Colmar Brunton poll – July 2020

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 53% (up 2)
  • National 32% (down 6)
  • Greens 5% (down 1)
  • ACT 4.8% (up 1.7)
  • NZ First 2 (up 0.2)
  • New Conservatives 1.2%
  • Maori Party 1%
  • Don’t know/refused 14%

Still obviously very good for Labour.

Bad for National but nowhere near as bad as the Reid Research poll (25%). They could improve more from there but look a long way off challenging Labour.

Probably at National’s expense ACT are in a very good place for them.

Greens are still hovering around the threshold which for them having no electorates is high risk.

Further evidence that voters are giving up on Winston Peters and his party.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (no change)
  • Judith Collins 20% (up 18)
  • Winston Peters 1% (down 1)
  • David Seymour 1% (up 0.2)
  • Christopher Luxon 1%
  • Billy Te Kahika 1%

That’s a fairly good result for Collins considering how bad National has been over the last few weeks, and how uneven her performance has been.

On trust:

  • Jacinda Ardern: yes 82%, no 16% = +68
  • David Seymour: yes 48%, no 36% = +12%
  • Judith Collins: yes 47%, no 45% = +2
  • James Shaw: yes 47%, no 31% = +16
  • Marama Davidson: yes 44%, no 34% = +10
  • Winston Peters: yes 34%, no 59% = -25

Judith Collins: Approve 50%, Disapprove 23 = +27
– Todd Muller got +10 in June 2020, Simon bridges -40 in May 2020

Polling was done from Saturday 25th to Wednesday 29th July.

More details will come out in while.

Leave a comment

32 Comments

  1. Corky

     /  30th July 2020

    Has Winston anything left in his bag of tricks? I think not, except absolute bizarre behaviour. He knows he won’t be back should he lose. What will he do? Barry Crump asked himself the same question just before he passed on. Both NZ1 and National are reaping just rewards for not supporting gun owners…excellent.

    *** NZ has 300,000 licensed firearm owners.

    My dream scenario: Labour governing alone..with the Greens and NZ1 gone.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  30th July 2020

      Silly. If those 300k gun owners were even considering voting as a block, Act would be 15%.
      It’s like smacking laws from a decade ago…the law changes are settled and done..the general public wanted it and now want to move on.
      The 2% that might be wanting it to change have a teensy weensy problem …can guess what it is.?

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  30th July 2020

        ”Silly. If those 300k gun owners were even considering voting as a block, Act would be 15%.”

        Yeah, I think you are right. I would never have guessed.

        ”It’s like smacking laws from a decade ago…the law changes are settled and done..the general public wanted it and now want to move on.”

        The general public didn’t want it. Key muzzled National MPs who wanted to vote against it.
        Gun owners have a different mentality to other community members. Some of us will never give up our guns and will vote for anyone prepared to support our rights. By the way many parents still give the kids a good smack. There are certain offences that the naughty chair
        won’t remediate.

        ”The 2% that might be wanting it to change have a teensy weensy problem …can guess what it is.”

        As usual you miss the point. It’s not about change…it’s about supporting those who stood up for us..and punishing the wankers who knee jerk straight into legislation. We will have to wait a year or two for utu to be served on Labour.

        Reply
        • Fight4nz

           /  30th July 2020

          Support your rights? Since when is gun ownership a right?
          You can still legally own guns anyway, where’s the problem?

          Reply
          • Corky

             /  31st July 2020

            The problem is they want us to hand in our semi autos. We should all have a right to defend ourselves. When the government does not give us that right, we give ourselves said right, just like gangs and the governments.

            Meanwhile on the streets of South Auckland….

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  31st July 2020

              You can defend yourself …with the calibre of your choice as long as its not semi auto.
              Anyway self defence isnt a valid reason for even having a gun license at all and would probably be declined

            • Corky

               /  31st July 2020

              ”You can defend yourself …with the calibre of your choice as long as its not semi auto.”

              Not true…and then you contradict yourself.

              ”Anyway self defense isn’t a valid reason for even having a gun license at all and would probably be declined.’

              Contradiction aside, you are right. Our government would prefer us dead rather than give us the right to defend ourselves with a gun.

            • Fight4nz

               /  31st July 2020

              A NZ government obviously derives its rights through democratic and legal processes.
              Since gun owners do not you are saying you equate with the gangs. Well, we know what we are dealing with then.

            • Corky

               /  31st July 2020

              There’s much I could say in reply to your comments. I will simplify things and use just one word: Intent.

