1 News/Colmar Brunton poll

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll:

  • Labour 48% (July 53%)
  • National 31% (July 32%)
  • ACT 7% (July 4.8%)
  • Greens 6% (July 5%)
  • NZ First 2% (July 2.0%)
  • New Conservatives 2% (July 1.2%)
  • Maori Party (July 1.0%)
  • TOP (July 1%)
  • Advance NZ 1%

These are rounds they do for their initial results and will be updated when the more accurate results are available.

Their last poll was done 25-29 July.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 54% (July 54%)
  • Judith Collins 18% (July 20%)
  • David Seymour 2% (July 1%)
  • Winston Peters 2% (July 1%)

So as expected Labour are still looking very comfortable despite dropping a bit, but if they come down much more and Greens survive, as looks more likely, it may be a two party Government.

Greens seem to be benefiting from the ‘not Labour on their own’ sentiment.

National are just not making up any ground 9althoughb are higher than on some other recent polls).

ACT will remain confident.

NZ First look like they are being largely dismissed by voters. It’s going to be very tough for Peters from here, with Jones seeming to have pretty much conceded Northland already.

New Conservatives are gaining ground but probably too little, too late.

Maori Party have to win an electorate to get back in.

Advance NZ make their first showing but are a long way from the threshold.

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9 Comments

  1. Can National find a way of governing from here?

    Reply
    • They look a long way off any chance of governing. Even with ACT they are currently about 10% short.

      Reply
    • Patricia

       /  22nd September 2020

      Can’t see it.

      Reply
      • Kimbo

         /  22nd September 2020

        They said the same thing about ScoMo before the last Australian election, albeit in very different circumstances and with different personalities and issues. Highly unlikely to happen here in 2020, but you just never know…

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  22nd September 2020

          There was about 1.5%between the main parties in Australia… Regional differences mattered and Palmer spent $50 mill to sabotage labour running his own party which got 3.5% of the vote and more importantly directed their prferences to the Liberals, in Queensland the Palmer UAP and one nation got 15-20% of the vote in critical seats. Most ended up with the MPs of the liberal- national party

          Reply
  2. duperez

     /  22nd September 2020

    Farrar acknowledged a poll as soon as it came out! Looking on the bright side of course:

    “Obviously still a great result for Labour, despite dropping 5%. But if they drop another 5% then it gets interesting.”

    Reply
    • Yes, but interesting for who? National seem to have stagnated at best. Greens are benefiting from the Labour drop, which won’t help National at all.

      Even if National go up 5 to 36%, add ACT and that’s only low forties, still about 5% short.

      Reply
      • duperez

         /  22nd September 2020

        It’s interesting for the punters – him saying/suggesting significant enough changes could happen to make it ‘interesting.’

        Anything could happen. But it’s like being 8 points behind, 5 metres from your own line with 1:30 on the clock and being up-beat about your chances. And you’re not even sure you’ve got the ball.

        Reply
      • Duker

         /  22nd September 2020

        If national goes up it’s likely that ACT will go down…
        Remember there polls still have margin of error National could be around 35% or below 30%

        Reply

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