Looking grim for Peters and NZ First

Both poor poll results and also a lack of traction in media are pointing increasingly towards NZ First being dumped from Parliament this year, and with the lack of energy and lack of success for Peters this campaign that would likely mean the end of his long political career.

Peters first stood (unsuccessfully) for Parliament in 1975, and became a National MP in 1978 after winning a High Court electoral petition that overturned the election night result.

He left National in 1993 and retained his Tauranga seat as an Independent MP in a by-election, after which he established the NZ First Party.

Peters and NZ First unexpectedly enabled the National Bolger government in 1996, but he broke off the coalition, and NZ First were punished in the 1999 election, failing to make the threshold (they got 4.4%). The party survived through Peters retaining his electorate.

NZ First formed another coalition in 2005, this time with Helen Clark’s Labour government.

In 2008, NZ First was again punished by voters, coming short of the threshold with 4.07% of the votes. Poll results were relatively flat:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2008_New_Zealand_general_election

Peters also lost his Tauranga electorate (to Simon Bridges) so NZ First failed to make it back into Parliament.

NZ First made it back into Parliament in 2011 after a late surge in support, after Peters, aided by the media, made the most of the ‘tea pot tapes’ controversy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_New_Zealand_general_election

In the 2014 NZ First increased their vote to 8.66% with support increasing during the campaign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2014_New_Zealand_general_election

In the three months up to the election NZ First poll results ranged from 3.4 to 8.4% with most being over the threshold.

In 2017, up to when Andrew Little handed over the Labour leadership to Jacinda Ardern, NZ First were often polling over 10% and up to 13%, but they dropped off a bit ending up with 7.2%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_general_election

This time Peters keeps rubbishing the polls, but it’s unlikely they are all wrong. His big play last week, playing a well worn race card, failed to make much impression. That may have been his last chance to play a get into Parliament free card.

The poll trend looks bad for NZ FirstL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

Splashing money around the provinces via the Provincial Growth Fund doesn’t seem to have helped. Money doesn’t seem to buy elections in New Zealand.

Shane Jones seems to have given up in the Northland electorate where a poll showed him trailing in third place. He has a reputation for not being a diligent campaigner anyway,.

So the campaign has been left to Peters. He has been busy touring the country but has just failed to fire.

Even Grey Power seem to have tired of Peters.

Stuff: Collins goes on the offensive at public meeting in Nelson

National Party leader Judith Collins went on the offensive at a packed public meeting in Nelson, taking aim at the Government’s “tremendously stupid” decision-making.

The event was organised by Grey Power, with most of those in attendance belonging to the older demographic.

Since getting 3% in a Roy Morgan poll in March NZ First has been under that, and got only 1% in the latest Colmar Brunton poll, down from 2.4% last week. In between those polls they were 1.9% in a Reid Research poll.

It’s possible a miracle may happen but time is running out for Peters to find something to grab the limelight. And history is against NZ First, as they have done poorly after being in Government twice in the past.

Peters will have to try something a lot more positive than ‘we’ll stop Labour doing stuff’, but it looks like he simply can’t compete with Ardern’s popularity that he has in part enabled.

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32 Comments

  1. John J Harrison

     /  29th September 2020

    Absolutely bloody wonderful.
    The end of the greatest charlatan to ever enter parliament.
    Here’s hoping the Green’s end up on Election Day with 4.9% ( after overseas votes have been tabulated.)
    Then it will be up to the adults to steer us out of the worst recession in living memory.

    Reply
    • duperez

       /  29th September 2020

      In the event of your last sentence scenario would you be waiting for a call? 😊

      Reply
      • John J Harrison

         /  29th September 2020

        I fully expect a call from Judith.
        Providing my two lovely Thai caregivers can accompany me to the hallowed halls in Wellington I would gladly accept the position as Minister of Foreign Affairs !
        Here’s hoping.