  2. Gezza

     /  30th July 2020

    Newshub surprised me by briefly citing the CB party & preferred PM numbers.

    Reply
  3. Duker

     /  30th July 2020

    Colmar Brunton had a series of polls Aug Sept last election had some polls with labour leading national ..
    Farrar ran an interference campaign at that time to discredit the methodolgy and the results…sound familiar as he has done the same this time except it’s RR..I guess he will continue with any polls that are under 30%
    I expect other diversions to happen over the next 2 months from national….but they don’t own the narratives like they used to

    Reply
  4. Trevors_elbow

     /  30th July 2020

    82 percent trust Ms Ardern….. statues of Mother Mary are shedding tears across the planet.
    As trustworthy as a fox in a hen house….

    Reply
    • Charlotte

       /  30th July 2020

      Yes indeed. We have time. Nzpp has only jsut hit the scene and already featuring here!!

      Reply
  5. Blazer

     /  30th July 2020

    Dry your eyes Trevor…..you are part of the 18%…btw who do you…trust?

    Reply
  6. Alan Wilkinson

     /  30th July 2020

    Nats will be happy with that after the Reid poll. If it stayed like that till the election the Greens would probably be safe as some Labour votes would swing their way.

    Plenty of work needed till the election.

    Reply
  7. Petra

     /  30th July 2020

    BILLY…. ALL THE WAY… ADVANCENZ-NZPP COMING TO TAKE IT 👊💯❤️

    Reply
  8. Ruth Clark

     /  30th July 2020

    Please include Advance NZ Public Party in your polls next time. It is a rapidly growing movement that has more members than the major parties. There were 2500 people at the launch. Billy Te Kahika is the leader with Jamie Lee Ross the deputy leader.

    Reply
    • I have reported the poll as per 1 News who didn’t have Advance NZ Public Party in their numbers, which means they must have polled at less than 0.5% (in news reports they usually round their results).

      Can you verify ‘2500 people at the launch’?

      A report at The Spinoff referred to “at least a thousand voices in the hall”, that’s the only semi-official count I have seen. That’s still a big crowd for a political launch.

      https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/26-07-2020/jami-lee-ross-billy-te-kahika-and-the-rebel-alliance-of-election-2020/

      Reply
    • Roberto M

       /  31st July 2020

      Why do all NZPP members keep claiming to have more financial members than any other party, despite there being zero evidence of this ?

      NZPP will not be in the ballot, the only registered party will be Advance New Zealand Party (if the registration actually completes).

      Reply
  9. M Harris

     /  30th July 2020

    How are the stats for this poll taken?
    From the rally on Sunday you would think Billy TK and NZPP would be up there .

    Reply
  10. Patzcuaro

     /  30th July 2020

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  31st July 2020

      Probably about the same as having to deal with the Boag/Walker/Woodhouse fiasco on top of Muller’s meltdown and Bridge’s failure.

      Still the divergence is beyond the likely margins of error so either opinion is shifting or there is a rogue/unknown error contribution.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  31st July 2020

        Both Reid and Colmar were both ‘spot on’ last election, actual result well within margin of error.
        Dont know what methodologies changes they have made since, but the trend is apparent , Labour around the 50 mark, could be above of below , National is low thirties, could dip below 30 if voters vote tactically to shore up minor parties like they did in 2002.

        Reply
        • It isn’t surprising that polls close to an election are close to the actual election result.

          But in July 2017 Reid Research had Labour on 24.1 and Colmar Brunton had them on 24, much different to the election result.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_general_election

          Polls are usually a reasonable indication of voter intent at the time of the polling, but it’s always in the past, and like last election, two months out this time things are changing and volatile.

          Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  31st July 2020

          14% undecided is a significant target for National given they are obviously still unconvinced of the Government’s saintliness. But depending on the economy and random political events it is hard to see anything but a slow slog back through Labour’s second term while Winston rues his choice in enforced retirement.

          Reply
  11. Charlotte

     /  30th July 2020

    Billy Te Kahika for PM!!! Goooo NZPP/Advance!

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  31st July 2020

      Contact Mr Fishfinger he may be able to come down and help campaign for them.

      Reply
  12. Corky

     /  31st July 2020

    [Deleted, please use proper names] said we should take this poll with a grain of salt, just like the previous one, for the simple reason we are living in such tumultuous times.

    Reply
  1. Why did the Advance NZ Public Party not feature in the polls? | Your NZ
  2. Roy Morgan party poll – July 2020 | Your NZ

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