Trump battles trade and Covid effects, but stokes a bigger battle

It looks like Donald Trump has an uphill battle to retain the presidency. Contracting Covid has been an obvious setback, but trade tariffs imposed by Trump as well as his general behaviour had already made re-election difficult for him.

But militia style battles, encouraged by Trump, may pose major problems post-election.

FiveThirtyEight currently forecasts a 15 in 100 chance of Trump winning in Biden is favored to win the election – and this has dropped from 30% on 1 September, 24% on 15 September and 20% on 1 October just as he tested positive for Covid.

There does appear to be a Covid effect. Reuters: With pandemic dominating U.S. election, older voters turning away from Trump

Many older Americans have turned away from President Donald Trump this year as the coronavirus ravages the country, eroding an important Republican support base that helped propel him into the White House in 2016, Reuters/Ipsos polling data shows.

Trump and his Democratic opponent Joe Biden now split American voters aged 55 years and older almost evenly: 47% say they are voting for Biden on Nov. 3 while 46% back Trump, according to Reuters/Ipsos national surveys in September and October.

Trump won the 55-plus age group by 13 percentage points in 2016, according to exit polls. Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential nominee in 2012, achieved the same margin.

Biden is beating Trump among older voters in Wisconsin by 10 points and drawing about the same amount of support as Trump is with that demographic in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida and Arizona, according to the state polls conducted in mid-September and early October.

Four years ago, Trump won older voters in each of those states by 10 to 29 points.

But before Covid Trump already had problems in some key states that helped him win the 2016 election.

Reuters: Trump steel tariffs bring job losses to swing state Michigan

President Donald Trump promised a new dawn for the struggling U.S. steel industry in 2016, and the lure of new jobs in Midwestern states including Michigan helped him eke out a surprise election win.

Trump’s strategy centered on shielding U.S. steel mills from foreign competition with a 25% tariff imposed in March 2018. He also promised to boost steel demand through major investments in roads, bridges and other infrastructure.

But higher steel prices resulting from the tariffs dented demand from the Michigan-based U.S. auto industry and other steel consumers. And the Trump administration has never followed through on an infrastructure plan.

Biden leads Trump in Michigan by 8 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos state opinion poll of likely voters conducted from Sept. 29 – Oct. 6, widening his lead from a few weeks earlier.

Nationally, the steel industry has been shedding jobs for the past year – since before the wider economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic – and now employs 1,900 fewer workers than it did when Trump took office, according to U.S. Labor Department data. 

While the tariffs failed to boost overall steel employment, economists say they created higher costs for major steel consumers – killing jobs at companies including Detroit-based automakers General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co.

The tariffs had a profound impact on steel consumers, industry experts say. All three Detroit automakers – General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV – have closed a plant in Michigan since January 2018, according to Kristin Dziczek, vice president of industry, labor and economics at the Center for Automotive Research. Both General Motors and Ford reported $1 billion each in increased steel cost in 2018.

Nationally, steel and aluminum tariffs resulted in at least 75,000 job losses in metal-using industries by the end of last year, according to an analysis by Lydia Cox, a Ph.D. candidate in economics at Harvard University, and Kadee Russ, an economics professor at the University of California, Davis.

In all, they estimated, the trade war had caused a net loss of 175,000 U.S. manufacturing jobs by mid-2019.

Trump made similar 2016 campaign promises to revive the ailing coal industry by rolling back environmental regulations. But that industry’s employment has dropped 9% since 2016, to about 46,000, as 66 coal plants – nearly a fifth of the U.S. total – have closed. The economic losses come despite the administration’s moves to ease restrictions including limits on carbon emissions and dumping coal waste into streams.

One (loose) group of voters does seem to support Trump.

FiveThirtyEight: How Trump And COVID-19 Have Reshaped The Modern Militia Movement

While established militias are kind of like a heavily armed scout troop — formal organizations with ranks and membership dues and training programs and regular meetings — some academics argue that many people who are falling into the militia movement’s orbit these days are more like loosely affiliated individuals.

So a crowd like the one that showed up in Kenosha can be made up of individuals, even strangers, with little connecting them except a shared interest in gun rights and a sense that they’re the only ones who can protect their community. And in these trying times — amid a pandemic and protests against racial injustice, plus a president who is giving them more public support than they’ve ever had from the national political establishment — those individuals are taking a collective turn in a direction that, experts fear, is likely to result in more violence.

The rise of President Trump, and the tumultuous events of 2020, have made it even more difficult to untangle what militias are doing and what their individual adherents believe. From the beginning of his candidacy, Trump’s rhetoric — his attacks on the “deep state” or the anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant insults that peppered his tweets and speeches — have resonated with and garnered public responses from people within the militia movement.

When Trump tweeted about an impending civil war or warned about threats from the left, it brought extremist theories and conversations into the national conversation. 

