Curia part polls released

National have ‘leaked’ partial poll information from their internal pollster to try to battle against the publicity of a bad (for them) Reid Research poll that had National on 25.1% and Labour on 60.9%.

David Farrar, whose Curia company does National’s polling, claimed on Kiwiblog Latest poll:

I do not believe this poll is even close to reflecting the actual situation. There is no way there is a 36% gap between the parties. The numerous polls I have seen and done have it way way closer.

A funy thing on Kiwiblog is a now out of date poll average that isn’t a lot different to the Reid Research result:

Judith Collins got Farrar to present some poll details to the National caucus yesterday and ok’d the leaking of some details, but has been sparing with what she has revealed. From RNZ – Judith Collins on polling criticism …

National released its polling to MPs yesterday, and Collins told Morning Report that the results were “close to” 47 percent and 36 percent, presumably in favour of Labour.

“We poll every week and we look at the rolling average over three weeks, we also look at daily things but I’m not going to give you exact numbers. But it’s not out of the ballpark, that one.”

She said the polling was done at the name time as the Newshub-Reid Research Poll, and claimed that recent polls were “even better”.

“We poll every single week so we know where we are polling.”

Asked why she was trashing the Newshub poll, she said: “Because it deserves to be trashed actually. What we’ve got is it can’t be a reasonable poll when we are hearing about the push polling of ‘do you agree that Jacinda Ardern is the saviour of New Zealand economy’ … I am very happy to trash that poll.

No exact numbers, and absent any detail in mainly meaningless.

It doesn’t help that there are different numbers coming out.

But:

(On their website Lobby New Zealand describe themselves as “a centre right to right wing lobby group in New Zealand. We usually align with Christian, Conservative values” and refer to ‘Our Beliefs’ but they don’t say who they are.)

Again two poll numbers with no details means very little.

So is the Reid Research poll an outlier (sometimes called a rogue poll)? Statistically 1 on 20 polls can fall outside the margin on error of +/- 3-4%. But Curia could be the outlier. Or they could both be fair measures of opinion if the polling periods differed – last week National lurched from bad news to worse news.

Why is Collins dragging out bad poll news? All I can think of is she is trying to influence responses in the next public poll – apparently Colmar Brunton are currently polling, which likely means up until today and released on 1 News tomorrow night.


UPDATE: Newshub refutes claim highlighted by Judith Collins about ‘push polling’

When asked about the poll results on The AM Show on Wednesday, Collins continued her attack.

“I was really shocked with the Reid Research poll that you guys put out. I’ll tell you why, it wasn’t just those numbers,” she told The AM Show.

“It’s to find out that one of the question –  first questions –  asked was ‘Do you agree that Jacinda Ardern is the saviour of New Zealand?’ That is push-polling and that’s part of the evidence I have that this poll was completely nonsense.”

Collins went on to say she had two reports from people polled that question was “asked early on and they felt that that was absolutely about pushing a particular line”.

Newshub’s Director of News Sarah Bristow responded on Wednesday afternoon, saying: “We refute any claims of push polling and absolutely stand behind the methodology of the Newshub-Reid Research polls”. 

She said party polling questions were asked first, followed by topical questions.

Reid Research’s managing director Ngaire Reid said the “same scientific methodology” had been used for more than 10 years. 

Another day making dubious accusations and highlighting a bad poll result.

Leave a comment

20 Comments

  1. lurcher1948

     /  29th July 2020

    You get the results you want, when you pay for it

    Reply
    • Yes, I’d say that the ones which show Labour in a good light are an indication of that.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  29th July 2020

        Before the last election they werent so good for Labour either…. your point is?
        They are indpendent , not like Farrars polls, paid for by National.
        They dont even give equivalent numbers instead have ‘averaged over some weeks’…. could well be even more ‘photoshopped’ than a online influencer

        Reply
  2. Duker

     /  29th July 2020

    “Statistically 1 on 20 polls can fall outside the margin on error of +/- 3-4%.”

    yes , but the statistics say the “1 in 20” its only a small amount out of the margin of error, say 5% or so
    So we can see The Nats trying to mislead by using the 1 in 20 ‘rule’ . Farrars lively hood depends on him saying things that suit those paying him.

