Another case, lockdowns to be escalated?

Another community transmission Covid case has been announced: Student at Mount Grammar tests positive for Covid-19

This morning Mount Albert Grammar principal Patrick Drumm told Morning Report a student from the school tested positive for Covid-19.

Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield confirmed that the student was a close contact of the four existing South Auckland cases.

He says the school told staff, parents and students last night after they were made aware of the result.

Why does this have to come out via the school principle? Shouldn’t the public be kept informed.

There is a growing ominous feeling about the current two and a half day lockdowns, with increasing speculation that the lockdowns will at least be extended beyond Friday if not raised a level.

RNZ: Experts Michael Baker and Shaun Hendy share concerns Auckland outbreak could be ‘generations’ deep

Covid-19 could been have spreading in Auckland for weeks, with dozens of people already infected, two experts claim.

The two infectious disease experts say it’s likely the four cases confirmed in a family on Tuesday are a few generations into an outbreak.

The family has no known connection to the country’s border – the only place experts believe Covid-19 could have arrived.

Epidemiologist Michael Baker said an outbreak usually went through a few generations of transmission before someone became sick enough to present with symptoms.

That could take about three weeks, he said.

Physicist and disease modeller Shaun Hendy agreed, saying there could be several layers to the outbreak.

“If [the virus] has been passed from someone who arrived, and passed through several people to this family, then they could have passed it onto other people as well,” he said.

If the family was the tertiary contact of a border case, then there could be about 25 people infected – and as many as 100 in a worse-case scenario, he said.

With a ‘fast, early’ commitment already it looks like we could be in for another few weeks of lockdowns.

The Government says they will decide and let us know tomorrow.

We should probably be preparing for it.

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29 Comments

  1. Maggy Wassilieff

     /  13th August 2020

    Some folks reckon the virus could have been infecting NZers for weeks..
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/423412/experts-michael-baker-and-shaun-hendy-share-concerns-auckland-outbreak-could-be-generations-deep

    But look how the Media fought against National Politicians for suggesting some weeks ago that the virus could be present in our community.
    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/nationals-todd-muller-suspects-undetected-community-spread-covid-19-in-nz

    Reply
  2. Blazer

     /  13th August 2020

    Its a reasonable assumption.

    Hard to address until cases are known …of course.

    Reply
  3. Duker

     /  13th August 2020

    “Another community transmission Covid case has been announced”

    Its NOT a separate case as the person is linked to the South Auckland Family

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  13th August 2020

      It doesn’t matter. Your government are at best tellers of half truths…at worst…liars. I tried to warn you but you thought you knew better.

      Mike said this morning he has been inundated with texts from people who have had enough. He has even received clips from inside lockdown facilities…not good according to Mike.

      So much for Auckland lockdown finishing on Friday by the looks of it.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  13th August 2020

        An Auckland lockdown will paralyze the country because it is the gateway for goods and services.

        There was a four hour queue to get out of Auckland north of Wellsford yesterday.

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  13th August 2020

          Geez, not good. And yes, I forgot Auckland is a gateway for the rest of NZ. There goes our tourist industry.

          Reply
          • Fight4nz

             /  13th August 2020

            There has been no international tourism for months??

            “An Auckland lockdown will paralyze the country because it is the gateway for goods and services.”
            One of them. Lots of other Ports. Lots of production outside of Auckland.

            Reply
            • Corky

               /  13th August 2020

              ”There has been no international tourism for months??”

              Correct..but??

        • Duker

           /  13th August 2020

          Trucks are exempt from the police roadblocks checking people in cars
          Hosking getting texts is just his usual partisan rants and nonsense talking for a shock jock.

          Does Collins support the lockdown or not . Seymour has said he does.
          “There will be time enough to ask why this has happened, but right now the goal is to get on top of it before there is loss of life or further loss of livelihoods.
          https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2008/S00118/act-statement-on-covid-19-community-transmission.htm

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  13th August 2020

            Being exempt at the back of a 10km queue is meaningless.

            Reply
          • Corky

             /  13th August 2020

            ”Hosking getting texts is just his usual partisan rants and nonsense talking for a shock jock.”

            Simple question: Is Hosking lying?

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  13th August 2020

              He doesnt get a representative view from his listeners- 12%? ( Radion NZ has a bigger audience) and he highlights what suits him.