The pandemic — and the racial injustice protests that have roiled cities throughout the summer — appear to have brought even more people into the militia movement’s orbit. Suddenly, people were at home all day, feeling anxious and fearful about the future and spending a lot more time online. Many in the militia movement chafed at state lockdown orders, and started appearing, heavily armed, at state capitols across the country to protest what they saw as an assault on their individual freedoms. 

Fear and anxiety are predictors of people — particularly young people — turning towards extremism and violence, said Miller-Idriss. In that context, the conditions of the pandemic are a perfect culture for radicalism to grow. “We know from the research that unemployment itself does not lead to greater risk of engaging in extremist behaviors but economic precarity does,” she said. For the last six months, the entire country has lived on the edge of economic and social precarity. What if our institutions crumble? What if we can’t get our normal lives back? Extremist ideologies can offer meaning, purpose and a narrative of control when everything feels out of it.

The president’s rhetoric has fed into that, experts say. By the time he was elected, Trump was a hero to many in the militia movement. “Donald Trump has succeeded in being at once the head of government and the head of anti-government,” Rosenthal said. “It’s a remarkable thing, actually.”

With Trump saying both implicitly and explicitly that militias or even just armed individuals are the only thing standing between America and the chaos of a leftist takeover of the country, the promise of control becomes even stronger. It becomes a call to arms — one that more young Americans, sitting at home without school or even work, may try to answer.

This is a real problem for the US.

Inquirer (1 September): Trump’s promotion of armed militias risks stoking civil war

Claiming to be the law-and-order president, Trump is stoking racial tensions rather than seeking to calm them. He is encouraging armed supporters who show up in racially troubled towns and cities with their rifles at the ready.

He cheered on a pro-Trump caravan of trucks that drove into downtown Portland, Ore., Saturday as “GREAT PATRIOTS,” even though video showed them hurling paintballs and pepper spray and driving into protesters, leaving one dead from an unsolved shooting.

The Atlantic: A Pro-Trump Militant Group Has Recruited Thousands of Police, Soldiers, and Veterans

Stewart Rhodes was living his vision of the future. On television, American cities were burning, while on the internet, rumors warned that antifa bands were coming to terrorize the suburbs. Rhodes was driving around South Texas, getting ready for them. He answered his phone. “Let’s not fuck around,” he said. “We’ve descended into civil war.”

…Rhodes had been talking about civil war since he founded the Oath Keepers, in 2009. But now more people were listening. And whereas Rhodes had once cast himself as a revolutionary in waiting, he now saw his role as defending the president. He had put out a call for his followers to protect the country against what he was calling an “insurrection.” The unrest, he told me, was the latest attempt to undermine Donald Trump.

In Trump, the Patriot movement believed it had an ally in the White House for the first time. In 2016, when Trump had warned of election fraud, Rhodes put out a call for members to quietly monitor polling stations.

When Trump warned of an invasion by undocumented immigrants, Rhodes traveled to the southern border with an Oath Keepers patrol. He sent members to “protect” Trump supporters from the protesters at his rallies and appeared in the VIP section at one of them, standing in the front row in a black Oath Keepers shirt.

When Trump warned of the potential for civil war at the start of the impeachment inquiry last fall, Rhodes voiced his assent on Twitter. “This is the truth,” he wrote. “This is where we are.”

The race riots have happened since then.

As Rhodes told the people in the crowd to be ready for war, I sized them up. Some looked hardened, but many more did not. One man rested a hand on a cane. When Rhodes asked what their concerns were, several said they feared that rioters would show up in their neighborhoods.

His comments became more inflammatory as he began to warn about antifa and protesters. “They are insurrectionists, and we have to suppress that insurrection,” he said. “Eventually they’re going to be using IEDs.”

“Us old vets and younger ones are going to end up having to kill these young kids,” he concluded. “And they’re going to die believing they were fighting Nazis.”

It could start with a protest gone wrong, he said, or shots from a provocateur. Someone mentioned a young mother in Indiana who’d been shot and killed after reportedly shouting “All lives matter” during an argument with strangers.

“We talk about being attacked,” another man said. “Now, I have a question. What if you’re attacked in subtle and consistent ways over a period of time?”

This was a different kind of crowd than Rhodes had drawn to the VFW hall. Many were in their 20s and 30s and had come in uniforms—some Three Percenters wore black T‑shirts and camouflage pants, and members of another group stood together in matching woodland fatigues. From the latter, a man climbed onto the flatbed and introduced himself as Joe Klemm, the leader of a new militia called the Ridge Runners.

He was a 29-year-old former marine and spoke with a boom that brought the crowd to attention. “I’ve seen this coming since I was in the military,” he said. “For far too long, we’ve given a little bit here and there in the interest of peace. But I will tell you that peace is not that sweet. Life is not that dear. I’d rather die than not live free.”

