UMR poll August 2020

The UMR polls seem to be getting published now with a reasonable amount of detail and history. The latest poll results done from July 29 – August 3) (with comparison from their 26 May – 1 June poll):

  • Labour 52% (down from 54)
  • National 28% (down from 30)
  • ACT 5.9% (no result to compare to)
  • Greens 5.4% (was 4)
  • NZ First 5.1% (was 5)

That’s fairly consistent with other polls, which means great for Labour and ACT, awful for National, marginal for Greens and better than other recent polls for NZ First, this must be the poll that Winston likes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 61%
  • Judith Collins 20%

Source: https://thestandard.org.nz/umr-poll-august-2020/

Collins is rating much better than Simon bridges and Todd Muller but is a long way behind Ardern, and i think will struggle to get much closer going by her recent performance.

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9 Comments

  1. Duker

     /  12th August 2020

    Are you sure of those numbers?

    The NZ Herald story says Labour is 52 which is down 1 ( not 2)
    and this is significantly different
    “National meanwhile measured its lowest reading in the UMR series for several years, dropping 4 percentage points to 28 per cent. not the 2 down you have
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12355979

    Reply
    • The Herald may have a more recent past poll for comparison. I don’t have access behind their paywall, so I’m going by what is on the Wikipedia poll page.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  12th August 2020

        The context is the 4% drop for national from last UMR poll is AFTER Collins took over as Muller was leader when last poll happened
        Oh dear , as I said earlier her polling is up, while the party is down…cue headless chooks running around in caucus as it could be hardly any list MPs, and even Goldsmith is at risk….

        Reply
        • 4% is in the wrong direction for National but it isn’t particularly significant (with margins of error +/-3%). And like the other recent polls it doesn’t really tell us whether National is slipping or recovering since a bad couple of weeks up to the end of July.

          And the current situation is unprecedented, so it’s hard to predict anything from here.

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  12th August 2020

            3% or so is for polling around 50%, the lower you get the smaller the margin, more like 2.5% error margin at 28%
            So it is significant …and yes it’s saying national was stable/downwards at the 30% minus and definitely not improving .
            Just as they thought the Covid was put aside and they could bang the drum on law and order and new motorways…..ooops it’s back to playing in an area labour is strong.

            Reply
  2. Patzcuaro

     /  12th August 2020

    Did we have a rogue poll a couple of weeks ago?

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  12th August 2020

      No. Collins is just following Trump by just saying bigger falsehoods the better….the press conference with Gerry Brownlee in tow showed that

      Reply
    • Could have been the Colmar Brunton poll.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  12th August 2020

        You did a post on rougue polls are like under 5% out ..nats claiming they were in mid..high 30s. This is another at the 30 and under level.
        Brownlee , the guy who didn’t come clean about barging through a security door to bypass airport security is now suggesting the Covid case has been kepth on the down low for days if not a week. No evidence of course …joins the homeless man as the fairy tales from the NP

        Reply

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