              The queues will diminish as People who live in Northland get home and Aucklanders stop trying to sneak out. Its how it works
              I went to my supermarket just after 10am this morning , its one of the busiest in Auckland, all set up for restricting numbers inside, but place was even less busy than normal , no queues at all.

            • I went past the nearest Countdown to me, and it didn’t seem to be very busy, either; no queues.

            • Corky

               /  13th August 2020

              Thanks for the simple answer, Duker.

            • duperez

               /  13th August 2020

              Duker, you’ve got me thinking.

              “Hosking doesn’t get a representative view from his listeners.” A group of listeners is ‘representative’ by nature. But representative of what?

              There are plenty of stats on listener numbers. There is a default setting for some people which has them thinking that Newstalk ZB, and the brief part of the week that Hosking is on, is what radio in NZ is all about.

              Some of the stats: https://www.trb.co.nz/radio-survey
              https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1909/S00310/gfk-nz-commercial-radio-ratings-s3-2019.htm

              Radio NZ has a bigger audience in the morning slot.

              So some people listen to Hosking the vast majority don’t.

              “Queues will diminish as people who live in Northland get home.” “Queues will diminish as Aucklanders stop trying to sneak out.”

              You went to your supermarket, one of the busiest in Auckland, just after 10 am this morning, “but the place was even less busy than normal.”

              Now I’m going to work out why your comments attracted the downticks.🙃

            • Corky

               /  13th August 2020

              They attract downticks from compatriots. The rest of us aren’t interested.

              ”So some people listen to Hosking the vast majority don’t.”

              ”ZB’s cumulative audience was 536,500 – up 24,100 listeners, according to the GFK independent commercial radio survey. The Mike Hosking Breakfast remains at number one nationally – up to a share of 18.4.Apr 23, 2020.”

              Whatever you say. 🙄

            • duperez

               /  13th August 2020

              The vast majority of people do not listen to Hosking. No surprise that you got sucked in by NZME’s marketing bullshit.

              When survey results come out they usually put out obfuscating press releases.

              They seldom use hard numbers. They do if numbers seem to favour them. Usually they talk market share, percentages. They use terms like “king of breakfast” about Hosking. The surveys they usually publicise are about commercial radio stations only.
              See if you can read the figures:

              RNZ Survey 2020: Morning Report (6am-9am) 500,800 listeners
              https://www.rnz.co.nz/about/audience-research

              Find Newstalkzb’s numbers to compare in the 6am-9am slot:

              Click to access gfk_auckland_survey_1_2020_summary_report.pdf

              A lot of people rubbish the Herald, NZME and the MSM then give credibility to distortions they publish.

            • Compatriots are people living in the same country, so we are all compatriots here.

            • Blazer

               /  13th August 2020

              are insurgents who live in the same country..compatriots?

  4. Maggy Wassilieff

     /  13th August 2020

    Not everyone is convinced that trying to eradicate/eliminate the virus from NZ is a wise move

    https://www.aier.org/article/authoritarianism-in-auckland/

    Reply
  5. Conspiratoor

     /  13th August 2020

    5 planes arrived in Auckland yesterday from Australia and one from China. All full of ‘returning kiwis and a few exceptions’. Nothing to see here…

    Reply
  6. Alan Wilkinson

     /  13th August 2020

    Another 13 cases. Here we go again. But the election is now unconstitutional if people cannot gather to see, hear and question their candidates.

    Reply
    • Maggy Wassilieff

       /  13th August 2020

      So we can take it that 102 days with no community transmission was a load of b.s.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  13th August 2020

        Just more fake news, Maggy.

        Reply
        • Fight4nz

           /  13th August 2020

          Yep. And Vaccines cause autism. Man never landed on the moon. Obama wasn’t born in The USA.

          Reply
      • It was 102 days with no detected community transmission (I don’t believe they were keeping cases secret).

        Reply
        • I don’t, either, given the squawking reaction when this was discovered.

          This doesn’t mean that it wasn’t here and undetected, of course, but who knows ?

          The PM’s halo will be tarnished by this. Oh dear.

          Reply
      • Corky

         /  13th August 2020

        Socialist bs of the higest order.

        Reply
  7. It’s something that the cases are a cluster. No doubt the PDTs who disagreed that it was very good news that the Chch old people didn’t have C19 will also disagree that clusters are better than widespread and hard to trace random cases.

    Reply

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