
  • New Conservatives 0.9% (down 0.1)
  • Maori Party 0.4% (down 0.5)
  • TOP 0.4% (up 0.3)

Newshub: The destruction of National under Judith Collins as party sinks to 25 percent

That’s a stupid but typical headline.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 62% (up 2.5)
  • Judith Collins 14.6% (up 11.5)
  • Simon Bridges 5.5%

Collins is higher than Bridges ever got but still nowhere near challenging Ardern, who looks untouchable at the moment.

Jacinda Ardern still soaring as preferred Prime Minister – but Judith Collins is convinced she’ll win

The latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll was conducted between 16-24 July 2020. One thousand people were surveyed, 700 by telephone including both landlines and mobiles and 300 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

Jacinda Ardern:

  • Performing well 85.3%
  • Performing poorly 8.2%

It would take a miracle to stop Ardern (aka Labour) from romping in this election. The only query seems to be at this stage whether they will be able to form a government on their own or not.

Judith Collins:

  • Performing well 39.5%
  • Performing poorly 30.8%

Last poll Bridges 21.6% thought bridges was performing well and 59.5% thought he was performing poorly. Collins is doing much better than thatt but National MPs have let the party down badly.

This is grim for Collins but National has had a series of crises that can’t be blamed on her. Bridges was doing badly, Todd Muller made things worse.

Leave a comment

23 Comments

  1. Patzcuaro

     /  26th July 2020

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11994559

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  26th July 2020

      Good catch Patz
      “Once things start getting under 35 per cent people start saying ‘can we win?’ And I know I am putting a mark up there which at some stage in the future, if I am successful this time, that people will say ‘well, you set that mark.”

      “Yep, let me set that mark.”

      Reply
  2. Duker

     /  26th July 2020

    The destruction of National under Judith Collins as party sinks to 25 percent

    Isn’t Collins the one who loves that sort of language ….crush..destroy etc.
    We’ll miss nasty pants it’s come back to bite you

    PG you liked to rubbish NZF and Peters when they come out to pohing the poll numbers …well guess who saying it’s a rougue poll…etc etc
    We were in same place when the first polls afterlockdown showed Bridges and Nats were in mid 30s… Can’t be right they said but other polls were same or worse.
    Clearly other than their core vote the rest have stopped listening …
    At the rate they are going they could be back to 21% just like 2002
    Why not the billboards still say strong team without any connection to reality

    Reply
  3. David Farrar trying hard to minimise the bad publicity in Latest poll:

    I do not believe this poll is even close to reflecting the actual situation. There is no way there is a 36% gap between the parties. The numerous polls I have seen and done have it way way closer.

    https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/07/latest_poll-77.html

    You need to be careful with polls taken during such rapidly changing times, but this is a pig of a poll for National and there is no lipstick.

    The other thing worth noting is that no party has ever got over 50% in an election in the past 69 years.

    People keep saying that – but at no time in the last 169 years has the country been dealing relatively successfully with a major pandemic with probably the most popular Prime Minister ever in charge.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  26th July 2020

      Notice how he couldn’t even give the number 25%….. He just had the spread….
      Could mean yes national is in the high 20s but labour isn’t as high as RR.
      Watch what he doesn’t say to get at the (half) truth

      So tell us David , is National under 30% , instead of the waffle you give instead to avoid the big question

      Reply
    • Corky

       /  26th July 2020

      Fanatics always have trouble accepting reality. They can’t get their heads around what is happening.

      Reply
      • Blazer

         /  27th July 2020

        Well Mikey says keep calm and carry on…its a rogue poll an outlier…..He’s not one of these fanatics you describe….is he?

        Reply
  4. duperez

     /  26th July 2020

    Paul Goldsmith will be high on National’s list so he’ll be back and won’t have to fight for an electorate win. That will ensure Act is back with a handful of MPs. Desperation from Goldsmith and his party needing for him to win that seat would’ve been a most interesting battle.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  26th July 2020

      Don’t know about that…. 25% and they could have no list seats at all because of their more numerous electorate seats …they could dven be in overhang territory.
      Remember they have 41 electorates from last election, while in a swing that big they won’t keep them all. It’s not going to be good news for most of list Mps

      Reply
      • Fight4nz

         /  26th July 2020

        You have to wonder why National would sacrifice Epsom in these circumstances? A coalition partner is of absolutely no use, just throwing another of their MPs under the bus.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  27th July 2020

          Its too late to change the scenery in Epsom which includes making Goldsmith invisible, and he is. Either way its strong local ACT vote means they would keep the seat even if Goldsmith put up some billboards
          remember they got the seat originally by winning from National when ACT was well over 5%.

          Reply
  5. Kimbo

     /  26th July 2020

    As I’ve posted elsewhere, given National’s recent incompetence – 3 leaders in less than two months, and Boag/Walker and Falloon (none of which were of Collins’ doing, btw) – this is a fair poll result and a good reminder of the mountain they have to climb.

    But Collins or not, this will always be Ardern’s election to lose.

    Reply
  6. Patzcuaro

     /  26th July 2020

    If ACT starts surging in the polls and National continues to slide, Seymour might decide to step aside in Epsom and gift an electorate to National just in case they fail to get over the 5% threshold.

    Reply
  7. Corky

     /  26th July 2020

    Excellent poll for National…Labour has started down the road to perdition. Next year RIGHTIES will be saying( even the atheist ones), there but for the grace of God go us.↩

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  27th July 2020

      I thought you were saying 6 months ago the chickens will come home come election time and the downturn will mean National will surge back ( or similar)

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  27th July 2020

        Yes, I did say that. For once you have a good memory and aren’t spinning. The problem is two fold. See if you can work it out? If you can’t I will explain it to you.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  27th July 2020

          I always thought September rather than November election was likely a life saver for Labour. They could spray free money for that long and have done so.

          Reply
    • Blazer

       /  27th July 2020

      At least Simon Bridges has finally managed….a winning..smile!

      Reply
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