Open Forum Saturday

This post is open to anyone to comment on any topic that isn’t spam, illegal or offensive. All Your NZ posts are open but this one is for you to raise topics that interest you, or you think may interest others.. 

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37 Comments

    • David

       /  10th October 2020

      So delighted a bloated bureaucracy with an extremely well rewarded top tier management team has been rewarded for just doing their job.
      This is as well deserved as Obama,s.

      Reply
      • Gerrit

         /  10th October 2020

        No sarcasm tag?

        Reply
      • duperez

         /  10th October 2020

        Just doing your job means awards come our way? We should try that in New Zealand.

        Twice a year would be good, say, at the start of the year and around about the middle.

        I’ve been burrowing away for a while, just doing my job and a couple of other things, I could even get one. 😊

        Reply
  1. Duker

     /  10th October 2020

    There goes the theory it should only go for peace between warring states…
    I suppose the bookies collect as the ‘favourites’ fall away( even though no one knows the short list)…a real scam

    Reply
    • I assume that that snide comment is aimed at me, although I did not say that it should ONLY go for making peace between warring countries.

      Reply
      • From the Nobel Prize website; ‘In so far as certain names crop up in the advance speculation as to who will be awarded any given year’s prize, this is either guesswork or information put out by the person or persons behind the nomination.’

        It should have been obvious that simply being a PM of a country that has one of the lowest numbers of C19 (mainly because we are islands) does not qualify anyone for a peace prize.

        Reply
        • Fight4nz

           /  10th October 2020

          Actually I would have thought it had more to do with handling of the mosque attacks and gun control. So we are not now the target of the wrath of the international web of jihadists seeking revenge which was exceedingly likely for a brief period. Peacemaking at its best.

          Reply
          • That was last year. This is 2020. Do try to keep up.

            The speculation was that she had been nominated because NZ has less C19 than many other countries, but this is hardly one person’s doing.

            Reply
      • Duker

         /  10th October 2020

        “although I did not say that it should ONLY go for making peace between warring countries.”

        No you didnt say that at all
        “I’d be surprised if any of those won the Peace Prize; they don’t fit the criteria. The PM has not brought peace to warring countries and nor has Greta Thunberg.”

        You said they dont fit the criteria, AND the ONLY criteria you mentioned was ‘peace between warring countries’…. no extensions or suggestions it was more than that , even though the evidence suggests other wise.
        A phrase Ive heard the Nobel Committee use is…;”increase the fraternity between nations”
        So your overblown denial is just as false as your original claim…which was poppycock

        Reply
        • What a nitpicking troll you are. You are coming across as a stalker; this is rather creepy and makes me thankful that we can use pseudonyms.

          The italics are yours, not mine.

          I mentioned one criterion (criteria is the plural of the singular, criterion) This doesn’t mean that there IS only one. The fact that I used the plural shows that there are a number of criteria, not one criterion I can’t help your ignorance of the meaning of criteria. Buy a dictionary.

          I also said somewhere that NZ is not involved in any global negotiations, which is true.If it isn’t, please tell where these are.

          My comments above are very short; hardly ‘overblown denials’. The only ‘denial’ was denying your lying statement. If you lie about someone, you can’t be surprised that they refute the lie.

          Reply
  2. Gerrit

     /  10th October 2020

    At last an honest assessment of why house prices will continue to rise.

    “Central Government controls the migration levers and benefits from the GST and income taxes generated by fast population growth through migration, but councils control the infrastructure levers and resent having to invest heavily upfront when their main revenue source is rates, which only arrive well after the initial investment.

    The end result over the last two decades was the Beehive pulled the migration lever for fast population growth and did not fund the infrastructure investment to cope with it.”

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300128352/were-stuck-on-a-path-of-house-price-rises-that-is-hard-to-get-off

    “Councils were unable to control migration, but were forced to deal with the growth consequences without any mechanisms to quickly pay for it, other than increasingly expensive DCs or higher debts and rates bills that ratepayers would not accept. Councils have called for the Beehive to share GST receipts at least so they can lift the revenue part of their debt limits and borrow more, but none of the major parties and certainly not Treasury trust the councils to spend it properly.”

    The answer lies in what was done after the Christchurch earthquake

    ” Many of these problems were solved in Christchurch for a time after the earthquakes because the Government bypassed the RMA to force the Chirstchurch, Selwyn and Waimakariri Councils to open up 30 years of land supply in one hit and helped fund the infrastructure needed to make it happen.