“Hoo-ah,” some people cheered.

“It’s going to change in November,” Klemm continued. “I follow the Constitution. We demand that the rest of you do the same. We demand that our police officers do the same. We’re going to make these people fear us again. We should have been shooting a long time ago instead of standing off to the side.”

“Are you willing to lose your lives?” he asked. “Are you willing to lose the lives of your loved ones—maybe see one of your loved ones ripped apart right next to you?”

Guardian: ‘Our worst nightmare’: will militias heed Trump’s call to watch the polls?

In the final minutes of last week’s televised presidential debate, a few days before he tested positive for Covid-19, Donald Trump was asked by the moderator, Chris Wallace, whether he would call on his supporters to stay calm and desist from civil unrest in the immediate aftermath of next month’s election.

Trump pointedly declined the invitation. Instead, he replied: “I’m urging my supporters to go into the polls and watch very carefully, because that’s what has to happen. I’m urging them to do it.”

For those who monitor the activities of far-right militia groups and white-supremacist paramilitaries, Trump’s remarks were as welcome as jet fuel being used to quell a wildfire.

“The militias will absolutely seize on [Trump’s comments],” said Steven Gardiner, who tracks militias at the progressive thinktank Political Research Associates. “The possibility of armed factions with military-style rifles showing up at polling places is very troubling.”

FBI background checks – a direct indicator of gun sales – almost doubled year-on-year this summer, a reflection of the jitters that abound. As America arms itself, deadly weaponry is increasingly finding its way on to the streets, borne by self-styled private militias and culminating in violent clashes that have caused bloodshed in several US cities.

With the most ferociously-contested presidential election in modern times now less than a month away, there are signs that heavily-armed militia groups, many of them finely attuned to Trump’s every whim, are setting their sights on the ballot.

Burghart’s research group has been tracking the escalation of militia activity especially in key swing states. In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in particular, groups have been detected discussing what they call “voter integrity” efforts on polling day.

“We anticipate that after Trump’s call to arms at last week’s debate we’ll see a lot more activity from here,” Burghart said.

In Montana, a popular base for libertarians and militia members, there are similar signs of militia groups assiduously retweeting Trump’s falsehoods about mail-in voting fraud, circulating the lies widely among themselves.

Burghart’s research group has been tracking the escalation of militia activity especially in key swing states. In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in particular, groups have been detected discussing what they call “voter integrity” efforts on polling day.

“We anticipate that after Trump’s call to arms at last week’s debate we’ll see a lot more activity from here,” Burghart said.

In Montana, a popular base for libertarians and militia members, there are similar signs of militia groups assiduously retweeting Trump’s falsehoods about mail-in voting fraud, circulating the lies widely among themselves.

It’s not just the rightwing paramilitaries that pose a mounting danger. Anti-fascist and radical left groups have shown a growing recourse to guns too, as was seen with the shooting by a self-styled anti-fascist activist, later himself killed by police, of a member of the pro-Trump group Patriot Prayer in Portland last month.

The arming of African American and anti-fascist factions has contributed to the volatility of the times. But the overwhelming bulk of militia activity falls firmly on the other side of the country’s widening racial divide – with the overwhelmingly white far-right.

It’s a daunting task, made none the easier by Trump. “When he talks about ‘poll watching’ and fraud, and refuses to urge his followers not to engage in civil unrest, that’s a thinly-veiled dog-whistle for armed groups to coalesce.”

It isn’t just an election at stake in the US. It isn’t just democracy at stake.

And the risks are real. Reuters: F.B.I. Says Michigan Anti-Government Group Plotted to Kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer

Authorities charged 13 men, some of whom were accused of plotting to storm the State Capitol building and planning to start a civil war.

Storming the State Capitol. Instigating a civil war. Abducting a sitting governor ahead of the presidential election.

Those were among the plots described by federal and state officials in Michigan on Thursday as they announced terrorism, conspiracy and weapons charges against 13 men. At least six of them, officials said, had hatched a detailed plan to kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat who has become a focal point of anti-government views and anger over coronavirus control measures.

The men spied on Ms. Whitmer’s vacation home in August and September, even looking under a highway bridge for places they could place and detonate a bomb to distract the authorities, the F.B.I. said. They indicated that they wanted to take Ms. Whitmer hostage before the election in November, and one man said they should take her to a “secure location” in Wisconsin for a “trial,” Richard J. Trask II, an F.B.I. special agent, said in the criminal complaint.

That’s quite alarming. Sadly, predictably, the stoker-in-chief continues fomenting devision.

And:

It could become a very ugly election, and it could also get a lot worse, especially if Trump loses the election.

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68 Comments

  1. artcroft

     /  10th October 2020

    Fake news. According to the local sheriff those nice milita men were just trying to arrest the Governor.

