Small party leaders’ debate

Five smaller party leaders had a debate on TV1 last night. It was for just an hour (the multiple Ardern v Collins debates are for one and a half hours) and with numerous advertising breaks there was probably just forty minutes for the five to try to swing some votes their way.

David Seymour – ACT Party (2017 election 0.5%, Sep-Oct 2020 polls 7, 6.3, 8, 8)

Seymour is now a practiced campaigner and usually spoke well. A funny moment was when he exclaimed that Peters )”said I am out of date”. While some of his policies probably be widely supported they will resonate with enough to have get votes. He has done well to lift ACT to current levels.

James Shaw – Green Party (2017 6.3%, Sep-Oct 2020 polls 6, 6.5, 7, 6)

This debate was Shaw’s turn (Marama Davidson did the Nation debate) and he should have pleased Green supporters. He spoke clearly and sensibly to more than the Green constituency), and even pulled the debate back on topic. A good performance that should help Green chances.

Winston Peters – NZ First (2017 7.2%, Sep-Oct 2020 polls 2.4, 1.9, 1.4, 2)

Peters looked out of sorts and out of place – not so much fish out of water but more like a crocodile in a pond of the past. He mentioned last century much more than what he do if re-elected. He tried to play as an underdog, perhaps hoping people will forget his top dog performance in installing the Labour-led government along with pork barrel policy funds that seem to have fizzled. He again claimed nonsensically that everyone in the party had been completely exonerated by the SFO prosecution of NZ First Foundation.

Peters has swung back to campaigning as ‘we the government have done well” rather than attacking Labour and saying he would restrict them (again), but didn’t look really that energised or optimistic, more aged, jaded and fading.

John Tamihere – Maori Party (2017 1.2%, Sep-Oct 2020 polls 0.9, 1.5, 0.8, <1)

Made some good points about education for Maori but waffled fairly aimlessly too much, or maybe i am just not his target market. Seems resigned to not getting into Parliament via the list, with all his party hopes on winning one or two electorates (reports are they are close in polls in at least one).

Jamie-Lee Ross – Advance NZ (2017 didn’t stand, Sep-Oct 2020 polls 0.8 NR, 0.6, 1)

Interesting that he fronted up, presumably due to his political experience, but he is tainted goods and is absence the charisma of Billy Te Kahika. Tried when he was given the opportunity to speak but won’t have impressed many, probably not even supporters of his composite party. Claimed that Covid was similar to the flu, that line has been discredited many times. Looks like a futile exercise with Advance NZ not rising above one in polls despite significant social media support.

So with just Shaw and Seymour looking good this fits with the likely outcome of a Labour, Green, Act and National parliament, with the Maori Party a long shot for an electorate seat or two.

Up until the debate last night over half a million people will have already voted. It’s hard to understand why this debate was held so late in the campaign. It looks like most people who might vote are already decided.

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18 Comments

  1. John J Harrison

     /  9th October 2020

    Pete, good summation.
    Again, I was impressed with the adjudicator, all three debates I have seen they have been extremely fair.
    Which was a pleasant surprise.
    The key as I see it is the Greens.
    If they fail to get 5% then there is a good chance of right leaning coalition.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  9th October 2020

      No chance of right leaning coalition….. missing the 5% cut for Greens means more wasted votes , which when the seats are allocated go to the other parties pro rata… which means labour gets the largest share and gets 61 or more for the seats in parliament. A win
      National and ACT are well behind labour alone…..

      if there really was a chance Farrar would be spinning it in his blog from last nights poll results , instead theres a story about Waste collection in the Hutt.!

      Reply
      • Farrar seems uninterested in promoting Collins or National as a whole. He has favoured Act, and tried a few attacks on Labour, but it all seems to be quite ho-hum and is unlikey to impact on voters.

        Reply
        • Patzcuaro

           /  9th October 2020

          Farrar is reading the tea leaves and probably wants to distance himself from a negative outcome

          Reply
          • Corky

             /  9th October 2020

            Why would he want to do that?

