National have announced their party list for the 2020 election in September. There is nothing remarkable about it. The top 20 are fairly similar to their current rankings.
| 1 | Judith Collins | Papakura |
| 2 | Gerry Brownlee | Ilam |
| 3 | Paul Goldsmith | Epsom |
| 4 | Simon Bridges | Tauranga |
| 5 | Dr Shane Reti | Whangarei |
| 6 | Todd McClay | Rotorua |
| 7 | Chris Bishop | Hutt South |
| 8 | Todd Muller | Bay of Plenty |
| 9 | Louise Upston | Taupo |
| 10 | Scott Simpson | Coromandel |
| 11 | David Bennett | Hamilton East |
| 12 | Michael Woodhouse | Dunedin |
| 13 | Nicola Willis | Wellington Central |
| 14 | Jacqui Dean | Waitaki |
| 15 | Mark Mitchell | Whangaparaoa |
| 16 | Melissa Lee | Mt Albert |
| 17 | Andrew Bayly | Port Waikato |
| 18 | Dr Nick Smith | Nelson |
| 19 | Maureen Pugh | West Coast-Tasman |
| 20 | Barbara Kuriger | Taranaki-King Country |
| 21 | Harete Hipango | Whanganui |
| 22 | Jonathan Young | New Plymouth |
| 23 | Tim Macindoe | Hamilton West |
| 24 | Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi | Panmure-Otahuhu |
| 25 | Paulo Garcia | List |
| 26 | Nancy Lu | List |
| 27 | Dr Parmjeet Parmar | Mt Roskill |
| 28 | Agnes Loheni | Mangere |
| 29 | Dale Stephens | Christchurch Central |
| 30 | Alfred Ngaro | Te Atatu |
| 31 | Matt Doocey | Waimakariri |
| 32 | Stuart Smith | Kaikoura |
| 33 | Lawrence Yule | Tukituki |
| 34 | Denise Lee | Maungakiekie |
| 35 | Simon O’Connor | Tamaki |
| 36 | Brett Hudson | Ohariu |
| 37 | Simeon Brown | Pakuranga |
| 38 | Ian McKelvie | Rangitikei |
| 39 | Erica Stanford | East Coast Bays |
| 40 | Matt King | Northland |
| 41 | Chris Penk | Kaipara ki Mahurangi |
| 42 | Tim van de Molen | Waikato |
| 43 | Dan Bidois | Northcote |
| 44 | Jo Hayes | Mana |
| 45 | Katie Nimon | Napier |
| 46 | Catherine Chu | Banks Peninsula |
| 47 | Hamish Campbell | Wigram |
| 48 | David Patterson | Rongotai |
| 49 | Lisa Whyte | New Lynn |
| 50 | Rima Nakhle | Takanini |
| 51 | Liam Kernaghan | Taieri |
| 52 | Bala Beeram | Kelston |
| 53 | Lincoln Platt | Christchurch East |
| 54 | William Wood | Palmerston North |
| 55 | Nuwi Samarakone | Manurewa |
| 56 | Mark Crofskey | Remutaka |
| 57 | Jake Bezzant | Upper Harbour |
| 58 | Mike Butterick | Wairarapa |
| 59 | Tim Costley | Otaki |
| 60 | Nicola Grigg | Selwyn |
| 61 | Christopher Luxon | Botany |
| 62 | Joseph Mooney | Southland |
| 63 | Penny Simmonds | Invercargill |
| 64 | Tania Tapsell | East Coast |
| 65 | Simon Watts | North Shore |
| 66 | TBC | Auckland Central |
| 67 | TBC | Rangitata |
| 68 | Adrienne Pierce | List |
| 69 | Senthuran Arulanantham | List |
| 70 | Sang Cho | List |
| 71 | Rachel Afeaki-Taumoepeau | List |
| 72 | Trish Collett | List |
| 73 | Ava Neal | List |
| 74 | Katrina Bungard | List |
| 75 | Shelley Pilkington | List |
Most list candidates and quite a few electorate candidates will be struggling to get in unless National’s support improves support markedly. An on polling National will do well to get half of that list into Parliament.
This term they got 56 MPs elected with 44.45% of the vote, but recent public polling ranged from 25-32%.