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  10th October 2020

      I knew it, Arty. It’s the difference between fine Chinese manufactured lead…and hillbilly buckshot.

      Reply
  2. Grasshopper

     /  10th October 2020

    Last election I bet $1000 Trump would win on paddypower and received a handsome payout. What all the legacy media pundits never point out is that Trump has ground game and this time has the incumbent advantage. 85% chance of winning versus stay at home hidin biden his time, Trump will win in a landslide.

    Reply
    • Blazer

       /  10th October 2020

      How much you betting this time then?

      Reply
    • Duker

       /  10th October 2020

      What incumbancy?
      Obama 2008 53% pop vote and electoral college 365-173

      2016 it was 51% and 332-206

      Trump margin was much finer than Obamas resounding win in 2008 to give him some hedging room come re-election time. And there is no 911 that helped George Bush
      Trump is heading for a hiding on the popular vote , worse than last time , and its only takes a small change in a few states for him to lose in the College as well.

      The real truth is that he might put $20 on Trump to win this time…..

      Reply
  3. lurcher1948

     /  10th October 2020

    They all have the same appearance, facial hair,and long arms with knuckles dragging,notice the sheriff had his hands in his pockets(long hands ,big knuckles

    Reply
  4. Meet the Americans ‘standing by’ for possible election violence

    Some Americans worried about possible violence after the U.S. presidential election are forming community watch groups, others are working on conflict de-escalation and still others are purchasing guns, according to two dozen voters, online groups and data surveyed by Reuters.

    A common fear is that the Nov. 3 contest between President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden remains undecided, leading to protests that could escalate into civil unrest, or even sectarian conflict.

    Firearm sales hit a monthly record of 3.9 million in June, according to FBI data. Ammunition for AR-15-style rifles is on back order in states like Washington and Colorado.

    The primary “terrorist threat” facing the United States, according to an Oct. 6 Department of Homeland Security report, are lone offenders and small domestic extremist cells who may act out grievances.

    An October poll by political scientists including Lee Drutman of the New America think tank published in Politico found around a third of Americans justified violence to advance political goals, double the number in December 2019.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-violence/meet-the-americans-standing-by-for-possible-election-violence-idUSKBN26U15I

    Reply
    • Fight4nz

       /  10th October 2020

      All the hallmarks of a successful Presidency.

      Reply
      • Corky

         /  10th October 2020

        That situation could happen in NZ…except we can’t buy arms to protect ourselves. Knives, batons and taiaha make too much mess…it’s not cilivised.

        Reply
        • duperez

           /  10th October 2020

          And any disaffected mental midgets are not likely to have a leader encouraging them to hate people and provoke civil disorder.

          (I missed the bit about us not being able to buy guns. When did that come in?)

          Reply
          • Duker

             /  10th October 2020

            Shes wrong like she always is ….. the synapses arent firing…. anyway it is of course guns with large magazines over 10 rounds or high powered semi automatics ‘which we cant buy’

            Reply
            • Corky

               /  10th October 2020

              You aren’t the brightest hussy are you? Too busy listening to what other people say and what they write. To be fair, you have little choice.

            • Duker

               /  10th October 2020

              Sure Norman

          • Corky

             /  10th October 2020

            ”And any disaffected mental midgets are not likely to have a leader encouraging them to hate people and provoke civil disorder.”

            ????

            Reply
          • Corky

             /  10th October 2020

            ”(I missed the bit about us not being able to buy guns. When did that come in?)”

            Maybe you should read what I wrote and try not thinking about your reply before finishings reading my comments. Just a thought.

            Reply
        • Patzcuaro

           /  10th October 2020

          Maybe you should try voting first, you know we live in a democracy.

          Reply
          • Corky

             /  10th October 2020

            No we don’t. We live in a society labelled as a democracy. Try telling Maori they live in a democracy.

            Reply
            • Patzcuaro

               /  10th October 2020

              Well I think the people of Belarus would be happy to have a democracy like ours where their votes actual count. In your hooks are there any democracies?

            • Corky

               /  10th October 2020

              I’m sure they would. I’m not dissing NZ. Comparative wise we have a great country. However, the only thing free is the right to vote and change gummints. After that the UN, bureaucracy, councils and power take over.

              If we had a democracy we wouldn’t be debating free speech ( bar libel).

              We wouldn’t be debating euthanasia.

              Ditto cannabis reform.

              Ditto the right to own guns for protection.

              I do admit some of these things nay be debated under the true meaning of the different types of democracy.

              However, the bottom line is we are repressed IN MY OPINION.

            • Griff.

               /  10th October 2020

              In your mind we may be repressed in this country .
              You, as often pointed out have no idea at all about anything.

              NZ is consistently rated as one of the most free nations in the world.

