Election prospects

Recent polls show a large separation between Labour and National. The latest, Newshub/Reid Research poll July 2020, continues this trend, although it has been claimed to be an outlier by National campaign manager Gerry Brownlee and party pollster David Farrar – see Latest poll.

But any way you look at the polls, they look great for Labour and awful for National.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

While it’s difficult to predict what may eventuate given the eventful past few months, here’s some thoughts on party prospects.

Labour

I doubt they will get as high as current polling around 60%, but if they keep chugging away without doing anything wrong (they haven’t started campaigning yet) I think they could easily get 45-55%.

At this stage Labour seem to be being rewarded for Jacinda Ardern’s success and popularity particularly on the back of her handling of the Covid pandemic and despite an otherwise underwhelming term (with CGT, Kiwibuild and light rail notable failures).

Some keep saying that no party has got greater than 50% in any election in the last 69 years, but these are extraordinary times, dealing relatively successfully (so far) with the worst pandemic in a hundred years, and having one of the most popular Prime Ministers ever.

So a one party government shouldn’t be ruled out this time, unless enough voters decide they don’t want to go there.

But it looks almost certain it is just a matter of how much Labour will win by, and it could be by a large margin.

If Labour get enough votes to have a majority on their own and Greens get back in I think Labour would probably include Greens in a governing arrangement, but that would be a very senior versus junior relationship.

Green Party

The Greens are hanging in just above the threshold in the polls but often struggle to get as much as they are polling in elections, so they are at real risk of missing the threshold and getting dumped out. Labour’s popularity is not leaving many left wing votes for the Greens.

Greens have earnest but weak leadership with their dual leader model and with who they have as leaders.

I think they are looking at the 4-7% range but will have to work hard to beat the threshold, and perhaps hope that Labour sheds some support their way.

ACT Party

Act are benefiting from a fairly good term from leader David Seymour, especially his success at getting the End of Life Choice to referendum, and targeting single issue groups like the gun lobby.

They should improve on the last two elections and get multiple MPs into Parliament, and get somewhere in the region of 2-6% with quite a bit depending on how badly National do as they will be picking up support from the right that National are leaking.

NZ First

People keep warning that you can never write off Winston Peters, with some justification, but Peters and NZ First have already been dumped, in 2008 after a term in Government.

Peters is looking jaded and desperate, trying to campaign on the old days and on stopping the Government from doing things.

He played the coalition negotiations well in 2017, demanding centre stage, and he thought as senior statesmen he would look like the virtual Prime Minister, but thanks to her efforts dealing with the mosque killings, the Whakaari eruption and the current pandemic she has outperformed Peters by a large margin.

Shane Jones does not look popular with anyone but himself and doesn’t seem to be helping. He could rescue NZ First if he wins the Northland electorate, but he has never won an electorate and looks lost already.

Unless Peters benefits from some sort of Labour disaster he looks like becoming a political fossil.

NZ First are looking like somewhere in the 1-5% range and could sneak in but more on the lower side of that at this stage.

National

Polls are looking dire for National, and are their election chances. They are on their third leader this year, and MPs disgracing themselves or deserting have dragged them down.

New leader Judith Collins seems to be being punished for the failure of predecessors Simon Bridges and Todd Muller, and the exposure of disgraceful behaviour of MPs, in particular Hamish Walker and Andrew Falloon, plus the late withdrawal from the election of several senior MPs.

Collins may do well in the campaign and leaders’ debates and lift them a bit, or voters may give up on National. It’s hard to predict what they will get, but it could be anywhere in the 20-40% range. It’s almost certain they will be a distant second to Labour.

Other Parties

Small parties have found it increasingly difficult to establish themselves or survive. At this stage none of the other parties look likely to come close to getting in, including ex National MP Jamie-Lee Ross. The Maori Party look to be a lost cause.

Leave a comment

20 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  27th July 2020

    Depressing. NZ is in for a 4 year lockdown.

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  27th July 2020

      It worries me what new taxes Labour will instigate after the election? And should they go into coalition with the Greens, what concessions will they give them? Without the old dog Winston there to apply the brakes, we could be looking at major economic damage on top of what Covid is already wreaking

      Reply
      • NOEL

         /  27th July 2020

        Some I know said they choose NZ First as a block to the Greens. Interesting the are really undecided this time. I anticipate an increase in unfilled ballots

        Reply
      • Blazer

         /  27th July 2020

        National have signalled big tax increases are required to fund their plans and the debt blow out.