On current polling a number of candidates have no show of getting in unless they win their electorates.
Interesting to see Chris Luxon at 61. He is sometimes toured as a leaderr of the future, but after the Muller experience future caucuses should be cautious about parachuting in someone with little political or political media experience.
RNZ Leader interviews: Judith Collins – ‘I’m always very confident, particularly when I know I’m right’
Collins is still shy of a month into the job but in her media blitz she and her arched eyebrows are everywhere, along with the party slogan “Strong team, More Jobs, Better Economy”.
Is the tagline “strong team” verging on the comedic though, when you look back at the past few horror months for National: a rolling maul of resignations, sackings and leadership changes?
“Look at our front bench. Look at it,” Collins says in defence.
Stuff: National Party announces list of MPs and candidates for upcoming election
On National’s current polling, many of the party’s existing MPs could lose their seat in Parliament. MPs Alfred Ngaro and Jo Hayes appear to be at particular risk after being ranked down the list.
Two candidates – Nancy Lu and Dale Stephens – have entered the list above existing MPs. Lu, a high-flying accountant who was born in China, has been parachuted into 26 on the list.
National Party president Peter Goodfellow said that Lu had been placed so high on the list because she had the capabilities the party was looking for.
Collins said many of the promising new candidates in safe seats, such as Luxon, had been grouped together down the list.
Ngaro, who is running against Labour minister Phil Twyford in Te Atatū, has dropped from number 19 in the caucus list, to 30 on the list – the only MP to drop from the top 20.
“Alfred has a seat to win, and it is important that we also have renewal,” Collins said.
That’s hardly a vote of confidence in Ngaro. He was 3,180 votes behind Twyford last election. Twyford has been poor as a minister but should benefit from Labour riding high.
Most people will know little to nothing about most candidates on the list. Elections are won and lost on leadership and the top handful of known MPs and candidates.
Your NZ 
Corky
/ 9th August 2020Nothing like a nod and a wink and a little big noting.
Yes, folks, we have a Maori at No5…and as you can see, he has Dr before his name. That means he’s educated and won’t park a wreck on the grounds outside parliament.🙄
There’s also an Indian doctor. However, an Indian who’s a doctor is par for the course.
I notice Labour’s list has no Doctors. Have they anyone with a education?
Pete George
/ 9th August 2020Labour have a doctor of theology – Dr David Clark – but he has proven to be not much good on health matters.
They also have Dr Liz Craig – https://www.labour.org.nz/lizcraig
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Craig
Pete George
/ 9th August 2020But wait, there’s more.
Dr Megan Woods – PhD is History, but was a business manager for Crop & Food Research (2005–08) and its successor organisation Plant and Food Research (2008).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megan_Woods
Dr Deborah Russell “Russell worked in the private sector as an accountant, and in the public sector as a policy analyst. She has lectured at universities in both Australia and New Zealand in taxation, ethics, business ethics, political theory and philosophy. She was a senior lecturer specialising in taxation at Massey University.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deborah_Russell
Dr Duncan Webb graduated Bachelor of Laws with Honours in 1989 before being awarded a Doctor of Laws in 2007.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duncan_Webb
Candidates:
Dr Gaurav Sharma – “As a local doctor, I hear first-hand the concerns of our community every day. My work in healthcare and experience in management will help me be a strong voice for Hamilton in this post-pandemic recovery phase.”
https://www.labour.org.nz/gauravsharma
Dr Ayesha Verrall is an Infectious Diseases Physician whose research focuses on Tuberculosis.
https://www.otago.ac.nz/healthsciences/expertise/Profile/index.html?id=1377
Kimbo
/ 9th August 2020Even though I gave National my party vote last time, Deborah Russell got my New Lynn electorate vote as she was clearly imho the best candidate. Same again this year. No matter who is in power it is important they have competence, and I could envisage her as the Minister of Finance in the 7th Labour Government in, say, 2032
duperez
/ 9th August 2020I have to admit you, like D Trump, have a great sense of humour.
Not doing that would mean having to take the other road, and say that again you are succeeding in convincing me that you are just an out an out racist.
The emoji? That’s like the bully smashing someone in the face and saying ‘I was just kidding around, I didn’t really mean it.’