              Democracy Index Economist Intelligence Unit
              1 Norway 9.87
              2 Iceland 9.58 1
              3 Sweden 9.39
              4 New Zealand 9.26
              5 Finland 9.25
              25 United States 7.96

              Economic-Freedom index fraserinstitute
              1 Hong Kong 8.91
              2 Singapore 8.71
              3 New Zealand 8.50
              4 Switzerland 8.40
              12 United States

              Economic freedom Heritage Institute.
              1 Singapore
              2 Hong Kong
              3 New Zealand
              17 United States

              Human Freedom Index Cato Institute
              New Zealand 1 8.89
              Switzerland 2 8.79
              Hong Kong 3 8.78
              Australia 4 8.58
              United States 15

              It is interesting to note that only three country’s score as free on all measures in this chart of the most often quoted indexes.
              New Zealand .
              Ireland .
              Switzerland .
              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_freedom_indices

              It is also interesting to note that country’s that score high in freedom are often also social democracy’s like NZ and Scandinavia .
              Something ignorant idiots that believe Right Wing Conservative USA exceptionalism propaganda can not understand .

              ps no links because it would get held up in moderation Use google.

            • Corky

               /  10th October 2020

              ”In your mind we may be repressed in this country .
              You, as often pointed out have no idea at all about anything.”

              Yes, so you keep telling me. You are a nasty piece of work…but I don’t hold that against you.

              Comparative:

              ”adjective
              Measured or judged by estimating the similarity or dissimilarity between one thing and another.”

              Have you ever wondered what those stats are based on and how they are calculated?

              And whether the same criticism as you apply to me could apply to others?

            • Griff.

               /  11th October 2020

              Have you ever wondered what those stats are based on and how they are calculated?

              Unlike you I have looked into things rather than just making stuff up.
              Yes they all have a certain amount of objectivity in their ratings .

              Cato and Heritage are leading Libertarian think tanks.
              Two of the ratings come from different groups of libertarian academics who judge NZ one of the most free nations on earth against their libertarian ideals.

              What you think is freedom is freedum.
              Bullshite propaganda for the ignorant suckers in the mostly free USA .

            • Patzcuaro

               /  11th October 2020

              @ Corky at some point you just have accept societies norms or find somewhere that has norms more to your taste.

            • Corky

               /  11th October 2020

              ”Cato and Heritage are leading Libertarian think tanks.”

              Might pay to check that again. Skimming an article is not studying it.

              ”The Index of Freedom in the World was a predecessor to the Human Freedom Index. It measured classical civil liberties and was published in 2013 by Canada’s Fraser Institute, Germany’s Liberales Institute, and the U.S. Cato Institute.[2] It is not currently included in the table below.”

              Yep, see above.

              ”Yes they all have a certain amount of objectivity in their ratings .”

              I’m sure there is. But as any idiot would know a certain amount of subjective assessment would also be present, Libertarian or not.

              An example:

              The often quoted: More than 300 NZers will die from smoking in a year.

              ”Two of the ratings come from different groups of libertarian academics who judge NZ one of the most free nations on earth against their libertarian ideals.”

              That was never in doubt…as I related in my comments. And anyway what is someone like you doing relying Libertarian research?

              ”What you think is freedom is freedum.
              Bullshite propaganda for the ignorant suckers in the mostly free USA ”.

              Yep, Im sure you are wrong…for obvious reasons.

              Patzcuaro / 11th October 2020

              @ Corky at some point you just have accept societies norms or find somewhere that has norms more to your taste.

              As a Libertarian I WILL NEVER ACCEPT SOCIETIES norms when such norms tell me I can’t smoke herb, kill myself if I’m chronically ill, or pay fugging councils or the gummint lots of money to build a home on my property or rent a dwelling out as a flat

              It’s people like you who send us Libertarians around the twist. Our supposed cage of freedom is so well decorated you can’t see it’s still a cage.

              To be fair, you do get a chance to choose the colour scheme every three years.

              That’s why I don’t vote. It makes no difference in reality.

            • Griff.

               /  11th October 2020

              I can not make any sense of Corky’s comment other than he got pawned badly for claiming NZ is a repressed society and is now just gibbering unconnected rubbish.

              Dealing with the fractally wrong
              Debating a person who is fractally wrong leads to infinite regress, as every refutation you make of that person’s opinions will lead to a rejoinder, full of half-truths, leaps of poor logic, and outright lies, which requires just as much refutation to debunk as the first one—kind of like a recursive Gish Gallop, where each point both surrounds and is surrounded by an equally wrong argument. It is worth noting that being fractally wrong can be handy for the losing side in a public debate, since you are likely to leave your opponent looking baffled and unable to deal with each level of wrongness.

              It is as impossible to convince a fractally wrong person of anything as it is to walk around the edge of the Mandelbrot set in finite time.