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  27th July 2020

          Crikey, I’m missing all the news. Any links?

          Reply
          • Probably not.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  27th July 2020

              Hidden until after the votes counted is the National method.
              happened with the GST increase
              happened with the 9c+ GST petrol tax increase, which also was spread over 3 years

            • Corky

               /  27th July 2020

              My suggestion is start spinning for Labour. They are going to need it.

            • Duker

               /  27th July 2020

              Just like the civil unrest you predicted too
              Or the massive unemployment you predicted
              Oh that’s right….you live a bubble cut off from reality,…we all can’t predict the future but your speciality was the never likely predictions

  2. Corky

     /  27th July 2020

    I think you have basically nailed it, Pete.

    I don’t want to see Righties whining and becoming nasty after the election. We need to take our lumps like men, then crawl away to our hot tubs and drink a little cognac in the sound knowledge that nothing lasts forever.

    Reply
  3. David

     /  27th July 2020

    I am hoping Ardern is secretly with child and we have another 3 years of announcements of things and nothing much of their agenda gets done as she again focuses elsewhere.
    Busy productive governments can be costly.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  27th July 2020

      What we will get is an ever increasing proportion of the population working for the government directly, indirectly as contractors, professionals serving the administration of all-encompassing regulations or for selected crony capitalists enjoying de facto government monopolies or oligopolies.

      There will be continuing declines in innovation, enterprise and per capita incomes and wealth.

      Sad.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  27th July 2020

        You have just described the economic systems of all wealthy western countries Wilco which is operates mostly on a services model.
        Just the same if you need a taxi you call on Bluebubble or Uber, if you need to ‘isolate’ arriving travellers you contract with private hotel owners, private security firms and Geneva agency nurses and presto an overnight system, even though private based is inefficient and barely above a shambles.
        ( Melbourne even found the security contractors subcontracted the work to others as once the price is set money can only be made by lowering standards and having no supervision)

        In addition China showed you could build wealth based on state capitalism model all persuasive…even local councils are into the owning local factories and such.
        Wilco seems to think the Cambodian/Nigerian model of free enterprise will bring riches to all.. by serving best of all the minor capitalists like himself

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  27th July 2020

          Our productivity decline is relative to the rest of the world. We do it better.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  27th July 2020

            Yes. We have done much better without rogernomics
            Douglas never really knew anything, just he thought going with flow overseas would be good for his career

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  27th July 2020

              Our productivity per capita has declined substantially relative to the rest of the world.

            • Duker

               /  27th July 2020

              How can you measure productivity for tourism or overseas student education or many others.
              In some yes, in housing we have a mostly bespoke housing by small builders , the kitchens are unique, the bathrooms, the windows are all unique ..this isn’t the high end homes it’s at the middle and lower end as well. Years ago I was a mazed how cost effective a standard Italian kitchen imported to NZ was compared to a run of the mill NZ made one in melamine and that chip board stuff.

    • Blazer

       /  27th July 2020

      ‘ is secretly with child ‘……its called being pregnant these days David.
      Btw Queen Victoria is long …gone..old fruit!

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  27th July 2020

        Apparently Key and English never had young children so could focus …or something. Begs the question how did Judith manage a young family , a law career specializing in taxation and restaurant…. those pesky kids that fathers shouldnt have bother themselves about

        Reply
  4. Duker

     /  27th July 2020

    Interesting commentary on rogue polls- from a professional , a Stats professor) not an ex woodwork teacher like Brownlee
    “In a mathematically perfect world, given a very large number of opinion polls each sampling 1000 people, 19 out of 20 will get within 3% of the true support for a major party, and one out of 20 won’t, with the one out of 20 typically being off by just a little more than 3%

    So a true rogue poll is only a bit more than 3% margin of error.

    A look at the poll results for National shows the 38% result back in June a month ago was the outlier

    Here’s a plot of all the published NZ polling results this year, with two trend lines. The blue line is a standard robust smoother (called lowess), which will try to ignore rogue points; the black line is the same smoother with the robustness turned off.
    https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/27-07-2020/brownlee-says-national-is-the-victim-of-a-rogue-poll-can-that-really-be-true/

    So complete nonsense being said by former woodwork teacher …who would have Farrar whispering in his ear.
    Collins has gone full retard just saying its ‘False’

    Reply

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