Roy Morgan party poll – July 2020

Roy Morgan have just published their July poll results (polling through July so already a bit dated). These are quite similar to the Reid Research results (16-24 July) that National claimed to be a ‘rogue’ poll, and are different to the more recent Colmar Brunton poll (25-29 July).

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

  • Labour 53.5% (down 1)
  • National 26.5% (down 0.5)
  • Greens 8% (down 1)
  • ACT 6.5% (up 1.5)
  • Others 4.0%
  • NZ First 1.5% (no change)
  • The Opportunities Party 1.5% (no change)
  • Maori Party 0.5% (down 0.5)

Again, most polling was done before the Colmar Brunton poll in late July that appeared to show a bit of a National recovery, but confirms they have been well off the pace since the Covid pandemic struck and since Todd Muller took over leadership from Simon Bridges. It will reflect some leadership change and Boag/Walker/Falloon effects, but is too soon to show much if any Judith Collins effect.

New Zealand Party Vote

That still looks great for Labour and grim for National.

And it is worse for NZ First who are well adrift of the 5% threshold (Q+A will release a poll on the Northland electorate tomorrow which will give an indication whether Shane Jones has any chance there).

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 899 electors during July. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 2%) didn’t name a party.

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8489-nz-national%20-voting-intention-july-2020-202008070802

This shows all the poll results this term with the divergence of Labour and National this year very obvious:

Both the recent higher results for National are Colmar Brunton – have they been the outlier/rogue? Or are they closer to the mark with both Reid Research and Roy Morgan out of whack?

Colmar Brunton for National: 29% (May), 38% (June), 32% (July). Even if that’s more accurate than the others it is still dismal for National.

And this shows the climb of ACT and decline of NZ First:

Ardern and Labour look to have sidelined Winston Peters and NZ First.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

Labour + Greens are looking very strong in all polls at 55-65%, but Labour could easily govern alone based on all recent polls, and nothing currently seems to be challenging their dominance as control of Covid looks good and the economic impact has been held at bay for now at least.

Previous Post
Leave a comment

11 Comments

  1. Alan Wilkinson

     /  8th August 2020

    Probably a high point for ACT when National was low.

    Reply
  2. Blazer

     /  8th August 2020

    Greens will be…delerious.

    Reply
  3. Trevors_elbow

     /  8th August 2020

    I hope everyone is content that on current polling we will end up with Labour governing alone…I.e. a FPP result…. BUT crucially with no manifesto of policies published.
    In effect a dictatorship with zero accountability via measurement against a known set of policies and measures.
    Not a great outcome and not what MMP is suppose to ensure doesnt happen.
    It will be the will of the people and I accept that.
    But an emotive ‘thank eff we are alive’ vote for Ms Ardern without considering the total incompetence of her current Ministry is a receipe for an unmitigated disaster.
    I hope buyers regret doesnt descend on the low information voter in June next year as a Labour government ruling alone wrecks the long term future of the country by borrowing, spending and hoping things go their way with no real plan and zero capability to deliver any major policy commitment like say there flagship 2017 policy promise Kiwibuild delivery fiasco….

    Reply
    • duperez

       /  8th August 2020

      It may be Trevors_elbow but really it’s a massive tripping over a bottom lip. 🙃

      Reply
  4. Duker

     /  8th August 2020

    National will be ‘very pleased’ the trend is no longer downwards ……hahahahaha

    Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  8th August 2020

      Actually there is not much of a trend after lockdown. It’s all over the place and the big drop was after March.

      If Labour governs alone they will wear all the blame when things go bad and the chances of that are pretty high.

      Reply
  5. Duker

     /  8th August 2020

    “Not a great outcome and not what MMP is suppose to ensure doesnt happen.”
    What a stupid thing to say ….MMP has nothing to do with ‘not supposed to happen’

    What we had in 1980s and early 90s was a government of the mid 40%s of total vote who had a majority of seats , not a government of over 50%.
    Labour in 84 had 43% of vote and 56 out of 95 seats (59% of seats but 16% less share of vote)
    National in 1990 had 47% of vote and 67 seats out of 97 ( ie 70% seats but 23% less share of vote)
    And that was a strong vote elections, but in 93 NP got 35% but stayed the government (50.5% of seats)
    That is what MMP was preventing the majority of the country voting against a government which had a big majority of seats won.

    Reply
    • Trevors_elbow

       /  8th August 2020

      Engaging in your normal dickhead way Duker
      ..no surprise there…

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  8th August 2020

        I gave all the details of why he was wrong… I dont suffer fools and nor should any one else…it was a gross error not a typo or small misunderstanding, and its typical of dickhead comments from this person who never has anything useful to say here…dictatorship …really

        Reply
        • Fight4nz

           /  8th August 2020

          Yes. I am pleased to see such a telling post has not been deleted for the puerile personal attack it is.

          Reply
      • Jack

         /  8th August 2020

        Sigh, I do try Duker

        Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s