              While arguing with these people can be amusing at times, we suggest that if you ever get embroiled in a discussion with a fractally wrong person on the Internet—in mailing lists, newsgroups, or forums—your best bet is to say your piece once and ignore any replies, thus saving yourself time.

              https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Fractal_wrongness

            • Corky

               /  11th October 2020

              I think any sane person can see through your bluster, Griff. In fact, I’m bookmarking this exchange should you want to come at me again.
              There’s a name for posters like you. Unfortuantely I can’t use it because I will be moderated.

  5. We are incredibly lucky that no one will be killed during our elections, and that we don’t have an electoral college disenfranchising voters by taking their votes away from them.

    Reply
  6. Alan Wilkinson

     /  10th October 2020

    It’s been in a mostly non-violent state of civil war since the mid term elections set up a deadlocked government.

    For all the shouting and screaming the US covid outcomes are little different from most of Europe. The only difference is the level of debate, confrontation and blame being thrown around.

    This will continue until a medical solution arrives or the pandemic runs its course. I don’t see the election outcome making much difference except the media will switch to backing the government if Democrats win.

    Reply
    • artcroft

       /  10th October 2020

      My theory is that what we need is a good old war. Negative interest rates show there is no demand out there for investment. All the entrepreneurs who might take out debt to invest, are worried they won’t be able to sell their products due to a lack of demand, so interest rates are negative (globally – not just in NZ). How do you stimulate demand. Destroy the means of production. A good old fashioned ding dong between north and south in the US would solve a lot of problems.

      Saddle up Corky – this is your chance to ride.

      Reply
      • Duker

         /  10th October 2020

        Michigan is about as far north as you can get…. Barry County is around 90% republican…these poor and deprived semi rural areas have more to lose if their shops and schools are burnt in any unrest
        have you seen the pictures of these hicks .they stand out a mile in the larger urban areas, wouldnt last 15 min.

        Reply
      • Corky

         /  10th October 2020

        Economics 101, Arty. Hot lead and hot sheilas making missiles would spur the US economy.
        Why not certain states sponsored by by foreign nations should the economy slow again?
        South Carolina could become South Moscow.

        There’s more to you than your chaps, Arty.

        Reply
      • Patzcuaro

         /  10th October 2020

        If there is a civil war in the US it won’t be North vs South, it will be rural vs urban.

        Reply
  7. duperez

     /  10th October 2020

    The ex-FBI Special Agent on a Joint Terrorism Task Force reflects on the reaction if the men who were in the group which occupied the Capitol in Lansing Michigan in April who have been arrested in the past few days, had turned out to be ISIS operatives.

    I am quite sure in that event there would have been calls, again, in places like this, that Muslims be stopped from coming into New Zealand. A renewed vociferous hatefest would start. I’ll wait to see if there are calls to ban white American males from coming here on the evidence (alleged) of some with screws loose.

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  10th October 2020

      ”The ex-FBI Special Agent on a Joint Terrorism Task Force reflects on the reaction if the men who were in the group which occupied the Capitol in Lansing Michigan in April who have been arrested in the past few days, had turned out to be ISIS operatives.”

      Of course the reaction would have been different. Muslims aren’t native to America, and are a real problem worldwide. Those good ole boys are a lesser problem and home grown.White Power problems are a native problem. Muslim problems are imported.

      ”I am quite sure in that event there would have been calls, again, in places like this, that Muslims be stopped from coming into New Zealand.”

      Only by a minority. I would say 95% of Kiwis have no problem with Muslim immigration.
      Incidentally, I have been calling for Muslim immigration to be banned since 2008. That’s long before you even considered Islam was a problem; apart from a few nuts who flew a plane into the TTowers.

      ”I’ll wait to see if there are calls to ban white American males from coming here on the evidence (alleged) of some with screws loose. ”

      I think the operative world is”some.” You obviously haven’t taken time to understand how Islam works. I have. I the first thing I found out is Muslims measure time differently to us.
      They take a every long view. If it takes 10,000 years to rule the world, that’s fine.

      Westerns take this view thus: we have a problem. Let’s quantify the problem. Let’s solve the problem. Problem solved, let’s move on.

      Guess what? Muslims don’t share your worldview.

      Conclusion: Comparing White Power with Jihad is futile and infantile.

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3246453/We-going-majority-soon-Furious-Muslim-parents-taunt-New-Jersey-school-board-religious-holiday-closure.html

      Reply
      • That headline is misleading; one person said that they were going to be the majority soon, and the parents and children were distressed, not taunting the board. The Daily Mail is a bit of a drama queen in that way.

        It’s impossible to generalise about millions of people from so small a sample.

        Reply
  8. duperez

     /  10th October 2020

    Christians aren’t native to America either and are a real problem worldwide.

    Just showing that some don’t share your worldview.

    Reply
    • Corky

       /  10th October 2020

      ”Christians aren’t native to America either and are a real problem worldwide.”