        Reply
        • duperez

           /  29th September 2020

          Rather than going straight into the head sherang’s job maybe a stint helping overseas overseas first would be a good run up. Five years on Pitcairn Island should suit.😉

          Reply
          • John J Harrison

             /  29th September 2020

            Not so.
            That is below my station in life – as you know !
            If I attain the position of Minister of Foreign Affaires I will take it upon myself to appoint an intellectual giant from the current cabinet.
            Right now it is a toss – up between Willy Jackson and Kelvin Davies.
            Your assistance in choosing one of these two would be of great assistance.

            Reply
            • duperez

               /  29th September 2020

              Stationmaster in your own station in life!

              Pity the railways been mothballed closed and obsolete. 😊

    • Duker

       /  29th September 2020

      ” adults to steer us out of the worst recession ”
      Already happened , when the next Quarter numbers are released it will be the biggest bounce back in our history ( similar has happened overseas)

      Your numbers dont add up . …Judiths 33% Plus Acts 8% doesnt make it to 50% plus.
      The MMP count for the seats distributes the ‘wasted vote’ to the remaining parties, so that say 10% ‘wasted vote’ is worth 12 seats , then labour gets six of those during the MMP seat allocation.

      Majority in parliament without 50% of vote and no greens
      hahahahaha

      Reply
      • John J Harrison

         /  29th September 2020

        Do keep up.
        We were talking about the trend.
        Labour trending down, National and ACT trending higher.
        Could be a close run thing.
        If I am the in – coming Minister of Foreign Affaires how would you like a 3 year stint in Outer Mongolia ?
        If accepted it would increase the average IQ in both countries!

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  29th September 2020

          There is no trend for national…their numbers are just bouncing around the margin of error (+- 3.6%) when you look at the now weekly polls.
          CB is also previously been ‘higher’ for National than the election night for 2017 . they said 46% when they were 44 on the night, labour there were spot on and NZF they said were out with 4.9% ( they got 7.2%)

          See the picture , Nats too high , Labour right on , NZF wayoff.

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  29th September 2020

            Yes, too soon to pick a trend except it is clearly not dropping in the way PG’s chart portrayed the other day. It’s been more or less flat for several months.

            Reply
          • Duker

             /  29th September 2020

            You could be the NZ representative to Mar a lago in Florida…any good at golf, but not too good?
            It would be punishment enough when you cant leave.

            Reply
            • John J Harrison

               /  29th September 2020

              Duker, you are closer than you think with your stunning repartee.
              Pre Covid I travelled every year to Key West, the Southern most city where the city’s motto is “ Age Disgracefully .”
              The best little city in Trump Land.
              After a month up to NYC for a month then Lost Wages for a week.
              Visited 36 states altogether and loved every one.
              That’s why I asked Bolger’s secretary for the DC ambassadorial position as a reward for having Michael Laws resign from parliament. Ha Ha !
              But I did score a wonderful lunch with the late Mike Moore and his wife at their DC residence 7 years ago.

            • Duker

               /  29th September 2020

              Key West voted for Clinton, so not Trumpland

            • John J Harrison

               /  29th September 2020

              [Deleted, don’t do personal attacks here. PG]
              For some obscure reason you have an unhealthy interest in what I do and where I choose to go.
              I couldn’t give a stuff if Key West was Republican or Democrat.
              I am only interested in the people I meet and have known for years.
              Likewise for NYC or LV – who the hell cares apart from Neanderthals?
              [Deleted], live as good a life as you can and stop taking a personal interest in my travels and connections.
              [Deleted] if you follow my sage advice.

            • duperez

               /  29th September 2020

              JJH: Humour us by giving us a warning when you’re going to drop us some sage advice. I’m got a Rosemary if you’ve got the thyme. Do what you lie with the parsley.😊

          • You’re being both very selective and also inaccurate.

            In 2017 CB had National at 40% (9-14 Sep) and 46% (15-19 Sep). The election date was 23 Sep but about half the votes were cast early (in the 2 weeks preceeding).

            National actually got 44.4%, which is fairly close to the mark.

            The last two CB polls for Labour were 44% and 37%, and their result was 36.9%

            Their last two polls for NZ First were 6% and 4.9%, with a result of 7.2%. That probably reflects late uncertainties and late decision making, not surprising for NZF.