Corky
/ 9th August 2020What you are doing is projecting your values and mindset onto mine and conveniently calling me a racist, and convincing yourself of that fact as well.
I have proven time, time and time again with facts and personal experience that I am RIGHT and you are wrong. Anyone can make sweeping statements without backing them up. And you have.
In fact, my cynical wit was aimed at National and their need to state someone is a doctor. That came after Judith said Maori were well represented in Nationals lineup. Labour saw no need to do similar. If Labour had, nearly all their high listers would be doctors of some sort as Pete’s posts show ( I exaggerate for comparisons).
The emoji was for Judith and her bs…not you.
Corky
/ 9th August 2020ps..I will up tick you for the backhanded compliment.
Duker
/ 9th August 2020Parmjeet Pamar is not a medical doctor , shes biochemistry or something but didnt work in that field in NZ, she worked in the familys confectionery business
Interesting that Harete Hipango, only an MP for 3 years is rocketed up the list well ahead of her chohort who came in on safe electorates at the same time. Shes arch conservative on abortion and maybe being Maori has given her some extra points for someone thats inivisible to be at 21. Identity politics and all that.
Chris Bishop in a marginal seat has his insurance policy with a high list ranking
Duker
/ 9th August 2020The high list place for newcomer Dale Stephens could be again identity politics as hes Maori Business director at NZ Trade and Enterprise
https://dalestephens.national.org.nz/about_dale
“Dale’s first career was in the Police, spending the majority of his time there in the Criminal Investigation branch investigating serious crime. He also spent ten years presenting the television show Crimewatch.
Kimbo
/ 9th August 2020Bad luck – or being on the wrong side of the various National leadership changes since Simon Bridges was dumped – for Alfred Ngaro. Especially as he was wooed by the Helensville National Party when John Key stepped down, but Ngaro chose to remain faithful to his early-adult stomping ground of Te Atatu.
But while Ngaro’s built up a sizeable and devoted following and support-team among people who would not otherwise likely vote National, his silly dalliance a few years ago contemplating setting up yet another iteration of a Christian Party has likely also weighed against him. Plus I’m not sure all the hard work in Ethnic Affairs he has put in both in Government and in Opposition falls within the “branding” that Collins wants to differentiate her party.
On merit Ngaro is a better MP and cabinet minister than Twyford – mind you based on his performance the last 3 years a lump of sod is better than Twyford – but Te Atatu only votes blue when the nationwide pendulum is swinging to a National Party landslide (as occurred in 1975 and 1990). So in the year of Jacindamania 2.0, he has little realistic chance of winning the electorate and will have to hope Collins can lift that National Party vote.
Duker
/ 9th August 2020Its largely pointless comparing electorates with 30 years ago, boundarys change after each census, sometimes not by much as Hutt South showed moving Taita in Hutt Valley into the neighbouring electorate and adding the hill suburbs almost over the Ngaraunga gorge tilted it Nationals way. Some provincial electorate have had massive changes as the pop. growth has favoured Auckland and some areas like Queenstown and Bay of Plenty , the provincial electorates have had to grow in area to make up for their stable populations.
Kimbo
/ 9th August 2020Depends on the electorate, and the limits to which you can realistically stretch its boundaries. Some like Clutha-Southland or whatever is centred on the Takapuna Peninsula (currently called “North Shore”), or at least one of the urban Dunedin seats will be almost impervious to any significant boundary changes that will flip them. Te Atatu is one of those:
https://www.parliament.nz/en/mps-and-electorates/electorate-profiles/electorate-profiles-data/document/DBHOH_Lib_EP_Te_Atatū_Electoral_Profile/te-atatū-electoral-profile
Hence even including the boundary changes when the electorate was enlarged when MMP was introduced in 1996, you cannot change the essential working-to-middle class demographic of what was, and remains the Te Atatu electorate based on the Te Atatu Peninsula, Te Atatu South and whatever parts of Massey, Henderson or Glendene that get moved in or out. You have to go to Titirangi, or further west to the rural spaces of Helensville to find a solid traditional National voter-base. Although Ngaro has created an unlikely one in Te Atatu among conservative Christian Polynesian and working class Palagi voters.
For the medium term future, despite elements of gentrification that may eventually change it (as per the example of Auckland Central), Te Atatu should remain a relatively safe Labour seat.