      Expand on that. Start with how many people Christains have killed recently.

      Reply
      • Griff.

         /  10th October 2020

        War on terror
        SUMMARY
        Over 801,000 people have died due to direct war violence, and several times as many indirectly
        Over 335,000 civilians have been killed as a result of the fighting
        37 million — the number of war refugees and displaced persons
        The US federal price tag for the post-9/11 wars is over $6.4 trillion dollars
        The US government is conducting counterterror activities in 80 countries
        The wars have been accompanied by violations of human rights and civil liberties, in the US and abroad

        https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/

        Conservative USA “Christians” are a shit stain on the fabric of civilization.

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  10th October 2020

          ”War on terror
          SUMMARY
          Over 801,000 people have died due to direct war violence, and several times as many indirectly”

          We can stop RIGHT there. That negates the rest of your argument. Someone else can tell you why. I don’t have the time.

          KFC, here I come. The chips are terrible. No more shoestrings.

          Reply
          • Corky

             /  10th October 2020

            Checked a few stories out for 2020. They were kosher. Obviously I can’t check them all.

            These stories seem to just be for 2020.

            Yet someone wants me to believe these stories aren’t true. That the US military is a psuedo Christian crusuade. That Conservative USA “Christians” are a shit stain on the fabric of civilization.

            https://www.jihadwatch.org/

            Anyone is free to post similar stories of Christian terrorism..or terror!

            Reply
            • Duker

               /  10th October 2020

              Armenia v Azerbaijan is a Christian v Muslim conflict…been going for centuries with lapse during the Soviet period but some flareups
              You asked how many Christian’s killed recently….it’s happening both sides as we speak

      • duperez

         /  10th October 2020

        Happy to expand. You commented on my referral to an ex-FBI Special Agent Terrorism Task Force man reflecting on the reactions if the guys arrested for plotting to attack a Governor, who were in the group which occupied the Capitol in Lansing in April had been ISIS. If they’d managed to carry out their plan then been identified, the response would have been dramatic and I think it is reasonable to assume, very anti Muslim.

        You suggest the reaction would be different in that scenario because ‘Muslims aren’t native to America’ and are a ‘real problem worldwide.’

        To which I said ‘Christians aren’t native to America either.’ Isn’t that a fact? Because Muslims aren’t ‘native to America’ they are more of a problem? If some 5th generation American, a Muslim from somewhere on the globe commits a crime, it’s somehow different than a 5th generation Catholic American ex Ireland committing a crime?

        You said Muslims don’t share my world view. (You don’t know that.) I don’t share your worldview from what I’ve seen. I am very pleased and proud of that. This little pen picture is just more evidence of that.

        Reply
        • Corky

           /  10th October 2020

          I asked you to start with this. Please don’t skip it.

          ”Expand on that. Start with how many people Christains have killed recently.”

          The rest is quite eaily answered after you answer my question. For example”

          ”You said Muslims don’t share my world view. (You don’t know that.) I don’t share your worldview from what I’ve seen. I am very pleased and proud of that. This little pen picture is just more evidence of that.”

          Of course Muslims don’t share your worldview. If they did they would be Infidels who believe in womens rights and guy rights. Are you trying to take the piss?

          ”I don’t share your worldview from what I’ve seen.”

          That would be correct. However, in my defence, I only have a worldview for posting purposes. My real view of the world would be percieved by you as something out of a fanasty novel.

          Suffice to say I see the world in terms of energy. Hence some of the ususual terminoloy I use in my posts

          Reply
          • Corky

             /  10th October 2020

            *gay

            Reply
            • The idea that all Muslims oppose women’s rights and regard this as an ‘infidel’ thing is absurd; there are women politicians in Muslim countries and women who have careers like doctors. It’s ridiculous to act as if they all think alike.

          • duperez

             /  11th October 2020

            If the men arrested in Michigan for their plot had been Muslim and had been filmed armed to the teeth in the Capitol in Lansing months back, the whirl would be going crazy about Muslim terrorists.

            People would say Muslims should not be allowed in to the US. Some would say even they shouldn’t be allowed there because they are not native and have a ‘different worldview.’

            They weren’t Muslim. I am yet to hear someone say white men should no be allowed into the USA, or Christians, or people whose forebears came from Ireland or Poland.

            You divert itv to how many people Christians have killed recently as if its a contest – a sort of the less kills the more you’re a winner sort of approach.

            America is a good Christian country. The seam is runs deep, rich, is omnipresent. It could even be called oppressive.

            You want to know how many the Christians have killed to see if they have more rights to be in America? My suggestion is to start here:

            https://www.statista.com/statistics/191134/reported-murder-and-nonnegligent-manslaughter-cases-in-the-us-since-1990/

            I think it would be reasonable to say the majority would be caused by those claiming to be Christians.

