National’s support “much closer to 40 per cent”

After Newshub published their latest Reid Research poll on Sunday, which had National on 25.1% and Labour on 60.9%, National have been working hard to talk up their numbers.

David Farrar (who does National’s private polling) in Latest poll:

I do not believe this poll is even close to reflecting the actual situation. There is no way there is a 36% gap between the parties. The numerous polls I have seen and done have it way way closer.

Leader Judith Collins: Judith Collins to reveal internal polling to National Party

National leader Judith Collins has promised to release the party’s internal polling to her own MPs tomorrow to prove last night’s poll was an outlier.

Speaking from the campaign trail in Palmerston North, Collins told reporters she felt “very strongly” that the results were “clearly false”.

“I’ve obviously seen our polling, but I’ve also seen what’s happening out in our electorates,” Collins said.

The party’s internal polling had National’s support much closer to 40 percent, Collins said.

“Much closer to percent” than 25 is going to be some where in the 30s. I would guess somewhere in the mid thirties. This is still quite bad for National and not something I’d have thought they wanted promoted.

Collins and Gerry Brownlee have taken a risk making a big deal out of disputing this latest poll result, and claiming their own normally secret poll is much better.

It seems that Colmar Brunton is polling at the moment and based on last releases that may come out ion Thursday. If that’s in the thirties for National Collins may feel vindicated in disputing the latest poll, but if it’s under thirty that puts further pressure on her.

The chances of two ‘rogue polls’ in a week must be slim. National has had problems with rogue MPs that are likely to have dragged their support down.

And there is a bigger problem – even if Labour is closer to 50% than 60% that is still a huge lead.


RNZ are reporting National’s internal poll result as 36% for National and ‘near 50%’ for Labour. But with no details such as sample ize and polling period it’s hard to make a direct comparison. And of course National’s poll could be the outlier.

So that is:

  • Labour 50%
  • National 36%
  • Greens 6%
  • ACT Party 3%
  • NZ First 3%

Still no indication of the polling period (except apparently two sets of numbers/periods).

Leave a comment

27 Comments

  1. duperez

     /  28th July 2020

    A poll is a poll. It reflects what those polled have said.

    David Farrar thinks the latest poll isn’t even close to ‘reflecting the actual situation.’

    Is his bog site in the business of ‘reflecting the actual situation’ of the world? Does it create impressions that quite clearly do not reflect the actual situation? Some of his contributors have it that the present political leadership in New Zealand is in the style of the extreme totalitarian states. Ardern = Stalin.

    Maybe by an accident the poll has struck a rich vein of the deluded and the actual situation isn’t reflected. Then again if by accident the sewer of the punters on that site were tapped by the same poll would results have been dismissed by him as ‘not reflecting the actual situation’ or a triumph of the masterful leadership of Judith Collins?

    Reply
  2. Blazer

     /  28th July 2020

    I think National should reinstate Bridges as leader .
    His party poll numbers indicated the Nats were competitive.
    You know it makes….sense.

    Reply
  3. Duker

     /  28th July 2020

    Last months Colmar Brunton poll with National at 38 was outlier. Contrary to “Mr Polls” Gerry Brownlee, a rouge poll or the 1 in 20 that is ‘out’ would only be a small amount , say 4-5% at most if margin of error is 3.5%

    “Here’s a plot of all the published NZ polling results this year, with two trend lines. The blue line is a standard robust smoother (called lowess), which will try to ignore rogue points; the black line is the same smoother with the robustness turned off.” – Prof Lumley , via Spinoff

    What National is really scared of is that donations dry up…will the National Foundation be called in to ‘help out’
    One of the results of low cashflow is the begging bowl put out by Farrar as Im sure amount of polls asked for by National is reduced

    Reply
  4. Blazer

     /  28th July 2020

    All the polls are now ‘rouge’ polls….Red is smashing Blue! 🙂

    Reply
  5. Alan Wilkinson

     /  28th July 2020

    Collins has to rebuild from scratch. Takes time and she doesn’t have much. Also the Govt has billions to smother problems with until the election and will do so. Odds are heavily on Labour at present. Sad because they are basically ideologically and practically stupid.

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  28th July 2020

      What a load of drivel…even for you Al.
      National Party membership is strong.
      The polls reflect just who is ….’ideologically and practically stupid.’.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  28th July 2020

        No they don’t. They reflect inconsistency and division and several random idiots hitting the headlines. The Left is consistently ideologically and practically stupid rendering them incapable of achieving anything except spending money and stopping people doing things. You love that.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  28th July 2020

          Spending money ?
          Then how come NZ went from $20 bill gross debt under Key and English to almost $90 bill. Cut income tax but continued spending is how they did that- the theory was trickle down would raise all incomes.
          This is not the 1970s NZ you seem to be stuck in…to think you are the last Muldoonist standing from that era

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  28th July 2020

            Labour should achieve that in one disastrous term on current forecasts, self-inflicted:

            Reply
          • Corky

             /  28th July 2020

            Debt went up under Key because he was borrowing to keep you in the lifestyle you had become accustomed to. Then there was that big social welfare spend-up to help the comrades out. Not very Tory-like if you ask me.

