Northland electorate may be lost saviour for NZ First

With NZ First polling well below the 5% threshold (except in Winston’s claimed but never revealed polls) an alternative way of keeping them in Parliament is for Shane Jones to win the Northland electorate.

Jones has actually said that if voters want NZ First back in Parliament they should vote for him in Northland. But he has never yet won an electorate (this is the third he has stood in).

And a 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll on Northland doesn’t look promising for Jones or NZ First.

Candidate votes in the 2017 election:

  • Matt King 38.30%
  • Winston Peters 34.81%
  • Willow-Jean Prime 21.61%

Jones has puled out of a Q+A interview this morning saying he had another engagement after previously committing to the interview.

Interesting to see National (41%) close to Labour (38%) on the party polling there – that looks ok for National compared to recent polls, but it isn’t flash compared to the 2017 election result:

  • National 46.35%
  • Labour 30.12%
  • NZ First 13.17%
  • Greens 6.05%
  • Conservatives 0.37%
  • ACT 0.47%

NZ First party vote is well down on that at 7%, and they are headed off by ACT jumping to a remarkable 8%.

Leave a comment


  1. John J Harrison

     /  9th August 2020

    Could not believe that Q&A confirmed they had spoken to Jones 3 times to organize this mornings interview, which he said he would appear but then make up a pathetic excuse once he knew he was toast.
    Good riddance to the bullying, bloviating buffoon and his scandal ridden , tawdry party.
    As with other polls the National candidate is improving over previous results.
    Only Act / National will get us out of the upcoming depression.

  2. Reply
    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  9th August 2020

      No chance of a Nat-ACT-NZF coalition then.

      • Duker

         /  9th August 2020

        Falsehood alert
        $3 bill slush fund a quarter of which has been poured into the electorate.. utter nonsense
        $164 mill

        “$109.7 million investment, through the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF), into regional rail that will revitalise train services across the Northland region.
        $12.745m through the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) to ensure the region has a reliable water supply which can be used to develop underutilised land, grow new markets, create jobs and put more money into the local economy,”
        “The Provincial Growth Fund will invest $4 million for Kaipara District Council to upgrade the Dargaville pontoon, the first in its plan to improve wharves on Kaipara Harbour, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today.

  3. Reply
  4. Griff.

     /  9th August 2020

    Good to see them number of voters who understand MMP.
    Electoral Vote National to get rid of NZ first, party vote labour to give them the majority.

    • Duker

       /  9th August 2020

      Same sort of polls ( a subset of nationwide polling) last time said Maori party was going to retain Waiariki…it didnt
      You have to do a specific poll for Northland
      Your place Griff is in Northland electorate ? The boundary has moved North and taken part of the kiwifruit belt to west of Whangarei

      • Griff.

         /  9th August 2020

        Yip the chateau le Griff as at an approximate equal distance from Maungatoro, Kaiwaka and Brynderwyn on the old Maungatoro highway in the Northland electorate .

        I will be voting for the National candidate to keep NZ first out..

        “If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for … but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong.”

        ― Robert A. Heinlein, Time Enough for Love, The Notebooks of Lazarus Long.


    • Alan Wilkinson

       /  10th August 2020

      Electorate vote National, party vote ACT showing there I think.

  5. Brian Johnston

     /  9th August 2020

    We have to get rid of MMP And go back to 60MP’s
    Then we have to work out what they should really get paid which at the moment is far to high and that they are way out of touch with average NZer’s needs to be addressed
    We need patriots who want to rebuild this country
    We don’t need ACT which is a remnant of douglas
    The National party has to be thoroughly rebuilt
    Labour are communists led by comrade who incidentally will win
    Between this election and next election should see major changes, if Kiwis wake up.

    • There is no sign of any change to our MMP system of democracy.

      We need all New Zealanders to contribute to rebuilding the country. ‘Patriot’ is an alien term here.

      A growing number of people seem to think that they want ACT according to a resurgence in the polls.