            The last Reid Research poll for NZF (13-20 Sep) was 7.1%, close to spot on. Their last poll to date this time (16-23 Sep) was 1.9%.

            By your sort of reckoning surely that should look grim for NZF.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  29th September 2020

              Im only using the pre election poll and election. Its not being being selective as thats the only one we can compare with , your guesstimates about earlier mean nothing
              The pre election voting is very close to the vote on the day ( National a little bit higher) so there is only speculation that earlier polls reflect pre voting… completely without evidence.

              I said CB had National was 2% too high Labour spot on…which it was .
              And admit it CB was wildly out for NZF. Its way beyond the margin of error at that level
              Then there is this from 2017 final results…
              “The National Party has 56 seats compared with 58 on election night.
              • The Labour Party has 46 seats compared with 45 on election night.
              • The Green Party has 8 seats compared with 7 on election night.
              Special votes are 440k and clearly further diminish nationals share

  2. Good riddance!

    Reply
  3. Kimbo

     /  29th September 2020

    Yeah, he should be gone after polling day…but won’t believe it until a proverbial stake is driven through his heart and his coffin is sealed shut and buried. And even then I’ll be stocking up on garlic for 2023…or any by election before! 😳😂

    Despise the man, or more precisely his politics/self serving populism, but you’ve got to give him respect where it is due as one of the great survivors

    Reply
  4. Corky

     /  29th September 2020

    The thing is, Peters will still have many options open to him post his departure from parliment. He aready does lots of work for Maori off the books. Being out of office may give him time to get on every quango going and milk the taxpayer dry…again.

    Reply
    • Kimbo

       /  29th September 2020

      Bryan Henry on the other hand faces a severe drop off in tax-payer funded legal billing! 😳😂

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  29th September 2020

        Henry also does some pro bono work. So not all bad.

        Reply
      • Duker

         /  29th September 2020

        Not so. Peters claim against Bennett, Tolley and MSD was self funded. Peters wasnt a minister at the time and he instigated it.
        The appeal is in progress but not yet before 3 judges , and Peters has a habit and Henry has the legal brains to reverse a high court judges farrago that ‘no surprises’ has legal standing

        Your Peters derangement ‘slip’ is showing a bit

        Reply
    • duperez

       /  29th September 2020

      Ah, he’s to be an impersonator! The new Jenny Shipley!!😂

      “The Government appointed former National Prime Minister Jenny Shipley and three others to a Canterbury quake panel without advertising the roles and is paying them more than twice the normal rate.”

      Reply
  5. Alan Wilkinson

     /  29th September 2020

    Winston’s face looks like it is made of rubber and so does his career. He’ll slip into history as our greatest maverick but leave little behind except some full ashtrays.

    Reply
    • One has to give him credit for being a sport when he heard that Labour had done a uey, even if a Claytons one, over Tiwai Point in the most blatant vote-buying exercise of all time.

      Even the PM looked sheepish when she announced it.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  29th September 2020

        Isnt it also against National free enterprise principles to be assisting a foreign business at all – didnt English call it last time… Never again.
        Some have called Collins the ‘new Muldoon’ for exactly those reasons.. she pick winners, move the goal posts and pork barrel all it takes to get the vote more than she started with.

        ACTs discount for power lines doesnt make any sense. Dont they realise , having never been there, that there is two parallel high voltage lines on separate strings of pylons from Manapouri to Bluff now. A new private line would require the same which is commercial nonsense.

        Each one has 2 circuits of 3 cables ( one for each phase) which makes 4 circuits in case one trips then there is enough circuits to deliver full power.
        No single other industrial high consumer has such an expensive fail safe system. Not NZ Steel , not Kinleith or Kawerau, they have the standard dual circuits. Cook Str cables are the only other NZ connection with 2 parallel cables . Thats for the entire countrys grid not a single user and the line from Benmore is a single string of pylons each with the standard dual circuits, lose one circuit and you lose half the power transmission.

        Reply

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