            Alan is right. Labour are a talentless lot who are at a loss to know what to do next. Opening our bubble up to the Islands is a great example of their indecision and ineptitude.

            Reply
          • Trevors_elbow

             /  28th July 2020

            Please… structural spending put in place by Cullen not slashed when GFC hit…means deficits that need funding. Should English have slashed spending and to hell with the consequences?
            This stupid meme is run by Lefties all the time ‘Key borrowed’….tell me what All Knowing Duker would have done instead of maintaining government expenditure in 2008 onwards? Raised taxes and tanked an economy already in recession?

            Reply
            • Blazer

               /  28th July 2020

              Aw gawd…the return of Trevor…do you think cutting taxes while borrowing is a smart approach to economic management/?

        • duperez

           /  28th July 2020

          Are you saying AW that since the 1930s we’ve been in a boom/bust cycle of people doing things when National governments were in and stopped from doing things when other lots were in? (Accepting no doubt that if people were doing stuff when Labour was in it was down to overhang and dribbling from the preceding good spell?

          Reply
          • They are not opening up travel to the Pacific Islands, despite the fact that neither they nor we have any community transmission; the excuses are increasingly feeble.

            Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  28th July 2020

            Mostly but not always, dups. Muldoon was more socialist than Douglas. Upton was more stupidly naive with the RMA. Key ran with the anti-smacking law that has wrecked schoolroom management. But excluding Douglas’s first term it’s all one way traffic to more regulation with Labour.

            Reply
  6. Gezza

     /  28th July 2020

    It COULD be a rogue result, but no one knows how off the mark it was until more polls come out. Collins was always seen as a risky choice for National leader because, in my view anyway, of fears that she’s got bad political baggage & is associated with a nasty political style, whether National supporters like that or not.

    She’s not said or done anything since her elevation to the leadership to suggest that she’d be a good PM. Accusing the PM of knowing about ILG’s affair while saying that she herself didn’t was unnecessary & really dumb, imo. There’s no evidence been produced to support that. And she’s quite widely suspected of engineering Ardern into an awkward no-win situation, imo.

    It looks like her strategy lately is to try & provoke Ardern into schoolyard-type slanging matches. Can’t see this happening. Ardern’s got to stay on the straight & narrow path she’s carved out as her image.

    While I was prepared to wait & see what Collins’ “style” as leader was going to be like, she already seems to be performing to the type that those concerned about her were worried about & that may make simply make her (& thus National) unpopular with those other than hard core National voters.

    I’m finding the things she says & some of the quips she makes strange & uncomfortable to watch. Trying too hard to be funny stuff. It’s only funny if you like her. If you don’t, or you don’t know, they’re not funny – they’re odd. The media, & tv3 especially, are roasting her over these already.

    I’m now waiting for the next poll like everyone else is, & to see what else she comes out with.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  28th July 2020

      We do know the outlier poll , the last Colmar Brunton one at 38%, the graph of the previous numbers clearly shows that. But trends can rise.

      As for ‘not Collins fault ?? She was in the top 5 of both Bridges and Muller team- that STRONG team , remember

      Good points about Collins. as Ive noted she is the right wing version of Hilary Clinton, been around for ages, comes with baggage , only loved by the partisan base, with even stronger dislike by those on the opposite partisans.
      Anyway I have a feeling she wont be focus grouping her way to polling day that Key especially would do.
      She is what she is and will stick with that

      Reply
  7. She is putting the nasty little Tova O’Brien in her place. Tova asks really silly questions, like the smart-arse child in the classroom trying to put one over on Miss and failing.

    If the PM had no idea about the ILG and other sex scandals (Youth Camp and the Party allegations that the PM didn’t know about although they had been in the press and on the news for some time) it doesn’t say much for her awareness of what’s going on in her party. Her stock answer seems to be that she ‘was unaware of that’, even when it’s been on the news every night for two weeks and in the papers ditto.

    Reply
  8. Duker

     /  28th July 2020

    JC has started on doubling down on her falsehoods
    Judith Collins says she was ‘joking’ when falsely saying no one escaped while she was Corrections Minister

    “Asked how exactly the joke was funny, Collins suggested that a reporter “bone up on your comedy skills”.

    Watch all the usual suspects here ‘twist and shout’ to try and deflect, again after like the earlier one about being ‘cleared over claims maid in Hagers book’
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300067642/election-2020-judith-collins-says-she-was-joking-when-falsely-saying-no-one-escaped-while-she-was-corrections-minister

    Reply
    • duperez

       /  28th July 2020

      Maybe it proves that Collins is a great leader. Great leaders like Donald Trump often make jokes that people don’t get. There you go, Donald and Judith. Maybe in his next term when she’s PM she can invite him out here to play golf. Get the eyebrows there? I was just kidding.

      Reply
  9. RNZ are reporting National’s internal poll result as 36% for National and ‘near 50%’ for Labour. But with no details such as sample ize and polling period it’s hard to make a direct comparison. And of course National’s poll could be the outlier.

    Reply

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