1 News Colmar Brunton poll – little change

A 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll (with the previous two polls from 17-21 September and 23-27 September in brackets):

  • Labour 47% (48, 47)
  • National 32% (31, 33)
  • ACT 8% (7, 8)
  • Greens 6% (6, 7)
  • NZ First 2.4% (2.4, 1.4)
  • TOP 2% (1.1, 1.0)
  • New Conservatives 1% (1.6, 1.4)
  • Advance NZ 1% (0.8, 0.6)
  • Maori Party 0.2 (0.9, 0.8)

Polling period 3-7 October 2020.

Very little change there from two weeks ago. Party support seems to have set in with little moving it.

National+Act on 40% still well short of challenging Labour or Labour+Greens.

Greens look ok but will still be worried about the threshold, especially if they underperform polling as they have done in some elections. And Labour may stop them picking up as many overseas votes.

NZ First still look to have failed to fire this time. Today’s news of the NZ First foundation in court again won’t help.

New Conservatives claimed to be polling around 4 but no published poll comes anywhere near that.

Advance NZ aren’t \making much progress.

Don’t know or refused 13% (up 2) – but these tend to not change the numbers much.

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern 50% (54, 54)
  • Judith Collins 23% (20, 23)
  • David Seymour 2% (2, 2)
  • Winston Peters 1% (2, 1)

Don’t know or refused 17% (up 3).

Up to yesterday 478,860 people had already voted.


There is a small party debate on TV1 tonight from 7-8pm, not sure why it is shorter than the two leader debates with more leaders participating.

Leave a comment


  1. John J Harrison

     /  8th October 2020

    Heartening to see the Green’s stagnating to irrelevancy as they poll up to 2% less on Election Day.
    Hopefully the 13% undecided will make the RIGHT decision!

  2. Duker

     /  8th October 2020

    Here comes the ‘what about ism’ this time the undecideds.

    Previous years polls show they arent much to worry about as the polls themselves just allocate them the way the rest of the voters go.
    True undecideds just dont vote, why would they.

    well we can say the National MPs who were promised internal party poll numbers by Collins when she took …now broken the promise… will know where they are , mainly because a lot of them are going to be out on their ear after the 3 months post election pay runs out.

  3. Corky

     /  8th October 2020

    So what the poll is really saying is that all eyes should be on the Greens and the undecided voters?? It looks like all other party trends have solidified. The last poll before the election will be fascinating.

    • lurcher1948

       /  8th October 2020

      Who’s this “crusher Collins “the right talk about,SO YESTERDAY…now Jacinda Ardern,middle aged and so today,that crusher person is nearly on a pension,an ancient

    • Duker

       /  8th October 2020

      Undecideds don’t vote corky….no need to fret about result, the act-TU-national Axis is out for another 3 years and 15 Nat mps out of a job

      • Corky

         /  8th October 2020

        ”Undecideds don’t vote corky.”

        Don’t listen to what experts say…think for yourself. Who told you undecided voters don’t vote?
        I’m sure there is a solid group of undecided voters who don’t vote. But you don’t really know..neither do I .

        You seem to think I worry about the RIGHT losing. I don’t. I worry about them winning. Why you would be cheering another three years of Labour is beyond me. The next term will be a hospital pass for whoever is in power.

        But of course you already know how I feel about the election. I have posted numerous times on it.


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