Why did the Advance NZ Public Party not feature in the polls?

In response to Thursday’s 1 News/Colmar brunton poll someone commented:

Please include Advance NZ Public Party in your polls next time. It is a rapidly growing movement that has more members than the major parties. There were 2500 people at the launch. Billy Te Kahika is the leader with Jamie Lee Ross the deputy leader.

I have nothing to do with any polling so can’t include anyone.

Now Colmar Brunton have posted full poll details (1 News don’t give all the numbers in news reports) here are all the parties included:

  • Labour 53%
  • National 32%
  • Green Party 5%
  • ACT Party 4.8%
  • New Zealand First 2.0%
  • New Conservative 1.2%
  • Maori Party 1.0%
  • ONE Party 0.2%
  • Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.2%
  • The Opportunities Party 0.1%

So why no Advance NZ Public Party?

The questions asked are:

“Which political party would you vote for?”
“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party vote question has been asked unprompted since February 1997.

No party names are provided, so to indicate a party respondents have to know the name of the party.

12 June New Zealand Public Party kicks off

The Co-Leader of the newly merged Advance NZ Party, Billy Te Kahika, will take his fight for democracy to the heart of government by going head to head with Kelvin Davis.

“Te Tai Tokerau is my home and where my wife and children whakapapa to.

There was little publicity in mainstream media, and while the party has become quite popular in social media most voters are unlikely to have noticed.

Last Sunday 26 July: Jami-Lee Ross’ newly formed alliance with NZ Public Party…

Leader of the newly formed Advance NZ Party, Jami-Lee Ross has joined forces with the NZ Public Party…

Half of the Colmar polling had already been done by last Sunday so many people would have been unaware of the joining let alone either party name.

There is another problem – neither party is registered for the Electoral Commission yet. If they don’t manage to do that before the campaign starts they may not be listed on ballot papers.

Bill Te Kahika could still stand in Te Tai Tokerau, and Jami-Lee Ross can still stand in Botany, but they would only get in on their own as electorate MPs if they don’t have a registered party.

It looks like Ross has been unable to get 500 members required to register, which isn’t surprising, he’s probably one of the least popular politicians around.

Te Kahika seems to have grown a significant following but will need to get members to sign up in time to register.

Te Kahika did feature in the ‘preferred prime minister’ part of the poll with 0.7%, which is about 7 respondents, which seems a bit odd but suggests his name is better known than the party name.

He got more than Greens Chloe Swarbrick (0.3%), and Marama Davidson and James Shaw on just 1% (or just 1 respondent each). New Conservative leader Leighton Baker also got 1%.

But it may still be difficult to get rated in polls. Colmar Brunton polls via landlines and mobile phones and doesn’t use online polling.

Reid Research does some online polling so may find some NZPP supporters, but time is running out for NZPP to get noticed enough for that.

While NZPP have quickly built a following via social media it may be too late for this election.

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  1. John J Harrison

     /  3rd August 2020

    A party of nuts run by a couple of fruitcakes!
    Waste of money and waste of time.

  2. lurcher1948

     /  3rd August 2020

    One of the “fruitcake”leaders was a National Party MP,are you saying National Party MPs turn into or are fruitcakes??? JJH

    • John J Harrison

       /  3rd August 2020

      Lurcher, turns into is correct.
      Something in the Wellington water makes them both a serial nut job and fruitcake after a few years.
      The vast majority are rabbit socialists but the occasional Nat gets affected.

      • I presume you’re making that with no obvious way of quantifying vague sweeping claims. Please stick to specifics and don’t resort to generalised derogatory swipes at political groups.


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