    The Government essentially broke two of its own sets of rules to dismantle the roadblock: it suspended the RMA and invested much more central Government money than it normally would in local infrastructure needed for housing. Its excuse was a national crisis and the need to rebuild the city. The more affordable housing was helpful side-effect, rather than the main aim.”

    Reply
    • Fight4nz

       /  10th October 2020

      Certainly agree the context given in the first half, and the circumstances of Christchurch did show freeing up land can work.
      But why does it ignore the fact that accelerated migration is the fundamental cause and is directly controllable? Given only returnees are arriving now and in dwindling numbers the current bubble will burst. As soon as it does the foreign money we are currently awash with and investors will cut their losses freeing more supply and levels based on local incomes can be reestablished.
      Then you can look at supply. And why the RMA has allowed 30% of the country’s crop suitable land to be buried under residential developments.

      Reply
      • Gerrit

         /  10th October 2020

        Not to sure if the returning New Zealanders is an urban myth or not. If we look at the figures

        https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/migration

        Immigration surged after the 2017 election (despite Labour/NZFirst promises to curtail) and dropped markedly in Jun2020.

        Meaning borders were open until Jun 2020 despite claims to the contrary.

        The flood of NZ returning home could be the little spike after Jan 2020, hard to tell from the figures. Though that spike is 1000 extra people from Jan 2020 (16,000) to Mar 2020 (17,000)

        Interestingly the upward curve for immigration started in Apr 2019.

        Reply
        • Alan Foster

           /  10th October 2020

          Graph shows that immigration didn’t “surge” until April 2019???

          Reply
          • Gerrit

             /  10th October 2020

            How do you read the graph???

            Apr 2019 11,670 immigration versus 8,140 departed — var +3,530
            Mar 2020 17,820 immigration versus 6,440 departed — var +11,380

            That is a major variation (surge) of increased immigration PER MONTH). Unfortunately we don’t know if they were returning New Zealander’s or new settlers.

            However as the borders were closed in Mar 2020 to all excepts returning New Zealander’s the drop in immigration from Mar 2020 to Apr 2020 (1,270 people versus departed 1.080 — var +190) indicates not many flocked home.

            Yet no infrastructure is being build (including housing) or was built to cater for this number on people settling here prior to the borders closing.

            Reply
        • Conspiratoor

           /  10th October 2020

          Another broken promise

          “Labour has promised to reduce net migration by 20,000-30,000 a year, implying a cut to 40,000 to 50,000 from the current level of about 70,000”

          Speaking on TV3’s The Nation, Ms Ardern reiterated Labour’s policy.
          “She said all three parties had common ground in the view that increased immigration was putting pressure on infrastructure”

          And it is worth noting when she threw migration into overdrive in April 2019, covid hadn’t entered the frame

          https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/ardern-new-govt-will-follow-labours-immigration-policy-not-nz-firsts-ck-209058

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  10th October 2020

            Your graph is monthly figures while you talk about yearly numbers…do try harder to make sense of it all.
            Plus your link isnt the graph mentioned and doesnt support the yearly numbers after the election.
            The election is end of 2017 so there is 9 months of previous approvals in the system before any changes come into effect

            Reply
            • Conspiratoor

               /  10th October 2020

              Go away and annoy corky. Hes got more time to deal with your silly hairsplitting than I have

            • Duker

               /  10th October 2020

              [Deleted. I’m not going to keep warning you, you know well enough. PG]

        • Fight4nz

           /  10th October 2020

          I would guess the initial 2017 surge may be a rush brought on by expectations the new government was going to do something. Winston in particular seems to be paying a heavy price that nothing was done.
          The maintained level of arrivals since borders closed in March is all returnees.

          Reply
    • Blazer

       /  10th October 2020

      QE and low interest rates are the root cause of housing inflation.

      In a world awash with ‘money’ RE as an asset class is the first option.

      Reply
      • Gerrit

         /  10th October 2020

        Unfettered immigration (see the linked graph), where more people were allowed to settle without adequate infrastructure (including housing) provisions is and will continue to be the major cause.

        QE and low interest rates are trying to be used to fund new infrastructure (including housing) as councils have reached their debt limits Low interest rates are to prod people into buying houses that don’t exist. Hence the article linked describes it as a perfect storm.

        Reply
        • Blazer

           /  10th October 2020

          So if interest rates were 7-8% do you still think the same prices would be maintained?

          Reply
          • Gerrit

             /  10th October 2020

            Totally depends upon the buyer and seller. If a buyer is willing to pay those rates to get a property, yes.