            Reply
            • That’s quite possible given the number of Americans who claim to be Christian.We have seen accounts of family murders where the family have been churchgoers, inc. the murderer.

              It’s pointless to use this episode to bash Muslims and divert attention from the fact that these men were white Americans.

  9. Alan Wilkinson

     /  10th October 2020

    To dramatise slightly..

    If the Republicans win there will be screams and then gunshots. If the Democrats win there will be gunshots and then screams.

    Reply
  10. Alan Wilkinson

     /  10th October 2020

    A breath of fresh air, a political report that doesn’t feel compelled to pass judgement and ram it down your throat. No byline unfortunately.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-president-donald-trump-givess-first-on-camera-interview-since-covid-19-infection/FORPFUZCSD26VRF257HYK7H3Z4/

    Reply
  11. Alan Wilkinson

     /  10th October 2020

    I don’t know if it is significant but the last couple of days of state polls reported by RCP show quite a turnaround from Biden to Trump. Still may not be the walkover the Left hope for and expect.

    Reply
    • artcroft

       /  10th October 2020

      What polls? 538 has Biden ahead by 10%. Check out KB and you see the DPF is equating this with a landslide for Biden.

      Get ready for the biggest attempted heist in history as Trump goes for gold and demands Republican states, send republican electors to the electoral college to vote for Trump despite the election results. The 14th of Dec 2020 is America’s date with destiny.

      Reply
      • Alan Wilkinson

         /  10th October 2020
        Reply
        • Patzcuaro

           /  11th October 2020

          At present 538 has Pennsylvania as the tipping point state so red there would be important. If you look at polling history there have been a smattering of red figures for Arizona and Florida but predominantly blue numbers. Whereas when you look at the history for Texas & Georgia the numbers have tended to be red with a smattering of blue. Cook PVIs are PA 0, FL R+2, AZ R+5, GA R+5 & TX R+8, so nothing unusual there but the sunbelt states are tending blue.

          At present Trump is not doing much to retain over 60s in the sunbelt states or anywhere else who he won in 2016.

          Reply
        • Patzcuaro

           /  11th October 2020

          He is a teaser for you.

          Reply
      • Fight4nz

         /  10th October 2020

        Which is part of why a little voice says to me that this whole “President has Covid “President beats Covid “ is a total sham, staged to turn around polls.

        Reply
        • Alan Wilkinson

           /  10th October 2020

          For sure Trump has to play it as the conqueror. No other political option in present circumstances.

          His opponents are equally trying to play him as a loser and had a free run while he was hospitalised so now he is fighting back. Polls may just be tracking that reality.

          Reply
          • Fight4nz

             /  11th October 2020

            Did he actually have it?

            Reply
            • Alan Wilkinson

               /  11th October 2020

              Oh yes. Too disruptive for his campaign to have been deliberately faked.

            • Fight4nz

               /  11th October 2020

              He did appear from hospital every day didn’t he? Or was it just tweets?
              Calculated risk?
              With dwindling polls only way to get rapid rebound.

            • Duker

               /  11th October 2020

              So many others in WH and the gatherings there have tested positive including his wife which is what you would expect for an infectious disease once it reached there.
              The Republican senator Mitch McConnell has been saying that he could see the laxity at the WH and hadnt been there since early August because of that. hes even older at 78.

    • Duker

       /  10th October 2020

      Rcp has Trump and Biden almost equal in Georgia…..Trump will likely win but he should be miles ahead…Trump had no hope if Georgia is in play
      The reputable pollsters have Biden ahead in some states Trump should have in his pocket by now

      Reply
  12. Alan Wilkinson

     /  10th October 2020

    Lots of activity on the covid antigen therapies. These could be the way out of the mess.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-astrazeneca-idUSKBN26V054

    Reply
  13. Tom Hunter

     /  11th October 2020

    Oh dear – another anti-Trump story bites the dust. First with this.

    And now with this…

    One of alleged plotters, 23-year-old Daniel Harris, attended a Black Lives Matter protest in June, telling the Oakland County Times he was upset about the killing of George Floyd and police violence.

    I doubt any apology will be forthcoming from Governor Whitmer, or any other Democrat for that matter. And this news story will naturally drop like a stone, just as so many others have.

    It’s also a good indication that Antifa/BLM are not on the side of the Democrats, which makes the hands-off attitude towards them by so many Democrat mayors even more stupid than normal.

    Reply
  14. Tom Hunter

     /  11th October 2020

    Oh and this should not be forgotten…

    Glenn Greenwald is noRight-winger, let alone a Republican, let alone a Trump supporter.

    No, he’s more Left than most of the US Democrat Party and has proved that over twenty years of hard-line criticism of the USA, especially in its wars.

    But I get it: for a chunk of fanatics anything is acceptable to get rid of Trump, as well as gaslighting the Antifa/BLM riots and projecting their evil on to the Right.

    Reply

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