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  9th October 2020

              Hes out of the loop…..hehehehe

              Ive used the Elections NZ Calculator with the Colmar Brunton main poll results from the other night, and importantly added the 5% to small parties plus 2% NZF that is wasted

              It gives Labour 61 seats when it has 47% of the vote and they dont ‘need’ the Greens at all. Greens going below 5% increases the wasted vote considerably so Labour gets more than 61 seats
              If the Greens go to 4.9% and their vote is wasted then Labour gets 65 seatson those numbers
              https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator/
              You need to have 100% of the vote in the calc to allocate seats properly

              This story in RNZ which says labour at 47% would need the Greens is WRONG, they get 61 seats
              https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/427953/week-in-politics-collins-faces-problem-as-labour-holds-poll-lead

            • Patzcuaro

               /  9th October 2020

              From Kiwiblog the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced tonight at 11pm with the WHO, Greta Thunberg and Jacinda Ardern as favourites with Trump fourth favourite. An Ardern victory would seal the election.

            • Corky

               /  9th October 2020

              You mean he has an ego and isn’t very prescient.

          • Duker

             /  9th October 2020

            Farrar is going all in on the campaign now

            “the extremely un user friendly Facebook process to get authorised to do political ads.
            Am just doing a trial run with the ad with a $50 spend and once that is done, will push go on the full campaign. ”

            Must have smears all lined up ready to go….its like 2008 all over again

            Reply
            • This is where he organised donations:
              https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/10/lets_get_this_seen.html

              To promote this:

            • Duker

               /  9th October 2020

              A Lot seem to be his opinion of what the promise was ‘over the first 3 years’
              Free tertiary fees ‘lead to 15% enrolment boost’ ?
              Not really in the ‘core promise’ on that…
              His other other error is that is for level 3 and above so includes apprentices and even some advanced truck driving and hair dressors course. ‘Tertiary’ usually starts at level 5

              national always recalibrated its ‘targets’ when they fell behind, so a new number was announced which was further out, labour has done the same. Its the usual political puffery

  2. Patzcuaro

     /  9th October 2020

    Even without the Greens Labour has, based on the latest Colmar Brunton poll, 47 while National 32 and ACT 8 makes 40. National still needs to take 4 points off Labour, all this assuming the Greens fail to reach 5% or win Auckland Central. Maybe it is time for Auckland Central to vote strategically like the voters in Epsom.

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  9th October 2020

      Epsom voters went for Act long before it was strategic to do so, from 2005 Act was 1st and National 2nd
      Greens are a distant 3rd in Auckland Central, while National and Labour are way ahead for top 2

      Reply
    • Corky

       /  9th October 2020

      Nothings impossible. I personally would like to see Labour govern alone. Should that happen, the backslapping would go on for weeks, and rightly so.

      Reply
  3. Corky

     /  9th October 2020

    I don’t know what’s wrong with John Tamihere. During his talkback years he expounded his views on politics quite succinctly.

    According to John the voting public will never vote into power a mono centric Maori politician who is independent of the major parties.

    When challenged by callers that councils and political parties have a host of members who are of Maori descent, John replied that they must tow the party line and there is still little in the way of policy to help Maori or challenge the pakeha status quo.

    So, ironically, here’s John having proven his point by not gaining a seat on Auckland Council, leading the Maori party on the road to nowhere. The Maori Party must be his last port of call for gaining the baubles and mana of political office.

    There’s a much darker ( no pun) side to this political reality John has outlined. That factor has tried to be exploited by various Maori. But all attempts have failed. However, there will come a time when a charismatic Maori person may arise and unite Maori. At the moment the only thing stopping that happening and keeping our country safe is tribalism.

    Reply
    • John J Harrison

       /  9th October 2020

      Corky, Tamihere is a blatant racist who refuses to accept personal responsibility is the key to success in both politics and life in general.
      He wants a separatist country where part – Maori run their own system of justice , education, taxes etc.
      He conveniently forgets that part – Maori lead the ACT, NZ First and Green parties, with the dynamic Davies being deputy leader of Labour.
      Our Governor General and Chief Justice are also part – Maori.
      Being 1/64 th Maori allows him to continually wallow in victim hood and demanding ( with menaces) $ Billions in Koha from whitey.
      Compared to Reti and his upbringing, Tamihere is a world class loser.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  9th October 2020

        We already have ‘group’ who run their own schools, justice system, prisons

        Its called the Military, the Police are an almost separate fief within NZ as well.

        Reply
    • Fight4nz

       /  9th October 2020

      So we need to be kept safe from Shane Reti and David Seymour?

      Reply

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