      National needs to do a lot of rebuilding, but nothing like completely.

      Labour look nothing like communists. Most criticism of them at the moment is from the left who see them as too centrist.

    • NOEL

       /  10th August 2020

      We need to get rid of MMP?
      The driver for MMP was the perception that FPP was “broken.”

      Click to access Session-2-Dr-Therese-Arseneau-The-Impact-of-MMP-on-Representation-in-New-Zealands-Parliament.pdf

    • duperez

       /  11th August 2020

      Since you put “We need patriots who want to rebuild this country in the bit about MPs I presume you think MPs should be altruistic patriots doing the job for love.

      You want 60 MP’s who are in touch with average NZer’s needs and addressing those. In 1960 we had 80 MPs for a population of 2.4 million.

  6. Brian Johnston

     /  10th August 2020

    To Pete George: Labour are Left. The problem is National appears as far or further to the Left than Labour on some issues. You may be a globalist, please confirm or deny.

    It goes like this: There is a move for a world order. World government. This is a fact.
    Helen Clark and Richard Prebble were both secretaries for Parliamentarians For World Order. Fact. Due to bad publicity – the truth getting out – the name was changed to Parliamentarians For Global Action. Fact. It is obvious that Ardern supports this order.

    The new order will be a one world order with a centralised government for the world. Fact.
    The available documents tell us a lot.
    It will be a dictatorship headed by a world leader. Fact.
    It will take the form of world communism/socialism. Fact.
    Interesting reading is Orwell, Huxley and possibly Koestler who were contemporaries.
    Nesta Webster is a good read.
    Also Benjamin Freedman

    Patriots stand for a decentralised system and believe in the Nation State. You oppose patriots. Those of us who support the Nation are attacked and vilified. Your types do that.

    I now propose to you Pete a question; What sort of world order do you support?

    • You state a number of ‘facts’ but provide no evidence. With no credible evidence it sounds like conspiracy claptrap to me.

      I don’t support whatever a ‘world order’ us supposed to be.

      I didn’t say I oppose patriots so don’t make false accusations. I only know patriot as a US term and make general accusations of attacking and vilifying.

      I repeat – I don’t support anything like ‘a world order’. I never have done. It’s a ridiculous assertion.

      You seem to be very defensive and claiming some sort of victim status for imagined reasons. I think you’re a victim of your own imagination.

    • Nesta Helen Webster (24 August 1876 – 16 May 1960) was an English far-right conspiracy theorist, who revived theories about the Illuminati. She claimed that the secret society’s members were occultists, plotting communist world domination, through a Jewish cabal, the Masons and Jesuits.

      Benjamin Harrison Freedman (October 4, 1890 – May 1984) was an American businessman, Holocaust denier, and vocal anti-Zionist.

      He was a financial backer of the author Conde McGinley, publisher of the antisemitic periodical Common Sense.

  7. Brian Johnston

     /  10th August 2020

    To Pete George: Only people pressure will bring about change to MMP.
    Years ago I had posted to me an A4 glossy booklet on the 1982? conference of Parliamentarians For World Order held in New York. It referred to an enforceable world law where member nations shall provide peace keeping forces which will have complete allegiance to the (UN?).
    The destruction of the nation state becomes obvious.
    We have politicians saying today, people just have to do what they are told.
    You said patriots are alien which is pretty damned negative.
    The suggestion that people support a world order is not ridiculous.
    I am not defensive. You are in denial of plans for a world order.
    Webster was not a far right conspiracy theorist. A very left wing term. You are exposing your left wing bias/preference.
    Webster was very intelligent and respected. Her comments about the Illuminati are factual. A cabal of sorts exists. It appears the Illuminati infiltrated the Freemasons.
    Benjamin Freedman was raised Jewish.
    I do not know why you included that Freedman was a holocaust denier.
    Conde McGinley was anti Rosenberg’s appointment and rightfully so.
    We are really getting into territory where there are gaps in your knowledge. Maybe you are left wing and atheist.