            If the seller is willing to sell at a level where the buyer is able to repay, yes.

            The market always decides.

            It is interesting that those who equate a CGT with dropping house prices are never able to explain how this is supposed to happen.

            If the family home is exempt only developers for new houses will be hit (existing house flippers are already covered for taxes by the bright line 5 year taxation) and add those costs onto the price of developing a new subdivision.

            Reply
            • Alan Foster

               /  10th October 2020

              To me. CGT isn’t about lowering the house prices, it’s about people paying tax on the money they’ve received (when they sell an investment)
              BTW, this would affect me with my rental flat, if & when I sell.

            • Gerrit

               /  10th October 2020

              So CGT will have no effect to pricing. It will though, on state revenue collection which in your case the state could not bank on receiving at any time soon.

              The state is therefore unable to allocate your CGT tax towards any future programs of expenditure for it does not know when it will be collected not how much (if any).

              The market will set the price and the state will have to wait and see how much is in the coffers at your whim.

              The state will not be able to budget the expenditure till after you sell.

              Hence the TOP and Greens want a wealth tax for the state will set the value of your wealth and tax you accordingly. Even if the market collapses and your rentals are not worth the state valuation..

            • Duker

               /  10th October 2020

              Thats not right.
              Any investment class attracts more money when the returns are favourable …see what has happened with Kiwisaver.
              WE can see that bank term deposits would fall as the interest rates now are around 1% or so.
              Reducing the favourable tax treatmnet for housing would shift money away from property investment and into other classes.
              Thats already happened to a small extent with the bright line test moved out to 5 years , and some years back English removed the depreciation for housing ( which was used as a scam). Labour also has ring fenced negative gearing losses for housing investors.
              All these things have made housing as a class less attractive , but might not affect the little guy with a single house or flat as investment.

              Real estate agents are flogging the horse to pretend their is a housing boom, firts they said its returning expats ( its not we only 1000 pm of those now ,precovid it was 5000 pm , gross numbers, not nett)
              I see that agents in NSW are keeping auction prices secret, normally they are released to media the same week. It seems they only want the good prices released. Pretty sure similar could be happening here… websites that have recent sales have sold but price with held indicator.

            • Blazer

               /  10th October 2020

              The market always decides is bunk um.
              The market is constantly being manipulated.
              A major correction would have the banks needing bailout again.

            • Fight4nz

               /  10th October 2020

              The market does. So the number of buyers for a property at a given price will be reduced if those buyers incur high interest rates in addition.
              Likewise the number of investors will be less when returns are reduced by the imposition of CGT.
              Less demand prices fall.

            • Duker

               /  10th October 2020

              The explosion of migrants in the last few years has pushed up rents which has allowed landlords to reap a harvest when the cutoff of overseas buyers and other changes should have reduced the previous overheated market. Now its the realisation the interest rates are looking to stay low has made those with secure jobs its a great time to upgarde

      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  10th October 2020

        Low interest rates provide the means but bureaucratic controls and costs provide the incentive.

        That’s why other assets haven’t escalated in parallel.

        Reply
        • Duker

           /  10th October 2020

          Wrong …have you looked at the share index in last six months…. proves the complete falsity of your claim
          https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/stock-market

          Reply
          • Alan Wilkinson

             /  10th October 2020

            The last six months isn’t the relevant comparison. The strangulation of supply dates back several decades.

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  10th October 2020

              National did the SHA policy which got the councils to process 50K sections through the RMA…so a huge success…
              well no the real problem wasnt the land consents and councils thats some think but the land bankers just sat back on their newly more valuable land and didnt apply to build anything like 50k houses. As landbankers are land rich but lacked the capital to be able to create something , and take on the higher risk.
              When I worked in that area we would see it time and time again, get the RMA consent and sit on it or sell it ..often for 5-15 sections.

  3. Corky

     /  10th October 2020

    Doctors are losing the plot and starting to panic.This is both a good and bad thing. It’s opening up the idea to doctors that the standard medical treatments don’t always work.
    It’s bad in that medication and treatments not monitored can have serious consequences.

    https://www.propublica.org/article/doctors-are-hoarding-unproven-coronavirus-medicine-by-writing-prescriptions-for-themselves-and-their-families

    Reply
    • Duker

       /  10th October 2020

      way way out of date .. Mar 24 when very little knowledge of effective treatments were known
      ‘Demand for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine surged over the past several days as President Donald Trump …”

      Reply

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