    This is a graph done by a Stats professor with lines showing a standard smoothing

    This clearly shows last months Colmar Brunton result of 38% for Nats is the outlier ( not rogue result)…. this the number National says its closer to its ‘polling’

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/27-07-2020/brownlee-says-national-is-the-victim-of-a-rogue-poll-can-that-really-be-true/

    Reply
  3. duperez

     /  29th July 2020

    Look down on the little polls fuss and assess what there is to see?

    A number of people crapping themselves about the results and David Farrar riding in with some sort of anti-diarrheal.

    I wonder if Dr Farrar will tell them that it’s pretty certain that every snide Judith Collins comment and appearance is a laxative to the troops.

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  29th July 2020

      Polls just show what is, not what will be. For that you need brains.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  29th July 2020

        Better minds than yours has have observed from previous elections the trends are obvious by this stage

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  29th July 2020

          So have worse.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  29th July 2020

            NZ elections old friend…. we have the party vote to decide the number of MPs, which just so happens to be exactly the question the polls use.
            No need to regional differences for electorates, or electoral colleges etc.

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  29th July 2020

              Yes, People change their minds. A week is a long time in politics.

              And brains need to be brought to bear on the real problems as well as perceptions in order to create change.

            • Duker

               /  29th July 2020

              Brains ? certainly not the ideologues and ACT and their fellow traveelors
              this was the result of the dynamic duo- Roger and Ruth

              Even during our current troubles we wont be getting to 10% or more like they did in the early 90s

            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  29th July 2020

              Already have half the working age population on a benefit or 80% wage subsidy.

  4. UPDATE: Newshub refutes claim highlighted by Judith Collins about ‘push polling’

    When asked about the poll results on The AM Show on Wednesday, Collins continued her attack.

    “I was really shocked with the Reid Research poll that you guys put out. I’ll tell you why, it wasn’t just those numbers,” she told The AM Show.

    “It’s to find out that one of the question –  first questions –  asked was ‘Do you agree that Jacinda Ardern is the saviour of New Zealand?’ That is push-polling and that’s part of the evidence I have that this poll was completely nonsense.”

    Collins went on to say she had two reports from people polled that question was “asked early on and they felt that that was absolutely about pushing a particular line”.

    Newshub’s Director of News Sarah Bristow responded on Wednesday afternoon, saying: “We refute any claims of push polling and absolutely stand behind the methodology of the Newshub-Reid Research polls”. 

    She said party polling questions were asked first, followed by topical questions.

    Reid Research’s managing director Ngaire Reid said the “same scientific methodology” had been used for more than 10 years. 

    Another day making dubious accusations and highlighting a bad poll result.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  29th July 2020

      Shes Into the fake news territory.
      “i heard from someone” wouldnt even get a look in on Yournz.

      Bridges had the same counter lines when they showed the numbers under 40%, then other polls came out with similar and then around 30%…. he was then gone within days in a ‘revolt of the cadres’ who were completey unprepared for the job.

      Collins just as unprepared, she wont crack under the strain but is flailing and getting into the fake news trap which means she loses all credibility….but its all the medias/pollsters fault apparently.

      Reply
    • duperez

       /  29th July 2020

      I have only been polled a couple of times. Just yesterday I was explaining to the plumber one such event a couple of years ago. I was surprised by some of the questions and their wording. I just found out that what I experienced has a name – ‘push-polling.’

      The polling company was Curia.

      Reply
    • Anon

       /  29th July 2020

      Is it a dubious accusation? Why? Newshub doesn’t appear to deny that they asked “Do you think Jacinda is our saviour? “ and that’s ok? Elect Jacinda she is your Saviour!?Bizarre.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  29th July 2020

        It’s not newshub poll..it’s Reid Research, who do deny the claims Collins made…we can’t see how high her eyebrows were to see if she was ‘joking’

        Reply
        • Anon

           /  29th July 2020

          It is described as the “Newshub-Reid research poll.” So it is a newshub poll. Newshub Sarah Bristow responded on Wednesday afternoon, saying: “We refute any claims of push polling and absolutely stand behind the methodology of the Newshub-Reid Research polls”. She’s also not denying that they asked the question Jacinda the saviour question . She just reckons it’s not push polling because she puts the question second. It’s still bizarre and leading questions from our media company. Our leader our saviour! Remind me what country are we in again?

          Reply
  5. PartisanZ

     /  31st July 2020

    Based on Shane Jones NOT winning Northland …

    Good call!!!

    Reply

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