    • “Only people pressure will bring about change to MMP.”

      I see no pressure to change MMP from the vast majority of people. There is no sign of any inclination in Parliament too change MMP. No party in power or looking like being in power proposes changing MMP substantially. The only place I see proposals to change MMP are the odd person here, and a few at Kiwiblog (tight wing). There is nothing close to popular support beyond the fringes.

      “The destruction of the nation state becomes obvious.”

      Most people are happy with the direction the country is going in and with our current Government. Claiming destruction but with no supporting evidence is meaningless rhetoric.

      “We have politicians saying today, people just have to do what they are told.”

      To a small extent and largely limited to Covid people are being encouraged to take measures to avoid the spread of a deadly virus. other than that, from what I see this is not an issue for nearly everyone.

      “You are in denial of plans for a world order.”

      No I’m not. I just haven’t seen any credible evidence. Where is the evidence? You haven’t produced any at all, just vague unsupported assertions.

      “Webster was not a far right conspiracy theorist.”

      I was quoting sources used on Wikipedia.

      “You are exposing your left wing bias/preference.”

      That’s ridiculously funny. Some here moan about my supposed right wing bias/preference, as some have at The Standard. Some at Kiwiblog have claimed I am left wing. You’re exposing your poor grasp of political polarity and of my political preferences (I support some policies of all of ACT, National, Labour and Greens).

      “I do not know why you included that Freedman was a holocaust denier.”

      I was quoting Wikipedia, who provide four references to support their claim.

      Identity Politics in the Age of Genocide: The Holocaust and Historical representation, David B. MacDonald, page 56

      Benjamin H.Freedman, “Six Million Jew Hoax,” Common Sense (May 1, 1959)

      “In the meantime, however, a vicious campaign against Mrs. Rosenberg’s nomination had been launched by a group of professional anti-Semites. The leaders of the group were Benjamin H. Freedman, a retired New York businessman… and Gerald L. K. Smith, the notorious leader of the ‘Christian Nationalist Crusade.'” Robert K. Griffith, The Politics of Fear, p. 136.

      Stuart Svonkin, Jews Against Prejudice, p. 120.

      “We are really getting into territory where there are gaps in your knowledge. ”

      Of course there are a lot of gaps in my knowledge, as is the case for everyone. We are very much into territory where there are gaps in your facts. You have provided virtually none to support your assertions and accusations.

      “Maybe you are left wing and atheist.”

      Maybe in part I am, but that only partly describes my beliefs. And maybe this is an irrelevant diversion from your lack of facts – I think it’s lazy of you to make conspiracy claims and then make lame accusations when I question your lack of evidence.

  8. Brian Johnston

     /  11th August 2020

    Pete George: You flippantly make mention of a “group of professional anti-Semites”. Would you care to define the term Semite.

    I quoted from the booklet from Parliamentarian For World Order. I am not lazily making conspiracy claims. A typical left wing Marxist response. I only deal in the facts.

    I never said there was pressure to change MMP. I said it needs to go. That is a well considered opinion. I also said we go back to 60 MP’s. We do not need nor can afford 120 MP’s.

    Another fact for you, not a conspiracy theory. John Key’s government passed a bill called the Open Bank Resolution. In the event of a future financial crash funds could be seized from peoples bank accounts to bail out the banks.

    The world derivative market is around 1.5 quadrillion. That is 20X the world GDP
    The banks are out of control and our savings should not be used to bail that mess out.

    I also support referenda, veto and recall.

    I would also like to see a scientific study carried to determine the safety of 5G Before 5G is rolled out. To date no scientific study exists. Fact.

    Maybe Freedman had good reason to be a holocaust denier an to refer to the “Six million Jew hoax”. Should more research be done on this?

    • If you quote something, show it clear as a quote and provide the source of the quote.

      I can’t find a booklet called Parliamentarian For World Order.

      You have not been dealing in facts, you have provided very few of them, you seem to confuse them with things you believe or have read, that doesn’t make them facts.

      Your summary of Open Bank Resolution differs from the Reserve Bank description:

      Open Bank Resolution (OBR) is a long-standing Reserve Bank policy aimed at allowing a distressed bank to be kept open for business, while placing the cost of a bank failure primarily on the bank’s shareholders and creditors, rather than the taxpayer.

      Protecting a bank actually helps protect the funds that people have in them.

      • How odd; what I read was nothing like the version quoted by Brian.

        The World Order conspiracy has been going on as long as I can remember, but it never seems to happen.

    • If the Holocaust was a hoax, then the Germans were in on it, making fake films, photos and documents of the camps and the atrocities.

      The evidence for the Holocaust is overwhelming. No one could make a hoax on that scale. It would have involved people from too many countries. Where did all the bodies come from ?

      Don’t insult the people who suffered and died in the Holocaust. Some of them were my relations who simply disappeared. Where did they go ?

      • Blazer

         /  11th August 2020

        ‘. Where did they go ?’

        ‘Hell for the company…or Heaven for the…climate’!

    • Blazer

       /  11th August 2020

      Globalisation and a New World Order is right wing agenda…not left!.

      • I don’t think it is.

        For people who consider themselves left wing it seems to be a right wing agenda, but people who consider themselves right wing see it as a left wing agenda.

        It’s an ‘us versus them’ victim mentality.

  9. Brian Johnston

     /  11th August 2020

    You will have difficulty finding the booklet PWO. I can assure you it did exist.

    As for the Right v’s Left paradigm consider this – I may have said it elsewhere on this site.

    Communism, socialism and capitalism all on the same side. The capitalist wants to own everything and wants socialism to control everyone.

    The Right Wing are opposed to all that and support. the nation state, free enterprise, small businesses, tradition, trade the surplus, less government, opposed to a centralised world government and cooperation between nation states. It also describes me.

    Bush hinted at the nation state though at the same time referred to the rule of law.
    He referred to drawing nations together. What would have emerged? A one world order. The rule of law. A world dictatorship. For those that can see and hear, let them understand.

    Who in NZ would want our laws determined off shore. Beware.

  10. Brian Johnston

     /  11th August 2020

    As can be seen below the taxpayer will not bail out the banks
    The holder of a savings or bank account is a creditor
    The bank does not hold your money in trust
    There is no government guarantee to protect savings
    Savings or bank account money could be used to bail out banks

    Folks, I am not making this stuff up

    Open Bank Resolution – Reserve Bank of New Zealand › regulation-and-supervision › open…

    Open Bank Resolution (OBR) is a long-standing Reserve Bank policy aimed at allowing a distressed bank to be kept open for business, while placing the cost of a bank failure primarily on the bank’s shareholders and creditors, rather than the taxpayer.

    There you have it. I hope that makes it clear.

    To Pete George: You talk about protecting banks to protect the funds people have in them.
    It aint gonna work like that in a time of trouble.
    If the trouble is bad enough. Goodbye savings. Remember Cyprus. A dummy run?

  11. Brian Johnston

     /  11th August 2020

    To Duperez: I put the comment referring to patriots on a separate line.

    The politicians are elected to serve us. In effect they serve other masters. Some politicians refer to themselves as career politicians. They can get out now.
    How many do we need. A small number have multiple portfolios. lets face it they cant do justice to the portfolios. They are basically singing paper thrust at them.
    The back benchers, what do they do? nothing? We see them nodding, are they in agreement or are they just that, nodding off.
    Have you been to parliament or watched. Often no one there. and the bickering and point scoring, quite frightening. Churlish.
    I may sound a little cynical, sarcastic. So much going wrong. Foreign ownership. privatisation of electricity which has since gone up 300%.
    Wait and see what happens when they privatise the water. Its coming.


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